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View Poll Results: Do you agree with Pete?

No. I think Federer's decline is a fact and he's not winning any major in the future. 38 17.35%
I kinda agree... He's in a great moment, but the other 2 guys are too good. No more slams for Feddy 45 20.55%
I totally agree. Fed's still playing great tennis and he'll probably win another major 104 47.49%
Hello. I'm Rod Laver and my records are intact. Suck it losers. 32 14.61%
Voters: 219. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-06-2012, 12:51 PM   #196
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Default Re: 5 years since the start of the decline...how much Fed's game has changed since?

I also felt that he declined in his game from the beginning of 2007, even though the results in 2007 were still very good. For your information starting declining (= playing less well than previous year, not meaning becoming bad) around 26 years old is quite a statistical average I've observed on rankings although this "statistical average" has increased by nearly one year in recent years (probably because younger generations are not as good as older ones).

I also looked at the ATP Ricoh stats year by year and it was interesting.

My impression, also confirmed by ATP Ricoh match stats, is that he declined from that beginning of 2007 but that since Annacone's arrival (mid-2010 -it may be strange for some but in 2009, when he was number 1 again his stats were the worst since 2003), he had a boost and he stopped declining and even got better since then ...

First talking of an improvement : I think his backhand has improved, even though it had already started improving during his peak period.

Another improvement I think is overall his tactics : of course he knows better the game now, like all old players.

His movement and his forehand I definitely agree with Leng Jai : I think that some who didn't see that in his prime can't understand how great they used to be, they are still very good but he has lost the energy he had in the past.

This loss in energy is very important : Tignor says that Fed is quite as quick as in the past but he's less "bouncy".

Reflexes and anticipation declined as well, and it's mostly visible on first serve returns which have also declined and this is visible from the ATP Ricoh stats (although it got better since Annacone's arrival).

The decline on first serve returns is important because it used to be one of his greatest strengths. He has always been "mediocre" for second serve returns (while being one of the best players for second serve points won, much much better than the Samprases ...).

The loss of reflexes is also visible on volleys : a part of his decline on volleys can be explained by not practicing enough but I've seen also a decline related to losing reflexes.
And this loss of reflexes is even more visible on one of the aspects for which he has always been a master : the half-volleys on the baseline ... for instance you can see it about his decline on passing-shots (also because he's less bouncy as Tignor says) but also very importantly during the baseline game.
His loss in reflexes and anticipation is also a problem for him to turn his backhand to play his forehand, which has always been one of his greatest strengths.

About the serve I disagree with a decline : he just uses his serve differently, esp since Annacone's arrival there's less speed, less aces but he still wins as many points on first serves. Actually he hit more aces between 2007 and 2009 than in his peak period : now he hits as many aces as in his peak but less than between 2007 and 2009, yet he wins a little bit more first service points. It's on second serve that his number of points won has a little bit decreased, but overall he wins as many service points than in the past. He had sometimes problems with his back in previous years but he also learnt better how to use his serve, as he did for his backhand.

The main change about his service games is the loss in consistency ... and that's also one of the aspects which explains what's said about Fed's mental : Fed's points won on serve have not declined but his games won have declined ... and it's not even explained really by break points. In my opinion, it's just that now he has more "absent moments" and "absent service games" than in the past.

That's a big aspect of the mental in tennis : it's not only about big points, etc, it's also about having no "blanks" : Fed has always been more subject to "blanks" than Nadal especially, but it got worse with time : loss in consistency.

More generally about the mental aspect : in his prime Fed had an extraordinary confidence related to his invincibility, a confidence like Borg in his time or like Djokovic last year. I think it's one of the reasons why people say that he plays less "extraordinary shots" as he did sometimes to save some situations (also explained by his loss in reflexes and energy of course). On Big points he tends to take less the initiative to make the "winning shot". However, he has not declined in tie-break wins, for which he has been great since 2001, before his prime. And he's still the all-time best for that (well, Cuevas and Tomic are so far better for your information, Raonic also is just a little bit ahead if you exclude challengers, but with many less tie-breaks played ).

Despite all that it's clear that his decline has been awesomely limited for his age now, esp since Annacone's arrival, and if Nadal, Djokovic and Murray had not come, he would still have won a lot since his decline

As for the "trend for the future", well how long will Fed and Annacone manage to keep the level he has now ? don't know, it will clearly depend a lot on motivation, this year he clearly has some motivation, and it would also help if he won a slam or the Olympics, but anyway the decline will inevitably be seen again : I think the biggest trend for Fed will be more about choosing more his schedule, his goal will be less about the rankings and more about the slams or tournaments he feels like playing like this year Rotterdam or 2 years ago Stockholm or Davis cup.
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Old 03-06-2012, 01:12 PM   #197
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Default Re: 5 years since the start of the decline...how much Fed's game has changed since?

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Originally Posted by BroTree123 View Post
Hilarious shit here. Even though he lost to Canas there in IW 2007, I felt he played 100x better than when he beat Murray last week in Dubai final.
There's a lot of debate about the word "decline" on the tennis web,

but in my conception, decline = decrease of level, when a curve goes down, in the beginning of the curve the level is higher than in the end
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Old 03-06-2012, 01:15 PM   #198
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Default Re: 5 years since the start of the decline...how much Fed's game has changed since?

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Originally Posted by abraxas21 View Post
in AO 2010 he played amazingly well, almost like in his best years.
I've often read that : I disagree, it was not peak Fed, and even more I think that he played as well in RG and US Open 2011, or in AO 2009, than in AO 2010 but he had a better draw that year.
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Old 03-06-2012, 01:21 PM   #199
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Default Re: 5 years since the start of the decline...how much Fed's game has changed since?

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Originally Posted by leng jai View Post
This comes down to his decline in movement. These days he'll get there late and be forced to hit a forehand slice or an out of position topspin shot. Earlier in his prime he would be able to get there in time to in most cases hit at least a neutral topspin forehand.
Decline in movement is actually the major reason why all of his shots have declined I think. Most notably imho at his ROS, which is pretty awful nowadays. All those nettings, a lot due to him being a tad slower than he used to be. The match against Tsonga in Wimbledon was a perfect illustration of this.
Apart from this, his reaction time has diminished - resulting in less 'explosiveness'. All rather natural for a player his age.

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Originally Posted by duong View Post
There's a lot of debate about the word "decline" on the tennis web,

but in my conception, decline = decrease of level, when a curve goes down, in the beginning of the curve the level is higher than in the end
"Decline" is of course a gradual process, it's not like a former (and in Roger's case: a still) top player suddenly becomes 'awful' in a couple of weeks' time. Fortunately Rog's decline is a very slow one.
I would rather express Roger's 2007-2009 years as being 'no longer in his peak'. In terms of quality of tennis, not of results.
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Old 03-06-2012, 01:34 PM   #200
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Default Re: 5 years since the start of the decline...how much Fed's game has changed since?

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Originally Posted by duong View Post
My impression, also confirmed by ATP Ricoh match stats, is that he declined from that beginning of 2007 but that since Annacone's arrival (mid-2010 -it may be strange for some but in 2009, when he was number 1 again his stats were the worst since 2003), he had a boost and he stopped declining and even got better since then ...
for instance :

% of games won : 61% in 2004, 60% in 2005, 61% in 2006, 59% in 2007, 58% in 2008, 57.5% in 2009, 58% in 2010, 59% in 2011

% of points won : 56% in 2004, 56% in 2005, 56% in 2006, 55.5% in 2007, 55% in 2008, 54.5% in 2009, 55% in 2010, 55.5% in 2011

You see the curve is like that :

2004-->2006 stable
2007-->2009 decline
2010-2011 improvement

2011 being approximately like 2007 as far as the level of the game is concerned

These are only general stats but they look quite like my impression about Fed's level. And I could see a boost mid-2010 from the moment Annacone arrived.

I don't mean that he's as energetic now than in 2007 of course but even though he's less energetic now, he may be not much less energetic than in 2008-2009, and he has improved his tactics and motivation and backhand.
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Old 03-06-2012, 01:56 PM   #201
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Default Re: The Federer Decline Thread (What happened and when it started etc)

Federer's decline is quite fast between beginning of 2007 to end of 2008 but then he recovers a little and avoids to fall much further the years thereafter:

http://www.tennis28.com/charts/Sampr...ing_points.GIF

Federer still is on almost the level of Sampras 96-97, he just hasnt fallen at all since end of 2008.
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Old 03-06-2012, 02:02 PM   #202
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Default Re: The Federer Decline Thread (What happened and when it started etc)

he is still doing fine, sure nothing lasts forever
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Old 03-06-2012, 02:06 PM   #203
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Default Re: The Federer Decline Thread (What happened and when it started etc)

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Originally Posted by sexybeast View Post
Federer's decline is quite fast between beginning of 2007 to end of 2008 but then he recovers a little and avoids to fall much further the years thereafter:

http://www.tennis28.com/charts/Sampr...ing_points.GIF

Federer still is on almost the level of Sampras 96-97, he just hasnt fallen at all since end of 2008.
The ranking points are different from the % of games and points won : they take a lot more into account the "big matches" against big players ... but then they also depend much more on the level of the opponents, because if the global level of players stays quite stable in short term, the level of top-opponents can change, for instance there's a clear "Djokovic effect" since the beginning of 2011, and there was an effect "Nadal absent-Djoko's serve absent" from RG 2009.

That's why I like those % of points-games won to assess the global level of the player (the better one being imo the % of games won because it was interesting for me to see that it was quite different and more significant than the % of points won ... and the breakpoints don't say all the difference at all, it depends how many of your games are easy or tight) ... and I also like them because they fit my impression about his level of play
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Old 03-06-2012, 02:10 PM   #204
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Default Re: My career is not in decline, says Federer

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Originally Posted by WhataQT View Post
My career is not in decline, says Federer

By Larry Fine

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - World number one Roger Federer dismissed suggestions his career was in decline and said he would use recent defeats as motivation after recovering from a virus.

The Swiss player lost in the first round in Dubai last week by Briton Andy Murray, his first match since defeat by eventual champion Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semi-finals in January.

"In Switzerland there is a little too much speculation my career is over," the 26-year-old Federer told a news conference before Monday's 6-3 6-7 7-6 victory over former world number one Pete Sampras in an exhibition match at Madison Square Garden.

"People just need to know I'm healthy and happy and not miserable and down and out."

Federer pulled out victory in the good-natured contest by 8-6 in the final set tie-breaker before a crowd of around 19,000 at the Garden, including world number one golfer Tiger Woods, the Swiss champion's friend.

Federer, the 12-times grand slam singles champion, competes at the Pacific Life Open at Indian Wells, California later this week. He was told he was suffering from glandular fever after the Australian Open.

"Honestly, losses like this motivate me more than anything," said Federer. "Trying to come back, trying to prove I'm still the one to beat.

"I just want to show I can do it over and over again."

The back-to-back defeats dented Federer's aura of invincibility and fed the confidence of those younger rivals who have seen him reign as number one for a record 215 consecutive weeks.

LOVE COMPETING


Within two grand slam titles of Sampras's record haul of 14, Federer said his affection for tennis was greater than ever.

"I love competing on center courts all over the world. So many people are happy when I get there. It touches me. I love to practice more and more now," he said.

"What I enjoy most are the matches, the pressure, the fans, center court. I hope that's going to stay with me as long as possible."

Federer said he was looking forward to competing at the Beijing Olympics in August and future Games.

"The (London) Olympic Games in 2012 is something I'm looking forward to, and go from there. See how I feel with my fitness, my motivation."

Federer may have made his worst start to a season in eight years but Sampras was confident the Swiss would soon be winning again.

"In a lot of ways Roger has created this sort of monster of being unbeatable," said the 36-year-old American.

"If you lose a match here, lose a match there, people have the assumption he has lost his edge, lost his dominance. I don't look at it like that at all.
"He'll play Indian Wells and he'll play Miami (in two weeks) and do fine at those events. When it comes down to it at the big, big events, I think he'll be the guy standing with the trophy."
(Editing by Ed Osmond)

http://sport.guardian.co.uk/breaking...373657,00.html

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Originally Posted by TMJordan View Post
Shut up FedMug, you're done.

pretty much sums up the story of the last 5 years.....
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Old 03-06-2012, 04:02 PM   #205
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Default Re: The Federer Decline Thread (What happened and when it started etc)

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Originally Posted by MTwEeZi View Post
Federer will fall.
Nadal will Fall
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Old 03-06-2012, 04:08 PM   #206
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Default Re: The Federer Decline Thread (What happened and when it started etc)

His backhand has also declined in my opinion. Passing shots are shit compared to what they were (although there's been a mini-revival in recent weeks) & he used to hit baseline winners with it surprisingly often compared to now, although that may be something to do with slower surfaces. His slice also had more bite. He improved his drive backhand a bit against Nadal & maybe on clay but it's no longer the weapon it was on faster courts.
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Old 03-06-2012, 04:32 PM   #207
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Default Re: The Federer Decline Thread (What happened and when it started etc)

Federer's footspeed at getting around the ball to hit a forehand has decreased dramatically since 2006, same with his incredible speed to cover with his forehand side if his opponents dared attack that side! He used to be parked at his backhand side and force his opponents to hit perfect crosscourts to his backhand or else he would run around quickly with his forehand. Nowadays there is not this feeling that you cant really hit through Federer and the space the deuce court which Federer leaves open is always attackable. Watch here why Federer was such a great player on slow hardcourt in 2005-2006, here against Agassi in Miami:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L1zrOb6tCc

Federer is never late to any ball no matter how hard Agassi hits, he can live on defense alone which is not the case nowadays, his defense looks unbreakable.

Here you have Federer forehands and passing shots he simply cant produce anymore because he doesnt have light feet like when he was young:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBYFnwUJP_8
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Old 03-06-2012, 06:18 PM   #208
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Default Re: The Federer Decline Thread (What happened and when it started etc)

gather all the fed pigeons back to bow down to federer in the usual dull federer matches. it'll shut up the decline bullcrap talk.
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Old 03-06-2012, 08:21 PM   #209
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Default Re: The Federer Decline Thread (What happened and when it started etc)

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Originally Posted by MTwEeZi View Post
Federer will fall.
Why is that thread locked
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Old 03-06-2012, 10:07 PM   #210
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Default Re: 5 years since the start of the decline...how much Fed's game has changed since?

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Originally Posted by duong View Post
for instance :

% of games won : 61% in 2004, 60% in 2005, 61% in 2006, 59% in 2007, 58% in 2008, 57.5% in 2009, 58% in 2010, 59% in 2011

% of points won : 56% in 2004, 56% in 2005, 56% in 2006, 55.5% in 2007, 55% in 2008, 54.5% in 2009, 55% in 2010, 55.5% in 2011

You see the curve is like that :

2004-->2006 stable
2007-->2009 decline
2010-2011 improvement

2011 being approximately like 2007 as far as the level of the game is concerned

These are only general stats but they look quite like my impression about Fed's level. And I could see a boost mid-2010 from the moment Annacone arrived.

I don't mean that he's as energetic now than in 2007 of course but even though he's less energetic now, he may be not much less energetic than in 2008-2009, and he has improved his tactics and motivation and backhand.
However, something which is not visible on these overall stats is his loss of stamina comparing to 2007-2008 : in 2007-2008 he could play great and exhausting 5-setter matches against Nadal, lately he has several run out of gas in long matches.
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