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Old 08-15-2008, 11:48 PM   #31
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

RKC went over maksim, hope you took it

For me:
Zwolle won 3-1 (+5.16)
Cambuur won 2-0 (+3.96)
Emmen ended in a draw 1-1 (-4)
Omniworld lost 3-0 (-3)
RKC won 4-1 (+3.44)

In total: +5.56
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Old 08-16-2008, 07:47 AM   #32
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Timotheus View Post
RKC went over maksim, hope you took it

For me:
Zwolle won 3-1 (+5.16)
Cambuur won 2-0 (+3.96)
Emmen ended in a draw 1-1 (-4)
Omniworld lost 3-0 (-3)
RKC won 4-1 (+3.44)

In total: +5.56
solid as always Timo ,congrats
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Old 08-17-2008, 10:30 PM   #33
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

No picks next round. Vacation time for me
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Old 08-18-2008, 12:38 PM   #34
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Boohoo .
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Old 08-19-2008, 02:52 PM   #35
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Timotheus View Post
No picks next round. Vacation time for me
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Old 08-20-2008, 08:58 PM   #36
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Feyenoord vs PSV for the Dutch Super Cup, Saturday in Amsterdam.

Coming weekend we have finally the opening of the Dutch Premier Division, with the traditional game between the champion (PSV) and the cup winner (Feyenoord). Although there might be more value and pride in for this price in the various European countries, in the Netherlands it is just one more 'pre-season friendly' then really a battle for a trophy. Mainly for that reason I was not really sure whether to wager anything at all, during the week I was leaning to PSV to win (still at 2.10 or higher) and now (at Unibet) the odd for PSV to win is 1.92, while on other it is just around evens.

I have picked PSV @ 1.92 5/10 and PSV -1 3.35 (2/10). Why? Mainly because Feyenoord has proved everything I have said earlier about their small squad and what their potential is without leading players. In their whole pre-season campaign they have not beaten a single professional team (varying from foreign top teams to first division Dutch teams), with an astonishing last game against amateurs, losing 2-1. Although that last result shouldn't count for anything, it is an indication of Feyenoord current situation.

On Saturday they will miss Hofland, Lucius, Makaay, De Guzman - whom are all key-players normally, while Slory is unavailable as well. PSV is not missing any important players, while even the players from the Olympic team could join them on Saturday. During the season I am expecting more from PSV then Feyenoord, and with those misses, current morale, current progress, Feyenoord will have it really difficult in this match. PSV is much further, with talented players like Amrabat who has been great during pre-season.

Motivation will be a bit higher in Eindhoven then in Rotterdam, based on trainers reactions, while the atmosphere will be build with 2400 Feyenoord fans, prob equal PSV fans, and the two long sides of the stadium filled with youth teams who were champions last season and join the match for a reduced price.

Getting a price for PSV around evens is a good price to bet on, and because I can see Feyenoord falling apart in the end, I will make a value bet on the handicap @ 3.35.

GL!
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Old 08-21-2008, 12:31 PM   #37
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Latest news, Feyenoord will be missing for sure De Guzman, Makaay, El Ahmadi, Lucius, Ekramy and Slory - as said before, whom are thus all more then potential starters when fit. Hofland is 95% sure that he will miss the game, while Fer, Erasmus, Tomasson, Buijs and Hofs are quite doubtful, all missing today's practice for various reasons.

On Unibet the odd has been lowered to 1.82, while I just took 2.04 on Betfair (PM for refer ) for another three stakes, so it makes 5/10 at 1.92 and 3/10 on 2.04.

Still, not a 100% sure bet - it is still football, but it will be very suprising when PSV is not able to beat a weakened Feyenoord side, with almost their full squad available.
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Old 08-22-2008, 10:01 AM   #38
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Ron Vlaar had to go to hospital with another knee injury, so looks like he is gone for a couple of months again.

With you on PSV, expect a 2-0/3-0 score here.
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Old 08-22-2008, 12:16 PM   #39
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Official: Tomasson won't play.
Get on that 1.90 while you can.
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Old 08-22-2008, 05:33 PM   #40
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Thanks for the news bro. I'm on it
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Old 08-23-2008, 06:44 PM   #41
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

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Originally Posted by Straby View Post
Ron Vlaar had to go to hospital with another knee injury, so looks like he is gone for a couple of months again.

With you on PSV, expect a 2-0/3-0 score here.
win
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Old 08-24-2008, 01:57 AM   #42
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Feyenoord gave it a shot in the first half, second half they were run over .

2-0, +22.94 .

Tomorrow first picks for the first league weekend .
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Old 08-25-2008, 04:06 PM   #43
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Dutch Premier Division First Round 29/8 - 31/8.

1. Vitesse - FC Groningen 2,30 3,30 2,85
2. Willem II - Ajax 5,00 3,75 1,60
3. NEC Nijmegen - De Graafschap 1,68 3,70 4,40
4. Roda JC - FC Twente 2,30 3,30 2,85
5. FC Utrecht - PSV 3,90 3,40 1,85
6. FC Volendam - SC Heerenveen 3,45 3,30 2,00
7. Heracles Almelo - Feyenoord 4,15 3,40 1,80
8. Sparta Rotterdam - ADO Den Haag 1,95 3,30 3,65
9. AZ - NAC Breda 1,70 3,50 4,60

First thoughts per match - certain picks will follow in a next post.

1. The opening match of the season between two equal teams. Many changes at Vitesse, building a new young squad vs Groningen, with a few new players from of course Scandinavia. Tough call, and the only bet I would consider is over 2.5, if the odds will be at least 1.70 or higher. Expect a fun, open and attractive match, but absolutely no clue in which favor it could be.

2. Definitely away win, probably over 2.5 and might use handicap. More explanation later.

3. Should be a home win, but those odds are to low for me. De Graafschap opened very strong last season, while NEC ended very strong. NEC is definitely the better team, but lost quite a lot of important players. De Graafschap might sign a new dangerous striker before the weekend.

4. No bet. Twente has an important game at Arsenal, morale will be depending a lot on that match. Roda is strong at home, but cannot really rate them this early in such a 'big' match. Maybe during the week it could change, but at the moment.. No way.

5. Very high odds for PSV I must say. FC Utrecht is alway a dangerous team for the topclubs at home, and especially PSV have not been always great there. But, Utrecht at the moment is not ready for the competition, and PSV already played a competitive match last Saturday against Feyenoord. Their strikers seemed very aggressive and dangerous, but lacking concentration when finishing.

6. No bet. Heerenveen is the better team, but in the first game, without any good results pre-season and a coach who said they still have a lot of work to do, playing against a promoted side on artificial grass. I am not touching this match, although it just could be an easy win for Heerenveen.

7. Feyenoord showed quite a lot of spirit on Saturday in the first half, although they were missing 12 first-team players, and the whole bench was made up with several youngsters. The expectation at the moment is that only Tomasson will be returning in the squad for this game, and they will still miss De Guzman and Makaay, two important players up front, plus at the back Hofland and Vlaar. 1X should be an interesting bet.

8. An almost relegated team vs a promoted team. No clue. Could be a goalless draw, could be a 4-1, could be a 0-2.

9. Home win for me. AZ was the most underperforming team last season, while NAC was the most overperforming team. This season I expect things to turnaround. AZ is strong, have talented players, an excellent coach and the morale to really perform this year. Everything went wrong that could go wrong and they want to have a good start on Sunday. At NAC, a change in trainers won't do them any favors. They were strong when 1-0 up, defending their lead, but it will be much more difficult this season. They were able to keep one of their main strikers in Lurling, but lost a very important player in Molhoek.
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Old 08-25-2008, 04:48 PM   #44
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Willem II - Ajax: Away win @ 1.60 (7/10).

Earlier in this thread I have described both teams, and the odds for the first match are quite right. 1.60 is still decent enough to go out on Ajax and back them in the first competitive match.

Willem II has not changed much since last season. Pre-season was okay and there were not any really bad or really impressive results scored by Willem II. The new players that have been bought are not really expected to be in the first team directly, and the probable first team will be something like: Aerts , Janse , Schenkel , Swinkels , Veloso , Zijler , Kargbo / Mathijssen , Akgün , Quasten / Mourad , Messoudi en Demouge. That is how they played in the last friendly and I don't expect many changes, maybe a bit more defensive playing midfielders.

Ajax has been very active on the transfermarket as said before, buying Sulejmani, Oleguer, Cvitanich and Sno. New coach Van Basten has made progress, but the results in the friendlies have been far from impressive. The objective is clear in Amsterdam and there is only one thing to be achieved: championship. First game has to be good and the result has to be better. Confidence is high around players and everyone around the club has the same feeling, this has to be a good start. Probable line-up will be Stekelenburg, Silva, Oleguer, Anita / Vermaelen, Schilder / Vertonghen, Gabri, Aissati, Lindgren, Suarez, Huntelaar, Sulejmani/Cvitanich.

Expect a 0-2, 1-2, 1-3 scoreline here. There I will also place bets on the over 2.5 6/10 and might be taking a handicap on Ajax, depending on the odd.

FC Utrecht - PSV: PSV win @ 1.85 (5/10).

Considering the history it are good odds, considering the current situation I expected 1.75 for PSV.. Utrecht has been really awful in pre-season, even in their pre-final friendly getting a draw in a bad game against amateurs. Their striker position is not really filled yet, although they have signed Boussabon and Skoubo, but there is no idea what we still can expect from the two 'oldies'. Silberbauer should be a good signing for the midfield, but one guy will not improve the team as a whole.

PSV will go out on confidence after winning the Supercup. They looked okay and decent, as they have been always. Strikers upfront were dangerous, playing aggressive in many ways and they should win their opening match, although it could turn out to be a tough one. 0-1 is the score I expect, PSV has just to much quality to lose points this weekend already.

AZ - NAC: AZ win @ 1.70 (7/10).

Already said it above a bit. NAC has been surprising last year and AZ was just weak and in a negative vicious circle. NAC lost their important midfielder Molhoek, but kept experienced and dangerous attacker Lurling. Last season their strongest advantage was playing like structured team, and that was basically created by their coach - and he had to leave. Maaskant is very different from Brands, and I would be really surprised when Maaskant is able to come even near to the achievements that Brands got last season. On the other hand, I would be surprised if AZ is playing and getting results like last season. That was just one big disgrace, match after match. They have not been very active in the transfermarket, but got Lens and Luijckx back from loans and Schaars from an injury. It is still a talented team, and doing well, it should be able to compete with Heerenveen, Groningen, Twente.

Home win for me, might add the handicap and take the 2.5 as soon as the odds are out.

GL!
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Old 08-27-2008, 12:40 AM   #45
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009



Fixture: FC Volendam v SC Heerenveen
Pick: Heerenveen to win 5/10 @ 2.1

The first bet of the new Eredivisie season is in and will contain one of my favored teams to bet on last season: SC Heerenveen. The side has lost key striker Sulejmani and coach Verbeek but still will be a dangerous side this season. With Sollied they have an experienced coach to lead them, and he will be looking to build on the succes of last seasons. Some signings were known players to the Dutch fans, like former Feyenoord favorite Bona Kalou (who is out for this match) and talented Ado Den Haag right back Janmaat, and other were more exotic, like Forwards Beda and Elyounoussi, both of whom the fans expect a lot. Neither side had a good run in their friendlies but for both coaches it was just a path to finding rhythm, adjusting to a new way of playing and getting to know each other. Volendam just lacks the quality in their squad for this level of play. Coach Menzo has left them last season, and key players Chaiat, Deul and Quasten as well. Their new signings are all decent for the Jupiler League but will trouble coping with the pace in the Eredivisie, especially with all these inexperienced players. Medium stakes are best for this match, even though my heart is saying to go big on this one. The mind prevails however, and factors like the fact that this is an away game, the grass is artificial, it's a season opening and both sides have new coach make it stay that way for me.


Fixture: Eredivisie Rankings 2008/2009
Pick: Heracles Almelo tb FC Volendam 5/10 @ 2.02

The odds really surprised me here to be honoust. Heracles has proven themselves as a very reliable squad ever since their promotion in 2005, with a 13th, 14th and 14th spot. THey have a nice stadium and play on artificial grass, which has helped them last seasons. There's always a great vibe in the Almelo stadium and they have a reliable training staff and an ambitious chairman. They have lost some good players with experienced Maas and creative players as Gonzalo and Lakic, but also added good young players with Steur and Dost, and I reckon Groningen signing Fledderus to forfill an important role as well. They were in no real trouble last seasons and I can't see why they would be this season.

Volendam is a whole different story. They were a great side in the Jupiler League last season but have lost the coach who made their attacking play possible (Menzo) and I don't rate new coach Adelaar too highly. I don't expect them too have the massive home advantage Heracles has, and there is a big difference in quality as well, with Volendam having great Jupiler League stars, but also players who have little or no experience in the Eredivisie. Their signings are far from impressive, and their better players last season have mostly left, with Deul, Quasten and Chaiat. Others remained at the club, but will have a hard time on this level I expect. Volendam is the main contender for the feared place on the bottom of the rankings if you ask me, so Heracles to beat Volendam in the rankings for me!


Fixture: Eredivisie Champions 2008/2009
Pick: Ajax (1/2 odds for place 1-2) 5/10 @ 2.3 (Gamebookers)


There are two real main contenders for the Dutch Eredivisie this year, which are Ajax and PSV. The rest of them can be considered huge outsiders, looking at squads, coaches, resources and past results. In this write-up, I will therefore focus on PSV and Ajax.

Let's start with the reigning champions: PSV Eindhoven. The club has won last 4 seasons and their main strengths have been a solid defensive mentality with a brilliant goalkeeper (Gomes) behind it. The team has always been stable but last year things seem to have changed a bit, with goalkeeper Gomes being unhappy with club president Reker and Aissati, one of the biggest upcoming talents being far from happy as well, resulting in both their departures and some unhappy signs from other key players as well, mainly midfielder Afellay. Next to this they also lost some creativity with key striker Farfan, who went to Schalke and some quality in defence, with wing back Alcides. This year quantity seems to prevail in Eindhoven, with Rodriguez, Brechet and Pieters for their defence, Isaksson as a new goalkeeper and youngsters Amrabat and Nijland up front. All players are good additions at first sight, but it remains to be seen if they are real improvements. Personally I expect a lot from Amrabat and solid defender Brechet, but the rest of them are just decent, nothing more, nothing less. All in all I think they lack a real goalscorer up front, with Lazovic and Koevermans giving them mixed results. Isaksson is a good goalkeeper but nowhere near the quality of Gomes, which should be costly as well. Expectations are high after last seasons, but this also meant that the usual quietness is gone at the club.

Just like PSV has a new coach with Stevens, Ajax has a new coach with legend Marco van Basten, who will also be accompanied by many former class players on the training pitch, with the likes of Frank de Boer, John van het Schip and Dennis Bergkamp to name a few. The athmosphere at the club seems solid, with unhappy players as Colin and Perez leaving or on their way to leave and Heitinga being the only real important transfer going out. Replacement of Heitinga if Barcelona's Oleguer, who is looking rock solid in the friendlies. Combine this with the addition of last season's revelation Sulejmani (Heerenveen), Argentine Clausura's top striker Cvitanich and PSV's creative talent Aissati and you have a great attacking squad with loads of depth and creativity. Many young players (Anita in defense, de Jong, van der Heijden and Sarpong in the midfield) are on the brink of a real breaktrhough (De Jong played a lot last year already) and Ajax has the best squad by far if you ask me. Last year they gave it away due to bad decisions by interim coach Koster, combined with some bad defending. I expect this to improve a lot with a more realistic van BAsten. The Ajax attack will prove the difference this year, with great creativity always ready to decide the match.

It could be a tight affair and the option Gamebookers offers is just excellent, with more or less a cashback if Ajax ends up second in the league (1/2 of 2.3 = 1.15).
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