[stable unit]

No time today: all to win 1 unit

Oscar Hernandez 2.20 (fatigue major role)
Nico Massu 3.05 (Almagro form, headcase)
Sergio Roitman 2.66 (Calleri time bomb)
Peter Luczak 2.10 (like the power for a dog)

Gremelmayr 3.4 (big price for two closely fought battles, hard to beat someone 3 times in a short span. Just ask the Cowboys about that.

[stable unit]

To win one unit

Mario Ancic 3.55

[stable unit]

Originally Posted by stable unit

No time today: all to win 1 unit

Oscar Hernandez 2.20 (fatigue major role)
Nico Massu 3.05 (Almagro form, headcase)
Sergio Roitman 2.66 (Calleri time bomb)
Peter Luczak 2.10 (like the power for a dog)

Gremelmayr 3.4 (big price for two closely fought battles, hard to beat someone 3 times in a short span. Just ask the Cowboys about that.

Originally Posted by stable unit

To win one unit

Mario Ancic 3.55

Rounding up, 4-2 +3.09 units

[stable unit]

2 plays for me today:

Baghdatis over Youzhny @1.96
1.05 units to win 1 unit

This is a dangerous play considering Youzhny form generally over the past 12 months, nevermind this calendar year. However, Baggy has been pretty good this year; and on in indoor court quite simply he is the better player imo. Betting is all about opinions, and i rate Baggy more in this spot.

Volandri over Almagro @2.6
0.65 units to win 1 unit

It can be very tempting to jump on the Almagro train here, but countless times he has cruised through rounds all produce an error ridden display next. At these odds im happy take a seasoned clay court performer in Pipo, the BH exchanges in this match will be crucial. It is in Almagro's hands like most players versus Volandri though.

GL all

[stable unit]

Originally Posted by stable unit

Baghdatis over Youzhny @1.96
1.05 units to win 1 unit

Volandri over Almagro @2.6[/b]
0.65 units to win 1 unit

Im happy with a +0.35 units today.

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Murray over Ancic @1.62
1.75 units to win 1 unit

On the face it this seems a short price, although imo Murray is a worthy favourite and should be a little shorter. He has shown time and time again that he is able to neutralise powerful serves, id expect him to get a fair share of 1st serves back from Ancic and be superior from the back of the court once the ball is in play. He can force Ancic to hit the extra ball and create errors or bring Ancic in and pass off both sides as he did today against PHM (albeit not a superior net player). Furthermore, Ancic never appears to be fully comfortable in finals and here's hoping his 1st serve % continues to drop as we have witnessed this week. Perhaps fatigue of his first tournament back is taking its toll.

GL

[stable unit]

Originally Posted by stable unit

Murray over Ancic @1.62
1.75 units to win 1 unit

WIN

[stable unit]

I'll be quite busy early in the week. so wanted to get some round 1 matches up.

Mahut over Robredo @2.5 (Bet365 sunday night)
0.67 units to win 1 unit

I think this is going to be on a lot of people's cards, Robredo does have the game style to trouble Mahut giving that he is capable off both wings to pass Mahut and has a steady baseline game. However Robredo hasn't shown any confidence/form this year whatsoever, and coming from clay in Peru this wont be an easy task. Furthermore Tommy lost to the attacking game of Mardy Fish at the Oz Open, and has struggled against attacking players generally over the last 6 months. A price of 2.5 is generous and i think worth a play considering Mahut came through well
last week and looked in good touch.

Lopez over Fish @2.1
0.91 units to win 1 unit

Simon comes into this match 3-10 against his last 13 left handed opponents, indicating he is not all that comfortable against lefties. Lopez has a dominating serve and should be able to pick up his fair share of cheap points, whilst he should be in Simon's service games throughout. Reports suggest this isn't one of the fastest indoor surfaces, but i like that Lopez has doubles action on Monday to gim him a feel for the surface.
He played Karlovic tough last week, and i like him in this spot as underdog.

Ljubicic over Berdych @2.52 (Betfair)
0.66 units to win 1 unit

Ljubicic clearly loves this surface here in Rotterdam and even though Berdych comes in here as favourite considering how there respective careers have altered over the last 12 months, this could easily see a tie-break or two; and i would never feel comfortabe taking Berdych in a round 1 match at such short odds. Hopefully Ljubicic has found some confidence after winning a challenger last week, a bit like how ToJo did at the back end of last year and i see this one as closer.

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Young over Lee @2.4
0.71 units to win 1 unit

Young comes into this match on a 2 match skid that has seen him facing off against big servers, which on the face of things have seemed to overpower him (more so Berrer at OZ Open). Baseline exchanges will take priority here though, and in a rowdy night session i like Young's chances. As to there repective H2H, Lee was in great form in the middle of the US hardcourt swing whilst he comes in here off a 3-5 2008 record posting wins over Mirnyi, Guccione and Mayer none of which have the class of Young from the back.

Calleri over Monaco @2.5 (one ball book)
0.67 units to win 1 unit

Both Argentines have had some success here in the past, semi and a final for Calleri with Monaco actually winning the event last year. Notably though, Pico pulled out of Vina del Mar with a second degree sprain. With points to defend and this being his home country im speculating he'd want to play at all costs. 100% fit Monaco i'd expect to wear down Calleri and keeping a good length allow Calleri to beat himself. However with Calleri being the dog here, and with the injury return perhaps Monaco will leave a few extra balls short and we all know Agustin will jump on them with his powerful groundies. H2H Calleri leads 3-1 so clearly his power troubles Monaco, worth a go at this price imo.

GL all

[stable unit]

Hernandez over Almagro 2.62(one ball book)
0.61 units to win 1 unit

The price has come in from what i'd have hoped for, but i get the feeling that this is going to be a very tough match for Almagro. He must be running low on stamina/mental power now, he got through his 1st round tie after the flight from Brazil. To come back the next day though when the sun will be at its highest is a tough ask. Especially against a tough fellow countymen who will be content to soak up the pressure time and time again to work the point. If Hernandez plays well, id be very impressed if Almagro beats Hernandez comfortably today. Even a fully fit Almagro i wouldn't feel comfortable taking him today, as im yet to trust him as a heavy favourite against a good defender.

[stable unit]

Originally Posted by stable unit

Mahut over Robredo @2.5 (Bet365 sunday night)
0.67 units to win 1 unit

Lopez over Fish @2.1
0.91 units to win 1 unit

Ljubicic over Berdych @2.52 (Betfair)
0.66 units to win 1 unit

Originally Posted by stable unit

Young over Lee @2.4
0.71 units to win 1 unit

Calleri over Monaco @2.5 (one ball book)
0.67 units to win 1 unit

Originally Posted by stable unit

Hernandez over Almagro 2.62(one ball book)
0.61 units to win 1 unit

2-3-1

-0.19 units

[stable unit]

Seppi over Soderling @3.4
0.42 units to win 1 unit

Soderling is the better indoor player and rightfully favouurite here, but not by so much that 1.4 is justified on him. Seppi has been playing great tennis indoors recently, and sometimes Soderling can be fairly wooden in play leaking UE. I think this match will be close with Seppi being more consistent from the baseline attempting to neutralise Soderling' power.

Gabashvili over Simon @3.05
0.48 units to win 1 unit

Opposote reasoning to other match, the match will lie with the power of Gabashvili. He to has been consistent for a couple of weeks now coming through qualifying and beating JCF and Mahut to get to the quarters. Simon has the capability to grind TG down over long rallies, but again i think value at these odds. There last two meetings have been on clay so i like TG chances more today with the extra court speed.

[stable unit]

Originally Posted by stable unit

Seppi over Soderling @3.4
0.42 units to win 1 unit

Gabashvili over Simon @3.05
0.48 units to win 1 unit

LL -0.9 units

Adding:

Chela over Almagro @2.6
0.62 units to win 1 unit

Bucking the trend on this one on a rowdy night in Buenos Aires.

[stable unit]

Originally Posted by stable unit

Chela over Almagro @2.6
0.62 units to win 1 unit

Win

[stable unit]

Simon over Soderling @3
0.5 units to win 1 unit

Simon for me, playing great tennis and this should be much closer than the odds suggest. Like Simon to do what Seppi couldn't and neutralize Soder's power from the baseline and work the point. Seppi's body language was awful yesterday, this should be good match.