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Old 01-21-2009, 05:25 PM   #31
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

STEPANEK-Berrer set betting 3-1 @3.80, 1 unit
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Old 01-21-2009, 06:07 PM   #32
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

Nighty night my darling braggers....

Both lots taken yesterday in the morning....

Sela at a price of 2.05,got nice retrieving capabilities,cognizant of Hanescues pros and cons and in both meetings had competitive edge but for obscure choke during last year RG also posesses great stamina to compete in the morning under blasting 40C sun.....

Verdasco with -7 HC.....Top 10 contender who has risen his form dramatically and who is radiant with confidence to oppose obscure fading veteran whose biggest asset and merit is his determination and stubborness, that was enough to surpass ugly Ukrainian who has simply gifted a won match to Arnaud, doubt that Fernando, who has facilitated his mental consistancy recently, will be in the same charity mood....immense difference in form and overall class at a current moment....
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Old 01-21-2009, 06:28 PM   #33
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by superboy2006 View Post
Nighty night my darling braggers....

Both lots taken yesterday in the morning....

Sela at a price of 2.05,got nice retrieving capabilities,cognizant of Hanescues pros and cons and in both meetings had competitive edge but for obscure choke during last year RG also posesses great stamina to compete in the morning under blasting 40C sun.....

Verdasco with -7 HC.....Top 10 contender who has risen his form dramatically and who is radiant with confidence to oppose obscure fading veteran whose biggest asset and merit is his determination and stubborness, that was enough to surpass ugly Ukrainian who has simply gifted a won match to Arnaud, doubt that Fernando, who has facilitated his mental consistancy recently, will be in the same charity mood....immense difference in form and overall class at a current moment....

Your making big improvemnts with your English, one thing though this would of sounded better radianting with confidence

Fuck me even using words like cognizant
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Old 01-21-2009, 06:33 PM   #34
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

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Originally Posted by malcho View Post
Why Lisicki over Stosur?

My biggest bet today is Stosur over Lisicki. I think Samantha is a bit better player (head-to-head and a bit better form), but as we have seen this morning in Chakvetadze-Dokić match and also in young Tomić's matches, players that play for Australia are a bit better on this tournament than ussual.
Stosur - Lisicki match will be played on Rod Laver Arena and I can't see Sabine beating Samantha.
I was on Dokic but no chance i would be on Stosur, i think its a 50-50 match but the odds are to good to turn down Lisicki
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Old 01-21-2009, 06:51 PM   #35
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryan23 View Post
Your making big improvemnts with your English, one thing though this would of sounded better radianting with confidence

Fuck me even using words like cognizant
Thank you for the recognition of the marvellous cogniton of English language of mine,my little mordant Ryan...

I assume that you could have fucked yourself to the distraction if you had been "cognizant" of the amount of intricate words i permanently utilize......
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Old 01-21-2009, 06:52 PM   #36
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by superboy2006 View Post
Thank you for the recognition of the marvellous cogniton of English language of mine,my little mordant Ryan...

I assume that you could have fucked yourself to the distraction if you had been "cognizant" of the amount of intricate words i permanently utilize......
brilliant!!!!!!!!!
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Old 01-21-2009, 07:22 PM   #37
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Ancic to beat Karlovic - $1.83

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Old 01-21-2009, 07:22 PM   #38
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

Gonzalez @ 1.27. Damn, i've expected something like 1.45+.
Really nothing interesting today. I will try some lays in-running.
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Old 01-21-2009, 07:26 PM   #39
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

K.Bondarenko x Gonzo x Haas @2.38

GL
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it would be a miracle to win 2 days in a row:
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Old 01-21-2009, 07:31 PM   #40
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

Day 4 and after making yesterday 3 winning days out of 3 on the tennis, i intend to make it 4, still big favs so value it difficult to be found but here are a few bets:

2009 MTF Record 20-13 (+23.38 units)

Guccione +5.5 games @ 1.88 4 units
lay simon @ 1.25 (back guccione at 5) 1.25 units
hanescu @ 2.26 3 units
canas + 5.5 games @ 2.34 (unmatched) 3 units
ancic @ 1.71 4.5 units
andreev @ 2.64 2.75 units

going for the dogs to win and keep it close today

good luck all.
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Old 01-21-2009, 07:42 PM   #41
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I'm nastily tempted by Stefano Koubek...
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Old 01-21-2009, 08:07 PM   #42
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MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 15-9 (+$7014.00)

***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays

(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)

I ended up losing $1800 yesterday and now I'm a little pissed off at how things have gone the last few days. I know betting on Grand Slams is a total crapshoot because some of these guys just can't handle it but I did make some very stupid wagers, the first being a wager against a Slam guy like Baghdatis and the second being a wager against Robredo. Today is a new day, it's the end of the second round and I'm looking to cash in big from here to the end of the tournament. Like I said before, if you follow me all season, you make big money, that's a promise guys. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.

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Thursday, January 22



Australian Open - Round of 64



Dudi Sela 1.82 over Victor Hanescu ($1500 to win $1230)

Gotta love these odds here guys and I think Sela is going to destroy Hanescu in this matchup. These guys met each other twice in 2008 and both times Sela was a huge problem for Hanescu who could not keep up with the young Israeli. The players first met in May at the US Open in the first round and Hanescu came out on top but it five sets and the Romanian was down two sets at some point that match. That was on clay and this is on hardcourts, very different story. The two players met once again in October in Moscow on the indoor hardcourts, a much more favorable spot for Sela who ended up winning a three set battle but who took the first and third sets with a lot of ease. It has become quite evident that Sela's style does not suit Hanescu at all and with the extreme heat beaming down on the courts in this one, I see the same result as the Moscow tournament. Sela is another one of those players who had to qualify for the main draw of this tournament and he has dropped only 2 sets out of the 8 he has played so far and is coming off an opening round win over Schuettler. Did you all know that back in September, Sela was a finalist in ATP Beijing where he lost to Andy Roddick after beating Devilder, Ferrer, Robredo and Schuettler. That is some very impressive stuff. Hanescu on the other hand looked awful in his opening round match against Hernych, despite coming from two sets down and needed three tiebreak wins to reach the next round. That's just awful and Sela is not going to keep him around that long if he plays the same way this time. Hanescu looked terrible last week as well in Auckland as he was bounced in the first round by an out of shape Juan Monaco and I just don't get why everyone is backing him here. Hanescu is 2-5 lifetime at the Australian Open having won only twice in the first round. How can you bet on that? Sela has a 10-3 lifetime record at the Australian Open (including qualifying matches) and for those of you who have already forgotten about this, Sela pushed Karlovic to his limits last year and he pushed Marat Safin even harder in 2007 losing that match in five sets. I like the way he has played here in the past. It's also important to know that Dudi Sela is 31-17 over the last 12 months on hardcourts while Victor Hanescu is only 7-8 on hardcourts over the last 12 months. Sela not only has the experience to win this tournament and reach his first third round ever but he also has the confidence of knowing he can beat Hanescu (something he has done in the past) and I think Sela is going to win this match with ease. Hanescu is the better server but Sela has a good return game and Hanescu's serve has yet to bother him in either one of their meetings. Sela doesn't have the best serve in the world but Hanescu is a horrendous returner and Sela should have his way set in and set out in this match. TAKE SELA TO THE BANK FOR ONE MORE ROUND!!!





Mario Ancic 1.67 over Ivo Karlovic ($5000 to win $3350)

Is this some kind of joke or what? Which idiot decided to give us Ancic at this price in this match? Unless I am missing something this is going to be a pretty big wager for and I fully expect to come out of this thing with a win here. History has it that Ivo is going to win this match because Mario has never been able to understand Karlovic's serve and that has always been a problem for Ancic who has perhaps been too nice to Ivo in past matchups. Well no more mister nice guy. Karlovic leads the head-to-head 3-1 but I think it's worth mentioning that Ancic was ranked #155 and #300 in two of his losses to Karlovic and those were a long time ago. They have not seen each other since the 2006 season and they have never played against each other in a Grand Slam event which should really change the perspective of things in a matchup like this. Karlovic comes into this match off a straight set win in the opening round over Gimeno-Travers but he looked horrendous in Chennai two weeks before this tournament losing to the #202 ranked player in the world in the quarter-final. There could not be a more out of form player than Karlovic as his last two matches of 2008 were first round losses in Lyon and Paris and his 2009 campaign has not gone much better. Ancic on the other hand struggled a little bit in his first round match against Wayne Odesnik (needing four sets to win) but Ancic looked smooth and he looked calm so I don't mind going huge on him here. He did beat both Malisse and Robredo last week in Sydney before losing to Djokovic in what looked to be a conservative performance and for those of you concerned with his ability to return big serves, Ancic had a great battle with Amer Delic in Brisbane and came out on top showing that he is in shape to fight and return serves. Anyone who bets against Ancic in this match has no brain as Ancic is a perfect 5-0 lifetime in second round matches at the Australian Open and he has played well too well here in the past to go against him. Karlovic on the other hand has a 7-7 lifetime record at the Australian Open and only once has he made it past the second round and that was in 2008 when all he had to do was beat Dudi Sela and Jamie Baker. Ancic is a lot better than either one of those guys and Karlovic is going to have all sorts of problems in this match. You would think a guy like Karlovic would love the outdoor hardcourts but he has played only 18 matches on this stuff in the last 12 months and has won 11 of those matches. Ancic was sick last year and didn't get much action in on the hardcourts (14 matches total in the last 12 months) but lifetime he has won 33 of his last 50 hardcourt matches and one thing is for sure, if he gets back to form in this tournament he has a very good chance of making it far. This is all about Ancic gettting that one or two breaks per set (one will do) because we all know Karlovic cannot return nor can he be broken. Even if this goes to tiebreaks Karlovic does not have great success on outdoor hardcourts and Ancic has too much skill to lose this match. ANCIC STRAIGHT TO THE BANK WITH THIS!!!





Ernest Gulbis 1.59 over Igor Andreev ($2500 to win $1475)

I was actually considering making this one of my largest wagers of the season but I like Ancic the most today and decided to hold back a little bit on this wager. This is the first time these two ever play against each other and a lot are surprised to have this kind of offer odds wise on Andreev. I have seen a few sheep drink the purple kool aid on Andreev and I think it's a huge mistake. Sure he is ranked #19 in the world right now and sure he has some big wins under his belt the last 12 months but we are talking about the hardcourts and Andreev will never be a good player on this stuff. My fellow Canadian Peter Polansky had a great run against Andreev in the opening round as he took the first two sets in his first ever Grand Slam match but then choked away the next two sets and let Andreev off for another day. Andreev played in Sydney the week before where he went crashing out in the second round against a qualifier Chardy and he also lost his first round match against Youzhny in ATP Doha a few weeks before that. He was in pretty good form last US Open where he made it to the Round of 16 but I don't what happened since and I don't think his style matches that of Gulbis who destroyed Albert Montanes in the first round of this tournament (straight sets win). Prior to that he was a second round victim in ATP Auckland to eventual winner Del Potro and he did manage to take the Champ to three sets which was impressive. Keep in mind that Gulbis beat Djokovic in ATP Brisbane the week before that before losing to PHM the next time around. Gulbis was impressive at the US Open as well despite only reaching the second round and I say impressive because he really pushed Andy Roddick to his full limits, a lot more than he expected to this early in the tourney, and Roddick needed four long sets to get the job done. The youngster has virtually no experience in this tournament because his only previous match was last year when he lost to Marat Safin in straight sets but who can blame him there? He has come a long way since that loss and is ready to move on. Andreev on the other hand is 6-5 lifetime at the Australian Open and he has reached the third round in the past but has been one of the most inconsistent players I can remember in a while. In 2006 he reached the third round and lost to Hrbaty. In 2007 he lost in the opening round to Vince Spadea!?!?! Last year he beat Pavel and Vliegen before losing to Gaquet in the third round. Safe enough to say he has his hands full against a good hardcourt player like Gulbis. I think the youngster has had some back luck on hardcourts which is why he is only 11-9 the last 12 months. Those nine losses however were against Juan Del Potro (as the #9 player in the world), Paul-Henri Mathieu (as the #31 player in the world), Andy Roddick (as the #8 player in the world), Nikolay Davydenko (as the #9 player in the world), Novak Djokovic (as the #3 player in the world), Jose Acasuso (as the #55 player in the world), Nikolay Davydenko (as the #4) player in the world), David Nalbandian (as the #7 player in the world) and the list goes on. You have to know that of Gulbis' last 8 losses on the hardcourt surface, 6 of them were against TOP 10 players and Gulbis has always been faced with tough opponents. Andreev looked completely out of sorts against Polansky and he is an easy fade in this round. We are talking about the same Andreev who almost lost to a Canadian playing his first ever Grand Slam match and the same Andreev who lost to Jeremy Chardy in the ATP Sydney event last week. Something is not right with him and I love the price for Gulbis here.





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Old 01-21-2009, 08:11 PM   #43
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

HANESCU over Sela @2.24, 3 units
HAAS to win 1st set over Cipolla @1.41, 5 units
Fognini-Almagro OVER 36,5 games @1.90, 2 units
GULBIS (-1,5 sets hand.) over Andreev @2.25, 2 units
KOUBEK (+6,5 games) over Monfils @1.90, 3 units
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Old 01-21-2009, 08:14 PM   #44
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

This multiple bet for me:

Butorac/Murray over Lapentti/Robredo @1.45
Simon-Guccione 4 or more sets @1.60
Karlovic-Ancic 4 or more sets @1.25
Hanescu-Sela 3 sets @3.30
K.Bondarenko-Dominguez Lino 2-0 @2.10
Kuznetsova-Malek 2-1 @4.00

Total odds: 80.39
Put 2,50 on this,let's risk
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Old 01-21-2009, 08:23 PM   #45
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Default Re: Cheap thrills Thursday

Fognini over Almagro

The Spanish mug needed 5 sets to beat the over-the-hill Massu so I don't see why he's such a short priced favourite. Fognini plays a very aggressive game these days and I don't see why he can't do well on hardcourts. He's a player who likes to feed of pace and I think he'll enjoy the match up with Almagro. It wouldn't surprise me if this was a 5 set marathon so I'll take the dog.

2u 3.65

Also
3-2 Fognini 0.5u at 10.0
3-2 Almagro 0.5u at 7


Cipolla +6.5 over Haas

Ok I'm taking a risk here because I didn't see Haas in the first round and he might be playing like the real Haas but Flavio is in great form and has the game to frustrate someone that should still be a bit rusty and wear him down with his unorthodox style.

3u at 2.0

Ancic over Karlovic

Mario has the proven pedigree here and if he's finally healthy again he should have a big advantage in terms of stamina. Main worry is that Ivo is probably the better player in breakers but a shithouse hc player in Gimeno got a lot of looks at Ivo's serve so Ancic should get his chances.

3u at 1.73

I'm in profit from mugtiples this week so I'll bring another

Gonzalez over Canas 1.27 x
Melzer over Beck 1.44 x
Tsonga over Ljubicic 1.17 x

Canas is finished as a top player I think and I don't see how he can cope with the Chilean's power here. Beck is quite a limited player who relies on a big serve as far as I know and Jurgen will enjoy the match-up. The Austrian bad boy also loves playing fellow lefties these days while Beck struggles. The best Ljubo can hope for here is to have an awesome serving performance and keep it close but even if he does, Jo should be too good on the big points. A rusty Ljubo won't be able to handle the power.

And I don't normally take others' tips but I'm gonna give Czink a try given Maconick's confidence and the fact Ivan is on too.
2u 2.63
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