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Old 07-30-2008, 02:14 PM   #1
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Default Dutch Football 2008/2009

I'll be focussing a lot on Dutch football the upcoming season, even more than tennisbetting. Last year worked out nicely and I'm hoping to continue it this season. Here are the records from the moment I started put my picks online:

Tracking Date: 8 Maart 2008
Leagues: Nederlandse Eredivisie & Jupiler League
Reference: http://martin-verkerk.blogabet.com

Jupiler League:
Bets: 34
Staked: 168 units
Return: 223.94 units
Profit: 55.94 units
ROI: 133.30%
Hitrate: 70.59%

Eredivisie:
Bets: 39
Staked: 216 units
Return: 325.39 units
Profit: 109.39 units
ROI: 150.64%
Hitrate: 71.79%

Total Dutch leagues:
Bets: 73
Staked: 384 units
Return: 549.33 units
Profit: 165.33 units
ROI: 143.05%
Hitrate: 71.23%

New website: http://dutchhandicap.blogabet.com/

Last edited by Timotheus : 08-08-2008 at 04:07 PM.
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Old 07-30-2008, 02:15 PM   #2
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

AZ Alkmaar v Telstar
Pick: AZ Alkmaar -1 @ 1.81 6/10

A friendly here today between two teams who are coming from the same region. The game will be played in Wormerveer, a neutral venue, but pretty close to both Alkmaar and Velsen, where the two teams are from. Many fans are expected, mostly from AZ.

AZ has played 3 matches thusfar: Fortuna Wormerveer (0-10), vv Noordwijk (0-3) and sv Urk (0-12). Decent results and no goals conceded. This is the first professional team they face but surely not a good side, with Telstar perhaps being one of the weaker sides out there. AZ were the underperformers last year in the Eredivsie but they still have a great squad with loads of potential. They will be without there Olympic players Luickx (squad player, midfield), Jaliens (important defender), Dembele (important striker), Martens (important midfielder but has been out for a year) and Pocognoli (defender, squad player). They are however with new signings Swerts, Moisander and Holman and also have Didulica, Schaars and Luirink back from an injury which cost them last season. With other good players as Donk, De Zeeuw, Mendes Da Silva, Medunjanin, El Hamdaoui (all A internationals or (former) under 21 internationals) combined with strikers Pellè and Ari the side should outclass Telstar.

The Velsen side beat amateurs from a local selection in Den Helder 4-0 and continued with a 1-0 loss versus Utrecht, a 3-0 loss against Sheffield Wednesday and a 1-1 draw against Den Haag. With the amount of fans expected, the rhythm AZ already has and the huge difference in quality I just can't see them giving away anything in this match.

FC Utrecht v TOP Oss
Pick: FC Utrecht -1 @ 2.08 4/10

This also is a friendly, played in Utrecht (not in the stadium). TOP had a great start to their friendly campaign, beating Derby County 2-0 and beating Romanian side Universitatea-Craiova 2-0. It wasn't always sunny however for the Oss' side, also losing to the VVCS team (a team with players who don't have a contract at a club) 2-0 and conceding a big loss against RBC 3-0, after which the players stated that they are having some trouble with the massive amount of matches being played. They recovered with a 1-1 draw against RKC but then again had a far too busy schedule last weekend, with a match on Saturday against Roda JC, losing 1-0, and on Sunday against a mix of first and reserve squad players of Twente, which ended in a 1-1 draw. Captain Schoofs and other players complained about the fatigue and won't be too happy with another match coming up today and because of this also cancelled the match against Vitesse in a couple of days. Utrecht has started their preparations a lot later because of the later start of the Eredvisie this season and played just two matches, losing to Greek side Xanthi 2-3 and beating a local Utrecht side 1-3. Again there is a massive difference in quality with a pretty complete Utrecht side. Players as Dickoh, Silberbauer, Van der Gun, Loval, George and Cornelisse should all be playing here and I expect a Utrecht win to say the least. A 1 goal win will mean a push, but I expect them to cover here.
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Old 07-30-2008, 06:57 PM   #3
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

AZ wins 6-1, Utrecht wins 6-2.
Amazing scores
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Old 07-31-2008, 02:51 AM   #4
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

I wonder if Alkmaar have returned back to there good old offense. If i recall, 05/06 was a disastrous season for them being pipped at the end by PSV. I was watching the game and 2 reds for Alkmaar vs Sparta i think. I was thinking a fix, but why in a must win last game. Was very strange. Biggest let down for them.
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Old 07-31-2008, 02:48 PM   #5
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jig-Jag View Post
I wonder if Alkmaar have returned back to there good old offense. If i recall, 05/06 was a disastrous season for them being pipped at the end by PSV. I was watching the game and 2 reds for Alkmaar vs Sparta i think. I was thinking a fix, but why in a must win last game. Was very strange. Biggest let down for them.
AZ was great in that season but was overperforming at that time..almost impossible to keep up. They relied on goals of Koevermans (now PSV) and Arveladze (quit) and the strikers they bought after they left couldn't fill up the gap (Graziano Pelle and Ari). Neither of them is a real goalscorer. They still have Belgian international Dembele who is a key attacker, but he isn't the type of striker who scores too many goals. If you combine this with the fact that captain Schaars was out the entire season, key midfielder Martens was also out for the entire year and the fact that important wing back Steinsson was transferred and key defender Mathijsen as well just makes it impossible to live up to the expectations. What they have this season is a very young squad once again but with talents I wouldn't rank as hihghly as in the past. They have players as Koenders,Holman, El Hamdaoui, Swerts, Moisander and Da Silva, who ALL failed at Ajax or Feyenoord in the past...that's quite strange to see.

I think they should reach the UEFA cup, but they can't be considered as title candidates.
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Old 08-01-2008, 01:04 PM   #6
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Going to finish up the write up for this season today or tomorrow. Going to be an interesting season, probably will miss the first three months though...
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Old 08-01-2008, 01:54 PM   #7
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahli View Post
Going to finish up the write up for this season today or tomorrow. Going to be an interesting season, probably will miss the first three months though...
Why will you miss them? Looking forward to the preview
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Old 08-02-2008, 11:55 AM   #8
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Okay, just some basic thoughts, advices and ideas for the new season. First of all, as everyone betting and following the football, I have a favorite team which should make me biased in some bets. I am a huge Ajax fan, even with season ticket, so that is my bias. I will make it as objective as possible, keep it to facts and figures, not towards personal favorites .

The Champion:
Well, it in my eyes it will be a two-horse race again between Ajax and PSV with Ajax as winner.

Feyenoord is building and building, but at the moment it is all build on the oldies. Timmer in the goal, De Cler in defense, Van Bronckhorst in midfield, Makaay and Tomasson upfront. Great names, great careers, but it is not the quality anymore that they have to compete with. Sure, Feyenoord still has some talent around with Bruins, DeGuzman and Wijnaldum - but the defense is just mediocre and not good enough to compete with PSV or Ajax. Further their squad is just too small to have a good replacement when someone falls away. Tomasson and Makaay were unavailable yesterday; they played with Mols and Biseswar... Although Verbeek is an excellent coach, he will just hope for the best with this team.

SC Heerenveen and FC Twente are getting closer to the traditional top 3 we had for years with Ajax, PSV and Feyenoord. They are already on the same level as Feyenoord at the moment to be honest. Both teams have great management, great scouts, well-invested and this season both a new trainer. Sollied at Heerenveen and McClaren at Twente. Heerenveen lost one of their key players in Sulejmani, while also Zuiverloon left them. They bought great talent again, with Janmaat, Popov and Elyounoussi, plus the experience of Bona Kalou. I always have liked Heerenveen as a team, their style and players - they founded great players in the past and will probably have again, but being better over 34 games then Ajax and PSV? No, not this season.

FC Twente will play in the qualification of the CL vs. Arsenal, tough match up. They lost their trainer Rutten, replaced by McClaren. They've lost Engelaar and El-Ahmadi, the heart of the midfield. They bought Tiote and Janssen, while they got Rajkovic of Chelsea on loan. In my opinion they were playing so well last year due to the trainer and the two guys in midfield, plus an excellent defense. But this season it will not be as good as last season. Their attack is decent, their midfield is ok, their defense is above decent and they have an experienced goalie. But I cannot see McClaren building a really good team like they were last year.

So, why didn't I mention NAC, number 3 of last season? They were in a flow coached by an excellent trainer who got them playing like a real team in a perfect tactic. This season, new coach, new players, new plans - and right back at where they belong, around 7 or 8. Maybe.

The last one who could give the two teams a run for their money could be AZ. They were on the top of world two seasons ago with a third place, a good run in the UEFA Cup and a cup final. They were absolutely useless last season. Not a team, not any quality, not any name worthy result or performance. Even defending in the end to stay above the relegation zone. This season they will be up and running again, but I don't know how they will be playing. I think it is very important that Schaars has returned from injuries, while they got some decent young players as well. It will be probably be a battle with Feyenoord, Twente and Heerenveen for the European places in the end of the season.

Ajax or PSV it is.

Ajax has spent a lot of money, buying Sulejmani for 16m, Cvitanich for 6m, Aissati for 4m and Oleguer for 4m. And it has been invested in all quality players. There has been a complete make-over in Amsterdam. New board, new chairman, new director and a new coaching staff - and they all breathe one thing: Ajax. Van Basten and Van 't Schip have joined Ajax together after coaching the Dutch national team for 4 years, and they just want to bring their former club back at where it should be, the top of the table. Ajax has the most dangerous players up front of the whole league. Suarez, 17 goals and 14 assists, Huntelaar 33 goals and Sulejmani 15 goals and 10 assists. And that was in the first season of Suarez at Ajax and the first season of Sulejmani on the highest level. You can only think they should be even better now. Then there are still players like Luque, Perez, Aissati, De Jong, Leonardo, and Kennedy walking around. In the defense a much needed experienced defender has been bought in the name of Oleguer, while probably Wielaert will be an Ajacied soon as well.

On the other hand we have PSV. They have sold Gomes and Farfan, and bought Isaksson, Rodriguez, Brechet and Amrabat. Every season people say there has been so much change in Eindhoven; they can't be competing for the championship! And every time they do and win it. That was for the last 4 seasons. When they were coached by Hiddink it was an excellent team, when Koeman was there coach it was mediocre, but still winning. Last season it was unbelievable messy, with three different coaches and a big bomb exploding after the season, but hey, still champions! Thing is, they haven't been dominating, but they had a really good goalie Gomes, who really have saved points for the team. And now he is gone. There is again a new trainer in Stevens. There are again new players to be fit in. But it will be still a decent and experienced team. Lazovic, Koevermans, Amrabat and new guy Manco, plus perhaps Jovanovic from Standard - they are decent strikers, but they are not as dangerous as Suarez and Sulejmani of Ajax.

At the moment I seriously and honestly rate Ajax as the best team. Quality wise, team wise and motivation wise. PSV will be a good 2nd, while I think Heerenveen will be better then Feyenoord and Twente over 34 matches. Still, the deadline for transfers is a still a month long, but as far as Ajax, probably another defender will be coming, and Huntelaar might leave, but that is a very small chance. PSV is aiming for a striker, prob Jovanovic, and there is a small chance Affelay might leave. Feyenoord has no money for any players, while Heerenveen still as a bunch left. Maybe a new goalie.

The bets:
Ajax tb champion @ 2.30 (unibet) 6/10
Heerenveen tb Feyenoord @ 2.35 2/10
Ajax tb Feyenoord + PSV tb Feyenoord @ 1.51 4/10


Later today I will post the preview for the rest and the first weekend of the season.
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Old 08-02-2008, 01:13 PM   #9
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Nice quality write up man.
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Old 08-02-2008, 02:17 PM   #10
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Well, I've covered now kind of the top 6 with Ajax, PSV, Heerenveen, AZ, Feyenoord and Twente. In between the top and the bottom of the league there is a group of clubs who are fighting for the places 7 to 12 kind of. Groningen, Utrecht, NEC, NAC, Vitesse and Roda JC. Every season there is one extremely good, and one is just fighting against relegation. For me, Groningen is the closest to make it the teams above difficult in a structural way. They have a stable organization, their trainer Jans is going in to his 6th season I believe, and an excellent striker in Berg.

As I said before, NAC had an excellent season last year; they were winning a lot, but mostly 1-0's. Their tactic was perfect, as soon as they got 1-0 up, game was over. In the end of the season, during the playoffs, it fell all apart and they got just Intertoto, in which they recently lost vs. Rosenborg. Their new coach is a bit of a big mouth and was supposed to be working in the top already, but actually he is not that good of a coach. And one of the main advantages of NAC was their coach last season. It definitely won't be top5 this season for NAC.

Then we have NEC. They were at the bottom of the table December 2007. They were 8th 4 months later. It was an excellent run, with great football, great comebacks as well. It was a very decent team. But they lost several key players like Lens and Holman. Together with playing in Europe for at least one round, it will be a tough season for them, probably around place 8-9-10 again.

Roda, Utrecht and Vitesse are left to discuss from this group. I never get a good grip on these teams. There is a bit of class in every single one of them. It is always winning from PSV in an excellent game, week after losing from Volendam at home and then draw against Groningen again. I can't just call how they will play. They all always hang around the places 7 to 11. If I would have to pick the best of these three on basis of players bought, quality and potential; I would be going for Vitesse. They have another experienced coach after De Mos in Westerhof, they got talented players like Jenner, Drost, Molhoek and Tarvajarvi to replace players like Janssen, Van der Schaaf and Swerts.

Roda lost important players and haven't got much back for it, while a graph recently showed that they are the only team in the Eredivisie that has not had any growth in their budget for 5 seasons. Utrecht lost a good talent in Pieters to PSV, but they got a good player in Silberbauer and supposedly two new strikers.

So, 6 teams left: Sparta, Heracles, Willem II, FC Volendam, ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap.
FC Volendam and ADO Den Haag promoted from the first division, while De Graafschap saved them from relegation last season in the play-offs. Sparta was 13, Heracles 14 and Willem II 15. First thought is FC Volendam to end last. I must be honest to tell that I haven't seen them play that much last season. Apparently they were playing decent football, attractive goal scoring football - but their coach has left. They have loaned some experienced players, but to say that will help them survive? I don't know.

ADO has invested a bit more in defense and a new coach. Big plans for one of the largest cities in the Netherlands to have a similar large football club. Wetzel has experienced relegation football as coach of VVV last season, most of the players have been playing in the Eredivisie as well. Will it be good enough to avoid relegation? Maybe.

Sparta has lost important players and is making a new team. I don't really now how they will cope with the changes in the team, although everyone is used to what kind of football they have to play this season. They lost Westerveld, Boukhari, Emnes and Schenkel; plus club idol Polak. They got Touzani, Van Gessel, Poepon and Wilusz. It will be a very tough season for the second club of Rotterdam.

De Graafschap is kind of in a similar situation. They lost playmakers Schone and Tarvarjavi, plus goalie Van Fessem. But they have signed Den Ouden, Oost and Aissadi. It will be depending on the first games for these two teams what kind of season they will be having. Keeping close or being at the bottom immediately.

Willem II is another team as above mentioned. Although they even reached CL once, that seems like a century ago. Last couple of seasons it just has been going downhill. It will be another season of this. Although the players are not even that bad, the coach is really not the best, and they don't have the players for the football they need to play. Boutahar, Mourad, Messoudi, Zijler - nice technical players, but in the relegation zone they need players that can fight for the points. While it is not even so much less quality then Utrecht for instance, their first 6 matches are Ajax (H), NAC (A), Utrecht (A), AZ (H), Vitesse (A) and Feyenoord (H). Big chance they have only 3 points in total after that run, and that is not a start you want. It will get messy, it will get harder, and there will be more friction.

Heracles is the last team and I actually think they are the best of the 6. They have some good players, their coach is excellent. The team is a bit similar like Heerenveen on a lower level. In the end of the competition they should have been able to be better then any of the other teams. They lost some elder experienced players, but they still have some talented and quality players to keep their heads above relegation, definitely.

For my seasons bets that would be:
Heracles tb Willem II @ 2.10 3/10
Vitesse tb Utrecht @ 2.10 2/10
NEC tb Roda JC @ 1.88 3/10

Probably will be making combinations of some as well, as the previous mentioned.

Any questions on anything I am happy to answer .
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Old 08-02-2008, 03:09 PM   #11
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

I'll be diving into your write-ups just after this Dahli. Have two picks ready, both starting in 23 minutes


NEC Nijmegen v Sparta Rotterdam
Pick: NEC -0.5 @ 1.93 3/10


This friendly match is part of a tournament, the " Maritiem Toernooi". The schedule is listed here:

Thursday 31 July
17.30 uur Sparta Rotterdam - Young Ajax 4-0
19.30 uur Helders local Squad - NEC Nijmegen 0-2

Saturday 2 August
17.30 uur NEC Nijmegen - Sparta Rotterdam
19.30 uur Jong Ajax - Helders Elftal

There are only 5 subs permitted and this can be considered the tournament final. Last match NEC's squad was:
Gabor Babos (46' Rein Baart), Dani Fernandez, Jonas Olsson, Peter Wisgerhof, Youssef El-Akchaoui, Kristzian Vadocz (46' Saidi Ntibazonkiza), Mark Otten (46' Mark van den Boogaart), Lasse Schone (62' Tim Janssen), Lorenzo Davids, Rutger Worm (46' Coskun Kayhan), Joel Tshibamba (62' Dominique Kivuvu).

I consider this their main squad with all key players in the formation. There has been a penalty shoot-out after the matches and since NEC lost their shoot-out they will have to win this match to grab the title. It all sounds a bit strange but I can realise that even with these types of friendlies the chance to win a prize is a good bonus. I rate NEC a lot higher than Sparta, despite the fact they lost key midfielder Holman and striker Lens (both went to AZ). Sparta is just a very mediocre side, always ranked near the bottom and they have lost their best striker as well, with Marvin Emnes. Neither side has had any meaningful results from friendlies and can consider this their first real test. Low stakes therefore.



RBC Roosendaal v AZ Alkmaar
Pick: AZ -0.5 @ 1.7 3/10 and AZ -1.25 @ 2.16 3/10

As stated already in my previous AZ pick, the side has some Olympic absentees but still contains loads of quality. I can use my earlier write-up once again partially:
"AZ has played 3 matches thusfar: Fortuna Wormerveer (0-10), vv Noordwijk (0-3) and sv Urk (0-12). Decent results and no goals conceded. "......" AZ were the underperformers last year in the Eredivsie but they still have a great squad with loads of potential. They will be without there Olympic players Luickx (squad player, midfield), Jaliens (important defender), Dembele (important striker), Martens (important midfielder but has been out for a year) and Pocognoli (defender, squad player). They are however with new signings Swerts, Moisander and Holman and also have Didulica, Schaars and Luirink back from an injury which cost them last season. With other good players as Donk, De Zeeuw, Mendes Da Silva, Medunjanin, El Hamdaoui (all A internationals or (former) under 21 internationals) combined with strikers Pellč and Ari the side should outclass their opponents".

They have beaten Telstart very comfortably, playing with their regular squad the first hour and taking it to 5-0 (6-1 in the end). I rate RBC higher than Telstar and RBC has home advantage, but there still is a massive difference. RBC's preparations have had their ups and downs, beating TOP Oss, losing to Ado and drawing to Omniworld. RBC will start with their league matches in a week already, but a match like this one is of a lot of importance for AZ as well, in building up their confidence and getting a rhythm. I can see them winning this with 2 or 3 goals margin to be honoust.
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Old 08-02-2008, 03:27 PM   #12
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Really like the write-up Dahli. Some things I would like to add:
I don't believe it is possible to put this in a combo: Ajax tb Feyenoord + PSV tb Feyenoord @ 1.51 4/10

I agree with you predictions. I have to add that I am a fan of Ajax as well, but with the quality they have this year I just can't see them giving it away. Finally a solid defender with Oleguer and great variety and quality up front. Key factor however remains Huntelaar. I am still worried he might be leaving, especially after van Basten stated that anything can happen. For the rest I agree with most things, but I would rate AZ higher now that Martens, Luirink and especially Schaars are back from long term injuries. I would also be carefull with the early betting. Nothing is what it used it be this year and every side has a new coach it seems: Ajax, PSV, Feyenoord, Heerenveen, NAC and Twente. This is just amazing. Sollied at Heerenveen has been unable to convince thusfar and it's unsure how good the new players will be. What is certain is that Sulejmani is a huge loss and there is the more than decent chance that Pranjic and Bradley will be leaving as well.

I agree with your bets on Heracles and Vitesse but don't agree on NEC tb Roda. Roda is more stable in the upper regions and always find a way to get decent results. This is more or less a coinflip. My prediction for rock bottom is either Sparta or De Graafschap (depending on transfers of course). Let's wait and see how things are at the end of August.
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Old 08-02-2008, 05:30 PM   #13
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

Another perfect day
RBC - AZ 1-3 (1-1)
NEC - Sparta 3-1 (2-0)
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Old 08-03-2008, 04:48 PM   #14
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

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Originally Posted by Timotheus View Post
Another perfect day
RBC - AZ 1-3 (1-1)
NEC - Sparta 3-1 (2-0)
Congrats Timo why do you choose Dutch football?
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Old 08-03-2008, 06:59 PM   #15
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Default Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009

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Congrats Timo why do you choose Dutch football?
Thanks mate. I am Dutch so the choice is obvious.
Extra advantage it brings is the fact that bookies and other betters aren't as well informed as with Premier League football for instance.

I also write weekly match reports for both leagues so this helps me a lot to remain well informed about all teams and players as well.
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