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Old 12-20-2007, 09:14 AM   #1
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Default Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Some of you may have heard that expression and some of you may not.
For those that havn't this post is for you.

On every sporting event bookmakers will set a line, are they accurate to the actual probablity everytime?
hell no. Granted certain sports are less likely for the lines to be "off" it can occur on any sport.

Perhaps the best way to explain what I am on about is to give an example.
A friend and I play golf, he is not my usual golfing buddy. We play on average once every month or so. Our first match he beat me by 4 shots. I came back and edged him 2 matches later. Overall he has me about 12 to 7.

Now lets say bookmakers were to frame a market each time we played from now on, starting off the next round they have me at 4.00 (+300) and him at
1.23 (-440). Some of the variable info is favourable for me the course we are playing at is the one I have beat him at most out of any of the courses and the wind is going to blow hard.

Now with everything taken into consideration would you say my line of +300 is an accurate reflection of the outcome of our match?

If you answered no then you would be correct. This is an exmple of where the line of what the bookmaker has set is "overs"---over the odds, over what the line really should be.
Simply put--the odds of +300 is not an accurate reflection of the outcome of our match. As a gambler given all the circumstances for this upcoming match u should be on that +300 everytime because in the long run it would be profitable.

Now lets change things up. Say bookmakers come out with 1.83 (-120) for him and 2.00 (+100) for me. This one has gone too far the other way, for me as a gambler (not that I bet on our golf matches!) it would either be a bet on him or a pass.

Based on everything I think a fair reflection of our next match would be him at 1.63 (-155) and me at 2.35 (+135). As a gambler I think that is an accurate reflection of our match and it would be a no bet for me.

Learn to know the probablity of what u are betting relative to the lines set and use it to work in your favour.


Goodluck

dave nz
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Old 12-20-2007, 08:19 PM   #2
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Yes nice post, i would just like to say that i for one find it hard to accurately calculate a prediction. I can often study a tennis match and spot a 50/50 match in which case the odds are obviously 2.00 either way im my mind.

However, the real problem is can you accurately say that someone has a 60%, 70% or 75% chance of winning? Very hard to give a precise prediction.


I have become quite familiar and fond of the so called backwards way of looking at NFL spreads. Im not sure in the slightest whether i am correct here but upon looking at the Ravens vs Dolphins spread, my initial thought was that the Ravens would kill the Dolphins and i guess a lot of people believed the same. They'd have seen the -3.5 on offer and jumped on the price probably even taking the juice and buying -2.5. The bookmakers appeared to want money on the Ravens as perhaps the sharps had been all over the Dolphins +3.5.

Example 2: The Vikings and Bears put up 65 points in Chicago and the bookies are offering a 43 point game total MNF in dome???? Im guessing the public would have been all over the 'over', hence i posted my wager on the under in the NFL betting forum. It seems to me thinking down these lines can be very helpful indeed.

Any opinions welcome.
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Old 12-20-2007, 08:26 PM   #3
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Quote:
Originally Posted by stable unit View Post

I have become quite familiar and fond of the so called backwards way of looking at NFL spreads. Im not sure in the slightest whether i am correct here but upon looking at the Ravens vs Dolphins spread, my initial thought was that the Ravens would kill the Dolphins and i guess a lot of people believed the same. They'd have seen the -3.5 on offer and jumped on the price probably even taking the juice and buying -2.5. The bookmakers appeared to want money on the Ravens as perhaps the sharps had been all over the Dolphins +3.5.
There was no reason to believe that the Ravens would "kill" the Dolphins, for these reasons;

-Miami have been poor, but many of their defeats have been close calls, that could have gone their way.

-Baltimore have had a poor season themselves and are no offensive juggernaught by any means, so any win they have is usually a close one.

-Injuries on Baltimore D leading up meant that you had to take into account this isn't your Baltimore D from recent years.

I would have picked Baltimore to win the match too, and had Billick not made a horrible decision to tie the game instead of go for the win from the 1 yard line (when they had absolutely nothing to lose as far as their season was concerned) at the end of the 4th Q, then they may well have.
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Old 12-20-2007, 08:33 PM   #4
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

One last point:

TNF and all the press leaks have been how tired and beat up the Steelers are, how the Jags and Pats have gashed the much vaunted Steeler D. Even a few widely read pundits even picked the Rams SU, you can get +7.5 on the Rams tonight at home and im guessing through a few forums read that the majority of people are going to be on the Rams +7.5.

Lets see if in actual fact Pittsburgh run away with this?

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Old 12-20-2007, 09:12 PM   #5
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Pittsburgh will get the W. Rams just aren't good enough all round to win this although they still have Bulger, Jackson and Holt to make plays. Maybe they'll cover the spread, but as far as ML goes, this is the Steelers game and they very much need it.
The fact that Steelers have lost on the road this season to teams they should have beaten and that it has been such a talking point for them - points to the belief that they won't be underestimating the Rams and will go home with a much needed win.
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Old 12-21-2007, 03:02 AM   #6
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Quote:
Originally Posted by stable unit View Post
One last point:

TNF and all the press leaks have been how tired and beat up the Steelers are, how the Jags and Pats have gashed the much vaunted Steeler D. Even a few widely read pundits even picked the Rams SU, you can get +7.5 on the Rams tonight at home and im guessing through a few forums read that the majority of people are going to be on the Rams +7.5.

Lets see if in actual fact Pittsburgh run away with this?

Bingo-bango

I think in attempting to read the line, it suggested this play. Im sure im not the first to ever think this theory but im happy now.

Last edited by stable unit : 12-21-2007 at 03:15 AM.
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Old 12-21-2007, 08:25 AM   #7
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Good stuff Dave, thanks for sharing.

Actually this thread has got me thinking about the restructure to the gambling forum I'm planning to discuss with the site webmaster over the next couple of weeks. I definitely see some value in a sub forum where posters can discuss any interesting strategies and gambling related articles across all sports not just tennis.
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Old 12-21-2007, 08:31 AM   #8
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Quote:
Originally Posted by stable unit View Post

I think in attempting to read the line, it suggested this play. Im sure im not the first to ever think this theory but im happy now.
Google "reverse odds analysis" and see what you get as the first result lol

Theory has been around for years mate, I've been applying it sporadically over the past year. I found it a very useful tool for sports capping of specific sports.
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Old 12-21-2007, 06:09 PM   #9
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

This is what Gambling forums are all about, people sharing ideas, right or wrong and discussing it together in a good manner.

No wind up merchants causing arguments.
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Old 12-21-2007, 06:24 PM   #10
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Quote:
Originally Posted by dave nz View Post
Learn to know the probablity of what u are betting relative to the lines set and use it to work in your favour.
Great article, and thanks for sharing.

Winning long-term is all about picking value, as difficult as it is to do.
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Old 03-16-2008, 10:18 AM   #11
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilles View Post
Great article, and thanks for sharing.

Winning long-term is all about picking value, as difficult as it is to do.
I beg to differ.

I think winning long-term is about picking winners.

Nothing is to say that the 'value' picks won't keep on losing for an extended period of time.
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Old 03-18-2008, 02:17 AM   #12
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Quote:
Originally Posted by its.like.that View Post
I beg to differ.

I think winning long-term is about picking winners.

Nothing is to say that the 'value' picks won't keep on losing for an extended period of time.
Yep

Bet slowly and be patient is the game of winning.

Get $1000 - put it on what would be a good bet - say Hawthorn to beat Melbourne @ $1.33 on Sunday. That's $330 profit you've made in one weekend providing Hawthorn don't stumble. The next week, find another decent bet and do the same - for example it could be Geelong at home to beat Carlton @ $1.20 - $1.30 - Again, that's another 200 odd bucks you've made. Do that over the course of 22 weeks and you've suddenly made around $7000 in 22 weeks. Not bad!
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Old 03-18-2008, 02:23 AM   #13
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Bolar I have a friendly challenge for you. Over the course of the AFL season, play a virtual $1,000 on a $1.25 shot or more per round and see if you win them all. I bet you will slip up somewhere along the line, even more than once IMO.

And if that happens there is absolutely no value in that strategy you outlined above.
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Old 03-18-2008, 02:26 AM   #14
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

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Bolar I have a friendly challenge for you. Over the course of the AFL season, play a virtual $1,000 on a $1.25 shot or more per round and see if you win them all. I bet you will slip up somewhere along the line, even more than once IMO.

And if that happens there is absolutely no value in that strategy you outlined above.
Okay! I'll give it a go virtually.
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Old 03-18-2008, 06:31 AM   #15
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Default Re: Betting at "over the odds" and how it can help you

Actually, i'd like to see this for real. Are u able to make a virtual game for him that we can all see how he does? Basically like that virtual tennis stuff.
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