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Old 05-21-2013, 11:53 PM   #1651
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

He's working for the long term, remember? Anyway, if Murray is out of RG and Roger does well, the two of them could end up playing leapfrog again.
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Old 05-22-2013, 09:40 AM   #1652
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by alypen View Post
He's working for the long term, remember? Anyway, if Murray is out of RG and Roger does well, the two of them could end up playing leapfrog again.
Let's be calm and let's see what happens without having so much expectations. As Roger meant this year is a transitional for him and he's trying to recharge his body so pessimistically hoping he stays into the 1st 8 seeds is enough to make him attack the titles and the ranking the next year.
This year is very strange. All the top 4 are playing badly. Nadal is the only up to now able to do the best but their level is generally low so if Roger gets fitter he can beat them all if they don't rise their level of play.

BTW Murray is losing 360 pints of the QF but Roger played the SF so if he maintains the SF the distance will be 200points and if he reaches the final he is surpassing Andy.
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Old 05-22-2013, 03:02 PM   #1653
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Old 05-31-2013, 10:06 AM   #1654
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Putting it in perspective, Connors fell out of the top 5 for the last time in June of 1988, when he was 36. He was out of the top 10 a year later for good when he was 37. Federer is not yet 32.

Connors first fell out of the top 4 in 1986, when he was 34. Federer still has 2 years to match him in longevity.

Federer is the first player to pose a significant challenge to Connor's longevity records.

Lendl's decline was pretty quick. Hit 5 in Jan of 1992. Hit 10 by April. Stayed in the bottom top 10 for a year. Was out of the top 10 by August 1993. Was out of the top 20 by August of 1994. By October of 1994 he was pretty much done. Stuck around for another year. So looking at his top 5 and then subsequent decline, he played three and a half years after falling out of the top 5.

Lendl was born March of 1960 - making him 31 and 10 months when he first fell out of the top 5.

Federer is about his age and is still at 3. Which speaks volumes for how his career has had better longevity than Lendl.

Let's say Lendl first reached 5 in 1981. He would have been around 21 when he first reached 5. Federer first reached 5 in January of 2003, when he was 21 and 5 months. So Federer's development was around 5 months slower than Lendl.

In order for Federer to have the same career trajectory as Lendl, he would have to stay in the top 5 for 6 months longer than Lendl - or until the end of this year staying in the top 5.

So, while Federer has had the third best career by sheer longevity - he's still not quite as far along as Lendl.
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Old 05-31-2013, 10:34 AM   #1655
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

One more thing:

Juan Martin del Potro.

Presently 24 and 8 months.

June of 1974 - Stan Smith was the youngest GS winner. He was born December of 1946.

He was 27 years and 6 months when Borg finally broke through. Borg was born in 1955 - nearly a full decade younger than Stan Smith. 8 years later at the French:

June of 1982 - Wilander broke through with his first win. Then youngest slam winner was John McEnroe at February of 1959, was 23 and 4 months old. Seven years later at the French:

June of 1989 - Becker in November of 1967 was the youngest slam winner at 21 and a half, before Chang broke through.

June of 1996 - Seven years later - Kafelnikov broke through. Then prior youngest slam winner was Pete Sampras. Pete Sampras was August of 1971, and was 24 and 10 months, the same age as Juan Martin del Potro.

The only time this pattern was broken is after the weakest generation in Tennis history - with Marat Safin in 2000, breaking through just 3 and a half years after Kafelnikov did at the US Open.

2005, five years later, you have Rafael Nadal winning the French open. Then youngest was

Every time there has been a generational shift, save for Safin at the USO - it has happened at the French.

The longest time between a generation change was from 1974 with Borg to 1982 with Wilander. 8 years, and from now, since Nadal broke through in 2005 and the Nadal - del Potro generation. Del Potro is now older than any other previous holding generation, since Stan Smith and the changeover to Borg back in 1974.
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Old 05-31-2013, 10:37 AM   #1656
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

So, let's take a look at some of these transformational French Opens:

1974, 1982, 1989, 1989, 1996, and 2005.
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Old 05-31-2013, 10:57 AM   #1657
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by JediFed View Post
O
June of 1989 - Becker in November of 1967 was the youngest slam winner at 21 and a half, before Chang broke through.

June of 1996 - Seven years later - Kafelnikov broke through. Then prior youngest slam winner was Pete Sampras. Pete Sampras was August of 1971, and was 24 and 10 months, the same age as Juan Martin del Potro.
Sampras was never the youngest slam champion. Chang is younger than him.
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Old 05-31-2013, 10:59 AM   #1658
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Seedings:

1. Nastase
2. Kodes
3. BORG
4. Ashe
5. Gorman
6. Smith
7. Panatta
8. Metreveli
9. Ramirez
10. Jauffret
11. Bertolucci
12. Dibbs
13. Riessen
14. Orantes
15. Gottfried
16. Fillol Sr.

First round, Kodes and Nastase advance without dropping a set. Ashe, and Borg struggle, but win. Smith out. Bertolucci, the only other seed in Borg's section is out. Borg now has Gorman and Ramirez in his quarter and that's it.

Second round:

1. Nastase
2. Kodes
3. BORG
4. Ashe
5. Gorman
6. Smith
7. Panatta
8. Metreveli
9. Ramirez
10. Jauffret
12. Dibbs
13. Riessen
14. Orantes
15. Gottfried
16. Fillol Sr.

Metreveli, Panatta, Gorman, and Gottfried were all out. Reissen, Borg, Nastase, and Ramirez the only seeds in the bottom half. Top has Fillol Sr, Orantes, Ashe, Dibbs, Jauffret and Kodes. Already the tournament has quite a few surprises.

No surprises in the third round, leading to fourth round matches of Kodes/Jauffret, Pohmann/Dibbs, Ashe/Orantes, (brutal draw for Ashe), Cornejo/Fillol Sr, (terribly weak quarter), Ramirez/Koch, Borg/Van Dillen, Riessen/Solomon, (Solomon barely survived Franulovic who took out Metreveli in straights, then Nastase/Parun.

Jauffret upset Kodes, opening up the top half. Pohmann did the same to Dibbes. Orantes beat seeded Ashe, earning a shot at the final and became the favourite, and Cornejo won. With Kodes down, that left just Nastase in for the old Guard.

Ramirez, Nastase, Solomon and Borg all won in the bottom half leading to a massively imbalanced tournament, with Ashe, and Kodes out. Borg barely survived his match vs. Erik van Dillen. 0-6 6-3 6-3 5-7 6-3, dug himself a huge hole and then dug himself out.

QFs were Jauffret/Pohmann Orantes/Cornejo, boring on the one side. Other side had classic Borg/Ramirez, Solomon/Nastase. Ramirez came the closest to knocking out Borg, 6-2 5-7 4-6 6-2 6-3, forcing Borg to win 2 sets to stay in the tournament.

Solomon pulled off the upset of the tournament. Starting from unseeded, KOd number 1 seed Nastase. Also in 5. Put Nastase in a 2-0 hole, where he almost climbed out and eaked it out in the end. 6-4 6-4 0-6 3-6 6-4.

Semifinals were Jauffret/Orantes vs the much anticipated Borg/Solomon. At this point - all the former winners were out by the Semifinals, so they knew that finally there would be a young winner. Borg beat Solomon and Orantes won, setting up a classic final. Borg started out terrible and then got better, outclassing Orantes by the end.

Borg survived three five setters, a four setter vs. Solomon, beating Orantes, Solomon, Ramirez and Van Dillon. playing himself into form to claim his first French open and his first GS title. He was just 18.
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Old 05-31-2013, 11:17 AM   #1659
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Quote:
Sampras was never the youngest slam champion. Chang is younger than him.
So Chang was the first of his generation to break through at the French, and was still the youngest by about 6 months then, 23 and a half when Kafelnikov broke through in 1996.

Interesting.

Anyways, seeds of the breakthrough players:

Borg (3), - 1974 defeated Ramirez (9), Solomon, Orantes (14)

Wilander (unseeded) - 1982, defeated Lendl (2) 5 sets Gerulaitis (5), Clerc (4), Vilas (3). Helluva a draw. He beat everybody!

Connors at (1) was out in the Quarterfinals. Vilas was the last of the old guard and lost in the finals.

Chang (15) - 1989. Sampras (unseeded) (2nd Round), Lendl (1)!, Edberg (3), also five sets. Wilander defeated by Chesnokov. Becker defeated by Edberg. Agassi defeated by Courier, Courier by Chesnokov.

Chesnokov defeated Courier, Wilander but fell to Chang. Edberg defeated Becker, and Ivanisevic! Interesting draw there...

1996 French Open:

Kafelnikov (6)

Beat Krajicek (13), Sampras (1) (his only clay Semis!), Stich(15),

Sampras beat Bruguera, Courier, only to fall to Kafelnikov. Ferreira beat Kuerten, beat by Courier, Agassi was a non factor carving out a QF for Krajicek. Ivanisevic had a cheap draw.

Really tough draw for Chang (4). Chang beat Edberg again, only to lose to Rosset. Goran never faced a seed and only faced Rosset in the QFs. Rios nearly made the QFs, losing to Pioline, but beating Korda.

Stich opened up his path through Muster. So lots of seeds fell quite early, and all the servers did well, Krajicek, Sampras, Ivanisevic.

And we all know what happened in 2005, with Fed in the Semifinals.

So there we go. Only once has it been an unseeded youngun, with unseeded Wilander.

Wilander (Unseeded)
Chang (15)
Kafelnikov (6)
Nadal (5)
Borg (3)

Only once has the draw been wide open - in 1974. Every other time, the old guard was in the finals, or the semifinals as the case was for Federer/Nadal. Wilander/Vilas Stich/Kafelnikov and Chang/Edberg.
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Old 05-31-2013, 11:32 AM   #1660
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Oldest 'breakthrough' player:

Kafelnikov at 22 and change. All the rest were teenagers.

Looking at the present list of folks, that would mean only those 22 or so would be eligible.

Still in the draw:

Jerzy Janowicz (22), Milos Raonic (22), Dimitrov among the seeds.

Harrison outside.

So that leaves basically four people who are left for the 'exciting' breakthough.

Personally, I don't think the breakthrough is coming this year, looking at the options available. I think this will be the longest stretch without a 'breakthrough' slam winner, ever, just because the preceding two generations are so strong, and because the upcoming generations are so weak. Look at the difference between Kafelnikov (6) and the fact that there's no one in the top 10 here that are 22 now. Closest is Raonic and he's still outside.

Connors wasn't yet 22 when he first won a slam.

Harrison is 21 and a bit, about 8 months younger than Connors was when he first won, and about a year or so younger than Kafelnikov. He's also in the 1992 generation.

Longest age gap in slam winners is the 5 year gap from Connors to Stan Smith, from 1952 to 1947. Potro at 1988, would give us 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992.
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Old 05-31-2013, 04:55 PM   #1661
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Old 06-28-2013, 02:18 AM   #1662
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Roger will be 5th after Wimbledon.

It will be the first time since the begining of Wimbledon 2003. So 10 years in the top 10.

He needs to re-enforce his new position because Berdych and Del Potro are near in the race to London.
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Old 06-28-2013, 02:20 PM   #1663
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

HopeRoger can play WTF this year too~
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Old 06-29-2013, 03:32 AM   #1664
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Quote:
Originally Posted by Julián Santiago View Post
Roger will be 5th after Wimbledon.

It will be the first time since the begining of Wimbledon 2003. So 10 years in the top 10.

He needs to re-enforce his new position because Berdych and Del Potro are near in the race to London.
You mean 10 years in the top 4?
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Old 07-09-2013, 01:03 PM   #1665
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

world number 5, it just doesnt seem right

he needs to catch ferrer up soon
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