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Old 05-08-2009, 10:05 AM   #331
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Jupiler League 08-05, 20:00

Telstar v Fortuna Sittard: 5/10 Under 2.75 @ 1.9 (188bet) Won (1-1) +4.5
Big injury worries for Telstar in this match. The match already has no real importance to them because of the play-offs that start on Tuesday, but they can hardly field a decent front line today. Key striker Plet is ill and his fellow regular striker Koning is out as well. Besides this possible replacements De Rijp, Holwijn and Breeveld are all out as well, just like regular defender Olenski and R/I attacking midfielder Fafiani. Morale is very low at the moment after a very poor series and even with a full squad they are a typical under team at home, with just 2 overs in their last 10 home matches and those 2 overs only had 3 goals in them as well.

Fortuna on the other hand still face a lot of uncertainty because of the club's finances and have been having many ups and downs. They aren't a typical side with unders, with 5 out of last 10 going over on the road (of which 3 had 3 goals). They looked good in their last 2 matches, winning against RKC and MVV, but with the absence of important striker Boymans and in form regular forward Schreurs it will be very difficult for them to score goals here. This looks like it's going to be a horrible match for the fans, but a good one for the betting community.

FC Eindhoven v BV Veendam: 5/10 Eindhoven -0.25 @ 1.88 (188bet) Won (2-1) +4.4
Even though both teams can't reach the play-offs anymore with their poor ranking, there still is something to play for here. Eindhoven have to prove themselves and show their best side to the Dutch FA who have yet to make a decision about the future of the club. Besides this it's their last home match, many players will want to show what they can do still in order to get new contracts/clubs and with a win Eindhoven could skip past Veendam in the rankings as well. The home side can field their best squad, while Veendam is without topscorer Hemmen (benched) and key midfielder Loohuis. They will play with youngster Van Dalen up front. I expect a solid match from the home side here in which the difference in motivation should be the key, very good odds.

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Old 05-09-2009, 04:06 PM   #332
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Ajax v FC Twente: 6/10 FC Twente +0.5 @ 1.94 (188bet) Lost (1-0) -6
Morale at Ajax is very low and this final match of the season isn't really wanted. Coach Van Basten already quit this week (assistent Van 't Schip takes over this one match) and Ajax has nothing left to play for after the loss last week. They only need a single point in order to stay ahead of PSV and have a better UEFA Europa League position, but I doubt if this will even be in the minds of the players. The absentees are major as well. Key striker Suarez is out, which is a huge loss and to make things worse centre forward Cvitanich and regular defender Oleguer will have to miss this match as well. The front line is very poor now and this usually is their best asset. Besides these absentees goalkeeper Vermeer is out as well, but with Stekelenburg replacing him this should be an improvement. Twente on the other hand have a cup final next week, but will start with all their regulars, except for right back Stam, who was injured last week as well. Coach McClaren stated that it is vital for them to stay in the winning mood and that this still is a big match, despite the fact that it is of no importance to the rankings. No way these odds are justified. I would put the handicap a quarter ball lower at least.

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Old 05-10-2009, 02:50 PM   #333
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Twente were very poor and lost deserved, still a good profit after Friday though.

Time to settle all the season bets I made over the run of this season:

6/10 Suarez tb Tomasson @ 2.1 (Unibet) Won (22-9) +6.6
8/10 Suarez topscorer (tb El Hamdaoui) @ 1.8 (Unibet) Lost (22-23) -8
6/10 Berg tb N'Kufo @ 2.25 (Unibet) Won (17-16) +7.5
5/10 Heracles tb Volendam (rankings) @ 2.02 (Bwin) Won +5.1
4/10 Cvitanich tb Ari @ 3.2 (UNibet) Push (9-9) +0
6/10 Sulejmani tb Lazovic @ 1.9 (Unibet) Push ( 8-8 ) +0

In total for season bets: +12.6
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Old 05-14-2009, 04:40 PM   #334
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

FC Dordrecht v TOP Oss (Jupiler League Play-Offs): 4/10 Dordrecht -1.25 @ 2.02 (188bet) Half lost (1-0) -2
In a tough match this Tuesday Dordrecht already managed to grab a 0-2 away win and because of this the result over 2 matches is almost decided already. Despite this I really like this -1.25 handicap here. TOP home and away are a big difference and after the result earlier this week I can't see the team getting past this mentally. A walk-over by Dordrecht is a lot more likely to me than a competitive match. For Dordrecht important defender Kras is back from a suspension and they can field their best squad in front of their packed home crowd. The stadium is sold out and a good match is what the fans expect. TOP are without key striker Quekel. He is their only expected absentee.

MVV v Telstar(Jupiler League Play-Offs): 6/10 MVV -1.25 @ 2.07 (188bet) Half lost (1-0) -3
The 0-0 draw on Tueday at Telstar was very dissapointing for MVV and they are now the clear favourites to decide this encounter at home. They have a far better squad than Telstar and even though the first match was in the balance, with even a slight edge for Telstar, I can't see the visitors trouble MVV here. Telstar have been in horrible form ever since surprisingly winning a period title and in no way deserve to be in this position. They had just 1 win in their last 11 matches as well. To make things worse key striker Plet is uncertain due to an injury as well. The stadium will be packed for MVV, who are a very good home side. 4 out of their last 5 matches at home ended in a win by 2 or more goals as well and they have a full squad available. Compared to Tuesday regular defender Haastrup returns from a suspension and creative midfielder Brüls is fit for 90 minutes again.

FC Twente v Heerenveen (Cup Final): 6/10 Twente -0.25 @ 1.82 (188bet) Half Lost (1-1) -3
This match is on Sunday and both teams have the luxory of being able to field their best squad (except for Heerenveen long term absentee Vayrinenen, a regular midfielder). This is the final match of the season for both teams and a huge match of course. Twente has been the best of the sides in the regular season. They surprisingly finished second in the league and they have a great squad available under the reign of coach McClaren. They have loads of creativity up front with wingers Elia and Arnautovic and a lethal striker with N'Kufo. Behind this a very stable midfield and back line are formed and with Perez they have a typical "number 10" attacking midfielder as well. Heerenveen on the other hand ended 5th in the league, which is good for them as well, but haven't really been impressive lately. Coach Sollied has been making many alterations to his front line week in week out and to me this has been the mane reason for this. Heerenveen are a side that need many goals and a lot of creativity, but lately this hasn't been showing. In the league they had just 1 win, very unconvincing against the nr 18 as well, in the last 7 matches and there has been a lack of goals as well. Earlier this season Twente annihilated Heerenveen at home with 6-0 and held them to a 1-1 in Heerenveen. I rate Twente a lot higher here in this match played in a neutral venue (Rotterdam). I expect Twente to keep things tight at the back and take the most out of Heerenveen's weakest aspect; which is the back line. A perfect match-up for their strikers.

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Old 05-15-2009, 10:25 AM   #335
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

News on the MVV bet:
News came out today that the club was unable to pay the players' salaries on time this month. This has happened before in the past and has caused some disharmony at the club. I already noticed that the odds are around 2.07 again after dropping a lot yesterday and I guess this is the reason for it. Things like this can of course affect morale in such a matter that it also affects the results, so this makes things a bit more tricky. Despite this I'm still confident about the bet at these odds and I can't see this affecting a play-off match as much as it might have with just "some" league game.
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Old 05-27-2009, 11:30 AM   #336
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

5/10 De Graafschap +0.5 v RKC @ 1.83 (all asians) Lost (2-0) -5
Regular defender Hese (proper back-up) and regular midfielders Jungschlager and Wuytens are out for De Graafschap. Wuytens have been playing well during the play-offs, but he is the only absentee that I rate as a real miss. To me the absence of regular defender Van Mosselveld for RKC is at least as big. The facts are simple. De Graafschap are a side from the Eredivisie and several of their players can make the difference. Goalkeeper Heijblok and striker Ben Sahar are by far the most important to me and creative striker Assaidi, who was out for the biggest part of the season, has been in brilliant form during the play-offs. The only negative aspect to De Graafschap at the moment is the fact that they weren't too impressive against MVV. Pure individual skill gave them most of the goals during the 2-3 win at MVV and the 2-2 draw at home, but their back line has been a bit shaky, mostly because they played too defensive and let the pressure get onto their back line. RKC on the other hand have had many, many ups and downs this season, but have a good squad. They had a lucky win at Excelsior (going from 1-0 to 1-2 after a red card in the 85th minute) and at home they were horrible, drawing 1-1 in the end, but really deserving a loss.

Anyway, to wrap things up. De Graafschap have more experience of playing at a higher level and I expect individual skill to make the difference here. Except for Wuytens I don't rate the absentees too highly. With Volmer and Keller they have a very experienced duo at the centre back and with Oost joining the midfield they are a bit more attacking, which is something the team needs if you ask me. I took a very small punt on the ML as well at 3.85 even. Prior to seeing the odds I would have given De Graafschap a +0.5 @ 1.6/1.65 maximum, so I was surprised to even see the line at asians.
Expected line-up for De Graafschap: Heijblok; Nalbantoglu, Volmer, Keller, Fränkel; Van den Ouweland, Meijer, Buijs, Oost; Assaidi, Sahar.

5/10 Cambuur Leeuwarden +0.25 @ 1.95 (all asians) Half won(0-0) +2.38
With 2 good matches against Zwolle Cambuur managed to secure this spot in the play-off final. The match in Zwolle was lost 2-1 with 2 attempts from distance, but at home things were a lot better with 3-1 and eventually 2-0 in the deciding 3rd match. Cambuur have the best crowd support in the league probably, with another packed stadium tonight with 10.000 people, which brings quite the extra edge for the home side. They will field exactly the same squad as in their previous 2 matches and coach Menzo stated that they are in a clear winning mood. Another advantage they have is that they have a very strong bench with a creative player (Chery) and a typical target man (De Vries), who gave them the win in the 3-1 match against Zwolle. Roda on the other hand are the side coming from the Eredivisie, but in the play-offs they have been very unconvincing. It was a miracle that they salvaged a draw away at Dordrecht, where a 2-0 loss would have been a more fair result. At home they won 1-0 and improved a bit. They face several absentees today. Regular defender De Jong is suspended and regular midfielder Vormer injured. Up front the problems are a lot bigger. They have 4 real strikers. Oper, Yulu-Matondo and back up striker van Tornhout are all out. Their most important striker Cissé, who is the only 1 left, is unfit as well, and there is a big chance of him not being fit enough to play or play for 90 minutes. With all these problems I can't see an already struggling side win the away match here. I had expected a DNB line around evens.

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Old 06-02-2009, 10:39 AM   #337
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

7/10 Cambuur DNB v Roda JC @ 2.05 (asians)
Took the bet at SBO myself. Things for Roda are looking quite bad at the moment. This is the third and deciding leg in the promotion/relegation play-offs and it is played at Cambuur, because the matches ended in 0-0 (at Cambuur) and 1-1 (Roda) before. It's a bit strange to use a deciding leg then, but that's just how we Dutchies are. Anyway, Roda are without key striker Cissé and S/R defender Addo for this match because of international duty, which is very painful. Besides this key midfielder and captain Meeuwis is suspended, just like regular midfielder Willem Janssen. Regular striker Yulu-Matondo, back up striker van Tornhout and regular midfielder Vormer are certainly out. Regular/important striker Oper (probably fit in time) and regular defender De Wree are still doubtful. Cambuur has no worries at all, except for regular defender Brack, for whom they have sufficient back up. He was sent off in the last match, but there is a rather big chance that the red card will not stand because of a referee's mistake.

Looking at the matches between these sides Cambuur should be the clear favorites at home, especially with these Roda absentees. At Cambuur it was a miracle that the home side were unable to win. They dominated 90 minutes and had tons of chances (0-0). At Roda things were more evenly matched (1-1). I can't look past the ambitious Cambuur side here for promotion. They have a great home crowd in a sold out stadium and have a very strong squad with a good bench as well, which should make the difference if needed. This match can be considered a final. A draw after 90 minutes results in extra time and possibly penalties.
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Old 06-03-2009, 10:26 PM   #338
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Cambuur 1-1 FT, 2-2 AET and lost after pen. Haven't seen anything yet, but Roda scored 1-1 in the 86th min

Bet is a push.
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Old 07-04-2009, 03:11 PM   #339
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5/10 Groningen v Brondby Under 3 @ 2 Lost (2-2) -5

Groningen are the clear favs here in this match played in a small village near Groningen (19.00 tonight). They are severely handicapped however. Sweden U21 star and key striker of Groningen is Marcus Berg and he is out for this match. The same can be said about 4 out of 5 other strikers in their squad! Andersson and Kluin are two of them, but more important are Matavz and Pedersen, who scored 11 goals in total in their friendlies thusfar against amateur sides. To me this is plenty of reason to go for the under 3 here. The line is rather high and even though I know Brondby as a more attacking side, I can't see many goals here. Without the mentioned players Groningen has a poor squad and I really can't see them give a good display here.

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Old 07-07-2009, 02:48 PM   #340
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6/10 PSV -1 @ RKC Waalwijk @ 2.09 (asians) Lost (2-2) -6

PSV has a very strong squad this season. Weak link in the back line was Brechet to me and he is replaced by Dutch international Ooijer. Besides this another Dutch international joined the squad: Midfielder Engelaar. Striker Toivonen will miss this match after his appearance at the U21's for Sweden, but besides this I expect their best squad with perhaps 1 or 2 alterations. This is PSV's first real test, but after having played 4 matches against amateur teams already, they are well on their way in the preparations. This can't be said about RKC, a side that is newly promoted to the Eredivisie. They only had 1 match thusfar, against amateurs, and are still in the period of testing players and trying to get new players. Therefore I really don't get this -1 line. There is a huge difference in class already and there is an even bigger difference in the stage of season preparations here.

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Old 07-22-2009, 04:46 PM   #341
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6/10 VVV Venlo -1.25 v FC Oss @ 2.08 (asians)

VVV have really impressed me thusfar during their friendlies. The newly promoted Eredivisie side have thusfar managed to hold on to key playmaker Honda and had 2 great results with a 2-2 draw against Feyenoord, in which they even deserved more, and a great 2-1 win over RC Genk. They have been implementing 3 test players who whill be probably used today as well. Two unknown Nigerians and defender H. Drost, who should be a decent improvement for them. Besides this young Porto talent Viana has joined on loan and he is making an impression already. Another key signing is goalkeeper Gentenaar from Ajax, who will become a key player I expect and creative forward Ahahaoui who should become squad/regular, but adds some depth. I expect a strong squad here in this match played at a smaller club in Venlo, so not in the regular stadium. FC Oss are the team from my home town and they haven't impressed me at all. They had the luxory of losing just one regular player, which is quite rare for a team like Oss, but are also without key striker Quekel for a while due to a bad injury. Forwards Fachtali and Moutawakil (Both R/I) were injured for a big part of the preseason and lack rhythm as well. The Eredivisie starts sooner than the Jupiler League, which means that VVV are more advanced in their preseason. Oss lost 4-1 to ADO and 3-1 to RKC already, who I rate around the same level as VVV (or perhaps a bit lower even). This should be a solid win for VVV.
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Old 07-25-2009, 07:35 AM   #342
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

A new season Tim.

Who do you like?

I'll be keeping my eye on FC Twente, who were very impressive last year under McLaren. They have a talented young Aussie in their squad named Nikita Rukavytsa, lots of pace, one to look out for.
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Old 07-30-2009, 08:49 PM   #343
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Consigliere View Post
A new season Tim.

Who do you like?

I'll be keeping my eye on FC Twente, who were very impressive last year under McLaren. They have a talented young Aussie in their squad named Nikita Rukavytsa, lots of pace, one to look out for.
New season, new topic. Just put down a big ass season preview
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