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Old 10-12-2008, 12:27 AM   #286
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
True, it has given other players (especially those 3 you mention) a slightly better mathematical chance of qualifying, but, realistically, they are still a long way off when you consider that JMDP is likely to raise the bar to at least 330pts (and, working with Ferrer and Roddick, this could go beyond 350pts imo).
Yes, they all made the finals of their respective tournaments and now they need to win the titles to have a fighting chance.

As for ferrer and del potro. ferrer could be facing lopez, who knock him out in the first round last year at madrid. del potro could have another master cup hopeful take him out in nalbandian or berdych.

So both ferrer and del potro haven't guarantee themselves in qualifying for the master cup yet.

Anyways, i think their could be lot of surprised this week, noone expected kiefer, wawrinka or mardy fish to make a master final this year. So their still possibility another player that still has mathematically chance to qualify for the master cup could making the final in madrid.

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Old 10-12-2008, 05:56 PM   #287
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

I doubt too many people would have predicted some of the results this week... Big congrats to Petzschner and Kunitsyn, who both came out of nowhere to land their titles. Nalbandian was the other winner (Stockholm), moving 8 places up to #18, and now within 77pts of the #8 placed Del Potro. It is still a huge points gap, but how many dare to underestimate El Rey, given what he achieved at this stage, last year? Monfils now resides 4pts ahead of him, at #17 (+7 places, this week), having finished runner-up in Vienna...in his current good form, he would present a threat to other Shanghai hopefuls, but I guess you have to wonder if his knee(s) will carry him over the next 3 weeks. Another week, another injury for Gael. Finally, there are Safin (runner-up in Moscow) and Soderling (runner-up in Stockholm)...both closed in on the top 20, but neither are likely to worry their higher-ranked hopefuls too much, over the next 3 weeks (neither are likely to impact much in the TMS events).

Finally, I'm not sure if I'm misinterpreting the ATP...but Nadal receiving the #1 trophy in Madrid, today? If this is to congratulate him on securing the #1 ranking for 2008, I believe that they have jumped the gun? He is 344pts ahead of Federer, with 400 still to play for.
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Old 10-12-2008, 06:34 PM   #288
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
I doubt too many people would have predicted some of the results this week... Big congrats to Petzschner and Kunitsyn, who both came out of nowhere to land their titles. Nalbandian was the other winner (Stockholm), moving 8 places up to #18, and now within 77pts of the #8 placed Del Potro. It is still a huge points gap, but how many dare to underestimate El Rey, given what he achieved at this stage, last year? Monfils now resides 4pts ahead of him, at #17 (+7 places, this week), having finished runner-up in Vienna...in his current good form, he would present a threat to other Shanghai hopefuls, but I guess you have to wonder if his knee(s) will carry him over the next 3 weeks. Another week, another injury for Gael. Finally, there are Safin (runner-up in Moscow) and Soderling (runner-up in Stockholm)...both closed in on the top 20, but neither are likely to worry their higher-ranked hopefuls too much, over the next 3 weeks (neither are likely to impact much in the TMS events).

Finally, I'm not sure if I'm misinterpreting the ATP...but Nadal receiving the #1 trophy in Madrid, today? If this is to congratulate him on securing the #1 ranking for 2008, I believe that they have jumped the gun? He is 344pts ahead of Federer, with 400 still to play for.
When you get to number 1 for the first time you get a trophy no matter when it is. It's a trophy to show that you have at some point been world number one. The End of year trophy will come at some other point.
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Old 10-13-2008, 10:17 AM   #289
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by Black Adam View Post
When you get to number 1 for the first time you get a trophy no matter when it is. It's a trophy to show that you have at some point been world number one. The End of year trophy will come at some other point.
Thanks for clarifying.
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Old 10-13-2008, 10:23 AM   #290
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Okay, just before we turn our focuses to Madrid...I've had to make two amendments to the Race top 40 as the ATP decided to penalise Fish and Querrey (maybe others outside the top 40, too) for withdrawing from Vienna and Stockholm, respectively. Each have a "0 pointer" appearing amongst their best optionals results...for Fish, this costs him 5pts (Memphis R2 falls off), and pushes his "best 5th" result up to 8pts, while Querrey drops 3pts (Nottingham R2), but his "best 5th" remains at 3pts. Both guys lose a place in the Race rankings.

For this week, just the one player was unable to make it to Shanghai...Ancic will add a 4th "0 pointer" to his 2008 ranking.
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:08 AM   #291
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

13th - 19th October 2008.

(3/5 weeks to the end of the regular season).


This week: TMS Madrid (100pts).


Profiling the players with at least an outside shot of a Shanghai place (bar = 100pts from #8):

(+108) Nikolay Davydenko (RUS): MADRID - should make R3 (+15 pts), which would ensure that is on the cusp of qualifying for the TMC. Any further wins after that would be a bonus, considering the strength of his section of the draw.
(+45) Andy Roddick (USA): MADRID - should really be targeting QF (+25pts), which would most likely keep him comfortably in the top 8.
(+28) David Ferrer (ESP): MADRID - QF (+25pts) not impossible, but plenty of danger lurks beforehand (Lopez R2, Kohlschreiber/Wawrinka R3), with an early exit potentially very damaging for him.
(+3) Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG): MADRID - a brutal draw (Nalbandian/Berdych R3, Tsonga/Federer QF), but he looks set for solid points (min. R3, +15pts).
....................
(-3) James Blake (USA): MADRID - a difficult draw (Simon, Andreev, Davydenko), but QF (+25pts) is attainable, which would keep him well in the hunt.
(-26) Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI): MADRID - needs to score solid points here, but Kohlschreiber(/Moya), in R2, could have other ideas.
(-29) Fernando Gonzalez (CHI): MADRID - Gonza Truba will find it very hard not to lose ground on the top 8 this week. R3 (+15pts) is likely to be his last stop.
(-51) Gilles Simon (FRA): MADRID - the Shanghai dream should keep slipping away, with Simon facing difficult match-ups from the off.
(-55) Fernando Verdasco (ESP): MADRID - has a reasonable shot at R3 (+15pts), but that isn't good enough at this stage.
(-57) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA): MADRID - R3 (+15pts) is his realistic limit, although with Federer bound to be a little rusty, you never quite know...
(-59) Nicolas Almagro (ESP): MADRID - "...if it isn't clay, talk to my hand 'cos my face ain't bothered." Well, he might as well have said that.
(-73) Igor Andreev (RUS): MADRID - a very difficult section of the draw, but he is capable of winning any of these matches. Your guess is as good as mine as to whether he falls in R1 (+1pt), or goes as far as QF (+25pts).
(-73) Gael Monfils (FRA): MADRID - at full fitness, Gael could do damage in his section of the draw, but anyone seeing his weekend Vienna matches would wonder if he will do little more than honour his commitment to the tournament.
(-77pts) David Nalbandian (ARG): MADRID - Fat Dave is back to his best, which is just as well when you see the draw he has. Could fall in any round (Berdych could be a nasty opener), but, as we saw last year, could do the unthinkable.
(-87) Tommy Robredo (ESP): MADRID - might struggle to beat Seppi, but little doubt that he would bend over for Roddick, in R2.
(-91) Mardy Fish (USA): MADRID - might shock Gasquet, but is unlikely to go further.
(-91) Tomas Berdych (CZE): MADRID - should beat Schuettler in R1, but from then on any win will be a bonus.
(-95) Richard Gasquet (FRA): MADRID - I think most have given up trying to anticipate Gasquet performances, but in his better form he could pose a serious threat to virtually anyone in the draw, including Nadal (his potential R3 opponent). Still, it is more than likely he falls before the QF.
(-96) Robin Soderling (SWE): MADRID - where there's an important event, you can practically guarantee that Soderling will collapse like a cheap tent in the early rounds. Madrid looks to be no exception (tricky Karlovic R2, and Djokovic R3), but Soderling is at his most dangerous indoors, so a huge run cannot be discounted.
(-97) Dmitry Tursunov (RUS): MADRID - R2 is likely to be his limit (Djokovic), but, on his day, Dima can surprise.
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Old 10-16-2008, 06:59 AM   #292
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Should be a great day for tennis in terms of the race today. Very interesting match ups and some must win matches if they want to stay in the hunt for Shanghai.

I'm hoping for a few surprises to shake up the race a bit more.
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Old 10-16-2008, 10:08 AM   #293
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Burro, has Lopez not leap-frogged Moya for 40th place with his win yesterday? Not that 40th place matters at this stage of the game!
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Old 10-16-2008, 03:11 PM   #294
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by decrepitude View Post
Burro, has Lopez not leap-frogged Moya for 40th place with his win yesterday? Not that 40th place matters at this stage of the game!
Indeed, he did move up to #40, and, having now made it to the QF, he moves up 6 further places to #34. Thanks for your input.

At this stage of the day, three other guys have been pencilled into QF slots...Murray, Del Potro and Simon. For Murray, he is simply extending an ever widening gap between himself and Davydenko, at #5. Del Potro has raised the bar for the "Shanghai 8," again, to 337pts (from 312pts at the start of the week), and is now just 1pt behind Ferrer, at #7. Simon has now moved ahead of Gonzalez, into #11, but for all his incredibly hard efforts this week, he has made no dent whatsoever in the points deficit to the "Shanghai 8."
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Old 10-16-2008, 06:18 PM   #295
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Kolya is already in
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Old 10-18-2008, 08:13 AM   #296
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Huge credit to Simon for trying to make the challenge to the current "Shanghai 8" a little more interesting...4 successive wins from a set down, and breaking Karlovic 3 times from behind! He now moves up to #10, a handful of points ahead of Wawrinka, and a stone's throw from Blake, at #9. More importantly, he isn't so far away from the top 8, with the gap down to 31pts.

In other news, Nadal will clinch the year-end #1 ranking should he beat Simon today. His lead over Federer is still 344pts, and, currently, there are a further 355 points to play for. Assuming that both men make the final, the gap will obviously be the same, but the number of points left to play will fall to 330pts.
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Old 10-18-2008, 01:51 PM   #297
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
In other news, Nadal will clinch the year-end #1 ranking should he beat Simon today. His lead over Federer is still 344pts, and, currently, there are a further 355 points to play for. Assuming that both men make the final, the gap will obviously be the same, but the number of points left to play will fall to 330pts.
...and, as it turns out, he doesn't even need to do that.

Muzza defeated Federer in the Madrid SF, meaning that the gap between Rafa and Fed will be at least 344pts after today (369pts if, and probably when, Nadal beats Simon), with Federer only able to compete for a maximum of 300pts (Basel, Paris and TMC) over the remainder of the season. So, Rafa is officially the 2008 year-end #1.

It's a pity that Muzza is so far off Nole, because really those two guys should be swapping positions based on form and results over the last 4 months or so. As long as he doesn't get injured, it looks like Muzza should be a real threat for a top 3 ranking in 2009.
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Old 10-18-2008, 05:57 PM   #298
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

OMGGGGGGGGGGGGG Simon!!!

Marathon win over Nadal puts him into his first Masters final!!! Now just 6pts off the "Shanghai 8"!!! How he plans to take part in Lyon, next week, is beyond me...he MUST honour his commitment if he isn't to incur a "0 points" penalty (I think?), which would be very damaging for him (-10pts). It all gets very interesting now, as Ferrer, just 7pts ahead, isn't down to play next week...
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Old 10-18-2008, 06:15 PM   #299
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Simon After amazing week in Madrid he deserves to play in Shanghai especially that he is the only player (beside Murray) who has beaten Top 3 players this year.
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Old 10-18-2008, 06:30 PM   #300
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

The race to Shanghai is red hot!
Selfishly I'd like for JMDP not to qualify to be fresh for the DC final. But I think JMDP is almost in, he will get more points than Ferrer. It will be JMDP 7 Ferrer 8 or Simon 7 JMDP 8 IMO, depending on whether Simon wins the Madrid final. I don't see Simon doing well next week or in Paris, all his matches are tight, he can't keep winning them all. So his chances hang on the final tomorrow.
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