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Old 05-01-2008, 09:57 AM   #1
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Default New AFL System.. Can it work??

OK I am going to have a crack at this new system on top of my other weekly AFL plays, i have no idea if it will work in the long term or not, just testing the waters for now but wanted to share it with you all.

If i do not make profit this week (rd7) i will crack the shits and abandon it

Anyway it is fairly simple:

Each week i will put a certain amount on every game, where i will back the team i think will win the match to win between 1-39 points. In most cases this will be paying 2.10-2.20

We will start this week off with a wager of $100 on each game


I will post my round 7 plays here tomorrow.
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Old 05-01-2008, 10:03 AM   #2
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Default Re: New AFL System.. Can it work??

Do you have stats supporting the margins of games say over the past few seasons?

I know if you did this with all Pies games last year you would have done very well.
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Old 05-01-2008, 10:09 AM   #3
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Default Re: New AFL System.. Can it work??

I have done very little research into this

Last week i tipped all the winners if you exclude the drawn game, 4/7 i believe won by UNDER 39 points.

I will admit this is just a 'hunch' type thing and drew inspiration from analysing this weeks games and anticipating some very close contests. I believe if you can tip 5-6 winners this week, you will be in line to make profit.

This is the type of thing that can be extremely profitable 1 week, and a disaster the next. Lets see how im sitting after round 22
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Old 05-01-2008, 10:39 AM   #4
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Default Re: New AFL System.. Can it work??

Good luck. You and I have strange patterns this year.
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Old 05-02-2008, 05:08 AM   #5
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Default Re: New AFL System.. Can it work??

OK Week 1 plays:

Carlton to beat West Coast 1-39 @ 2.20

Geelong to beat Brisbane 1-39 @ 2.15

Hawthorn to beat Collingwood 1-39 @ 2.20

St Kilda to beat Richmond 1-39 @ 2.25

Adelaide to beat Kangaroos 1-39 @ 2.10

Sydney to beat Bulldogs 1-39 @ 2.20

Fremantle to beat Melbourne 1-39 @ 2.25

Port to beat Essendon 1-39 @ 2.20


So $100 on each.

Lets see how this goes.
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Old 05-02-2008, 07:10 AM   #6
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Default Re: New AFL System.. Can it work??

i played a similar system about 3-4 years ago (with some alteration)..also Mr Flamboyant (for those who know/ remember him) had a crack at it sometime as well

long term it failed.

i had record of a previous season and counted either teams under 39.5 and these games were more than half the total games of the season , but the odds were around 1.7 each
even betting on both teams unders 39.5 came unprofitable (even with balancing the bet)

This might work , one season fail the other .. but Good luck 2u

Bottom of the line: line betting is most successful.

Last edited by bossboss : 05-11-2008 at 11:20 AM.
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Old 05-02-2008, 07:30 AM   #7
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Default Re: New AFL System.. Can it work??

Thanks bb.

I totally agree with you that spread betting is the way to go, i will continue spread betting as my main form of outlay on the AFL.

Just want to run this for a few weeks and see how it goes.

gl this weekend
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Old 05-04-2008, 11:38 AM   #8
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Default Re: New AFL System.. Can it work??

4/8 won 1-39

I made a small profit but have decided this is a woeful system and not worth the stress (aka Fremantle!!!!!!)

BG feel free to delete thread if possible.
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Old 05-04-2008, 02:01 PM   #9
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Default Re: New AFL System.. Can it work??

lol
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Old 05-04-2008, 02:53 PM   #10
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Default Re: New AFL System.. Can it work??

lol, i know
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Old 05-05-2008, 03:26 AM   #11
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Default Re: New AFL System.. Can it work??

in all honesty, I think 1-39 betting can be profitable, you just have to pick the right matches.

betting would be too easy if you could blindly apply some sort of system to every match and come out on top in the long run.
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Old 05-05-2008, 05:30 AM   #12
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Default Re: New AFL System.. Can it work??

Quote:
Originally Posted by its.like.that View Post
in all honesty, I think 1-39 betting can be profitable, you just have to pick the right matches.

betting would be too easy if you could blindly apply some sort of system to every match and come out on top in the long run.

Check mine!

Yeah not a bad week Bolleli - as Jim said, it's profitable if you can pick the right teams.
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