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Old 03-16-2009, 02:55 AM   #31
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Prologue Match Ups

1 unit - Zabriskie over Cavendish @ $1.84 - Yes Cavendish is a good prologue rider but Zabriskie is far better.

1 unit - Rogers over Boonen @ $2.40 - Again, this is a good value bet. Rogers is a good bet over any distance.

1 unit - Hushovd over Cancellara @ $3.38 - History shows that Hushovd is good over short distances. Won the prologue at the Tour de France a few years ago and has shown good history with it. Cancellara on the other hand might be the best time trialist in the world, but with his engine, he needs it longer. This is going to be closer than what the odds suggest and I see that price and I'm willing to take it.

Good luck!
Up 1.2 units for that stage
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Old 03-16-2009, 02:56 AM   #32
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
ill update this shit before milan san remo on sunday. Excellent profit this year so far. Not touching last stage of paris nice but touching the time trial in italy. 1 unit on gerdemann at $11, 1 unit on grabsch at $15, half units on guiterez at $24 and bruseghin at 36. - cancellara coming back from injury. Kloden doesnt deserve those odds. Lovkvist is the form man but gerd and grabsch are better time trial riders.
LOST all of them. Down 3 units there.
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Old 03-16-2009, 03:06 AM   #33
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Paris-Nice bets as per the thread.

Overall

1 unit - Luis Leon Sanchez to win @ $11
3 units - Luis Leon Sanchez to podium @ $3.25

LLS is a very strong rider. Performed well here last year. Whilst Contador needs to prove he is the man for Astana, there is value here in Sanchez. He will descend like crazy on some of the climbs near the end of the race and thus will get time over everyone.

Head to Heads

2 units - Sanchez over Chavenel @ $1.85 - Again, Sanchez is going to come on the podium. Chavanel won't. Value

4 units - Sanchez over Colom @ $1.72 - Excellent value here

----------------------

WON All of those bets

----------------------

Prologue

.5 unit Pinotti @ $34
1 unit Martin @ $7

Head to Heads

2 units Millar over Contador @ $1.80 - Millar is a superior time trialist.
1 unit Martin over Larson @ $1.95 - Going the edge here in Martin.
1 unit Evans over Monfort @ $2.20 - Can't go past the value here even though this is Cadel's first race of the season.

lost lost lost won won

---------------------------------

stage 2 - lorenzetto to win at $4 - the form sprinter in this field. 1 unit on him. I reckon voeckler today will be in a break and if a break succeeds with weather and cross wind, im putting quarter of a unit on him at 150-1 - also putting a quarter unit on nocentini at 21-1. Good luck

LOST all 3

-------------------

no luck on stage 2. Stage 4 tonight sees about 5 3cat climbs. Im gearing up for friday's stage where they finish on a cat1 - pound contador with what you have. Anyway tonight. I see a break lasting. I dont see the main guys over exerting themselves here. Therefore someone that might try is moncoutie. He is a breakaway king and he is 13 mins down so not a threat. I reckon he tries tonight. Moncoutie to win at $12. Also a head to head i found and like. Luis sanchez at 1.85 over monfort

-----------------------

Lost both of those

-----------------------

Moncoutie @ $34
Voeckler @ $26
Burghardt @ $31

Lorenzetto @ $7 incase of a bunch sprint

---------------------
lost those
----------------------

One was 1 unit. The other were half units

----------------------

Alberto Contador to win Stage 6 - 10 units @ $1.70

-----------------------

WON

-----------------------

Paris-Nice gets me back on track.
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Old 03-16-2009, 03:07 AM   #34
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Tirreno -Adriatico Stage 2

In Torrino-Adriatica playing Bennati to win @ $5.50 and Pettachi @ $4.75 - 1 unit on each. Good luck!

Lost those.

Down again 2 units
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Old 03-16-2009, 03:13 AM   #35
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Okay so after Paris-Nice my record stands at the following

I've lost 25.8 units.

However, I have come back.

These are my wins

1 unit = 11 units
3 units = 9.75 units
2 units = 3.70 units
4 units = 6.88 units
1 unit = 1.95 units
1 unit = 2.20 units
1 unit = 7 units
3.5 units = 6.72
1.5 units = 3.60
4 units = 6.16
2 units = 3.48

Therefore the profit I have made from that is 39.44 units

Take off my losses 25.8 units

--------------------------

My updated record is the following.

For the season I am up 13.64 units

Not bad. Went a bit too hard too early but have found some form thanks mainly to Sanchez and Contador in Paris-Nice.

Let's keep this up.
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Old 03-16-2009, 03:19 AM   #36
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Tirreno-Adriatco stage 6

Well Kloden is in the lead by 6 seconds. Lovkvist is in good form. Tonight it wouldn't surprise me if Rodriguez wins but I like the price of Lovkvist right here.

.5 units on Lovkvist to win @ $9
.5 units on Rodriguez to win @ $4

Head to Head

1 unit on Basso over Pietropolli @ $2.02

Good luck!
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Old 03-17-2009, 10:33 AM   #37
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

ilost the above. Won with basso. Tonight im going with value. In this situation i would pound cav but the price is too short for starters. Secondly bennati on home soil hasnt got a win yet. Bennati to win at 7.50 - 1.5 units on him. Good luck
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Old 03-29-2009, 03:53 AM   #38
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Tonight's event. Pretty large play.

8 units on Alan Davis top 3 @ $2.50

Good luck!
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Old 03-29-2009, 03:54 AM   #39
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Brabantse Pijl is the event tonight.

Davis and Gilbert will go 1 - 2 but it all depends on what order.
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Old 04-01-2009, 02:14 PM   #40
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Tonight's event. Pretty large play.

8 units on Alan Davis top 3 @ $2.50

Good luck!
Refund

For some reason my bookie refunded ALL cycling bets on this event. Dunno why but I'm not complaining.
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Old 04-02-2009, 10:58 AM   #41
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Ronde van Vlaanderen

Again like MSR, I have a writeup. But not a very big one. I'm just going to evaluate again the riders I think have a chance.

Tom Boonen

Current Odds: $3.50/$1.70

Tommeke has been building his form up specifically for Flanders and Roubaix. However he isn't looking quite himself.
He got beaten by Pozzato earier in the week. Again, he said he was just building up his form. But the way Pozzato
won was excellent. Boonen is a main threat. Only has 2 wins to his name this year. The last fortnight he has picked
up a first a second and a third in different races.


Fillipo Pozzato

Current Odds: $6.50/$2.35

Pozzato after a slow start to the year has finally found his form. He was second in the Trofeo Laigueglia.
He won over the last week the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen beating Tom Boonen and also won the first stage of the three
days of de panne. Pozzato can climb and he is a solid classics rider. If anyone can upset Boonen it is this man.
He is a huge chance.

Heinrich Haussler

Current Odds: $9/$3

Haussler is having his best season to date as mentioned a few weeks ago. A bunch of wins this year already and a lot
of podium finishes. He can second in MSR and was unlucky not to win that race being beaten by the fastest man
in the world in the last metre. He has a strong team and will be looking to breakthrough.

Stijn Devolder

Current Odds: $13/$4

Devolder is Boonen's teammate but again a quality rider. Whilst he is not known for sprinting, Quick-Step have an
ace up their sleeve. If Pozzato and Haussler are too busy watching Boonen, someone like Devolder can take off in a small group and will be hard to run down. He is the defending champion so will be wanting to give a good site but the main objective for him will be helping Boonen.

Nick Nuyens

Current Odds: $16/$4.75

The Rabobank rider is not without a chance. He came second last year behind Devolder and in 2002 won the U23 Ronde Van Vlaanderen. Again with the right breakaway the guy is a chance. Anything can happen in a race like this. If this is not a bunch sprint, he'll be up there. Guaranteed.

Sylvain Chavanel

Current Odds: $17/$5

See Nuyens and Devolder. A breakaway chance in the right move. Again is a team-mate of Boonen and Devolder and another ace up quick-steps sleeve.

Leif Hoste

Current Odds: $17/$5

Team Silence lotto has been underfire all year. They have only posted one win through Cadel Evans and I don't
know how they managed that consider he is a wheel sucking wanker. They can't get things together.
They are in desperate need of a salvo. Hoste could be the person to save them and give them their first big win
of the year. He is a 3 time runner up in this event in 04, 06 and 07. Could go one better with the right move.

George Hincape

Current Odds: $22/$6.25

See again Devolder and the others who are a breakaway chance. Will be wanting to put his form together for Roubaix.

Greg Van Avermaet

Current Odds: $22/$6.25

Silence Lotto have been under the pump as I mentioned with Hoste. He is one of their trumps.

Phillipe Gilbert

Current Odds: $22/$6.25

Gilbert is the third trump up Lotto's sleeves. Can break away and has won big races in the past.

Marcus Burghardt

Current Odds: $25/$7

Again another trump from Team Columbia. Could be one to surprise in a right break.

Thor Hushovd

Current Odds: $30/$8.50

Hushovd has had a mixed year and has been under the radar because the focus is on his team-mate Haussler. If Haussler is a marked man, he can get up and take a sprint and surprise everyone. Do not count him out but he is doubtful. He has posted a first in stage 3 of the Tour of California. He won Omloop Het Nieuwsblad a few weeks back and came third in MSR. Can figure and can climb.

Daniele Bennati

Current Odds: $40/$11

Again don't write him off. Has posted a few wins and a few podiums this year. But this might be beyond him but can surprise if a bunch sprint occurs.

Other long shot chances include Quinziato @ $80, Leukemans @ $80. Arvesen @ $60 All 3 could surprise with the right moves.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So what do I reckon?

Well my writeup says it all. I think it is going to be a bunch sprint this year and it could go anyway. Truth be told I was
edging Boonen to win this the last few weeks but the emergence of Pozzato's form has put me on the back step. I think Pozzato
will win this and Haussler will be bridesmaid again like MSR. Boonen will battle out third with Hushovd.

I will also say that Burghardt will try to attack for Columbia, Devolder will try for quickstep. Hoste will be Silence Lotto's man
and Nuyens will ride strong for Rabobank. All will try desisive attacks but I think the sprinters take the event this year.

1st: Pozzato
2nd: Haussler
3rd: Boonen

Therefore my plays are the following. As I think any of these riders can win. This guy has let me down before but I trust him.
His form has given me much needed confidence in backing him again.

1 unit on Pozzato to win @ $6.50
5 units on Pozzato to place @ $2.35

5 units on Haussler's postition to be under 9.5 @ $1.72

.5 units E/W on Hoste @ $17/$5 - He is my cover incase the break succeeds.

Total units staked - 12

Good luck!
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Old 04-02-2009, 11:01 AM   #42
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

I had planned the last 2 weeks to put 8 - 10 units on Boonen to place but after seeing Pozzato's form lately I went back from that thought. Will it pay off? Time will tell.
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Old 04-04-2009, 03:14 PM   #43
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Upping the stake on Pozzato to 2 units.

So the final plays read.

2 units Pozzato to win @ $6.75
5 units Pozzato to place @ $2.55
5 units Haussler under 9.5 @ $1.72

.5 units on the win for Hoste @ $17
.5 units on the place for Hoste @ $5

Found some head to heads I like.

This one is with pinacle

3 units Maaskant over Langeveld @ $2.06 - Discounting the time trial, Maaskant finished 6th in the Three Days of De Panne. Now that is usually a good form guide for Flanders as the past 4 seasons, 2 riders that have finished top 5 in De Panne have finished top 5 in Flanders. I'm hoping Maaskant and Pozzato keep the trend going even though Maaskant was in 6th.

Centrebet plays

3 units Chavanel over Klier @ $1.68 - Now as I mentioned above, Chavanel is part of the 3 strong men on quick-step. His form is sound. I'm hoping he isn't sacrificed for Boonen here. But I expect Chavanel to finish top 15 whilst Klier will struggle to make top 50.

2 units on Hincapie over Flecha @ $1.85 - Hincapie's form is sound. Riding in the form of his life at the moment. I think Flecha will be sacrificed for Nuyens.

2 units on Devolder over Avermaet @ $1.85 - Devolder is the defending champion. Again, I'm hoping he isn't sacrificed for Boonen here. Silence Lotto have had a shithouse season where they can't do anything. I think their only win has come through Evans. Now Hoste is their leader so I think Avermaet will be sacrificed for him. I see Devolder top 15 here and Avermaet I don't see with the lead pack at the finish.

Good luck!
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Old 04-04-2009, 03:24 PM   #44
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

2008 Depanne

Posthuma (DNF Ronde)
Backstedt (43rd Ronde)
Devolder (1st Ronde)
Hincapie (5th Ronde)

Quinziato (37th Ronde)

2008 Ronde

Devolder (3rd in Depanne
Nuyens (DNS Depanne)
Flecha (DNS Depanne)
Ballan (16th in Depanne)
Hincapie (4th in Depanne)
2007 DePanne

Ballan (1st Ronde)
Posthuma (DNS Ronde)
Roesems (39th Ronde)
Matveyev (DNS Ronde)
Gusev (5th Ronde)

2007 Ronde

Ballan (1st in Depanne)
Hoste (36th in Depanne)
Paolini (10th in Depanne)
Kroon (DNS Depanne)
Gusev (5th in Depanne)

2006 DePanne

Hoste (2nd Ronde)
Eisel (15th Ronde)
Sanchez (DNS Ronde)
Rosseler (DNS Ronde)
Hincapie (3rd Ronde)

2006 Ronde

Boonen (DNF Depanne)
Hoste (1st in Depanne)
Hincapie (5th in Depanne)
Van Petegem (DNF Depanne)
Ballan (34th in Depanne)

2005 DePanne

Devolder (35th Ronde)
Ballan (6th Ronde)
Mattan (17th Ronde)
Sanchez (DNS Ronde)
Petito (5th Ronde)

2005 Ronde

Boonen (DNF Depanne)
Klier (DNF Depanne)
Van Petegem (DNF Depanne)
Zabel (DNS Depanne)
Petito (5th Depanne)

That's what I was mentioning above with this event being a good form guide for Flanders.

So I'm adding the extra position in for 6th and hoping at least Pozzato does continue this trend and hopefully Maaskant joins him top 6 therefore winning that head to head bet.

So this trend is a reason why I'm big on Pozzato. The other reason is he has got his form up right for this event. Form counts in an event as hard as this. I give Boonen a better chance of winning Roubaix than winning Flanders.
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Old 04-04-2009, 03:30 PM   #45
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Here is the top 6 in De Panne this year before the time trial and after the time trial

Before the time trial

1 Frederik Willems (Bel) Liquigas 12.15.50
2 Filippo Pozzato (Ita) Team Katusha 0.29
3 Borut Bozic (Slo) Vacansoleil Pro Cycling Team 0.45
4 Steve Chainel (Fra) BBox Bouygues Telecom 0.47
5 Marco Finetto (Ita) CSF Group - Navigare 0.49
6 Martijn Maaskant (Ned) Garmin - Slipstream 0.51

After the time trial

1 Frederik Willems (Bel) Liquigas 12.34.57
2 Joost Posthuma (Ned) Rabobank 0.19
3 Tom Leezer (Ned) Rabobank 0.54
4 Manuel Quinziato (Ita) Liquigas 1.00
5 Gregory Henderson (NZl) Team Columbia - Highroad 1.02
6 Borut Bozic (Slo) Vacansoleil Pro Cycling Team 1.03
7 Martijn Maaskant (Ned) Garmin - Slipstream 1.12

Note - Pozzato didn't start the time trial. For all those not familiar with that event, the 3rd and last stage consists of a road race in the morning and a time trial in the afternoon and Pozzato with all the other favourites for Ronde didn't start the time trial.
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