[Sunset of Age]

Originally Posted by BlueSwan

Updated after the AO

Thanks a lot for the update!

But I noticed (correct me if I'm wrong about that) that you didn't take into account that Djoko and Rafa will be playing Rotterdam coming February (if they actually turn up over there, of course...), where both of them can gain a lot of points as it'will be their first appearance over there. That might well mean that both of them may get a lot closer to Roger's ranking points even before Dubai starts off.

[ExpectedWinner]

Originally Posted by ClayBuzza

Thanks a lot for the update!

But I noticed (correct me if I'm wrong about that) that you didn't take into account that Djoko and Rafa will be playing Rotterdam coming February (if they actually turn up over there, of course...), where both of them can gain a lot of points as it'will be their first appearance over there. That might well mean that both of them may get a lot closer to Roger's ranking points even before Dubai starts off.

Djoker has to to defend his SF points in Rotterdam.

[Sunset of Age]

Originally Posted by ExpectedWinner

Djoker has to to defend his SF points in Rotterdam.

Thanks for the correction. How far did he get there last year? Not to the final as far as I remember as that was Youzhny - Ljubicic. So I guess he, too, can win quite a few points there.

[ExpectedWinner]

Originally Posted by ClayBuzza

Thanks for the correction. How far did he get there last year? Not to the final as far as I remember as that was Youzhny - Ljubicic. So I guess he, too, can win quite a few points there.

He reached the semis, lost to Misha.

[SUKTUEN]

thanks for the change of thread!

GO Roger!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BlueSwan]

Originally Posted by ClayBuzza

Thanks a lot for the update!

But I noticed (correct me if I'm wrong about that) that you didn't take into account that Djoko and Rafa will be playing Rotterdam coming February (if they actually turn up over there, of course...), where both of them can gain a lot of points as it'will be their first appearance over there. That might well mean that both of them may get a lot closer to Roger's ranking points even before Dubai starts off.

I did take it into account, but I now see that they way I wrote it was misguiding. I wrote that Nadal could gain 475 points at "those two tournaments" meaning Rotterdam/Dubai, but it was written in a context where it could easily have been misinterpreted to mean Indian Wells/Miami. I've changed it now, so that the meaning is clear.

For the record, a win at Rotterdam would leave Nadal trailing Roger by only 400 points. If he also wins Dubai he would gain a further 300 points. BUT he would lose the 55 pionts won at Queens due to having too many optionals. Roger would then have to reach the final of Dubai, whereby he would still lead Nadal by a measly 65 points. So there it is:

If Nadal wins both Rotterdam and Dubai, and Roger doesn't reach the Dubai final, he'll lose the #1 ranking. Doesn't seem very likely, though.

If Nadal wins Rotterdam (gains 250 points) and makes the Dubai final (gains 210-75 = 135 points) he'll gain a total of 250 + 135 - 55 = 330 points and be at a career high 6310 points. Roger, however, is at 6330 points, even when his Dubai points come off.

So there you have it: Nadal will have to win BOTH Rotterdam and Dubai while Roger fails to reach the finals of Dubai. That's the only way that Federer loses the #1 ranking before Indian Wells/Miami.

[BlueSwan]

Another good thing is that Roger has only played TWO optionals during the last 12 months. Conceivably he could pick up a lot of additional points by playing the maximum of 5 optionals. Both Nadal and Djokovic have played more than 5 optionals during the last 12 months. Who knows, he might even consider playing an optional before Dubai.

[Sunset of Age]

Thanks a lot for all of the work, BlueSwan. Much appreciated!

[BlueSwan]

Actually Nadal can get even close to Roger without actually overtaking him:

If Nadal wins Dubai (300´- 75 = 225 points) and makes the final of Rotterdam (175 points) he gains 300 + 175 - 55 = 345 points and reaches a total of 6325 points. Roger is at 6330 points even if he doesn't play Dubai. But he would lead by only 5 points. How cruel if Nadal were to get that close, but never actually get to #1.

[Sunset of Age]

Originally Posted by BlueSwan

Actually Nadal can get even close to Roger without actually overtaking him:

If Nadal wins Dubai (300´- 75 = 225 points) and makes the final of Rotterdam (175 points) he gains 300 + 175 - 55 = 345 points and reaches a total of 6325 points. Roger is at 6330 points even if he doesn't play Dubai. But he would lead by only 5 points. How cruel if Nadal were to get that close, but never actually get to #1.

Yep. Know what/ It´s just like Roger said himself / if he were to lose that #1 position to anyone else / it better be Rafa.

[SUKTUEN]

Originally Posted by BlueSwan

If Nadal wins Dubai (300´- 75 = 225 points) and makes the final of Rotterdam (175 points) he gains 300 + 175 - 55 = 345 points and reaches a total of 6325 points. Roger is at 6330 points even if he doesn't play Dubai. But he would lead by only 5 points. How cruel if Nadal were to get that close, but never actually get to #1.

Roger will play Dubai of course~~

[Marcel Jordan]

Originally Posted by SUKTUEN

Roger will play Dubai of course~~

Agreed. Especially when he practises there ever so often.

[SUKTUEN]

Originally Posted by Marcel Jordan

Agreed. Especially when he practises there ever so often.

Yes, he know everything well in Dubai~~

[Filipo]

this year Dubai is a week later, which means that Federer will lose 300 points before the tournament. so we have 650 points difference:

So till Dubai:
Nadal can gain 250 (Rotterdam) and -75 (last year Dubai)
Federer will lose his 300 from last year Dubai.
The difference will be: 650 - 250 + 75 - 300 = 175 points

In Dubai the points are:
W - 300
F - 210
SF - 135
QF - 75
R16 - 25
R32 - 0

So there are 2 possibilities for Nadal to be Number 1 (for a short time):
1. If Nadal wins the tournament, and Federer lose in 1st or 2nd round
2. If Nadal lose the final, and Federer lose in 1st or 2nd round.

So Roger has to reach the QF to ensure his Number 1, if Nadal wins Rotterdam of course. Everything is in Roger's hands and i really don't think he will drop his Number 1 off.

[BlueSwan]

Originally Posted by Filipo

this year Dubai is a week later, which means that Federer will lose 300 points before the tournament. so we have 650 points difference:

So till Dubai:
Nadal can gain 250 (Rotterdam) and -75 (last year Dubai)
Federer will lose his 300 from last year Dubai.
The difference will be: 650 - 250 + 75 - 300 = 175 points

In Dubai the points are:
W - 300
F - 210
SF - 135
QF - 75
R16 - 25
R32 - 0

So there are 2 possibilities for Nadal to be Number 1 (for a short time):
1. If Nadal wins the tournament, and Federer lose in 1st or 2nd round
2. If Nadal lose the final, and Federer lose in 1st or 2nd round.

So Roger has to reach the QF to ensure his Number 1, if Nadal wins Rotterdam of course. Everything is in Roger's hands and i really don't think he will drop his Number 1 off.

Yes, I f*cked up the calculations earlier. But so did you - reaching the qaurters won't be enough to secure #1.

Here are all the ways for Nadal to reach #1:

1) If Federer gets to the semifinals of Dubai, then he's safe.

2) If Federer gets to the quarters at Dubai, then Nadal can become #1 by winning both Rotterdam and Dubai.

3) If Federer loses in the first or second round at Dubai, Nadal can become #1 by winning Rotterdam and getting to the final of Dubai OR by winning Dubai while getting to the semifinal of Rotterdam.

So actually it looks at bit more grim than first expected. But still not a very likely event.