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Old 01-19-2009, 06:10 PM   #16
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

Quote:
Originally Posted by ExcaliburII View Post
I will run to bank to deposit money.

Pavel over Murray
Schwank over Haas
Lapentti over Stepanek
Run to the bank? or do you mean in a click of a button?
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Old 01-19-2009, 06:20 PM   #17
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

5 1st round exits for Mugro.....
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Old 01-19-2009, 06:21 PM   #18
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackie Stephens View Post
Run to the bank? or do you mean in a click of a button?
does it matter?


Lapentti is a big fighter, he wont get kicked off the tournament easily, over 7 is ridiculous overpricing. You should check his GS all time activity
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Old 01-19-2009, 06:23 PM   #19
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

Looking forward to Mistaflava's bets for today
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Old 01-19-2009, 06:34 PM   #20
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

STAKHOVSKY over Clement @1.96, 4 units
HAAS to win 1st set over Schwank @1.61, 5 units
SELA over Schuettler @1.99, 3 units
FOGNINI over Golubev @2.66, 1 unit

more to come later
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Old 01-19-2009, 06:47 PM   #21
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

do you know anything about Fog's fitness OG?

That one tempted me but it's so long since he's played.
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:07 PM   #22
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

lapentti - sexy should be an interesting match if nico desides to show up. both of them got that finesse in their games and conditions should suit nico, but that loss from kadir put me off from playing the bigger bet on the hcap, just took a fun bet on lapentti str8 win, peanut stakes @7,50
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:15 PM   #23
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 12-4 (+$11474.00)

***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays

(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)

I made almost 15k for myself and investors in the NFL yesterday with bets on Arizona and a play of the year on Pittsburgh and to top that off I went 3-0 and made 4k in tennis so it was one of my best capping/betting days in a very long time. Let's keep this momentum going. Like I said before, you tail me all season, you make big money, that's a promise guys. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.

All my wagering is done at Pinnacle. All the best this season and if you have a problem with me or my style, LICK MY NUTS!

--------------------------------------




Tuesday, January 20



Australian Open - Round of 128



Andrey Golubev 1.57 over Fabio Fognini ($2500 to win $1425)

What do you know...we have yet another hidden gift in the plethora of matches this morning and I don't think we are going to have any trouble bringing Golubev as a winner. This is a matchup of two very young players who both have a bright future and this could very well be Golubev's breaking out party as he looks to reach his best ranking ever with a win here (currently sitting at #89 in the world). Fognini on the other has been ranked as high as #66 last summer but he has really fallen off since and I don't trust my money with that guy ever. These two have never faced each other and neither one of them really knows what it's like to play in a match like this. Having said that, Golubev got lucky and was part of the main draw of this tournament without having to quallify and I say that because he has not done well in qualies this season losing both first round qualifying matches in Brisbane and in Sydney. However those losses were against Luczak (local Aussie boy) and Korolev (much better suited for the hardcourts) so I don't fault him that much. This match should be a lot easier than either two of those matches. For those of you who already forgot GOLUBEV REACHED THE ATP ST PETERSBURG FINAL IN OCTOBER AND LOST TO ANDY MURRAY ON INDOOR HARDCOURTS. This kid has talent and he followed that up by winning a Challenger event in November on hardcourts so his experience on this stuff is good enough for me. Fognini on the other hand has not played a tennis match since last October in the ATP Lyon carpet tournament and he has not won a match since early September when he played in a clay court challeneger event. Safe enough to say Fognini sucks ass on hardcourts and this guy has not won a tennis match in almost 5 months now, let alone a match at a high level of tennis. If you want a test of how Fognini is going to do in this event, please take a look at his only Australian Open appearance which was in 2007 when he lost in the first round of qualifying against Michael Berrer who was ranked #156 at the time. Golubev has never played in the main draw here but he has won two qualifying matches in the last two tournaments, one against Navarro-Pastor and one against Gulbis (I believe he was an underdog in both matches). What this comes down to for me is that Golubev has played in 26 hardcourt matches the last 12 months and he has won 16 of those matches which is pretty damn good for an up and coming player. Fognini has played in only 11 hardcourt matches the last 12 months and he has won only 5 of those so believe me when I say you are going to make some money fading this kid. GOLUBEV IS WORTH THE PRICE HERE!





Dudi Sela 1.94 over Rainer Schuettler ($1000 to win $$940)

These are some might good odds we are getting guys and this could be one of the best matches to bet on (odds wise) in this opening round if you can find the winning side. So what this comes down to is an old player who only plays these tournaments because he gets a free pass every year against a 23 year old from Israel who is tabbed to be a journeyman for the rest of his career and who relies on matches like this to put food on his own table month in and month out. In other words they both suck but again I love the odds here and I don't think Sela is going to have any problems winning this match. What the hell was that by Schuettler in Chennai earlier this year? The guy comes out of nowhere and reaches the semi-finals but can we all look at his opponents for a second and realize that he beat the #206 ranked player in the world in the opening round, he beat the #125 ranked player in the world in the second round, he beat the #118 ranked player in the world in the third round and then he lost in the semis to the #202 ranked player in the world. So forget about those useless results. I have to admit Schuettler does come up with the some odd/good performances here and there and that is why he is so difficult to handicap sometimes but I don't think his game is worthy of backing against Sela. What I like about the young Israeli is that he is used to the heat, he is used to the courts and he should have the edge having already played in the qualifying tournament to get her. In the qualies he beat a bunch of nobodies but he won 6 of the 7 sets he played and looked pretty good (love the experience of playing on these courts). THE ONLY TWO TIMES DUDI SELA PLAYED IN THE MAIN DRAW OF THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN, HE WENT 2-0 IN OPENING ROUND MATCHES with wins over Srichaphan in 2007 and Martin Slanar in 2008. Schuettler on the other hand was a winner in the first round of the Australian Open last year when he beat fellow old man Arnaud Clement but just to let you all know, Schuettler reached the final of the Australian Open in 2003 but has since gone 2-3 in first round matches and I think his time has come and gone. You have to give the veteran some credit because he does maintain a consistent amount of matches on hardcouts having played 23 hardcourt matches the last 12 months and winning 12 of those matches. However, Sela is too young and I think too fast on this surface for Schuettler and the youngster should have no problems handling Schuettler's serve. Sela has played 47 matches on hardcourts the last 12 months to Schuettler's 23 and he has managed to win 30 of those matches so he does have the experience. Schuettler is done and there is nothing he can do about it. Had he had an easier opponent I would consider backing him but he is not winning this match and Sela should have no problems taking care of business. Cash money straight out of Israel for me.





Dieter Kindlmann 2.78 over Guillermo Canas ($1000 to win $1780)

Wow what the fuck is going on with the oddsmakers for this match. Do they seriously think Canas is this good at this stage to win this match and be favored by this much? We have not seen many upsets to date and the upsets usually start piling up on day two when those players feel the pressure of winning like the player from day one did. So on that note, I want to bring a few of you along with me on the German here despite the fact that he is ranked #229 in the world right now. Yes he is a lifetime journeyman but wtf is the deal with Canas and being favored by this much? RIDICULOUS if you ask me. First of all this juice monkey Canas was too busy injecting needle in his arms and legs to play in any tournaments to prepare for this event. He just doesn't care enough and has not played a tennis match since his opening round loss at TMS Paris back in November. CANAS HAS NOT WON A MAIN DRAW TENNIS MATCH SINCE OCTOBER WHERE HE BEAT SEPPI. HE IS 1-6 IN HIS LAST SEVEN MAIN DRAW MATCHES and I just don't know how some of you could ever back a player like this with those kinds of odds when he doesn't seem to give a rats ass about playing tennis anymore. His counterpart here probably won't have to do much to outlast this cheating piece of shit. Kindlmann looked great in the qualies and he should be warmed up for this match. I also like the fact that the German took the time to play in a Challenger event this year to at least half prepare himself for this type of match. I am telling you guys right now that Kindlmann is a lifetime journeyman but he does have what it takes to beat a very unprepared Guillermo Canas. The only other time the German reach the main draw of this event was back in 2005 and he went out in straight sets against the #8 seed Andre Agassi. I think he is going to be quite motivated to do better this time around and like I mentioned before I really like his chances. Canas has not played in the Australian Open since before his suspension for taking drugs and cheating so we can't really look at his past performances and think anything much of them (Round of 16 in 2004 and 2005) because he was cheating his entire career and all those matches won were with the help of steroids. Canas has played in only 14 hardcourt matches over the last 12 months and what needs to be know is that he won 8 of those matches and that's why is the favorite in this match. What also needs to be known is that Kindlmann, despite being a player that plays mostly in Challenger events, is 19-5 the last 12 months on hardcourts and he can play such a basic game that if Canas makes mistakes, the journeyman is going to make him pay. I said it before and I will say it again. Canas knows he is nothing without the drugs and he didn't even bother preparing for his first Australian Open match in almost four years. Kindlmann is by no means a good player but he will do enough to win this match. Canas probably needs money nowadays and seeing how this match is played on Court 21, nobody will be watching and he can probably get away with anything. GREAT WAGER!





Michael Berrer 1.45 over Carsten Ball ($2000 to win $900)

Hahaha is all I can say right now and I wish I didn't have to give anymore details but which complete moron came up with these odds. I was expecting something like 1.15 or maybe close to that but I guess this is another one of those freebies that the books feel we deserve after getting our asses handed to us (well not me but some of the clowns who post on this forum) and I don't mind because I am about to cash in here. Carsten Ball is no doubt going to have the crowd (if there is more than 200 people watching this piece of shit match) as he is one of the Australian Wildcard entries in this tournament but let's be honest here, had it not been for the Wildcard spot, this 21 year old kid would stand no chance of ever making the main draw of this tournament and I really think Berrer is going to teach him a nice little lesson. Berrer was a little bit shaky in the qualifying tournament and it won't surprise me if he loses a set in this match but don't be concerned, he has enough experience on hardcourts to win this match and my guess is not going to want to be embarrassed by a local who does not have much match experience. Ball does have talent and he has pulled off some impressive wins over guys like Spadea in the past but again this is not his element and I just don't think he has the preparation to win this match. Ball tried to qualify for the Brisbane tournament but was bounced in the first round against Belluci in straight sets and that is the only match he has played since a challenger even in the US last November. The only experience Ball has in the Australian Open is qualifying tournaments in 2006 and again last year in 2008 where he won his first qualifying match but then went crashing out against Rajeev Ram. In 2006 he lost a thrilling first round qualifying match so this is his first main draw match ever and nerves will play a big part in the outcome. This is actually Berrer's third time reaching the Main Draw of the Australian Open and although he lost his match in 2007 against Zverev, Berrer was able to beat Donald Young in 2008 before losing to Andy Roddick in the next round. I think the German wants to take things up a notch this time around that would include making it to the second round again and possibly reaching the third round. No way he settles for a first round exit against an Australian Open virgin like Carsten Ball. I love the fact that Berrer has played in 28 hardcourt matches over the span of the last 12 months and that he has won 17 of those matches because it means he knows to handle a serve on this surface and knows how to move to make his opponent uncomfortable. Ball has been almost just as good and just as active on hardcourts but he does not play at the same level of tennis as Berrer and I just don't see him winning this match. This is a match that means a lot to both players apparently but again Ball just doesn't have the stuff needed to beat the way more experienced Berrer in this match. Not a big play for me but definitely a play I will take as I consider it free money.





Sergiy Stakhovsky 1.96 over Arnaud Clement ($1000 to win $960)

Thank you very much once again oddsmakers for gifting us with such odds on such a match. I have a feeling the betting public is going to be all over Clement in this match because Sergiy Stakhovsky is a virtual unknown and the sheep will gather on what looks to be great odds on the flying frenchman. WELL BIG MISTAKE CLEMENT BACKERS! These two have actually met twice in the past, once on carpet in Moscow in 2006 and once in the US Open qualifiers in 2005 where Arnaud Clement won both times. Having said that, in 2005 Clement was ranked #91 in that match and in 2006 he was ranked #54 in that match while Stakhovsky was ranked right around the #200 spot for both matches and never really stood a chance. Well just to let you know things have changed big time in the tennis world and the young Ukrainian is now ranked #83 in the world and has come a really long way since those matches with Clement. The frenchman on the other hand is on his way out of tennis and I cannot believe some of you are already backing this piece of shit after what he did to us here last year. Stakhovsky had the courtesy of playing in Doha to warmup for this even and although he didn't win the event, he did reach the third round and lost to Andy Murray which is nothing to be ashamed of at all. Prior to that he had won quite a few matches in Challenger events and I really think he is ready to take the next step and win a big time match here. Clement on the other hand is in horrendous form right and CLEMENT HAS WON JUST 2 OF HIS LAST 8 MATCHES AND THOSE WINS WERE AGAINST DIEGO JUNQUIERA (CLAY PLAYER) ON HARDCOURT AND BJORN REHNQUIST THE #183 PLAYER IN THE WORLD. Did you guys see this chump Clement in Sydney last week? He went crashing out in the first round of qualifying and looked like he had not played tennis in 5 years. On top of all that, Clement is only 1-4 in his last five opening round matches at the Australian Open with his only win coming in 2007 against Xavier Malisse in a four set battle. Clement was horrendous last year losing to Rainier Schuettler in a disaster match for all us bettors and he did lose to some pretty good players over the years. The thing is, Clement is not getting any younger and Stakhovsky is actually getting better. The Ukrainian is only in the Main Draw of this event because of his ranking and his only experience here in the past has been qualifying round losses. So why back him in this spot you ask? Well because I know he is going to want to live up to his ranking and Stakhovsky is a much better player than he was one year ago when he came into the qualifying tournament as the #199 ranked player in the world (he has since jumped more than 100 spots and now has confidence to go along with it). This would arguably be the biggest win of his career if he can pull it off and Clement is just too slow and makes too many mistakes to keep up. For those of you who say that Stakhovsky cannot play on hardcourts, I would like to argue that and let you know that he is 16-5 in his last 21 hardcourt matches over the last 12 months while Arnaud Clement has played in 16 hardcourt matches over the last 12 months and he has won only 7 of those matches. Don't kid yourselves guys, Clement is a complete joke and he is not going to win this match. Anyone who saw him in Sydney a few weeks ago knows what he is all about and my gut feeling is that he is only here to collect his losers cheque and go back home to rest for a few months before heading out to the US for those tournaments. TAKE STAKHOVSKY TO THE BANK HERE GUYS!





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Old 01-19-2009, 07:17 PM   #24
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

I had a quick look at the schedule and I can't see much going wrong tomorrow for favs backers as long as the basic rules are observed as in number 1: avoid the Russians bearing false gifts at low odds - and there are loads of them tomorrow. Underdogs, I just dunno, Canas and Darcis don't seem particularly convincing to me but how to back their opponents that I've never seen playing? Who the hell is Kindlmann?
Anyways, it'd be interesting to see what Dancevic can do against the unreliable Blake, and what happens with some of the favs that don't make much sense eg. why is Golubev so low against Fognini? How can anybody trust Haas even if the price has collapsed in 2 days? Why is Hewitt playing Gonzalez in the first round? Can Koubek do anything?
But since I'm too lazy to follow the news, I'll just stick to the action and the easy way to make some $$$

No bother.
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:17 PM   #25
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

2009 MTF Record 12-10

anyone good day coming up boys:

granollers @ 1.69 5 units
fognini @ 2.7 3 units
melzer @ 1.98 3 units
scheuttler @ 1.92 4.5 units
de chaunac @ 2.84 2.25 units
ljubicic @ 1.59 4 units
clement @ 2.02 3.5 units
dancevic +2.5 sets @ 1.7 4.5 units
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:20 PM   #26
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

Ooo for once my picks are up against mista. good luck mate.
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:25 PM   #27
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

D. Istomin @ 2.2
A. Golubev @ 1.61
M. Granollers @ 1.70
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:51 PM   #28
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

Mistaflavas write up are pure and complete shit. Canas doesnt care about this? You probably didnt read or hear a shit about Canas preparations.
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:52 PM   #29
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

Ljubicic-Kunitsyn OVER 38,5 games @1.82, 2 units
STEPANEK x ANDREEV x HANESCU x BERRER x GASQUET @2.40, 2 units
ANCIC x SIMON x YOUZHNY x GULBIS x MURRAY @1.56, 3 units
Blake-Dancevic set betting 3-1 @3.80, 1 unit
CIPOLLA over Tursunov @4.42, 1 unit
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Old 01-19-2009, 08:03 PM   #30
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Default Re: 1/200 for Murray Tuesday

Could have sworn I saw Haas at evens a couple of days ago, now at $1.50? wow
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