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Old 09-05-2008, 11:12 AM   #61
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Difficult one this week. I would skip RKC, Haarlem, Excelsior, Zwolle, Veendam, Omniworld and MVV, which leaves us with TOP, Eindhoven and Cambuur. Last two would probably be best, but it can be one of those nights were all matches go over, or more than half go under..

High lines at asians this weekend as well, with 7 times a 3.0 line.
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Old 09-05-2008, 03:02 PM   #62
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Cambuur @ 1.9
Top - emmen over 2.5 x eindhoven - agovv over 2.5 @ 2.12

Good Luck Timo
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Old 09-05-2008, 08:17 PM   #63
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by maksim20 View Post
Cambuur @ 1.9
Top - emmen over 2.5 x eindhoven - agovv over 2.5 @ 2.12

Good Luck Timo
Well at least all my 3 advised overs actually went over but the rest was simply terrible.

Results:
Cambuur lost 0-3 (-8)
Veendam draw 0-0 (07)
MVV draw 1-1 (-5)

Insane day, 0-3 and -20. Can't remember a round going as bad as this one. Simply terrible. let's hope for a bit of a recovery this sunday.
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Old 09-09-2008, 10:43 PM   #64
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009



PSV v Sparta: PSV -2.25 5/10 @2.06

Last season's 3-1 win over Sparta, was the smallest win over the Rotterdam side at home since 2000, with 7-0, 3-0 and another 3-0 in that period. PSV has no real injury worries, with squad player Kromkamp being the only absentee that is a potential starter. Sparta on the other hand is still without potential key player van Gessel and new signing Knol isn't fit either. Last week with their terrible 2-5 home loss against Ado they showed just how weak their side really is and against an in form PSV side, who had a convincing win at Utrecht (1-5) they will go straight into the slaighter house probably. The line is pretty big, but so is the difference in quality. A 3 goal margin is what is needed and since PSV hardly ever concedes against at home against a squad like Sparta, this means 3,4 goals. I just can't see them not grabbing a big win here.



Heerenveen v Heracles: Heerenveen -1.25 5/10 @1.78

I was glad to be taking Heracles at home against Feyenoord but away from home, their performance isn't inspiring at all and just weak most of the time. Of course they lack overall quality to begin with, but their vibrant fans, combined with an artificial pitch give them a big advantage at home. Their 3-1 win against Feyenoord has caused them being overrated by the bookies a bit here against Heerenveen, who are always a class act at home as well. New coach Sollied doesn't have his side completely back on track yet, but they still managed to beat Volendam 2-3 in round 1 after a tough match. They have lot of quality, despite important players as Sulejmani and Bradley leaving and have a lot of talent. With Bak Nielsen and new signing Popov (probably) out the absentees aren't all too important. Heracles will probably without important defender Boakye, who was unable to play the first match as well.

I expected at least a -1.5 line for this match. Heracles always struggle in away matches and Heerenveen will show their quality this Friday. I don't expect a 9-0 as last season, but 2,3 goals difference should be the case.




NAC Breda v Willem II: NAC -0.5 6/10 @ 1.88

The derby between NAC and Willem II is always something special for the fans and the great NAC crowd will be cheering for their heroes even more during this encounter. Last season NAC won 1-0, and this season the chances for a home win look great as well, especially after the great 1-2 win at AZ last round. De Graaf is still out for NAC, just like Loran and Elshot and central defender Penders is doubtful. Willem II will be without central defenders Vorthoren and Swinkels, which will weaken their defence. Attacker Mourad is also out. Willem II surprised with a 2-1 homewin against Ajax in the first round, but looking at the quality they posess, I wouldn't call this win something we will be seeing too much this season. Especially away from home they will struggle a lot, being very dependent on several important players and having just a very mediocre squad surrounding them. Even though I don't rate the current NAC squad as highly as last season's, I rate them a lot higher than the visitors here. They will hardly give away a chance and with Amoah up front, supported by players as Reuser and Lurling, things should work out nicely. In the end of the transferwindow, they managed to sign van der Leegte, who will replace Molhoek, who left last season. Important defender/midfielder Stam left as well, but I believe the back-up is sufficient at least.

Groningen -0.5 5/10 @1.78


Groningen had a great start of the league with an impressive 0-4 win at Vitesse, while Utrecht looked terrible against PSV, losing at home 1-5. Groningen will probably be without important striker Powell. But with Nigerian Alijore en Petter Anderson the side has had two good signings in the end of the transferwindow. Both played in their friendly match a couple of days ago (2-0 vs Mechelen), but Anderson is doubtful for this weekend. Utrecht has played a practice match as well but had another terrible match, losing 3-0 to Belgian side GBA. In contrary to the first match, Utrecht will be able to line up their new signings Nesu, Boussaboun and also AZ's Cziommer was added to the side, which is a big quality boost. Suspended captain van Dijk, other signing Skoubo,important striker van der Gun and important defender Cornelisse will all miss the match however, even though Cornelisse has a minor chance of playing.

Utrecht are still struggling to find form and rhythm and even though several new players are ready to play, not much can be expected since they hardly ever played together and joined the club very late. Groningen is more ready for the league and especially this match. They are a brilliant home team with enthusiastic fans which should be more than enough for the win here.

Jupiler:
Under 2.75 (Fortuna-Haarlem) @ 1.98



Under 2.75 (Fortuna-Haarlem) @ 1.98

History is pointing towards the under here, with 1 match with more than 3 goals in 12 encounters. 3 encounters had exactly 3 goals and the other 8 went under. In Sittard the balance is 4 unders and 2 matches of exactly 3 goals.

This year, again Fortuna is one of the weakest teams, finding themselves in 19th place. Haarlem usually is right there with them, but have been performing way above expectations with some great wins, taking them to the 5th place. Looking at over/unders, Fortuna has had 1 over (away at leaders Excelsior), 1 of exactly 3 and 3 unders. Haarlem has had just 1 under, two matches with 3 goals and 2 overs. I still don't rate the Haarlem side too highly however and these 5 matches, with 3 home wins in them, don't say too much. In away matches they lost twice, looked a complete different side and the overall lack of quality just seems more clear. They have had the luck to play more offensive teams thusfar, which worked out great for their quick, counterreacting squad, but Fortuna will not give it away this easily. They build much more slowly from the back and are less vulnerable from the counter. This also makes them a lowscoring team and the under should work out nicely here. Could go both ways here, but can't see this being a high scoring match.




Helmond v Cambuur: Cambuur 0 7/10 @ 1.92
In form Cambuur conceded a big unexpected loss against injury plagued Den Bosch last week at home. They actually played a pretty decent match, but were unlucky with their finishing and saw all minor chances Den Bosch had in the first half go in. This could be a good thing for them today, being back on earth and still without having injury trouble. They have been my favourite team to bet on thusfar and all in all they haven't dissapointed me despite last week. Helmond is something different. They are a stable team most of the time but this season they have been having their ups and downs with a home loss to AGOVV, away loss at MVV and a 4-3 home win with 2 goals in the final minute, combined with a win at Omniworld and a draw against Emmen.

With what appears to be a match without important absentees (except Habraken for Helmond, who has been out for months), I rate the cambuur side a lot higher. Helmond hasn't been convincing at all, not even at home, with just that lucky win against Eindhoven and a draw against Emmen. Cambuur's efficient squad should be able to take the most out of their slow defenders and take them closer to the top of the rankings.




Dordrecht v Veendam: Under 2.75 6/10 @ 2.02

Both sides have been around the (sub)top for years in the league, but this year has been a huge dissapointment for them, finding themselves in 18th and 17th position in the rankings at the moment. Weakest department of both teams has been their attack. Dordrecht scored just 3 goals and just 1 in last 4 matches, while Veendam scored an average of 1 per match with 5 in total, relying on one 3-2 win mostly. With Ditewig on goal and players as Cijntje, Wiekens, Polak in the back the have a decent back line, but there is just not enough quality on the rest of the pitch, especially without Veldmate. This was painfully proven against Fortuna last week as well, where they weren't able to create enough against a weak Fortuna side. Dordrecht isn't different, with good central defenders Kras and Derveld, but no creativity on the rest of the pitch. Both sides will lack confidence and this match has a low score written all over it, 0-0 or 1-0 probably.




TOP v Zwolle:"Zwolle -0.25 8/10 @ 2.02
In form Zwolle find themselves second in the rankings, just behind leaders Excelsior and hoping the win the period title here tonight. After a dissapointing draw against MVV, they have looked very impressive with an away win at RBC and a draw at VVV, combined with home wins against strong Cambuur and against Telstar. Even though the side usually doesn't create tons of chances, they also hardly ever give anything away, and always are extremely effective. With quick wingers as van Polen and Boerrigter, the supply up front is good, providing them with solid countering qualities as well. TOP is currently 8th and have been in good form, looking at the results. Both home matches, against Omniworld (3-0) and Emmen (2-1) ended in a win, but neither match was good on the eye, struggling to create chances and not having any real tactics in their attack it seemed. Last season Quekel was of key importance, scoring many goals and holding the ball up front, but this season he has been injured and can play just 20 minutes per match now. His current status is a bit unclear. He has had several scans but no injury can be found, but the pain is still there. Further action, in the form of a probable operation, has yet to be taken. Last week's win against Emmen was a great result, but again a bad match with hardly any chances and extreme luck with two last minute goals. Zwolle has a huge chance to grab the period title here with a win, and will like to repeat last year's performance, when they won 2-4. Their squad is superior, despite injuries for Guarino and Kleizen up front, and captain van der Haar being doubtful and TOP's unbeaten run of 4 matches will probably end tonight.

Emmen v Excelsior: Under 3 5/10 @ 1.98


Despite Emmen's 6-2 loss at Cambuur, they haven't conceded too many goals with 1 goal every match and 2 last week at TOP Oss, where they conceded twice in the last minute, going from 0-1 to 2-1. They have tons of quality in the back, with former Celtic player Valgaeren, goalkeeper Villadsen and decent defenders as Zijn, Bevaart and van der Kruis.

Excelsior are the current leaders, but their result haven't been combined with good football at all. There were 2 big wins scoring wise, with 2-3 at AGOVV and 5-1 against Fortuna, but in those matches it took them forever to create chances and saw their opponent mess things up in the end. All 3 other matches ended with just 1 goal in it. They have no real striker, just attackers who can score a goal but who aren't known for their big amount of goals. Their defensive part is one of the better lines of the league however. Last match ended in an extremely lucky win against RBC but a win for the visitors from Roosendaal would have been more deserved. Emmen will have a good chance for a result here but I expect two awaiting teams, leaning back and waiting for a chance and doing everything not to get behind. The 0-0 score could be on the scoreboard for quite a while here.
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Old 09-10-2008, 12:28 AM   #65
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Just noticed this thread! Good start of the season. I tend to get off to a good start in most of the seasons as well. I will try to post my bets here as well in the near future!

Keep them coming!
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:26 AM   #66
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

De Graafschap v Vitesse
Vitesse 0 6/10 @ 1.88


In this local derby, Vitesse should be a lower favourite. Far too many is taken from their weak home loss last weak and the side is now again with several key players who were unavailable last week. Sansoni,Jenner, Molhoek and new signing Hofs. Only van der Struijk (suspension) and Tarvajarvi (still injured) will miss the match. They have a strong defensive midfield now that Sansoni (who will probably start in defence) and Molhoek are back, and with Jenner and Hofs they have more creativity to support strikers Junker and Kolk.

De Graafschap will find themselves battling against relegation this season with a very weak squad. Experienced striker den Ouden was a good addition, but the rest of their current squad hardly deserves to play at this level, more Jupiler League material. The derby was won by de Graafschap for the last time in 1996 at home. Since 1995 there were 10 encounters in Doetinchem, De Graafschap winning just one, grabbing 3 draws and losing 6 time, of which last 5 in a row. The quality difference should be enough if Vitesse manages to overcome the blow they conceded last week. De Graafschap's performance at NEC was uninspiring as well, and I expect Vitesse to prevail here.
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Old 09-12-2008, 04:16 PM   #67
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Adding 4/10 more for Heerenveen -1.25 @ 2.06

Heerenveen has been arguing with the Dutch FA about the fact that they have to play today, so soon after the internationals (5 u21 players, 2 internationals for Heerenveen). They wanted to play later this weekend and especially the chairman was a bit pissed off. The coach however has stated that this is a bit overrated and especially the under21 players won't have too much problems after playing on Tuesday already. Only important midfielder Pranjic and new signing Vayrinen played Wednesday. Pranjic is a fit and always motivated guy, don't see any problems there, and Vayrinen would have started from the bench anyway.

I understand the drift, but with the quality difference I wouldn't rate it too highly. I'm more worried about the weather here, with many periods of rain, but that's just a variable in this encounter. The drift is way too big, therefore I am adding a pretty big 4/10.
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Old 09-14-2008, 05:33 PM   #68
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

A horrific weekend for me going -32.7. Here's a message I also posted on my blog:

Thank you for all your comments. I know the results these last two weeks have been very poor, and even though I don't feel obliged to apologize or whatever for a recent string of bad results, I would like to comment it. Things have been going terrible these last two weeks and personally I have no idea what the problem is. Nothing has been changed in my capping, staking or anything. I'm not the type of person to just blame it on the lack of luck but the thruth is that everything that could have gone wrong simply did recently. Let's just call it a combination of misfortune and some picks that might not have been up to the standard. There have been some big upsets, like Cambuur's home loss against Den Bosch, Heerenveen's draw to Heracles, in which a score of 6-1 would have been more justified, or the 1-0 win of PSV which is probably their worst home result to Sparta this decade. Looking back there are perhaps 3 or 4 picks I disagree with looking back now, but I'm still behind the rest of it, despite losing.

Betting is a long run game and if you can't accept a short slump than so be it and go look at someone else's picks. If you find someone who never has a bad week please call me, since I have yet to find this person. Personally I will try to forget these two weeks as quickly as possible and will continue the way I did and have been doing since March last year, when I started tracking my Dutch Football picks online at martin-verkerk.blogabet.com.

Best of luck to all of you!
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Old 09-15-2008, 05:00 PM   #69
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Due to a major lack of time today all I have for you are the picks, no fancy write-up.

Soccer - Netherlands 09/16 02:00 Helmond Sport v Dordrecht Helmond Sport -0.75 2.16 5/10 188bet
Soccer - Netherlands 09/16 02:00 MVV v Eindhoven Under 3.25 2.21 4/10 10bet
Soccer - Netherlands 09/16 02:00 Zwolle v Emmen Under 3.25 1.89 5/10 10bet
Soccer - Netherlands 09/16 02:00 VVV Venlo v TOP Oss VVV -0.5 @ HT 1.92 3/10 188bet
Soccer - Netherlands 09/16 02:00 VVV Venlo v TOP Oss VVV -1.25 1.94 5/10 10bet
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Old 09-18-2008, 05:49 PM   #70
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

PSV -0.25 @ 1.84 (@ AZ) 6/10
PSV got annihilated at home last Tuesday against in form Atletico Madrid, losing 0-3. The question in these cases always is: How wil it affect their morale and next match? Well I honestly think the effect will be rather small in total. PSV has been playing Champions League for many years now and most of their squad is completely adjusted to it (and with losing as well). To take a statistic out of 2007/2008 season: PSV's result directly after their CL match: 5 wins, 1 loss (17-3). They have a complete and fit squad and despite the big loss, an experienced coach as Stevens should have no trouble in setting them straight and concentrating on the match this weekend.

AZ is something different. I honestly believed that they could get out of last year's slump with some good early results but with a home loss to NAC and a massive 3-0 loss at Ado, the opposite has happened. Coach van Gaal seems to have lost his mind a bit with strange decisions and statements and the players aren't helping him either. Their confidence against PSV will of course be low and with a win in 1998 being their last home succes against PSV, history isn't working in their advantage. The other 9 matches in Alkmaar ended in 2 draws and 7 PSV wins.

Ado +0.25 @ 1.8 (@ De Graafschap) 6/10
De Graafschap really surprised me with their win over Vitesse last week but looking at that match, it was more a case of Vitesse losing the match than de Graafschap actually winning by their own strengths. As I stated earlier they have a poor squad, especially after losing playmaker Schöne last season. They never stood a chance in the first match against NEC. They have a decent striker with Den Ouden, but he isn't getting any younger and better and new signing Bargas is injured at the moment so he can't replace him. Next to this, Chaiat and Fung a Wing are also still out, an attacking midfielder and wing back. Ado has been a lot more impressive and looking at the squad it isn't half bad at all, despite being prompted as a relegation candidate. Zwinkels has been showing great form in the goal, keeping AZ loan goalkeeper Waterman on the bench. In the back they have some strong players as well, combined with offensive full backs, while their midfield is in great shape with Knopper being topscorer. They will miss in form Cornelisse, who scored twice already, but Meric showed he can be a great replacement with a wondergoal in their 3-0 win over AZ. This has given them loads of confidence, especially following their 2-5 win at Sparta and I rate them higher than Sparta here. Form and confidence are in the advantage of the visitors and I rate the squad and tactical skills of their trainer a lot higher as well. No reason for Ado not to be favourite.

Utrecht (-0.25) 1.86 5/10
Loads of pressure here for this match on the home side. Utrecht has had a terrible start to the season with a home loss of 1-5 to PSV and a 2-0 loss at Groningen. Small improvements were notable last week already but the problem is that the season just started too early for them, with late signings as Nesu, Skoubo, Wormgoor, Boussaboun and Cziommer hardly having time to adjust and train with their new teammates. All the players above however are real good signings and should mean a huge improvement. They had a steady week finally without international football and these current odds are just far too high for a club with this quality and also theirs status for being a typical home team with a fanatic crowd. Captain van Dijk is still out, but with players as Silberbauer and Cziommer, that line has had a great quality boost to fill up his spot.

Willem II's only notable absentee is defender Swinkels but can base on a pretty complete squad. Key striker Demouge, who is in great form, had some knee problems earlier this week but should be fit to play. The pressure here will be on Utrecht and I expect these players to be able to deal with it. There is a vast difference in quality and in Utrecht, the home team will win, just like they did last two years (2-0 and 3-0).

NACBreda (+0.5) 1.84 5/10
Roda had a difficult start to the league with fixtures against Twente and Ajax and came out with one point, which is to be expected. They always have a decent squad, good for a midtable finish, but not much more can be expected, especially in this squad. They will be without Hadouir, who is important for their creativity on the midfield, which showed in the two previous matches where he was absent as well. His side hardly created chances and really lacked a typical playmaker. Regular defender de Man, who came from Anderlecht this summer, will also miss the match because of an injury.

NAC had a somewhat strange start this season with a great win at AZ but also a terrible home loss to Willem II. They have built up a decent squad this year once again, with much defensive strength a good playmaker with Reuser and quick counter forwards. This will be a difficult match-up for Roda, who usually perform better against sides whom they can counterpunch themselves. The +0.5 line against these odds is too much for NAC, who have a decent chance to even grab the win here, like they did last season (0-2). They will only miss Idabdelhay and captain de Graaf who has been out for a while.

Emmen (+0.5) 2.19 7/10
Emmen has had a dissapointing start to the season with 4 consecutive losses. Their trainer is under discussion since the qualities are certainly there and after two wins in the first three (pretty lucky however) they now find themselves 16th in the rankings. Their lack of form is clear, but still in now way these odds for them not to lose are justified. RBC is ranked 12th and has been having some ups and downs but can in no way be called one of the better teams in the league. They have just two wins as well and haven't won in their last 3 matches, including a loss to mediocre side Veendam. There are some uncertainties with Emmen, with Valgaeren en Zijm still doubtful but likely to play, next to the already injured goalkeeper Villadsen, defender Wolters and midfielder Haemhouts. Defender Bevaart is also out after his red card last week. For RBC important midfielder Stojanovic has been struggling with injuries but his current status is unclear.

All in all I reckon these sides to be fairly evenly matched. Emmen has more absentees and has been on a terrible streak, but especially in this division streaks get turned around rather quickly. Emmen has great attackers to take the upmost out of the chances they get and still have a lot of defensive stability usually. RBC has a bad defence and has been lacking firepower up front. A draw is the most likely ending here.

Haarlem (+0) 2.13 5/10
If people would have stated before the season that Haarlem would be way above Den Bosch in the rankings after 7 matches they probably would have been shipped away to the nearest mental institution. Den Bosch are always a good side in this league, playing for the top spots and promoting and relegating every couple of years. This season however hasn't been going too well, with a current 10th spot and several injuries along the way with goalkeeper Mäenpää, defender Ebbinge and midfielder Rossen still out, all very important players. New signing Stefano Seedorf also seems to be missing this match. Their current form can be called rather bad, losing in bad fashion against VVV without creating a single chance, and even having a draw at home against Fortuna, who can be rated the worst team in the league.

I have opposed Haarlem several times already and the side kept coming out on top. They might lack overal quality, but the current squad looks very confident and eager with several players standing out, amongst who captain Berck-Beelenkamp and creative forwards Wijks. They aren't facing any real injury trouble and at home they have been lethal last matches, with 3 wins out of 3 matches. I see no reason for them to suddenly lose this, despite the quality that Den Bosch still posesses.

Helmond (+0.25) 1.86 6/10
With three wins in last three away matches against Go Ahead Eagles, Helmond will like the prospects of this match. The present is looking good for them as well. After a bad start with just 1 point in 3 matches, the club is now on a great 4 match winning streak. Go Ahead Eagles has been having some trouble living up to their expectations. They find themselves 15th in the rankings, not winning in last 3 matches and grabbing just 1 win at home. Weak sides as Fortuna and Eindhoven managed to draw here, while only Omniworld lost. Of course this can be turned around by saying they are still unbeaten at home, but with these opponents the first option is more likely to be the overall opinion.

Helmond is on a great run here and looking at Eagles' mediocre form, I give them a good chance to grab a win. Key striker Höcher has been in lethal form and the home side misses a player of that calibre up front. That might just make the difference.
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Old 09-19-2008, 02:29 PM   #71
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Hey Timo what are most likeable overs in this round ? (in Jupiler)
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Old 09-19-2008, 02:44 PM   #72
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by maksim20 View Post
Hey Timo what are most likeable overs in this round ? (in Jupiler)
TOP Oss and Eindhoven matches probably. TOP biggest chance if you ask me.
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Old 09-19-2008, 02:56 PM   #73
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Thanks . Good luck with your tips bro
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Old 09-19-2008, 05:16 PM   #74
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Thanks maksim.

Adding 4/10 on Excelsior -1 @ 2.12

I don't have the time for a write-up anymore, but Eindhoven has many absentees and is just a bad side overall. Excelsior is on fire and have a fit squad. The home side usually is a bit naive, attacking when they don't have the defenders to back it up and this, combined with a bad concentration several periods each match is costing them goals. Efficient Excelsior is just the side to take advantage.
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Old 09-19-2008, 05:46 PM   #75
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

hope your right with utrecht tim
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