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Old 09-18-2008, 07:59 PM   #121
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

1.60 against Fed? He wasn't any higher than 1.30 ( if you're talking about the RG final ).
The bookies don't like to offer big prices on sure wins
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Old 09-18-2008, 08:18 PM   #122
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cardio View Post
I meant 500 bucks on every match, when match is over you get back your stake with profit and can do it again in next round. You dont have to have 11 K free money to spend.
That's true, my bad. I was being ridiculously thick , which suits this particular thread.

Quote:
Of course there is always risk to lose your stake like happened against Ferrero, but as long you dont put your previous profit in, it should work.
Well, don't say it should work, because just look at jig's thread. It worked up to a point, and then bust. How many players can you pick out over the course of a season that are likely to have the sustained run Nadal can have on clay?

None. On the men's or women's tour. So really all we are talking about here is backing Nadal from Monte Carlo to Roland Garros, and given that he has now won 4 French Open's and given that the prices are now very, very short, even against better opposition - the chance to play with this kind of experiment has gone. In my view, obviously.

Quote:
As for books adjust to players success.. they do, but I dont think we`ll see Rafa @1.05 against Fed in clay final any time soon. Rafa won in Monte Carlo and his odds in Hamburg final were not significantly shorter. Rafa won in Hamburg and his odds in RG final were still around 1.5-1.6.
Are you thinking 2007 rather than 2008?

Nadal was a little bigger this year for Hamburg because the books figured the fatigue factor may catch up with him, we saw that it hadn't. At Roland Garros he was 1/4 in most places for the final, not 1/2 as you claim, at least as I recall it.

Quote:
Rafa destroyed Fed in RG, won in Queens and he was still underdog in Wimby final.
He was a marginal dog for the Wimbledon F and in most places by the time the first ball was hit it was a pick 'em.

The argument against betting in the way you suggest for this short period of time is the same as the argument against for the duration - because backing that short, consistently, will eventually kill you. And for the period or time that you get away with it is not actually worth the risk factor, again, just my view.
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Old 09-18-2008, 08:51 PM   #123
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Thx for the bad rep ILT- i always look forward to them
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Old 09-18-2008, 08:56 PM   #124
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

so, who's the one here that DIDN'T get a badrep from ILT?
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Old 09-18-2008, 08:58 PM   #125
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Quote:
Originally Posted by scarecrows View Post
so, who's the one here that DIDN'T get a badrep from ILT?
i'm sure everyone from the gambling forum has bad rep from ILT- been going on all year
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Old 09-18-2008, 09:05 PM   #126
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Quote:
Originally Posted by scarecrows View Post
so, who's the one here that DIDN'T get a badrep from ILT?
always wanted to know that too
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Old 09-18-2008, 11:27 PM   #127
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cardio View Post
Actually , I think it is interesting idea. To pick one player who you think will have great success and bet on every match he plays. I wonder if anyone tried it? Most obvious example is Rafa on clay. Everyone knows he is the best claycourter,but you can still make money using this very common knowledge.Rafa played 23 matches on clay this year and won 22. Of course his odds in early rounds were very low, perhaps 1.03 or 1.04. But I´m sure in QF, SF, Finals against players like Ferrer, Davydenko, Djokovic , Fed, his odds were lot higher, up until 1.6 at least against Fed . Lets say 500 bucks on every Rafa match on clay, lets say average odds on Nadal @1.15.
Total stake 500x23 = 11 500
Total return 500 x 22 x 1.15 = 12 650
Profit 1150 bucks. Too bad I didnt have this idea before clay season started
Exactly Cardio. This is just one of the stretegies that Pancho Gonzalez used to make over $63,000 in a give year just betting on Tennis.
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Old 09-19-2008, 02:15 AM   #128
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Quote:
Originally Posted by scarecrows View Post
so, who's the one here that DIDN'T get a badrep from ILT?
It's all your fault actually. I had been rather quiet on the rep front recently, until I saw that you made FedAce green again, undoing all of my hard work. When I tried to rep him, it came up with the usual "you have to spread some reputation around before giving it to FedAce". So naturally, I badrepped the first 10 people I could find, so that I will soon be able to badrep FedAce again.

Comprende?
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Old 09-19-2008, 02:27 AM   #129
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

This thread deserves to go the Bookies Hall of Fame.

Hook Line and Sinker

The only person stupider than someone willing to throw their money away, is the person who wont take it from them
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Old 09-19-2008, 02:35 AM   #130
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Nadal's odds with bet365 in 2008 (though they seem to fear him more than other books so these odds are probably the worst average)

MC: 1.07, 1.04, 1.12, 1.12, 1.44

B: 1.02, 1.01, 1.01, 1.00, 1.08

R: 1.02

H: 1.03, 1.12, 1.05, 1.4 1.57

RG: 1.005, 1.005. 1.005, 1.01, 1.04, 1.2, 1.25

still confident it's worthwhile?
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Old 09-19-2008, 05:46 AM   #131
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lebowski View Post
This thread deserves to go the Bookies Hall of Fame.

Hook Line and Sinker

The only person stupider than someone willing to throw their money away, is the person who wont take it from them
Just play along
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Old 09-19-2008, 05:50 AM   #132
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Quote:
Originally Posted by FedAce View Post
I have no idea what you are saying. are you saying you can change your bet in middle of the match?
Yeah...

Just go all in on one player and green out after the first point of the match
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Old 09-19-2008, 06:16 AM   #133
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cardio View Post
Actually , I think it is interesting idea. To pick one player who you think will have great success and bet on every match he plays. I wonder if anyone tried it? Most obvious example is Rafa on clay. Everyone knows he is the best claycourter,but you can still make money using this very common knowledge.Rafa played 23 matches on clay this year and won 22. Of course his odds in early rounds were very low, perhaps 1.03 or 1.04. But I´m sure in QF, SF, Finals against players like Ferrer, Davydenko, Djokovic , Fed, his odds were lot higher, up until 1.6 at least against Fed . Lets say 500 bucks on every Rafa match on clay, lets say average odds on Nadal @1.15.
Total stake 500x23 = 11 500
Total return 500 x 22 x 1.15 = 12 650
Profit 1150 bucks. Too bad I didnt have this idea before clay season started
Its being done by me, sheesh take an interst in my work
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Old 09-21-2008, 06:56 PM   #134
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Before you even try read some of my comments at http://valuebetting.blog.com/
Its my betting blog. Sorry for the bad english in the article .
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Old 09-25-2008, 02:32 PM   #135
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Default Re: OK, i am a Newbie to the tennis betting, but Should i go for it SERIOUSLY?

Quote:
Originally Posted by A_Skywalker View Post
Before you even try read some of my comments at http://valuebetting.blog.com/
Its my betting blog. Sorry for the bad english in the article .
Nice article, thank you. I actually know the sport of Tennis inside and out. my record so far is 7 wins and 5 losses, mainly due to some reckless betting on my part. actually my record is uaually much better.
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