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Old 07-10-2008, 09:36 PM   #166
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by anon57 View Post
Ok, I was just wondering, I hadn't actually tried checking whether it was mathematically possible for Fed to end outside the top 8
I think you'd need a more advanced computer spreadsheet to be able to do that, otherwise it would take forever.

Given that the ATP has publicly stated that the current top 3 have qualified for Shanghai, I would imagine that it is now mathematically impossible that they could each be bumped out of the top 8...
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Old 07-10-2008, 09:37 PM   #167
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

All standings up-to-date now, including individual country battles.

Decided to do away with the grey font (which previously reflected a player who had lost during an event)...saves me a couple of extra minutes each time I update the standings.
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Old 07-11-2008, 09:01 AM   #168
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by Gilles View Post
I think you'd need a more advanced computer spreadsheet to be able to do that, otherwise it would take forever.

Given that the ATP has publicly stated that the current top 3 have qualified for Shanghai, I would imagine that it is now mathematically impossible that they could each be bumped out of the top 8...
Hard formula, would like to see what the ATP bods came up with.
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Old 07-11-2008, 11:30 AM   #169
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Djokovic has already qualified for TMC (Slam winner).

For Federer not to qualify for the TMC, the next 6 players have to garner enough points to push him to no. 8, i.e having at least 686 points.

Total points needed = 686*6 = 4116

So far, from Slams & Master Series:

Davydenko = 228
Tsonga = 170
Ferrer = 164
Wawrinka = 156
Blake = 140
Murray = 119

Mikhail Youzhny = 119
Roddick = 113
Almagro = 106

Total points from the 6 = 977

The maximum points the 6 players can gain from the USO & 4 MS = (100 + 70 + 45*2 + 25*2) *6 = 1860

So total points needed from ISG, IS & Olympics = 4116 - 977 - 1860 = 1279

So far (only count tournaments with at least 35 race points):

Davydenko 35 35
Tsonga 0
Ferrer 42 35 35
Wawrinka 35
Blake 0
Murray 50 40

The remaining of the year, there are
- 1 80-point winner, 1 56-point runner up, 2 36-point semifinalists
- 6 50-point winners, 6 35-point runner ups (no contender currently playing in Stuttgart)
- 2 45-point winners
- 1 40-point winner
- >11 35-point winners

to fill the 30 countable tournaments:

Maximum points can get = 1*42 + 1*50 + 1*40 + 1*80 + 1*56 + 6*50 + 2*45 + 1*40 + 2*36 + 14*35 = 1260 < 1279 needed

So there are not enough points to gain, Federer qualifies for the TMC.

Similar result when replacing Murray by Roddick (less points from Slams & Masters but has 60 points from Dubai)

Last edited by nateyang : 07-11-2008 at 02:06 PM.
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Old 07-13-2008, 03:21 AM   #170
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

^^^ wow but what did you mean by Djokovic qualifying for being a slam winner? does that directly qualify you? haven't heard of this one..
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Old 07-13-2008, 04:02 AM   #171
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by habibko View Post
^^^ wow but what did you mean by Djokovic qualifying for being a slam winner? does that directly qualify you? haven't heard of this one..
Yes... thats the rule... Slam winner is automatically qualified for TMC as long as he is in the top 20s at the year end. And by point calculation he is unlikely out of top 20s, isnt he? ... Just look up the rule at TMC, maybe in its website...
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Old 07-15-2008, 07:35 PM   #172
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

How many points did Federer have when he finished the year last year?
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Old 07-15-2008, 08:20 PM   #173
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Okay, all lists up-to-date...sorry for the delay.

So, last week, Del Potro was the biggest mover, surging 26 places into the top 50, collecting 50 points for his first title, in Stuttgart. He is definitely one to watch out for, again, this week, with a practically "free run" to the Kitzbuhel final, where you'd struggle to pit him against a player he couldn't, theoretically, beat. Landing back-to-back titles could see him move into the top 25 list...

Elsewhere, Hanescu grabbed his first ATP title, which sees him move into the #60s...Boredo triumphed in Bastad, landing him right into the tight-knit pack from #12-17...and the evergreen Santoro successfully defended his Newport title, putting him on the outskirts of the top 50.

More MM action to enjoy this week, but the men get separated from the boys over the following 2 weeks...
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Old 07-15-2008, 08:22 PM   #174
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by Ackms421 View Post
How many points did Federer have when he finished the year last year?
1436 Race points. Check out stevegtennis.com for this type of info...a great site.

Looks like he will fall at least a few hundred short of that mark, this season, although I guess the real issue is how Nadal and Djokovic have continued to raise their levels.
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:00 AM   #175
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by nateyang View Post
Djokovic has already qualified for TMC (Slam winner).

For Federer not to qualify for the TMC, the next 6 players have to garner enough points to push him to no. 8, i.e having at least 686 points.

Total points needed = 686*6 = 4116

So far, from Slams & Master Series:

Davydenko = 228
Tsonga = 170
Ferrer = 164
Wawrinka = 156
Blake = 140
Murray = 119

Mikhail Youzhny = 119

Roddick = 113
Almagro = 106

Total points from the 6 = 977

The maximum points the 6 players can gain from the USO & 4 MS = (100 + 70 + 45*2 + 25*2) *6 = 1860

So total points needed from ISG, IS & Olympics = 4116 - 977 - 1860 = 1279

So far (only count tournaments with at least 35 race points):

Davydenko 35 35
Tsonga 0
Ferrer 42 35 35
Wawrinka 35
Blake 0
Murray 50 40

The remaining of the year, there are
- 1 80-point winner, 1 56-point runner up, 2 36-point semifinalists
- 6 50-point winners, 6 35-point runner ups (no contender currently playing in Stuttgart)
- 2 45-point winners
- 1 40-point winner
- >11 35-point winners

to fill the 30 countable tournaments:

Maximum points can get = 1*42 + 1*50 + 1*40 + 1*80 + 1*56 + 6*50 + 2*45 + 1*40 + 2*36 + 14*35 = 1260 < 1279 needed

So there are not enough points to gain, Federer qualifies for the TMC.

Similar result when replacing Murray by Roddick (less points from Slams & Masters but has 60 points from Dubai)
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Old 07-19-2008, 11:48 AM   #176
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Updated the top 25 to SF stages of all tournaments this week. Will update the individual country battles later on, when I have the time.
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Old 07-20-2008, 09:47 PM   #177
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Del Potro's back-to-back title run sees him surge into the top 25, at #23. Will be interesting to see where he goes from here...definitely a solid shot at top 20 if he can remain fit...possibly a little higher. Montanes scored his first title, and moves up to #40. Verdasco finally got a grip and bagged his 2nd career title, moving him "comfortably" clear at #11 (considering that Tsonga is still out of action). Simon was solid in Indianapolis, and moves into the top 20 at #19.

A very interesting week in store, in Toronto. Djokovic will be hoping to rediscover last summer's magic if he is to remain in contention for a top 2 ranking...Federer must feel that he has to begin turning the tide on Nadal, right now...and Nadal, himself, can only be focused on surviving the first few rounds (as he will), enabling him to inch ever closer to a very likely stint as the #1 player in the official ranking system, within the next month or so.

As for the others, you'll notice that a fair gap has emerged behind the current top 10, and with a couple of those lagging behind forced out of contention, certainly for this week (e.g. Nalbandian, Tsonga), and several others being weaker on these courts / in these stronger draws (e.g. Robredo), there is a chance that the gap becomes wider still...
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Old 07-24-2008, 10:12 AM   #178
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Race updated to Toronto R3.

Last night's results have shaken the order up somewhat. Let's start with Federer's surprising demise...well, Rafa has a chance to extend his lead over the Swiss from 270 pts (Wimbledon) to a staggering 369 pts by the end of this week (should he win the title). But this may not be as important, as Djokovic can now regain the #2 position should he reach the SF, as he is expected to do. Whatever should happen to Federer and Djokovic, the world #1 tag is now VERY firmly in Rafa's hands, and now he has the best chance possible to shut both out of "realistic" contention, if he can continue to post very solid results in his remaining 5 mandatories (a solid Olympics run would also be useful).

Moving down to the scrap between #6-10, obviously Roddick can continue to keep his nose in front if he equals, and beats the performances of Wawrinka, Murray (one of those two will lose tonight) and Blake, this week. Poor old Mucho slips from a nice #7 position to #10, and won't even be around next week to try to fight back.

The other notable scrap was between #13-22 (separation of just 18 points)...Andreev and Simon have broken through the pack, and given their respective opposition, tonight, it looks like Simon will be the one to set the new "pace" into next week.
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Old 07-24-2008, 09:55 PM   #179
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Quick update for tonight...Roddick's demise and Murray's subsequent win over Wawrinka have been enough to catapult the Scot up to #6 in the Race, with Blake needing to win through to the SF to push Murray back down. Also altered Murray's "5th best" having read that he got a "0 pointer" for a second late withdrawal from an optional event (Indianapolis), this year...so, effectively, he can only have 4 a maximum of 4 optionals on his Race ranking, for this season. He may well live to regret that decision if the battle for Shanghai places goes right down to the wire...

Elsewhere, Simon won, as expected, and emerges from the bottom of a tight-knit pack (at the beginning of the week) to a "solid" position of #13 (barring any heroics from Andreev).
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Old 07-26-2008, 07:15 AM   #180
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Nadal reaches the 1,000pts milestone.
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