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Old 10-26-2008, 12:05 AM   #346
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Yea, these options were before today's results.
Actually I did incorporate the Paris draw in it, and the stuff you mentioned, but ofcourse I might have missed some options cancelling each other out there.


But for instance the
S-S: (399): not 3 of:
Roddick: SF Paris
Ferrer: RU Paris
Simon: W-S, R-R, S-S
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-W, R-W

Was possible (havent seen todays results yet:
A Wawrinka def Ferrer final, with Roddick losing in the Semis would complete 3 items. I will update it with today's results, that might clear it up a bit
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Old 10-26-2008, 12:25 AM   #347
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Well yeah, because Ferrer and Blake can't both reach the quarters, and neither can Nalbandian and Del Potro, same for Roddick/Simon so your chart still makes sense but people need to keep that in mind that like, if Blake wins, it means by default that Ferrer cannot be RU, etc. that's all That list is still extremely helpful
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Old 10-26-2008, 12:45 AM   #348
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Voo de Mar View Post
Bad draw for Pics in Paris. I doubt in current form he is able to beat Kohlschreiber or Youzhny.
Yes, that's not easy (especially Kohlschreiber). On the other hand, if Ferrer does manage to win that match it might be enough since Simon, who must be near the end of his energy reserves, faces Andreev or Mathieu, which is also a pretty tough draw.
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Old 10-26-2008, 12:58 AM   #349
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

At quick glance, today simplifies to:

Andreev
Win: (and not 1 of)
Fer 3R, Bla SF, Waw SF, Nal RU

Soderling (Lose Lyon Final)
Win: (and not 1 of)
Sim 3R, Fer 3R, Waw SF, Nal RU

Soderling (Win Lyon Final)
Win: (and not 2 of)
Del 3R, Sim QF, Fer QF, Waw RU, Nal W+RU

Monfils
Win: (and not 2 of)
Del 3R, Sim QF, Fer SF, Bla RU

Verdasco
Win: (and not 2 of)
Del 3R, Sim SF, Fer SF, Bla RU

Nalbandian (Lose Basel Final)
Win: (and not 3 of)
Rod 3R, Sim SF, Fer SF, Bla RU
RU: (and not 1 of)
Sim 3R, Fer 3R, Bla SF, Waw SF, Tso Win, Sod W+W

Nalbandian (Win Basel Final)
Win: Secured
RU: (and not 2 of)
Del 3R, Sim QF, Fer QF, Bla Win, Tso Win

Tsonga
Win: Secured
RU: (and not 2 of)
Del 3R, Sim QF, Fer QF, Waw Win, Nal Win, Ver Win, Mon Win

Wawrinka
Win: Secured
RU: (and not 3 of)
Rod 3R, Del QF, Sim SF, Fer SF, Bla Win, Tso Win
SF: (and not 1 of)
Sim 3R, Fer 3R, Bla SF, Tso RU, Nal W+RU/RU+W, Ver Win, Sod W+W

Blake
Win: Secured
RU: (and not 3 of)
Rod 3R, Del SF, Sim SF, Waw Win, Nal W+W
SF: (and not 2 of)
Del 3R, Sim 3R, Waw RU, Tso RU, Nal W+RU/RU+W, Ver Win, Mon Win

Ferrer
Win: Secured
RU: Secured
SF: (and not 3 of)
Rod 3R, Del SF, Sim SF, Waw Win, Tso Win, Nal W+W
QF: (and not 2 of)
Del 3R, Sim QF, Waw RU, Tso Win, Nal Win, Ver Win, Mon Win
3R: (and not 1 of)
Sim 3R, Bla SF, Waw RU, Tso RU, Nal W+RU/RU+W, Ver Win, Mon Win, Sod W+W

Simon
Win: Secured
RU: Secured
SF: (and not 3 of)
Del SF, Fer RU, Bla Win, Waw Win, Nal W+W
QF: (and not 2 of)
Del 3R, Fer SF, Bla RU, Waw RU, Tso Win, Nal Win, Ver Win
3R: (and not 2 of)
Del 3R, Fer QF, Bla RU, Waw RU, Tso RU, Nal W+RU/RU+W, Ver Win, Mon Win, Sod W+W
1R: (and not 1 of)
Fer 3R, Bla SF, Waw SF, Tso RU, Nal RU, Ver Win, Mon Win, Sod Win
Not Playing Paris: (and not 1 of)
Fer 3R, Bla SF, Waw SF, Tso RU, Nal RU, Ver Win, Mon Win, Sod Win, And Win

Del Potro
Win: Secured
RU: Secured
SF: (and not 3 of)
Rod SF, Sim SF, Fer SF, Bla Win, Waw Win
QF: (and not 3 of)
Rod 3R, Sim SF, Fer SF, Bla RU, Waw Win, Tso Win
3R: (and not 3 of)
Rod 1R, Sim SF, Fer SF, Bla RU, Waw RU, Tso Win, Nal Win
1R: (and not 2 of)
Sim 3R, Fer QF, Bla RU, Waw RU, Tso RU, Nal W+RU/RU+W, Ver Win, Mon Win, Sod W+W
Not Playing Paris: (and not 2 of)
Sim 3R, Fer QF, Bla SF, Waw RU, Tso RU, Nal W+RU/RU+W, Ver Win, Mon Win, Sod W+W

Roddick
Win: Secured
RU: Secured
SF: Secured
QF: (and not 3 of)
Del SF, Fer RU, Bla Win, Waw Win
3R: (and not 3 of)
Del SF, Sim SF, Fer RU, Bla Win, Waw Win, Tso Win, Nal W+W
1R: (and not 3 of)
Del QF, Sim SF, Fer SF, Bla RU, Waw RU, Tso Win, Nal Win
Not Playing Paris: (and not 3 of)
Del QF, Sim SF, Fer SF, Bla RU, Waw RU, Tso Win, Nal Win

(Have to check if the Roddick QF options are still possible now, but will do that tomorrow)
edit: yes it can: Wawrinka def Ferrer final, with Del Potro losing in semis to Wawrinka, and Roddick can lose in QF just fine )
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Last edited by Elikian : 10-26-2008 at 12:51 PM. Reason: small flaw at Soderling
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:01 AM   #350
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

I don't think so, because only one of Blake of Ferrer can even make it to the quarterfinals, three of those things are not possible so a QF should secure it for Roddick (but I don't think he'll make it so doesn't matter )

thanks for updating
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:05 AM   #351
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Yes it can I think: Wawrinka def Ferrer final, with Del Potro losing in semis to Wawrinka, and Roddick can lose in QF just fine.
Ofc Blake isnt there as he loses to Ferrer, but only 3 conditions have to be satisfied

I agree wawrinka - ferrer is not likely, but it's possible
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:16 AM   #352
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

oh right, gotcha.... thanks again
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:23 AM   #353
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

some nice work there elikian. too bad it wont be that exciting.

i dont think any roddick fan should be worried.. there no way that ferrer going to make a semi at this tournament.
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:30 AM   #354
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Thank you both

I know, these stats make it seem to be a tight race, seeing that there is still 3 spots left for grabs in the final week, and I think even 7 people who have it in their own control just by winning the event.
But in reality most of these players have to win the event to have a shot, and there is still the likes of Murray, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic floating in those draws

I agree, Roddick fans neednt worry, but if Del Potro loses early (still injured?) then his and Simon's spots could get interesting.
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Old 10-26-2008, 06:31 PM   #355
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Thanks for your enormous contribution Elikian...must have taken you some time to work all that out, impressive!

Okay, Federer and Murray added another title to their respective collections, and Soderling finally ended his title drought, winning in Lyon, which consolidates his place inside the top 20, at #17. A fine season for Robin, and, if he can stay injury-free, there is a good chance he can appear inside the top 15, next year. Losing finalist, Benneteau, moves up to #46, while Basel finalist, Nalbandian, keeps his very slim hopes of winning a place at the TMC, alive.
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Old 10-26-2008, 06:42 PM   #356
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

They just said on French TV ("Stade 2") that Roddick isn't going to Shanghai, is that true?!
The French presenter who said that has absolutely no clue, but the strange thing is that Simon was on the TV show and didn't look surprised when they announced that. But maybe he got it wrong.
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Old 10-26-2008, 07:10 PM   #357
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Truc View Post
They just said on French TV ("Stade 2") that Roddick isn't going to Shanghai, is that true?!
The French presenter who said that has absolutely no clue, but the strange thing is that Simon was on the TV show and didn't look surprised when they announced that. But maybe he got it wrong.
Can't imagine why he wouldn't go, he mentioned it in Madrid I think, when he said that qualifying for him isn't his biggest goal for these last tourneys but that of course it's something he pays attention to and whatnot.... but nothing he does/doesn't do surprises me anymore. He's always played when healthy in the past, can't imagine why that'd change now (except that his schedule has been especially this year ). I suppose, he's coachless and in horrible form right now and it might not be the worst idea to just call it a season after Paris and take a little time to rest and regroup and stuff, but that's generally not his style. There was a lot of speculation he wouldn't show up last year b/c of the DC final, and he did and said he was never planning to stay home, so who knows.
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Old 10-26-2008, 07:20 PM   #358
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Thanks, it sounds really strange to me too. They didn't elaborate at all, it was at the end of the TV show, the (completely clueless) journalist said to Simon good luck and it's looking for you for Shanghai since I've heard from your coach Tulasne that Roddick isn't going there - and Simon was just smiling, but maybe he wasn't really realizing and he had no time to answer anyway, it was during the credits already.
They regularly give wrong news on that show, they're not reliable at all for tennis news, forget it.
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Old 10-26-2008, 07:24 PM   #359
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

TMS Paris - the last dash to Shanghai!!!


This week: TMS Paris (100pts)


Profiling the players with a mathematical shot at qualifyingfor a Shanghai place (bar = 99pts from #8):

(+31) Andy Roddick (USA): PARIS - 99.9% assured of his place, whatever he does...would need 3 contenders behind him to advance to the SF stage, and most likely 1 of them appear in the final. Not likely...
(+16) Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG): PARIS - in a reasonable position...Ferrer & co. must reach at least the QF to overtake him, should he lose in R2; losing in R3/QF would force the bar up to a SF.
(+3) Gilles Simon (FRA): PARIS - mustn't fall earlier than Ferrer, AND hope that anyone behind him doesn't have a great week (SF or beyond, depending on the situation).
....................

IN CONTENTION:


(-3) David Ferrer (ESP): PARIS - What happened Pics? Must out-perform Simon by 1 round / Del Potro by 2 rounds (prior to QF stage), AND hope that anyone behind him doesn't go on the rampage. If he were to fall in R3, Blake would need a SF; if Ferrer goes further, Blake & co. would need final/title win (depending on the player's points total).

....................

NEEDING A MIRACLE:


(-31) James Blake (USA): PARIS - must reach the SF...if Simon reaches R3/Ferrer reaches QF, he must reach the final, and if either reaches the SF, he must win the title, hoping that Simon isn't in the final.
(-40) Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI): PARIS - must reach the SF...if Simon or Ferrer reach R3, he must reach the final, and if either reaches SF, he must win the title, hoping that neither is in the final.
(-51) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA): PARIS - must reach the final...if Simon or Ferrer reach QF, he must win the title.
(-57) Fernando Gonzalez (CHI): OUT
(-66) David Nalbandian (ARG): PARIS - must reach the final...if Simon or Ferrer reach R3, he must win the title.
(-73) Fernando Verdasco (ESP): PARIS - must win Paris, and hope that Simon and Ferrer don't make SF, and anyone else behind Simon and Ferrer doesn't make the final/win the title (depending on the player's points total).
(-77) Gael Monfils (FRA): PARIS - must win Paris, and hope that Simon doesn't make QF, Ferrer doesn't make SF, and anyone else behind Simon and Ferrer doesn't make the final/win the title (depending on the player's points total).
(-83) Robin Soderling (SWE): PARIS - must win Paris, and hope that Simon and Ferrer don't make QF, and anyone else behind Simon and Ferrer doesn't make the final/win the title (depending on the player's points total).
(-87) Nicolas Almagro (ESP): OUT
(-99) Igor Andreev (RUS): PARIS - must win Paris, but, more importantly, must pray that Simon and Ferrer lose their openers, and anyone else behind Simon and Ferrer doesn't make SF/final/win the title (depending on the player's points total).

Last edited by El Burro : 10-26-2008 at 07:31 PM.
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Old 10-26-2008, 07:30 PM   #360
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

So, as you can see, this year's mad dash to Shanghai is pretty much a polar opposite to last year's. Exactly a year ago, just 14pts (and therefore 1 match outcome!) separated Haas, at #8, from Ljubicic, at #15. This year, only Ferrer is close enough to really worry Simon (and maybe Del Potro...Roddick probably won't lose any sleep).
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