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Freezing Wednesday

8K views 103 replies 36 participants last post by  bavaria100 
#1 · (Edited)
M. Cilic @ 1.44
T. Robredo @ 1.58
S. Bolelli @ 2.48
D. Hrbaty @ 2.49

GL
 
#3 ·
W-L 40-23

Pinnacle:

Baghdatis @2,32
Bolelli @2,48
Hrbaty @2,49

Local:

Cilic - Tipsarevic over 39,5 @1,85
Chardy +8,5 @1,85
Baghdatis - Soderling over 39,5 @1,85
 
#15 ·
I don't know how he would be able to return Mardy's bombs...how is OVER games Bilbo?
 
#16 ·
S.Mirza +4.5 over Petrova @ $1.85
Dokic vs Chakvadtaze =3 sets Played @ $2.20
Knapp over Voskoebova @ $2.10
Sugiyama Vs Dechy =3 sets played @ $2.40
Kleybanova 2-0 over Aloro @ $1.70
Hanthucova 2-0 over Johansson @ $1.55

Santoro+2.5 sets over Kohlshreiber @ $1.80 (POD)
GGL +2.5 sets over Safin @ $1.80
Baghdatis over Soderling @ $2.20
Tipsarevic+2.5 sets over Cilic @ $1.43
Tipsarevic over Cilic @ $2.80
Troiki+2.5 sets over Robredo @ $1.43
Ferrer vs Hrbaty over 38.5 games @ $1.90

PHM & RODDICK & DJOKOVIC & POTRO & FEDERER & NALBANDIAN & IVANOVIC & HANTHUCOVA & SAFINA & WOZNIAKI OVER DELIC/MALISSE/CHARDY/MAYER/KOROLEV/LU/BRIANTI/JOHANSSON/MAKAROVA/PASCUAL @ $2.80

GL
 
#21 ·
nice calls Ivan, I'm changing my view in Soda-Bagga match: earlier I was on Soda, then I remembered the swede hates windy conditions...when the match is scheduled?
 
#19 ·
4 sets without a single break to Potato's serve. it's enough for me.
Muller lefty. maybe some fight...3-1 s.betting for me is possible
 
#20 ·
Awful value tonight IMO:

Only a small bet tonight:

2009 MTF Record 18-12 (+15.88 units)

Klein over Warinka @ 10 1 unit
 
#24 ·
Bolelli may be able to take a set but Fish is very good on hardcourts when he is 100percent and i know Bilbo said Bolelli is horrible on hard i wouldnt go that far but for me he hasent proved he is great so why should he now!

I like pretty much all your plays Ivan- may tail you on a few :yeah:
 
#33 ·
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#94 ·
Turned out to be a pretty good day in the end was a nightmare start but the late wins of Baggy and Dokic 2 dogs saved the day

Baggy over Soderling 6/5 WIN

Hrbaty over Ferrer 6/4 LOSS

Knapp over Voskoboeva 10/11 LOSS

Safarova over Erakovic 2/5 WIN

Dokic over Chakky 13/8 WIN
 
#39 ·
Pironkova tb Bartoli 4/10 @ 2.75 ( 888 Sports )
Best WTA bet by far if you ask me. Bartoli is a horrible player to play and this is where her strength lies. She adjusts well to opponents and always tries to break them down. She also has many downswings however and always suffer in the hot and humid Australian conditions. Her recent Brisbane final doesn't say much looking at who she has beaten and the way she did it. Pironkova looked very good in her first round and is a nice attacking player who will be able to take advantage of the weak Bartoli serve, especially the second one. Bartoli leads the h2h 2-0 but Pironkova should have won the last encounter, getting a set and break lead. Much closer than the odds suggest.

Tipsarevic tb Cilic 4/10 @ 3/11 and 4/10 Tipsarevic +1.5 set @ 2.04 ( 10bet and 188bet )
Tipsy had his regular poor display as a huge fav and this isn't even strange anymore. Bookies still reacted a lot to this if you ask me but this match is something different. Both the Croats and the Serbians have massive support in melbourne and with the big tension always surrounding this it's almost a Davis Cup-like athmosphere I expect. Tipsy is at his best during the big matches and this is one of them. He is the better player, looking at his package of strokes and pure quality but Cilic has the mental edge. If tennis prevails here the Serbian should take the match. He should be able to dictate rallies when they go to the backhand side and has has the stuff to take advantage of the weaker second serve of Cilic. The +1.5 set is a bet I like a lot as well so it's somewhat of a cover in case it goes to 5 as well. Cilic won their only encounter 2 weeks ago in India with 6-4 0-6 and 6-4 and another tight affair is expected. No way Cilic should be this low.

Hrbaty tb Ferrer 4/10 @ 2.6 ( Betfair (netto of fees) )
Already 7 encounters between these guys with Ferrer leading 4-3 with 3 gravel matches in there as well. The last encounter was in 2006 so I won't value this too much though. Hrbaty seems reborn. He showed class to overcome Isner relatively easily and beating a player of his type always shows that confidence and focus are on. He was great at the Hopman Cup and from what I've heard he was by far the best qualifier as well here. Ferrer on the other hand is nothing of what he was 2 years ago. The quick and agile player who never made UE's turned into a hot or cold player with way too many swings in his play and less quick as well, which Gremelmayr proved with his many dropshots. 68UE against the German is simply incredible, especially for Ferrer and the Dom should take full advantage of this. What remains without Ferrer's previous strong points is just a mediocre player without any real weapons and a poor serve.

Also: Berdych+Djokovic+Mathieu+Nalbandian+Müller 6/10 @ 2.03 ( Gamebookers )
 
#42 ·
Baghdatis over Soderling

This is a grand slam which means Soderling is likely to play 50% lower than his usual level while Baggy will play 50% above. The courts might not be fast enough for the Toad's liking and he's the one most likely to lose patience in the longer rallies. There has also been a bit of wind swirling about the past few days and if that continues it will be to Baggy's advantage.

4u 2.4

Hrbaty over Ferrer

The Slovak warrior will present Ferrer with a lot of problems in this match up. Ferrer isn't as consistent from the baseline as he used to be and against a solid defender is likely to come up with a lot of errors. Hrbaty's confidence is sky-high right now. He has won 4 matches here, won the hopman cup and successfully proposed to his old lady all in the last few weeks.

3.5u 2.6

very tough to find the dogs in slams.
 
#100 ·
Some more shit from me:

Cilic over Tipsarevic

Not much value here I have to be honest and it should be a tough battle but Tipsy can struggle in the heat and I'm not sure how much he'll have left in the tank. Cilic is turning into a very solid player in slams and I see him going deep here

5u 1.48

Mugtiples:

Kohli x Cilic x PHM

Not sure about this one but I've played it now. All 3 very capable of losing but Kohli should have too much power for Santoro while Delic is very lucky to be here scraping past part-timer Dent having been trounced by Mayer

1.22 X 1.4 x 1.22
3u

Muller x Roddick x Berdych x Djokovic x Stan


5.5u pays about 1.8
Muller -4.5 1.67

I'm the worst hc punter in the world so fade me.

3u
W +5.6
L -3.5
W +2.28
L -3.0
W + 4.2
W +2.01

+7.59

+11.29 this week (-1.5 season)

slowly undoing the damage of last week. might include the extra 2.5u I should have but for posting an incorrect stake, beg for forgiveness and promise it won't happen again. This is the only place I'm keeping a record so it'd be more accurate for my own benefit and save me having to add it on to every post in my head all season
 
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