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Old 08-28-2008, 10:48 AM   #16
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Gonna have a go at some dogs today as there is not much value today

Odesnik over Wawrinka @ 6.25
Darcis over Blake @ 5.65

gl

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Old 08-28-2008, 11:02 AM   #17
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Troicki V +4.5 @1.85 7/10

GL
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Old 08-28-2008, 11:09 AM   #18
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

I think Sabine Lisicki is worth a go today.

Gonna put 2 grand on her to win at a bookie that voids retirements incase of an injury.

She is working with gill reyes and that can only be a good thing for her.

Alona bondarenko is beatable, good player but very beatable.

Lisicki over A.Bondarenko @ 7/4

Querry over Devilder 1/4
Nishkori over Karanusic 1/2
Govortsova over Sugiyama 1/1
Chan over Baszinsky 4/5
Peng over Penetta 1/1

Monfils over Korlev 2/5
melzer over Vanek 1/5

Last edited by Iván : 08-28-2008 at 01:05 PM.
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Old 08-28-2008, 11:11 AM   #19
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
As "shit" as Mardy has been lately, and I do believe that description is accurate, I just couldn't trust PHM at these odds...give me 1.80+ and I'll reconsider. But as concerns the crowd, if you're playing crap, there isn't a lot that thousands of screaming fans can do for you, really...they can give you a lift, but if your game isn't working, it isn't working. And that has been the case for Fish for God knows how long...a finals run in New Haven doesn't prove a great deal imo.
i would go as far and say mardy had a better season on hard than mathieu

final in indian wells, semifinal in LA and final in new haven
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Old 08-28-2008, 11:17 AM   #20
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Has anyone the balls to bet on Melzer at 1.22? That would usually be an automatic lay for me, but Vanek is an awful awful player.
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Old 08-28-2008, 11:18 AM   #21
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bilbo View Post
mathieu is playing on armstrong. he will crack under the crowd and pressure i'm sure.
i also remember fish cracking under the pressure vs robredo here last year, he is capable of a big choke too.

this match is just too tight to call, i believe PHM is the better player at best level but just cant rely on him.
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Old 08-28-2008, 11:28 AM   #22
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bilbo View Post
i would go as far and say mardy had a better season on hard than mathieu

final in indian wells, semifinal in LA and final in new haven
Indian Wells was a flash in the pan...didn't see his form there, but I find it hard to believe that his current level would put him close to a similar run, now. Who did he beat of note in either LA or New Haven (barring a poor Verdasco)? No disputing he has a chance, not least because of Mathieu's nerves, but, for me anyway, the odds are about right.

Mate, if you're confident, just hit it...most of the time you come across as trying to convince yourself, and if you're trying to talk me around my ideas of the way the match will pan out, you're going to have to work a lot harder, because I'm not budging (right or wrong). GL

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaap View Post
Has anyone the balls to bet on Melzer at 1.22? That would usually be an automatic lay for me, but Vanek is an awful awful player.
Not a chance mate. But I agree entirely with what you're saying...on a normal day of the week, he shouldn't lose it.
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Old 08-28-2008, 11:37 AM   #23
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Monfils x JMDP x Muzza @1.64

cant see anyone of these losing, looks like easy money to me
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Old 08-28-2008, 11:41 AM   #24
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

One thing is sure : Fish hates PHM (and all french players of course). As Bilbo said earlier, Mathieu is able to choke if the crowd turns hostile. I "only" would like to know if Mardy plays well these days.
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Old 08-28-2008, 12:33 PM   #25
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Ivo Minar @ $2.78(10 Units)

Minar was all over Kiefer like a rash before the German retired with injury when trailing dismally deep into the fourth set. He served 54% of first balls in, produced 9aces and won 81% behind the first ball whilst he was also on-song from the back of the court making less than half the errors of Kiefer (26 to 54) and coming up with some very nice passing shots when the German was at the net. Jarkko Nieminen can go some way to erasing his poor 2008 with a good finish to the season, and he started off in style by accounting for disappointing local Scoville Jenkins. The Finn faced 10 break points and was vulnerable in the latter stages of the third, but the American made too many rash errors and was abysmal on the second serve where Nieminen managed to take 64%of the points to prevail in 3 sets. The only previous encounter was back when Minar was ranked outside the top 100, and was also on his least favoured clay surface. The improving Czech instead prefers the quicker surfaces that are more conjucive to his attacking and aggressive baseline approach, and this year has produced wins over Mahut, Schwank, Rochus, Chela, Isner, Kunitsyn and Hanescu. The win was just Minar's second in 12 career attempts which is bound to give him confidence, and given in recent times he has proved deceivingly difficult to break he could very well stick it out with the consistent Nieminen. The Finn is still lacking confidence and by no means in form, and when a predominantly defensive player is in that frame of mind they have a tendecy to try and overcook things as well as not delivering the killer punch when required. Wouldn't be touching Nimo at these odds, and I get a sneaky suspicion that Minar will set up a clash with Gonzo.

Kohlschreiber 7 - 6 First Set @ $7.40 (4 Units)

A Murray 3 - 1 @ $4.10 (5 Units)

Murray lost just 7 games in his first-round annihilation of the claycourt veteran Sergio Roitman looking sharp throughout especially on serve where he'd often fire up an ace or unreturnable just when you thought his mind was going elsewhere. The Scot made just 20 unforced errors, won 79% and 60% behind his first and second serves, was never broken in the entire match and won 13 of 17 advances into the net in what is proving a real improvement in the game of Murray. Michael Llodra was lacklustre in sets two and three against Gabashvili and was incredibly lucky that the erratic and inconsistent Russian squandered a 40-15 lead when serving for a 2-set-to-1-lead at 5-4 in the third. The Frenchman was on court for 3 and a half hours and his statistics would suggest it wasn't so much his quality play but the errors (including countless double faults) from Teimuraz that really let him off the hook. Murray is about 10 times as good a player than the Russian, and he was a convincing winner over the serve-volleyer when the pair met late last year in Llodra's home town - when Murray was just inside the top 20. Now, Andy is a career-best 6 and in sparkling form with his self-confidence beaming because he now knows he belongs among the game's creme of the crop after victories over Djokovic (2), Karlovic, Gasquet and a courageous defeat to Nadal in recent times. Murray is too good a defender to let Llodra get away with too many cheap points on the serve, and his baseline brilliance will have the big man clipping volleys at his feet. Murray is more likely to get break chances, is a better athlete, has superior stamina, the fresher legs, more variety from the back and is just all round such a better player. End of the road for sure for Llodra who can now focus on the doubles though the odds are hardly encouraging. Try a 3-1 value bet with Llodra to sneak an early tiebreak, but there is only one winner.

Under 37.5 Games Monfils vs Korolev @ $1.83 (40 Units)

Groenefeld 2 - 0 @ $1.59 (35 Units)

Groenefeld is really one to look out for in this tournament with such formidable lead-up form and getting back to some of her best tennis which pegged her in the top 20 a coouple of years back. Jess Moore outlasted a nervous and wasteful Melanie Oudin in R, but faces a much tougher task against the overpowering and self-confident Groenefeld who realises a big chance has opened up in the draw that could see ranking almost slashed in half this fortnight. Moore is a fighter but there's not much to her and she'll be overpowered and outmustered by the big hitting and precise line-skimming groundies of the German. Even as much as my patriotic heart would love to tell me otherwise, this will be a fairly straightforward victory for Groenefeld.


Su Wei Hsieh @ $10.50(5 Units)

Su-Wei Hsieh didn't drop a set during qualifying as she knocked over some capable types in Barrois, American teen talent Brengle and Espinosa who has produced some improved ITF results this year. Coming into her match with Rodina, the Chinese averaged 67% of points won behind the first ball and she carried that through against the Russian losing serve just once and winning 61% of second serve points. Petrova was a little tardy in patches against the outclassed Sanchez, the big burly Russian produced 7 aces and won 81% of points behind the first ball but was helped by Sanchez's 11 double faults and neither player managed to win over a third of points on their second balls which could be a concern for Petrova here. She is a formidable opponent at her best as we know, but she is prone to massive lapses in concentration and is no stranger to the big upset at GS level. Hsieh loves the hardcourts and showed at this year's Hopman Cup that she is a future force to be reckoned with - she also made the Round of 16 at the AO where it took a rampant Henin to stop her. Having won 11of her past 12 the confidence is high, and if Hsieh can catch Nadia on an off day she'll relish the pace coming onto her racket as she attempts to enduce her into error. I'm going out on a limb - I like Petrova and she's usually a good money-builder most of the time but some sneaky suspicion tells me that the talented youngster from Chinese Taipei is going to give the 19th seed one hell of a tough time so a small stab at the odds could prove worthy.

Kaia Kanepi @ $2.92(15 Units)


Kanepi's demoralising win over the in-form Niculescu should pose as a major concern for former world number one Amelie Mauresmo. The Frenchwoman came from a set down and almost lost a seemingly insurmountable 3rd set lead against countrywoman Dechy to book her berth in the second round, despite committing 12 double faults, 40 unforced errors and losing serve on 7 ocassions. She did beat Kanepi last week in New Haven where she was an eventual semi-finallist, but the Estonian looked awesome agaisnt the Romanian where she won 84% behind the first ball, never lost serve once and won 75% behind Monica's second serve. Kanepi enjoys going for her shots and on her day can overpower some quality opponents, and it's clear that the big stage of Grand Slam tennis doesn't overwhelm the youngster who gave Serena a fight on centre court at Wimbledon this year, made it to the QFs of the French beating Chakky, Medina and Kvitova along the way and gave Alicia Molik the scare of her life first up at the Aussie Open in January. Mauresmo is lacking self-confidence, she tries to guide her forehand which hence produces loads of errors or shank replies and is relying heavily on a serve/volley and chip/charge strategy that most women should eat up. Kanepi only needs to reproduce the serving stats against Niculescu to have Amelie right under the pump from the outset and I see this as the value bet of the tournament as the former junior world number 1 and Roland Garros winner cements herself a genuine top 30 proposition.
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Old 08-28-2008, 12:56 PM   #26
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Nishikori(-4.5) to beat Roko 1.85

Think that Kei is not the best matchup for Roko...Roko fancy big serving players which lack baseline consistency and in that position he feels good and dominant...but when need to play an extra shot and if things are not going good hes selfdestructive and crumble under pressure...Nishikori is more consistent from the baseline and think he is a player who will get in Rokos head and on the other side he seems to like scrappy moments and pressure....if fit and injuryfree he sholud come on top of this
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Old 08-28-2008, 01:06 PM   #27
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by sports freak View Post
Good luck Ryan,some decent plays m8 Mardy vs PHM could be a very long match and good for the overs,same again with Minar who should give Jarkko a run for his money!Ferru seems solid pic although not in his best form of late!Pennetta vs Peng,1st up was leaning towards Peng but this match looks like it could go either way easily!Was actually looking at Gorgeous Bremond (5.00 price here) over Vaidsova,Nikky has been in bad shape and at worse a backbet of Nikky 2-1 cant hurt if Severine doesnt have her way but dont see any bookies offering set betting on this match!!
Yes the Fish match i did not only because i think Fish has a decent chance but should be fun to watch a few hours enertainment- Bremond can definetly do it she has the game to beat Vaidisova just depends on the day and how both play i guess- luck needed, Nieminwn doesnt seem the same player in previous years so hopefully that continues- thx for your thought buddy always nice to exchange views
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Old 08-28-2008, 01:10 PM   #28
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaap View Post
Has anyone the balls to bet on Melzer at 1.22? That would usually be an automatic lay for me, but Vanek is an awful awful player.
He should win with ease but i'm not getting involved with him,verdasco and Melzer as you know are 2 players i never bet on and it doesnt matter who they are playing- my hatred for their past choking in matches is still there
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Old 08-28-2008, 01:12 PM   #29
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by ivan View Post
I think Sabine Lisicki is worth a go today.

Gonna put 2 grand on her to win at a bookie that voids retirements incase of an injury.

She is working with gill reyes and that can only be a good thing for her.

Alona bondarenko is beatable, good player but very beatable.

Lisicki over A.Bondarenko @ 7/4

Querry over Devilder 1/4
Nishkori over Karanusic 1/2
Govortsova over Sugiyama 1/1
Chan over Baszinsky 4/5
Peng over Penetta 1/1

Monfils over Korlev 2/5
melzer over Vanek 1/5


Your not the only 1 that thinks Lisicki will win today the racing post have tipped her up big time in this mornings paper
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Old 08-28-2008, 01:16 PM   #30
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Default Re: Simon says go home Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by ivan View Post
Querry over Devilder 1/4
Nishkori over Karanusic 1/2
Govortsova over Sugiyama 1/1
Chan over Baszinsky 4/5
Peng over Penetta 1/1

Monfils over Korlev 2/5
melzer over Vanek 1/5
you might add kanepi
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