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In-depth analysis of matchups/matchup issues between ATP players

51K views 318 replies 89 participants last post by  Wawrinkitis 
#1 · (Edited)
I came accross a very unfortunate MTF thread questioning if matchups existed in tennis :facepalm: That however gave me the idea of discussing the worst matchup issues between top 10/20 players.

I'm not referring to awkward matchups here (eg. Berdych to Federer), more to situations where a certain players finds another (almost) impossible to overcome, extreme matchup issues and the reason why they exist. Here are some - five: (I left Federer vs Nadal out on purpose as that particular matchup has been discussed to death, was more looking to talk about less discussed matchups)

Nadal vs Berdych

Nadal leads 12-3, but has won the last 11 matches, dropping only 2 sets in the process. He won 20 consecutive sets at one point. Berdych played a brillaint match earlier this year in Australia, still didn't take more than a set.

Reasons for this:

-Berdych's game is based on overpowering/hitting through his opponents from the baseline, his serve isn't a huge weapon nor is his net game. Hitting through Nadal on the current uber slow conditions is almost impossible. Nadal just keeps retrieving one more ball until Berdych inevitably makes the error.

-Berdych can't do anything on the Nadal serve. He's one of the best returners on tour, does a lot of damage even on the Federer serve. But against Nadal? Nothing. Even on second serves he can rarely get the initiative off the return.

-Nadal knows how to play against Berdych. He's usually more aggressive vs Tomas than most other matches, can take his time away better than anyone else and also expose Tomas's movement issues (as Tomas himself admitted). He also has no trouble with Berdych's hitting patterns, he actually reads them like an open book and they play into his strengths.

Federer vs Ferrer

13-0 Federer, 3 sets won by Ferrer. Most sets pretty routine for Federer.

Reasons:

-Ferrer thrives on a consistent rythm from the baseline, Federer doesn't give him that at all; he has the variety to completely mess up Ferrer's game and timing and make him leave plenty of short balls

-Federer's ability to put away short balls and volleys. Among the same lines as the first point; Ferrer can be a tricky opponent when he's allowed to rally with his opponent and turn the match into an endurance/griding contest, Federer simply never allows that to happen. Add to that the fact that Ferrer can't return the Federer serve if his life depended on it and you have the most one sided head-to-head in top level tennis, only likely to become even more one sided.

Federer vs Soderling

16-1 Federer, 5 sets won by Soderling overall. Soderling did get him at RG once with a stunning performance, but the matchup issues remain. Reasons:

-Federer can take Soderling's time away/rush him and force him to be constantly on the defensive. This is the main issue really; Soderling loves to unleash his huge strokes and against Federer that is harder than against anyone else. Federer can wrestle the initiative and make him defend more than anyone else on tour and expose his movement issues. Soderling needs to serve huge and return great to have a chance against Federer on any given day, or else he will simply not allowed to have the initiative on most points, therefore being a sitting duck.

Del Potro vs Nishikori

4-0 Del Potro, 10-0 in sets, most of them blowouts. Complete ownage.

Reasons:

-Del Potro's power/foreand. Kei likes (and manages) to dictate from the baseline even against huge hitters like Tsonga and Berdych, but he can't deal with Delpo's power and all. Especially JMDP's forehand that constantly pushes him far behind the baseline. Despite his quickness around the court, Kei lacks world class defensive skills and really struggles when he's forced to play defense, which he invariably is against Delpo. His lack of a serve allows JMDP to have the initiative even on his serve games and break him time and again (20 breaks in 10 sets). Will be tough for Kei to even win a set in this matchup in the future if he can't come up with a different strategy, rallying with Del Potro is a losing battle as the Argentine easily overpowers him.

Djokovic vs Cilic

7-0 Djokovic, one set for Cilic with 9-7 in the tiebreak. All very straightforward wins for Novak.

Reasons:

-Cilic's serve is horrible for a guy his size and a liability in general (not that strong 1st serve, poor %), Djokovic is the best returner on tour... you do the Math.

-Nole can easily frustrate Marin with his defense, making him go for too much and leak errors. Nole can even overpower him at times as well. There's basically no safe place to go for Marin in this matchup.


I know there are more examples (maybe more glarring) and also maybe more reasons for these examples, these were just the first that came to mind. Do feel free to argue these five and the reasons and to indicate others :p

Other matchups discussed - some of them not complete mismatches but still interesting discussions - , with links:

Ferrer vs Almagro

Andreev vs Kohlschreiber

Davydenko vs Gonzalez

Davydenko vs Blake

Del Potro vs Soderling

Gasquet vs Simon

Simon vs Federer

Ferrer vs Gasquet - + most of the posts from #62 to #70

Murray vs Simon

Murray vs Federer

Davydenko vs Berdych

Nadal vs Dolgopolov

Del Potro vs Haas

Haas vs Nadal

Simon vs Tipsarevic - also post #139

Haas vs Davydenko - also post #146

Berdych vs Del Potro

Gasquet vs Nadal

Monfils vs Kohlschreiber

Nalbandian vs Soderling

Soderling vs Tsonga

Ferrer vs Del Potro

Nalbandian vs Gasquet

Nadal vs Wawrinka

del Potro vs big hitters

Worst matchups for Djokovic, Del Potro, Tsonga, Simon (including best matchups) and Murray - most posts from #76 to #117
 
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#2 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

I don't know what to say besides good read :shrug:
 
#3 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

I've got another for ya, Berdych-Djokovic, Nole leads 9-1.
 
#7 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

I've got another for ya, Berdych-Djokovic, Nole leads 9-1.
This is not explained by matchup, but by Berdych's mental midgetery vs Novak. They have actually split first sets in their matches (5-5) and Berdych has had chances in a lot of them. You could write a book with all the times Berdych choked vs Nole (even in the one match he won). It's a difficult matchup for Berdych for sure, but far from an unsurmountable one from a tennis point of view.

You say that Berdych hitting through Rafa on slow surfaces doesn't work, but I thought that this was pretty much the only way to beat Rafa on slow surfaces, like Soderling and Del Potro can do.

Didn't you also say once that Cilic has a pretty good serve?
Del Potro is far more consistent with his power than Berdych. He doesn't try to hit through Rafa from the baseline, but rather draw a short ball from him to finish the point. Soderling's huge swings allow him to generate more power; Berdych's compact swings are a strength against a guy like Federer who thus can't time his time away, but against Rafa on slow courts you really need to unload yo have a good chance.

Cilic's serve is horrendous. It used to be decent back in late 2009/early 2010 (albeit weak for a big guy), now it's just horrendous in general, I'd say Djokovic serves better.
 
#4 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

How about Ferrer-Almagro 11-0? :shrug:
 
#12 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

How about Ferrer-Almagro 11-0? :shrug:
11-1, Almagro won a Bilbao masters match in 09', whatever that is.
 
#5 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

You say that Berdych hitting through Rafa on slow surfaces doesn't work, but I thought that this was pretty much the only way to beat Rafa on slow surfaces, like Soderling and Del Potro can do.

Didn't you also say once that Cilic has a pretty good serve?
 
#6 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

One of the reasons Nadal owns berdshit is his lefty kicker out wide that berdshit can't seem to counter. He generally has more trouble with heavy serves and he is more comfortable with ball bashing Olderer's faster, flatter serve back into play with his short backswings rather than dealing with topspin. Olderer is the same way - he returns Roddick's 240kmh serves with ease, but struggles against Nadal's slow 180kmh serves, especially to backhand.
 
#10 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Andreev-Kohlschreiber 7-0 (8-0 if you include hopman cup)

Analyze away :lol:
 
#15 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

You could also argue that Nadal hates Berdshit, which is another reason why he lifts his game against him.
 
#19 · (Edited)
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

The Berdych vs Nadal matchup is an anomaly honestly... Lenders doesn't acknowledge the fact that Berdych was well on his way to be a true nightmare for Rafa, being 3:1 up in the H2H. But for whatever reason, after Berdych beat Rafa in front of the Spanish crowd and hushed the crowd, he appeared to almost feel bad for Rafa and suddenly lost any sort of belief of beating Nadal. I mean he has the right game to beat Rafa.. tall, flat powerful groundstrokes, strong (but inconsistent) serve and he doesn't mind finishing a point off at the net. He merely lacks confidence.. Look at their matches at the Australian Open and Rome this year. Yes, Rafa played very well, but Berdych played some points very poorly at the most important moments. That lack of confidence is the story of Berdych's life since 2006. I mean you can't tell me you don't see a difference between his mental attitude when he faces Roger the past few years compared to facing Rafa the past few years. Literally it seems like his belief against Roger and Rafa reversed, because at the beginning, he seemed to have no belief against Federer either (aside from their Olympics meeting in 2004), he since that Miami match in 2010 he suddenly got confidence.

Overall, the list is OK, however, perhaps you give technical aspects a bit too much respect in many of these respective matchups. Much of these issues also stem from confidence between two players. I mean there are several examples where a certain player has a positive H2H record against one but a negative H2H record against another yet both opponents have a similar game.. I guess the Nishikori example could work here where Kei hasn't beaten Juan Martin yet he is 3:1 against Berdych. Obviously there are certainly many other factors involved here, and it may be so that Del Potro just plainly may be a better player than Berdych, but their games are comparable. Kei clearly lacks the confidence against Del Potro yet he seems calm against Berdych.
 
#21 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

The Berdych vs Nadal matchup is an anomaly honestly... Lenders doesn't acknowledge the fact that Berdych was well on his way to be a true nightmare for Rafa, being 3:1 up in the H2H. But for whatever reason, after Berdych beat Rafa in front of the Spanish crowd and hushed the crowd, he appeared to almost feel bad for Rafa and suddenly any sort of belief of beating Nadal. I mean he has the right game to beat Rafa.. tall, flat powerful groundstrokes, strong (but inconsistent) serve and he doesn't mind finishing a point off at the net. He merely lacks confidence.. Look at their matches at the Australian Open and Rome this year. Yes, Rafa played very well, but Berdych played some points very poorly at the most important moments. That lack of confidence is the story of Berdych's life since 2006. I mean you can't tell me you don't see a difference between his mental attitude when he faces Roger the past few years compared to facing Rafa the past few years. Literally it seems like his belief against Roger and Rafa reversed, because at the beginning, he seemed to have no belief against Federer either (aside from their Olympics meeting in 2004), he since that Miami match in 2010 he suddenly got confidence.
Maybe he doesn't have enough confidence and effort for both at the same time, so he started with Rafa, cause he was easier, when he got the hang of Rafa, he wanted to move onto the GOAT in his mind, and show him that he's the real GOAT, at least in their matches. ;)
 
#22 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Davydenko - Gonzalez 6-0 14-1 in sets for Kolya:
Reason: Davydenko's playing fast thus exploiting Gonzos huge backswing on the forehand side but not with firepower but with speed and accuracy thus his punching sliced backhand isn't working cause it has little backswing and it is alot harder to counterpunch weaker than more powerful shots.
 
#29 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Davydenko - Gonzalez 6-0 14-1 in sets for Kolya:
Reason: Davydenko's playing fast thus exploiting Gonzos huge backswing on the forehand side but not with firepower but with speed and accuracy thus his punching sliced backhand isn't working cause it has little backswing and it is alot harder to counterpunch weaker than more powerful shots.
davydenko's speed also disturbs Del Po a lot : Davydenko leads 3-2 but one match was lost because of a retirement, and the other one was on clay.
 
#23 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

nice thread Mark! Gotta say I'm abit surprised about the honest review of Ferrer. Almost seems like you respect him ;)
 
#25 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

nice thread Mark! Gotta say I'm abit surprised about the honest review of Ferrer. Almost seems like you respect him ;)
That's cause he's changed his tune since he got found out. :devil:
 
#26 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

In most H2Hs I've observed that the ability of the players to read the opponent's serve plays a huge role, huger than the aspects of the rallies. It's really strange but this ability varies a lot : it's far from being as easy as to say "X is a great server, Y is a poor returner then ...", it really depends who is against who.

For Fed against Ferrer, Söderling and Davydenko (also Del Potro), his alternance with the sliced backhand also plays an important role.

Add to that the fact that Ferrer can't return the Federer serve if his life depended on it and you have the most one sided head-to-head in top level tennis, only likely to become even more one sided.
I'm a Fedfan but I disagree with the final part of your comment.

7 out of 13 matches between Fed and Ferrer were until the beginning of 2007 when Ferrer was not at his best yet and Fed was in his prime.

Since then, the 2 matches they played on clay were both in Madrid, which is Fed's best clay tournament, esp. this year with the blue clay (the previous one was in 2010 and was actually tight).

Ferrer is too good on clay for Fed to feel that comfortable against him. 3-1 against Djokovic on clay (and Djoko struggled in his only win in Madrid 2011), come on ...

The other 4 matches they played after Hamburg 2007 were for 3 of them in the WTF (indoors) and Cincy, Fed's favorite tournaments.

Besides, Ferrer has won 4 (and not 3 as you said) sets in the 7 last matches they played. Ferrer has improved (notably the DTL backhands) and also he has found better tactics against Fed in their last matches, especially the forehand DTL moonballs to his backhand (followed by a crosscourt forehand sometimes).

Then no, I disagree that this H2H can only get worse, I rather think this H2H is too favourable for Fed at the moment.

Del Potro vs Nishikori

4-0 Del Potro, 10-0 in sets, most of them blowouts. Complete ownage.

Reasons:

-Del Potro's power/foreand. Kei likes (and manages) to dictate from the baseline even against huge hitters like Tsonga and Berdych, but he can't deal with Delpo's power and all. Especially JMDP's forehand that constantly pushes him far behind the baseline. Despite his quickness around the court, Kei lacks world class defensive skills and really struggles when he's forced to play defense, which he invariably is against Delpo. His lack of a serve allows JMDP to have the initiative even on his serve games and break him time and again (20 breaks in 10 sets). Will be tough for Kei to even win a set in this matchup in the future if he can't come up with a different strategy, rallying with Del Potro is a losing battle as the Argentine easily overpowers him.
Nishikori leads 3-1 against Berdych, 2-0 against Tsonga, I don't think it's a matter of power.

People usually mix them all under the name of "big hitters" but imo, and I observed it makes a big difference in the way the H2Hs are with many players, Del Po and Söderling are very different from Tsonga and Berdych, in the fact that they make fewer errors and their game is based on constant power and depth (you talked a little bit about depth about Del Po and that's very important) rather than accelerations like Tsonga and Berdych. Besides, Del Po and Söderling use some spin whereas Tsonga and especially Berdych (Cilic as well) play much flatter.

Besides, contrary to you, I think Nishikori has the ability to defeat Del Po in the future, just needs to adapt his strategy, I saw their match in Wimbledon and it was far from easy for Del Po and the commentator also said that Nishikori didn't use the right strategy.

Djokovic vs Cilic

7-0 Djokovic, one set for Cilic with 9-7 in the tiebreak. All very straightforward wins for Novak.

Reasons:

-Cilic's serve is horrible for a guy his size and a liability in general (not that strong 1st serve, poor %), Djokovic is the best returner on tour... you do the Math.

-Nole can easily frustrate Marin with his defense, making him go for too much and leak errors. Nole can even overpower him at times as well. There's basically no safe place to go for Marin in this matchup.
Cilic doesn't like great defenders and playaers who have good depth, I also remember it was his main problem against Del Po.
 
#31 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

In most H2Hs I've observed that the ability of the players to read the opponent's serve plays a huge role, huger than the aspects of the rallies. It's really strange but this ability varies a lot : it's far from being as easy as to say "X is a great server, Y is a poor returner then ...", it really depends who is against who.

For Fed against Ferrer, Söderling and Davydenko (also Del Potro), his alternance with the sliced backhand also plays an important role.
True, this is the case in many matchups.



I'm a Fedfan but I disagree with the final part of your comment.

7 out of 13 matches between Fed and Ferrer were until the beginning of 2007 when Ferrer was not at his best yet and Fed was in his prime.

Since then, the 2 matches they played on clay were both in Madrid, which is Fed's best clay tournament, esp. this year with the blue clay (the previous one was in 2010 and was actually tight).

Ferrer is too good on clay for Fed to feel that comfortable against him. 3-1 against Djokovic on clay (and Djoko struggled in his only win in Madrid 2011), come on ...

The other 4 matches they played after Hamburg 2007 were for 3 of them in the WTF (indoors) and Cincy, Fed's favorite tournaments.

Besides, Ferrer has won 4 (and not 3 as you said) sets in the 7 last matches they played. Ferrer has improved (notably the DTL backhands) and also he has found better tactics against Fed in their last matches, especially the forehand DTL moonballs to his backhand (followed by a crosscourt forehand sometimes).

Then no, I disagree that this H2H can only get worse, I rather think this H2H is too favourable for Fed at the moment.
So you think Ferrer will improve the H2H? I must disagree, I fully believe Federer will win any future match between them on any surface. The Djokovic argument is void; Nole lets him play the game he likes, with long grinding rallies. Federer doesn't at all.


Nishikori leads 3-1 against Berdych, 2-0 against Tsonga, I don't think it's a matter of power.

People usually mix them all under the name of "big hitters" but imo, and I observed it makes a big difference in the way the H2Hs are with many players, Del Po and Söderling are very different from Tsonga and Berdych, in the fact that they make fewer errors and their game is based on constant power and depth (you talked a little bit about depth about Del Po and that's very important) rather than accelerations like Tsonga and Berdych. Besides, Del Po and Söderling use some spin whereas Tsonga and especially Berdych (Cilic as well) play much flatter.

Besides, contrary to you, I think Nishikori has the ability to defeat Del Po in the future, just needs to adapt his strategy, I saw their match in Wimbledon and it was far from easy for Del Po and the commentator also said that Nishikori didn't use the right strategy.
Del Potro has far more power than Berdych and Tsonga, especially off the FH. Kei can dictate player against those two, against Del Potro he can't, he gets pushed back every time JMDP gets a full swing on a FH.

Oh Kei could surely get a win some time in the future, but he needs another strategy for sure; with his limited defensive abilities (despite his quickness around the court), rallying with Delpo from the back isn't a good idea at all.

Cilic doesn't like great defenders and playaers who have good depth, I also remember it was his main problem against Del Po.
True. Good defenders make him go for too much and pile on the errors. Good returners can also exploit his serve even more.
 
#30 · (Edited)
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

2 questions not especially for Lenders :

- I don't remember watching Blake-Davydenko (7-0 until this year) : I guess Blake disturbed Davydenko from the return and serve (which are very important shots for Blake) ?

- I noticed that Baghdatis has better results against grinders, I tried to wonder why, one reason is that they don't attack his second serve which is a bit weak, I guess, another reason is that Baghdatis likes building points for long, quite like Youzhny, but also he seems to especially like unleashing a ball only in the end of a long rally rather than earlier :lol: : why does he have this habit ? is it like a part of the pleasure for him ? does he need to be exhausted to unleash his best (Monfils is typically like that) ?
 
#33 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

2 questions not especially for Lenders :

- I don't remember watching Blake-Davydenko (7-0 until this year) : I guess Blake disturbed Davydenko from the return and serve (which are very important shots for Blake) ?
Especially the return from matches of the pair that I've watched (at least three, I think, all of which Blake won). Blake is very fond of running around the backhand to thwack forehand returns and it was a very profitable pattern of play against Davydenko. Blake could actually dictate a lot more points from his forehand side against Davydenko than Gonzalez was ever able to (he has a shorter swing which partially explains that). Further, Blake doesn't give up ground on the baseline easily. Like Federer in that sense, he could continue to direct points even when Davydenko would hit deep counters, using the baseline half volley when necessary. Not so sure about the serve (of Blake) being very important. Davydenko could impose on that shot with his return like usual imo, the match-up was more down to the way rallies panned out and Blake's ability to retain control of tempo in rallies in a way Gonzalez couldn't. This is also partially due to his better flat BH (which is especially good against deep shots I think, Blake always showed he could half volley from the baseline very effectively against Nadal's FH as well), this stops Davydenko from gaining too much from his superior BH.

- I noticed that Baghdatis has better results against grinders, I tried to wonder why, one reason is that they don't attack his second serve which is a bit weak, I guess, another reason is that Baghdatis likes building points for long, quite like Youzhny, but also he seems to especially like unleashing a ball only in the end of a long rally rather than earlier :lol: : why does he have this habit ? is it like a part of the pleasure for him ? does he need to be exhausted to unleash his best (Monfils is typically like that) ?
I don't have an answer for that but yes, it's strange. Part and parcel of being the showman type players that Monfils, Baghdatis and (to a lesser extent) Youzhny are. I certainly think it brings pleasure to all three of them, Monfils enjoys being in 'interesting' and 'epic' rallies, perhaps to his detriment.
 
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#37 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Can anyone explain Gasquet 6-0 Simon, with all blowouts? I always try to avoid matches with those two pushers, but this H2H strikes me as very weird, there's bound to be some matchup issue. Two players of roughly the same level (Simon probably a bit better), somewhat similar gamestyles...


Another good example would be:

Del Potro vs Soderling

5-1 Del Potro, with Soderling's only win coming when JMDP was a teenager. Even when Robin was #4 and JMDP was just returning to the tour at the beginning of 2011, two blowout wins for JMDP. This one is easy to explain; Soderling has amazing power off the baseline, Del Potro has even more. He can easily overpower Soderling, forcing him to go for too much to avoid long rallies, which leads to errors. On slow surfaces where he can't finish the points fast, Robin is a sitting duck in this matchup.
 
#40 · (Edited)
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Can anyone explain Gasquet 6-0 Simon, with all blowouts? I always try to avoid matches with those two pushers, but this H2H strikes me as very weird, there's bound to be some matchup issue. Two players of roughly the same level (Simon probably a bit better), somewhat similar gamestyles...
first Simon wasn't in good form or had problems in several of those matches (on the opposite it was Gasquet's case when he lost once to Simon in Sunrise challenger).

secondly the main way to defeat Gasquet is to take him far back, and with his counter-punching style, shots with no spin, sometimes short, it's not at all Simon's style.

Often Simon plays too short against Gasquet.

Besides, a great quality of Gasquet, underrated imo (Gasquet being seen by many ones as a shot-maker, which is not his main way to play), is to be a player using a lot the spin, including the alternance with the slice, and that's the typical way to defeat Simon, Simon is great at counter-punching flat and powerful shots, but he has difficulty to control well spinned shots, especially when they don't have a lot of power and there's an alternance of spins.

If you add that Gasquet has a complete game enough to be able to sustain long rallies, you have the whole set.
 
#44 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Yep Soda can't get the rhythm he likes against JMDP. Del Potro defends a lot better than the other big hitters and with interest, so they have to go for broke all the time.
Yup, it's worse for Soderling than for Tsonga and Berdych because the latter two have more variety, while Soderling's only option is to get into a baseline hitting contest where he will inevitably be slaughtered.

Lenders please explain Tipsarevic-Nishikori (5-0, 10-1 in sets)
They played all their five matches in a very short period of time when Kei was in a slump/returning from injury, so I'd like to see more before calling it a bad matchup. It's a bit like Cilic vs Tipsy imo, things will become more even once Tipsy became a top player/Kei got healthy, a top player.

good thread :yeah:

great read
Thanks :)
 
#45 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Lenders trying way too hard at this, as if everything can be explained in tangible things. Again, he is giving technical aspects way too much credit in several matchups. The mental gain/loss between two players explains much of the lopsided H2Hs here. Not saying there technical aspects of a player's game don't dictacte a H2H, but certainly much should be attributed to mental strength, and not to mention surface variation.
 
#49 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Good points about the Gasquet vs Simon matchup.

Lenders trying way too hard at this, as if everything can be explained in tangible things. Again, he is giving technical aspects way too much credit in several matchups. The mental gain/loss between two players explains much of the lopsided H2Hs here. Not saying there technical aspects of a player's game don't dictacte a H2H, but certainly much should be attributed to mental strength, and not to mention surface variation.
Most things can be explained by technical aspects though. For instance, would you say Federer's mental issues against Nadal are not more important than the matchup issue. If anything, they're a result of it. Federer can't play his normal game vs Rafa, who always makes him uncomfortable on court, and that plays with his head of course.

By the same token, Berdych doesn't have mental issues vs Nadal just because, he has them because Rafa crushed him time and time again even when he (Berdych) was playing well.

Surface variation could be an issue (although surfaces are more homogenized than ever before), but most of the matchups I've analysed are of one player completely owning the other across all surfaces.
 
#48 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Honestly, the Simon-Gasquet match is more mental than anything I think. He's just not very good against other French players. The Simon-Murray match-up is the one where Gilles just has no chance because Murray is essentially a better version of himself plus has more variety. I feel like Gilles has a much better chance of beating the other three of the top four.
 
#51 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

Someone to explain the Fed-Simon matchup to me. There's no reason why Simon should really test Federer.
Would love to hear about this one too. I have some (loose) ideas, but really can't quite put my finger on why Simon causes Federer so many problems, would love someone knowledgeable who watched all their matches (I didn't) to try and explain this.
 
#62 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

The one lopsided match-up I've never been able to really wrap my head around is Ferrer-Gasquet, which rests 8-1 in Ferrer's favor. What more is that most of their score-lines have consisted of Gasquet getting roughly 1 or 2 games per set. I just don't understand what it is that allows Ferrer to not only beat, but route Gasquet so routinely.

There's no complex there as far as I'm aware of, and Ferrer doesn't have a game that should inherently trouble Richard.


From the matches I have seen of the two, I do notice a few interesting trends in place. Firstly, Ferrer, perhaps unexpectedly, goes after the Gasquet backhand. He makes a very deliberate effort to pin him to that side. Congruently, in more recent years, David has assumed the role of the attacker in their dynamics. The closest thing he has to a weapon is that ad court forehand, and he relishes the chance to unleash it on a heavy Gasquet backhand, often up-the-line to exploit Richard's deep backhand positioning. Finally, to that same effect, Ferrer seems to have a field day of making Ritchie look like Duck Jr up at net, which leaves me to believe that he generally has a good read on Gasquet's patterns of play.

All that said, it's remarkable that their matches feel like such foregone conclusions.
 
#63 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

The one lopsided match-up I've never been able to really wrap my head around is Ferrer-Gasquet, which rests 8-1 in Ferrer's favor. What more is that most of their score-lines have consisted of Gasquet getting roughly 1 or 2 games per set. I just don't understand what it is that allows Ferrer to not only beat, but route Gasquet so routinely.

There's no complex there as far as I'm aware of, and Ferrer doesn't have a game that should inherently trouble Richard.
I do believe there is a complex... If you look at Richard's press conference before his latest match against Ferrer, he was talking as if he had lost already, and almost trying to make excuses for it, before even playing the match.
Then again, I may be wrong, but I've always thought Gasquet's problems were almost entirely mental (thus it's not necessarily linked to Ferrer).


Thank you guys for a very interesting thread.

However, I have to admit that I do agree with what Duong pointed out, that I find it difficult to really discuss match-ups in such a clear way, because it kind of ignores the fact that a same player doesn't always play the same.
I mean, for instance, since I watch Ferrer the most I always hear those comments about his "consistency", and what I notice is that people are so convinced he's the embodiement of consistency, that they will interepret everything he does in that light.
For instance, lately, he's been serving a lot of DFs, and every time, you had commentators marvelling at it and going: "that's very unusual he's normally so consistent and accurate blablabla".
Actually, it was not unusual at all, it had been like that for months, maybe because of tiredness, maybe because it's a tactic (trying to force on his serve and hoping the resulting higher number of DFs would be compensated by the gains this tactic would bring?)
So, sometimes, I find it difficult to generalize about a player's game, because so often, I can see that people are doing it with Ferrer, and since I watch him closely I know they're wrong. What they're doing is often placate what they think they know about him, instead of really commenting on what they see.

Still, I found it really interesting to read all this. Even notwithstanding the fact that I probably don't have the ability to do it, I don't have time to watch everyone play, let alone analyze everyone's game in detail, and it's great to see those strange phenomena explained.
 
#65 ·
Re: Worst matchup issues between top (10/20) players

To sum up: Ferrer's heart and genitals are exponentially bigger than Gasquet's.
 
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