[Bolar Bolabi]

Stage 2

Playing two matchups.

3.5 units Matthew Lloyd over William Walker @ $1.92
1.5 units Michael Rogers over Luis Leon Sanchez @ $2.40

Good luck!

[Bolar Bolabi]

Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi

Stage 2

Playing two matchups.

3.5 units Matthew Lloyd over William Walker @ $1.92
1.5 units Michael Rogers over Luis Leon Sanchez @ $2.40

Good luck!

I am the king.

5 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia - High Road 0.04
6 José Joaquin Rojas Gil (Spa) Caisse D'Epargne
7 Mauro Santambrogio (Ita) Lampre - N.G.C
8 Tom Leezer (Ned) Rabobank
9 Mickaël Buffaz (Fra) Cofidis
10 André Greipel (Ger) Team Columbia - High Road
11 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin-Slipstream
12 Baden Cooke (Aus) UniSA
13 Jussi Veikkanen (Fin) Française Des Jeux
14 Wesley Sulzberger (Aus) Française Des Jeux
15 Mickaël Chérel (Fra) Française Des Jeux
16 Mathew Hayman (Aus) Rabobank
17 Rémy Di Grégorio (Fra) Française Des Jeux
18 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Columbia - High Road
19 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0.08
20 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Caisse D'Epargne
21 Mathieu Perget (Fra) Caisse D'Epargne
22 Matthew Lloyd (Aus) Silence - Lotto
23 Christian Knees (Ger) Team Milram
24 Iñaki Isasi Flores (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi
25 Matthew Wilson (Aus) UniSA
26 Vincent Jérôme (Fra) Bbox Bouygues Telecom
27 Hubert Schwab (Swi) Quick Step 0.13
28 Pieter Jacobs (Bel) Silence - Lotto
29 Simon Clarke (Aus) UniSA
30 Sébastien Hinault (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale
31 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse D'Epargne
32 Anders Lund (Den) Team Saxo Bank
33 Javier Megías Leal (Spa) Fuji-Servetto
34 Markel Irizar Aranburu (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi
35 William Walker (Aus) Fuji-Servetto

What is more important though is the General Classification

1 Allan Davis (Aus) Quick Step 7.31.42
2 André Greipel (Ger) Team Columbia - High Road 0.03
3 Graeme Brown (Aus) Rabobank 0.04
4 Stuart O'Grady (Aus) Team Saxo Bank 0.08
5 Baden Cooke (Aus) UniSA
6 Martin Elmiger (Swi) AG2R La Mondiale
7 Mauro Santambrogio (Ita) Lampre - N.G.C 0.14
8 José Joaquin Rojas Gil (Spa) Caisse D'Epargne
9 Jussi Veikkanen (Fin) Française Des Jeux
10 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin-Slipstream
11 Mathew Hayman (Aus) Rabobank
12 Mickaël Chérel (Fra) Française Des Jeux
13 George Hincapie (USA) Team Columbia - High Road
14 Michael Rogers (Aus) Team Columbia - High Road
15 Mickaël Buffaz (Fra) Cofidis
16 Rémy Di Grégorio (Fra) Française Des Jeux
17 Wesley Sulzberger (Aus) Française Des Jeux
18 Olivier Kaisen (Bel) Silence - Lotto 0.17
19 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0.18
20 Iñaki Isasi Flores (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi
21 Christian Knees (Ger) Team Milram
22 Mathieu Perget (Fra) Caisse D'Epargne
23 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Caisse D'Epargne
24 Matthew Wilson (Aus) UniSA
25 Vincent Jérôme (Fra) Bbox Bouygues Telecom
26 Matthew Lloyd (Aus) Silence - Lotto

Rogers now has a 4 second lead over the challengers.

Assuming that he finishes in the group on Saturday and they drop the sprinters like O'Grady on the last climb and someone like Elmiger isn't there, Rogers is in the box seat. Sanchez and Co are unlikely to escape from Rogers.

Elmiger or Rogers takes this.

[Bolar Bolabi]

Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi

Final plays

1.5 units on Rogers to win @ $21
3.5 units on Rogers to place @ $3

1 unit on Luis Leon Sanchez to win @ $11
0.5 unit on Bernard Eisel to win @ $17

0.3 unit on Adam Hansen to win @ $31
0.3 unit on Matthew Lloyd to win @ $31

0.2 unit on Trent Lowe to win @ $67

----

Rogers is my main bet. If any of the others get up, I still make a profit. If Rogers gets up it's pay day.

Correction on the above - that is $4 with Rogers top 3, not $3 as was stated.

That bet right there is sitting comfortable heading into the penultimate stage.

Rogers is 5th on GC and ahead of him are Elmiger by 2 or so seconds. O'Grady by 13 seconds and Davis and Brown by 20 odd seconds. I expect tomorrow that both Davis and Brown will lose time tomorrow because the mountain goats in Rogers, Sanchez, Perero and Armstrong and Lowe and the likes are going to put the hammer down and make a huge break on the climb and then stay away. If that's the case, he has top 3 almost all assured. However, if O'Grady and Elmiger don't come with that group, then Rogers is a good chance to win.

At this point in preceedings I'm 95% sure Rogers will sneak top 3. I'm quietly confident he can win this. Today he tried to attack. Yesterday he was in a break with Armstrong. He wants this and wants this bad.

I'll be on Old Willunga hill tomorrow hoping to get a few good action photos.

[Bolar Bolabi]

Forgot I had this thread.

2009 Tour of California.

I finally found a market with bet365. Seeing if another bookmaker will do the odds here in Australia.

Outright winner.

Rogers @ $10 - He is in form and the time trial will be good for him. This is a season goal to win this for Columbia so they are taking it very seriously. Other riders will be taking it casually getting back into the swing of things. Leipheimer is a 2.10 favourite which is understandable but it's hard seeing how his form is compared to Rogers who looks fucking brilliant this time of year.

Small play on Hincapie @ $34.

This is a who's who of cycling.

Basso is riding. Landis is making is comeback. Armstrong is there. The Schleck's are there. Sastre is there. Hamilton is there. Sevilla is back. Rogers, Hincapie are there. Kirchen is there. Leipheimer is there. Vandevelde and Cancellara are the two other big names. On the sprint side of things we see Freire, Hushovd, Cavendish and Boonen go head to head.

This is a star studded field for February. You would think that Landis, Leipheimer, Hamilton, Rogers and Hincapie are the only ones taking this seriously.

[KaiserT]

Which bookies cover this?

Can't find it on oddschecker.

[Bolar Bolabi]

Bet365.

www.bet365.com

Leipheimer $2.10
Cancellara $8
Rogers $10
Armstrong $10
Larsson $11
Zabriskie $13
Vandevelde $11
Landis $15
Danielson $34
Sevilla $34
Basso $34
Hamilton $34
Hincapie $34
Brajkovic $41
Voigt $51
F Schleck $67
Nibali $67
A Schleck $67
Mancebo $51
Clement $51
Lovkvist $51
Gesink $51
Guitterez $51
McCartney $101
Sastre $101

I wouldn't trust a $2.10 favourite in his first race of 09 ahead of guys that have raced this year already.

We all know Armstrong is the best time trialist in the field and he looked good in Australia but he might hand it to his team-mate in the time trial as Leipheimer has more to gain winning than what Armstrong does.

Rogers, Armstrong, Hincapie are all good bets. Cancellara will be dropped in the hills.

There is a lot of value here as the unknown is what is Leipheimer's form like.

This reminds me of last years Deutschland Tour. The only winner that was logical was Gerdemann coming back from injury in a Columbia squad that was aiming to win this in a weak field paying $8 to win.

Logic suggests back the guys in double figures here.

[Bolar Bolabi]

Liquigas is riding for training. So that rules out Basso.

Landis had a pre-race crash.

The only guys I see it taking this seriously are Rogers, Leipheimer, Hincapie and maybe Armstrong.

Therefore

1 unit on Rogers @ $10
.5 unit on Armstrong @ $10
.5 unit on Hincapie @ $34

Good luck!

[Bolar Bolabi]

Pinacle has matchups. Nice

Overall Match-Ups

1 unit - Armstrong over Basso @ $1.74 - Basso is taking this as a training ride. Armstrong has had some racing under his belt. Armstrong is a superior time trialist. Armstrong will probably finish with Basso in the climbs. So this is decided in the time trial.

1 unit - Hincapie over Voigt @ $1.63 - Hincapie the better time trialist. Determined to win this. Voigt will be helping out the Schleck's.

3 units - Rogers over Hamilton @ $1.54 - Rogers is the form rider in the peloton at the moment. Showed he is climbing well and time trialing well.

[Bolar Bolabi]

Prologue Match Ups

1 unit - Zabriskie over Cavendish @ $1.84 - Yes Cavendish is a good prologue rider but Zabriskie is far better.

1 unit - Rogers over Boonen @ $2.40 - Again, this is a good value bet. Rogers is a good bet over any distance.

1 unit - Hushovd over Cancellara @ $3.38 - History shows that Hushovd is good over short distances. Won the prologue at the Tour de France a few years ago and has shown good history with it. Cancellara on the other hand might be the best time trialist in the world, but with his engine, he needs it longer. This is going to be closer than what the odds suggest and I see that price and I'm willing to take it.

Good luck!

[Bolar Bolabi]

Added the stake of the overall matchups. The first 2 are 2 units and the Rogers one is 4 units.

[Bolar Bolabi]

I'll update this thread when I have a chance. A successful Tour of California and it looks like it mauy be a successful Paris-Nice. There is now also Tirreno - Adriatico which I'm going to put my plays in.

Stage 1 saw a breakaway succeed. Stage 2 sees another possible sprint finish.

Cavendish to win @ $4.50 - It will be out of Cavendish and Bennati. Cavendish is the best sprinter in the world, hard to pass up these odds. Plus Cavendish is in awesome form with a few wins so far. On target for well over 20 this year.

[Bolar Bolabi]

ill update this shit before milan san remo on sunday. Excellent profit this year so far. Not touching last stage of paris nice but touching the time trial in italy. 1 unit on gerdemann at $11, 1 unit on grabsch at $15, half units on guiterez at $24 and bruseghin at 36. - cancellara coming back from injury. Kloden doesnt deserve those odds. Lovkvist is the form man but gerd and grabsch are better time trial riders.

[Bolar Bolabi]

Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi

Final plays

1.5 units on Rogers to win @ $21
3.5 units on Rogers to place @ $3

1 unit on Luis Leon Sanchez to win @ $11
0.5 unit on Bernard Eisel to win @ $17

0.3 unit on Adam Hansen to win @ $31
0.3 unit on Matthew Lloyd to win @ $31

0.2 unit on Trent Lowe to win @ $67

----

Rogers is my main bet. If any of the others get up, I still make a profit. If Rogers gets up it's pay day.

Lost all of those. Down 7.3 units at that stage

[Bolar Bolabi]

Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi

Liquigas is riding for training. So that rules out Basso.

Landis had a pre-race crash.

The only guys I see it taking this seriously are Rogers, Leipheimer, Hincapie and maybe Armstrong.

Therefore

1 unit on Rogers @ $10
.5 unit on Armstrong @ $10
.5 unit on Hincapie @ $34

Good luck!

Lost those so down 2 units

[Bolar Bolabi]

Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi

Pinacle has matchups. Nice

Overall Match-Ups

1 unit - Armstrong over Basso @ $1.74 - Basso is taking this as a training ride. Armstrong has had some racing under his belt. Armstrong is a superior time trialist. Armstrong will probably finish with Basso in the climbs. So this is decided in the time trial.

1 unit - Hincapie over Voigt @ $1.63 - Hincapie the better time trialist. Determined to win this. Voigt will be helping out the Schleck's.

3 units - Rogers over Hamilton @ $1.54 - Rogers is the form rider in the peloton at the moment. Showed he is climbing well and time trialing well.

2 units 2 units and 4 units they were as I corrected the post.

WON LOST WON