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Old 12-31-2008, 04:33 AM   #1
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Default Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

As of March when the first real Cycling event kicks off in Europe that you can bet on, the only sport I'm betting on is Cycling. Other than that, if I do place a bet on something else, it will only be something that should get up. I will start off with an account balance that I work towards and will be revealed when March comes around as it's a work in progress.

I am starting this thread earlier as the 2009 Tour Down Under is available to bet on. This is a serious bet and will count towards my YTD profit on Cycling.

I aim at the end of 2009 to cement myself as MTF's Cycling Betting Guru that everyone can follow for years to come. I will only specialize in the one sport. And that's Cycling.

So the Tour Down Under is open on betfair. I've had a quick look at the market today.

Armstrong, Perero, Sanchez, Hincapie, Rogers, Elmiger, Moncoutie and O'Grady - One of them will win. It will not suit a sprinter like last year so you can count all the sprinters out. It will come down to the Willunga - Willunga stage when they ride up Old Wilunga Hill twice instead of once. So one of these riders will break away. I think Sanchez will probably break away. Previous winner here. Wants to repeat the performance. Rogers also wants to make up for a difficult 2008 when he was struck down with Illness from January and missed half the season after crashing out of the 2007 Tour de France.

This is also 'king of Drug Cheat's' Armstrong's comeback race. So he will want to win.

At the moment the odds stands.

Armstrong $3.20
Pereiro $4.40
Rubiera $5.00
LL Sanchez $5.30
Hincapie $5.30
Rogers $5.30
Elmiger $5.30
Aerts $6.00
Moncoutie $8.00
O'Grady????

At the moment, forget the rest. When I can get Stuey's odds, I will.

More to come in the following weeks.
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Old 12-31-2008, 05:23 AM   #2
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

TEAM COLUMBIA (USA)
1. Andre GREIPEL GER
2. George HINCAPIE USA
3. Michael ROGERS AUS
4. Bernhard EISEL AUT
5. Mark RENSHAW AUS
6. Greg HENDERSON NZL
7. Adam HANSEN AUS


Team Manager: Alan PEIPER AUS

ASTANA (LUX)
11. Lance ARMSTRONG USA
12. Assan BAZAYEV KAZ
13. Jesus HERNANDEZ ESP
14. Michael SCHAR SUI
15. Maxim IGLINSKIY KAZ
16. Steve MORABITO SUI
17. Jose Luis RUBIERA ESP


Team Manager: Sean YATES GBR

AG2R LA MONDIALE (FRA)
21. Martin ELMIGER SUI
22. Sebastien HINAULT FRA
23. Vladimir EFIMKIN RUS
24. Alexandr PLIUSCHIN MDA
25. Nicholas ROCHE IRL
26. Rene MANDRI EST
27. Alexander EFIMKIN RUS


Team Manager: Laurent BIONDI FRA

SILENCE - LOTTO (BEL)
31. Mario AERTS BEL
32. Glenn D'HOLLANDER BEL
33. Pieter JACOBS BEL
34. Olivier KAISEN BEL
35. Jonas LJUNGBLAD SWE
36. Matthew LLOYD AUS
37. Tom STUBBE BEL

Team Manager: Hendrik REDANT BEL

TEAM KATUSHA (RUS)
41. Robbie McEWEN AUS
42. Gert STEEGMANS BEL
43. Kenny DE HAES BEL
44. Juan HORRACH ESP
45. Stijn VANDENBERGH BEL
46. Sergey KLIMOV RUS
47. Nikolay TRUSOV RUS

Team Manager: Dmitri KONYSHEV RUS

TEAM SAXO BANK (DEN)
51. Stuart O'GRADY AUS
52. Jens VOIGT GER
53. Nicki SORENSEN DEN
54. Kasper KLOSTERGAARD DEN
55. Matthew GOSS AUS
56. Frank HOJ DEN
57. Anders LUND DEN

Team Manager: Kim ANDERSEN DEN


BBOX BOUYGUES TELECOM (FRA)
61. Matthieu SPRICK FRA
62. Mathieu CLAUDE FRA
63. Vincent JEROME FRA
64. Laurent LEFEVRE FRA
65. Rony MARTIAS FRA
66. Alexandre PICHOT FRA
67. Perrig QUEMENEUR FRA

Team Manager: Christian GUIBERTEAU FRA

COFIDIS (FRA)
71. David MONCOUTIE FRA
72. Mickael BUFFAZ FRA
73. Aliaksandr USAU BLR
74. Guillaume BLOT FRA
75. Florent BRARD FRA
76. Julien EL FARES FRA
77. Rein TAARAMAE EST

Team Manager: Francis VAN LONDERSELE FRA

FRANCAISE DES JEUX (FRA)
81. Mikael CHEREL FRA
82. Remy DI GREGORIO FRA
83. Timothy GUDSELL NZL
84. Jussi VEIKKANEN FIN
85. Yoann OFFREDO FRA
86. Jeremy ROY FRA
87. Wesley SULZBERGER AUS

Team Manager: Thierry BRICAUD FRA

CAISSE D'EPARGNE (ESP)
91. Oscar PEREIRO ESP
92. Luis Leon SANCHEZ ESP
93. Jose ROJAS ESP
94. Pablo LASTRAS ESP
95. Nicolas PORTAL FRA
96. Imanol ERVITI ESP
97. Mathieu DRUJON FRA


Team Manager: Neil STEPHENS AUS

QUICK STEP (BEL)
101. Allan DAVIS AUS
102. Matteo TOSATTO ITA
103. Dries DEVENYNS BEL
104. Davide MALACARNE ITA
105. Francesco REDA ITA
106. Hubert SCHWAB SUI
107. Kurt HOVELIJNCK BEL

Team Manager: Rik VAN SLYCKE BEL

EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI (ESP)
111. Josu AGIRRE ESP
112. Pablo URTASUN ESP
113. Inaki ISASI ESP
114. Andoni LAFUENTE ESP
115. Markel IRIZAR ESP
116. Sergio DE LIS ESP
117. Aitor HERNANDEZ ESP

Team Manager: Josu LARRAZABAL ESP

MILRAM (GER)
121. Christian KNEES GER
122. Luca BARLA ITA
123. Martin MULLER GER
124. Markus EICHLER GER
125. Willem STROETINGA NED
126. Thomas ROHREGGER AUT
127. Ronny SCHOLZ GER

Team Manager: Vittorio ALGERI ITA

LAMPRE - N.G.C (ITA)
131. Matteo BONO ITA
132. Emanuele BINDI ITA
133. Andrea GRENDENE ITA
134. Mauro SANTAMBROGIO ITA
135. Vitaliy BUTS UKR
136. Volodymyr ZAGORODNIY UKR
137. David LOOSLI SUI

Team Manager: Bruno VICINO ITA

RABOBANK (NED)
141. Graeme BROWN AUS
142. Stef CLEMENT NED
143. Mathew HAYMAN AUS
144. Jos VAN EMDEN NED
145. Rick FLENS NED
146. Tom LEEZER NED
147. Kai REUS NED

Team Manager: Adri VAN HOUWELINGEN NED

LIQUIGAS (ITA)
151. Maciej BODNAR POL
152. Cladio CORIONI ITA
153. Gianni DA ROS ITA
154. GJacopo UARNIERI ITA
155. Aliaksandr KUCHYNSKI BLR
156. Francesco CHICCHI ITA
157. Frederick WILLEMS BEL

Team Manager: Dario MARIUZZO ITA

GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM (USA)
161. Julian DEAN NZL
162. Trent LOWE AUS
163. Timmy DUGGAN USA
164. Chris SUTTON AUS
165. Cameron MEYER AUS
166. Ryder HESJEDAL CAN
167. Christian MEIER CAN

Team Manager: Matthew WHITE AUS

FUJI - SERVETTO (ESP)
171. Daniele NARDELLO ITA
172. Ermanno CAPELLI ITA
173. Hilton CLARKE AUS
174. Javier MEGIAS ESP
175. Davide VIGANO ITA
176. William WALKER AUS
177. Ivan DOMINQUEZ USA

Team Manager: Alvaro CRESPI ITA

UNISA - AUSTRALIA (AUS)
181. Baden COOKE VIC
182. Aaron KEMPS QLD
183. Scott DAVIS QLD
184. Travis MEYER WA
185. Jack BOBRIDGE SA
186. Simon CLARKE VIC
187. TBA


Caisse, Columbia and CSC have huge squads. Astana have a reasonable squad as do AG2R. Columbia by far is the best squad. Greipel, last year's winner won 4 stages plus the down under classic. He will be hard to stop in the sprints providing they do stage winners.

So I see the winner coming from one of those 4 teams. The highlighed rider in the Garmin team is a rider who I rate could win this.

So that narrows the list of riders down to the ones I mentioned before. So still no help. I'll look through news and what have you and look at which riders really want to win this and that will also help with the elimination process.
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Old 12-31-2008, 05:31 AM   #3
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Is this thread open to everybody? I'm not betting (on cycling), but I follow the season with lots of interest. So I wouldn't mind giving my opinion in here.
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Old 01-07-2009, 03:16 AM   #4
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Yeah feel free to post what you want. However, I don't want this thread to be filled with lots of stuff so do what you want!

And go COLUMBIA!

At the moment, I have worked out a way to make 'almost' guaranteed money in cycling. The odds for the TDF are.

Armstrong $5
Contador $2.25

If you put $10,000 on Contador, you get a return of 22,250, including your stake

If you put $5000 on Armstrong, you get back 25,000 including your stake

So if Contador wins, you get a profit of 7,250

If Armstrong wins, you make a profit of 10,000

It's a win/win situation because if Contador crashes out, Armstrong wins. If Armstrong doesn't ride, Contador wins. Who is going to beat a team of Armstrong, Contador, Leipheimer, Kloden, Popovych and the rest? It's highly unlikely that someone else will win the tour this year.

A method I may take closer to July depending on what my balance is at.
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Old 01-07-2009, 03:36 AM   #5
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Information I have sought out for upcoming events.

Columbia desperately want to defend the TDU - so that leaves Greipel to win the sprint stages like last year and that leaves Rogers, Hansen or Hincapie to win the Wilunga stage.

Columbia, based in California are sending a powerful squad to win the Tour of California.

Cavendish, Rogers, Hansen, Hincapie, Lovkvist, Kirchen, Renshaw, Barry

That's a very strong lineup for a race this early in the season.

---------------------------------------------------

A few months down the track.

Rebellin wants Milan-Sanremo added to his list of accomplishments. Was a consistent rider last year finishing top 3 in many occasions.

Hincapie finally wants some luck in Paris-Roubaix - he is desperate to win that just like I am desperate for a root.

Gilbert is aiming specifically for one day races. He wants to win the Leige, but knows he's still raw for it and wants the experience.
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Old 01-07-2009, 03:37 AM   #6
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
As of March when the first real Cycling event kicks off in Europe that you can bet on, the only sport I'm betting on is Cycling. Other than that, if I do place a bet on something else, it will only be something that should get up. I will start off with an account balance that I work towards and will be revealed when March comes around as it's a work in progress.

I am starting this thread earlier as the 2009 Tour Down Under is available to bet on. This is a serious bet and will count towards my YTD profit on Cycling.

I aim at the end of 2009 to cement myself as MTF's Cycling Betting Guru that everyone can follow for years to come. I will only specialize in the one sport. And that's Cycling.

So the Tour Down Under is open on betfair. I've had a quick look at the market today.

Armstrong, Perero, Sanchez, Hincapie, Rogers, Elmiger, Moncoutie and O'Grady - One of them will win. It will not suit a sprinter like last year so you can count all the sprinters out. It will come down to the Willunga - Willunga stage when they ride up Old Wilunga Hill twice instead of once. So one of these riders will break away. I think Sanchez will probably break away. Previous winner here. Wants to repeat the performance. Rogers also wants to make up for a difficult 2008 when he was struck down with Illness from January and missed half the season after crashing out of the 2007 Tour de France.

This is also 'king of Drug Cheat's' Armstrong's comeback race. So he will want to win.

At the moment the odds stands.

Armstrong $3.20
Pereiro $4.40
Rubiera $5.00
LL Sanchez $5.30
Hincapie $5.30
Rogers $5.30
Elmiger $5.30
Aerts $6.00
Moncoutie $8.00
O'Grady????

At the moment, forget the rest. When I can get Stuey's odds, I will.

More to come in the following weeks.
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Old 01-13-2009, 06:48 PM   #7
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

So Michael Rogers says on the news that he thinks the competition will come from his teammates in Hansen and Hincapie.

Hansen has said that Hincapie and Rogers are the ones he is riding for. Therefore, I think Rogers is a good bet.

Current prices

Sanchez @ $7
Hincapie @ $7
Rogers @ $5.30
O'Grady @ $8

I've narrowed the list down to these riders. Going to try and get odds for Adam Hansen and Trent Lowe to compare.

At this stage with Rogers form, he looks the man to beat. Was unlucky not to win the Australian Road Race Championships.

I'll try and talk to him sometime on Sunday or early next week before a stage to see what he says. He will probably say whoever is strongest. But I will ask anyway.
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Old 01-16-2009, 10:58 PM   #8
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Everybody is probably wondering. Where is Bolar? The event kicks off on Tuesday and no sign of him.

Well no fear, bolar is here.

My units are per every $100.

I've set myself 1000 units to use. Just incase they bet on stage wins.

Sometime today I'll be placing these bets on because I need to get prices to cover myself.

Michael Rogers to win @ $12 (1)
Luis Leon Sanchez to win @ $7 (1.5)

Top 3

Michael Rogers @ $4 (3.5)

That should cover me for these riders. Michael is in good form. Very good form.

To win I will also be putting money on the following riders but no price yet as I have to quote them.

Adam Hansen
Trent Lowe
Matthew Lloyd

These guys are very good young australian riders who are in with a chance. Lloyd finished top 10 last year. I'm going to have Lloyd top 3 aswell. The units will be small as these odds will be probably triple figure. So if they are, they will be only .1 or .2 or something like that.

-----

I can't understand Armstrong being favourite. Yes his team couldn't keep up with him on old willunga hill, but this **** hasn't raced for like 3 years. He can't expect to win. If he does win, there is something wrong with the quality of the riders nowadays or he's still doping. I would say the latter.

Rogers @ $12/$4 is a steal if you ask me. He is the favourite over here and I believe it. Strong team to back him up and Columbia are determined to win.

I might place more on Rogers yet. I'm being conservative considering it's the first race of the season to any profit will be good profit.

Good luck!
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Old 01-17-2009, 12:39 AM   #9
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Fuck those odds. Rogers is at 21, Sanchez 9 at centrebet.

I'll update these plays once I work out what sportingbet are going to do. Then I can look for some nice value.
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Old 01-19-2009, 06:53 AM   #10
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Final plays

1.5 units on Rogers to win @ $21
3.5 units on Rogers to place @ $3

1 unit on Luis Leon Sanchez to win @ $11
0.5 unit on Bernard Eisel to win @ $17

0.3 unit on Adam Hansen to win @ $31
0.3 unit on Matthew Lloyd to win @ $31

0.2 unit on Trent Lowe to win @ $67

----

Rogers is my main bet. If any of the others get up, I still make a profit. If Rogers gets up it's pay day.
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Old 01-19-2009, 06:53 AM   #11
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Final plays

1.5 units on Rogers to win @ $21
3.5 units on Rogers to place @ $3

1 unit on Luis Leon Sanchez to win @ $11
0.5 unit on Bernard Eisel to win @ $17

0.3 unit on Adam Hansen to win @ $31
0.3 unit on Matthew Lloyd to win @ $31

0.2 unit on Trent Lowe to win @ $67

----

Rogers is my main bet. If any of the others get up, I still make a profit. If Rogers gets up it's pay day.
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:07 AM   #12
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Rogers is my main bet. If any of the others get up, I still make a profit. If Rogers gets up it's pay day.

The way I see it.

Rogers is the main man. Columbia are strong and last night in the classic showed they are here to win. Rogers is in excellent form. He should excell in Adelaide this week and in California in February, then prepare for July. Can't see him not featuring here. Top 3 at least.

Luis Leon Sanchez is a bet I had to take at those odds. He, like Rogers has won it before. He is also a good climber and I would love to see what he does on Old Willunga hill on Saturday. Maybe break away ala Paris-Nice last year and the TDF on the climb and chrono his way to the line. Caisse are riding for him.

Eisel is a sprinter who can climb. So backing myself there.

Matthew Lloyd is an excellent young rider who shall do well this week. Top 10 last year. Could feature. At those odds you can't leave him out.

Adam Hansen is also a smokey. If Rogers can't do it, Hansen is Columbia's backup. He made the moves on Old Willunga hill last year to set it up for Greipel. Again, in good form so he shall feature again.

Trent Lowe is the real good one. Garmin will be looking to make their mark. People think they are riding for Dean and someone else but let me tell you, I expect Lowe to be contesting the final climb on Saturday and could sneak away with it.

It wouldn't surprise me to see all of these riders finish top 10. If that's the case, one of them will win.
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:08 AM   #13
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

I might be putting more money on Rogers yet. Can't understand those odds. Really can't.
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Old 01-19-2009, 10:10 AM   #14
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

You going to watch any of this live Bolar?
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Old 01-20-2009, 06:29 PM   #15
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Default Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Yep BG. Went Sunday for the classic. Columbia dominated and had about 5 or 6 riders leading the way in the last lap but peeled off too early and McEwen gobbled Greipel up.

They made amends yesterday dominating the peloton giving Greipel the win.

I'm going to today's stage which should give the DC a shake up. I'm wary of O'Grady now winning due to the fact he picked up a valuable time bonus yesterday second in the sprint.

I'll be going to Saturday's stage at Willunga when they go up old willunga hill twice as that will decide the winner. I'll be on the hill at some point. Then I'm going on Sunday's.

Michael Rogers is very determined to win this race. Reports I've been hearing but O'Grady is in a prime position but I can't see him holding it today or Saturday.
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