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The Federer Decline Thread

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#1 ·
An interesting piece from Tom Perotta

Relax Federer faithful, it's only March

by Tom Perotta
Special to ESPN.com


No, dear fans of Roger Federer, the sky isn't falling. The No. 1 ranking is not in jeopardy just yet. It isn't time for your man to do something drastic, like hiring Brad Gilbert as a coach, shaving his head or asking Wilson to design him a new racket or some new strings. He doesn't need any encouragement from Tiger Woods, who has been tightening his grip on the title of "most dominant athlete in the world." He doesn't need to change his technique or his strategy or his training methods. One loss to Andy Murray at a small tournament in Federer's de facto home of Dubai doesn't doom a career.

Still worried? That's reasonable enough. Federer looked flat in Australia, understandable considering the food poisoning he had before the tournament began. It was also recently revealed the Swiss had mononucleosis -- unbeknownst to him at the time -- Down Under. However, before he played Murray, he said he was fit and eager to play. He seemed ready to make a statement, that statement being, "I'm Roger Federer, and you are not." He had to have been confident despite not playing in five weeks, since he had won in Dubai in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007 -- and lost in the final in 2006.

This would be his first appearance since losing to Novak Djokovic, the man most people peg as the next No. 1 player in the world (the confident Djokovic is no doubt one of those people). It was the Swiss' first chance to remind his rivals who runs the tour. Instead, Murray was only reminded that Federer's forehand occasionally disappears for games at a time.

Perhaps you're not worried about the Murray match, but something else? You're concerned that Federer has a long year ahead of him. He's scheduled to play more tournaments than usual, plus the Olympic Games in Beijing. He also has more good players to contend with than at any other point in his career. In four years as the No. 1 player in the world, Federer hasn't had to overcome a lot of obstacles at one time. He's had no season-ending injuries, no personal tragedies and no consistent threats on the tour other than Rafael Nadal on clay and, the past two years, Nadal at Wimbledon.

In the next two years, he'll face adversity, in the form of Djokovic, Nadal, Murray and maybe, just maybe, a player like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, wherever he goes. He'll have to worry more about injury as he ages. He'll have to worry about losing motivation or confidence if he loses a few more matches. He'll have to deal with the pressure of being two major titles away from Pete Sampras' record of 14 -- so close, but still quite far away considering how abruptly a dominant tennis career can end (a 25-year-old John McEnroe won two majors in 1984 but couldn't win another one in his final eight years on the tour).

Federer has a lot on his mind, and a lot left to accomplish, but there's no cause for worry. In tennis, confidence comes and goes quickly. Remember how things looked in November? Federer dominated his last three matches at the Masters Cup and Djokovic ended the year with five consecutive losses and seemed destined for a slump in 2008.

Andy Murray wasted no time derailing Roger Federer's hopes of getting back on track in Dubai.
A little more than three months later, Djokovic is the Australian Open champion and taken seriously when he makes absurd comments, like: "Considering the results this year, I expected Murray to win." No doubt, Murray was going to have a chance, but Djokovic expected Murray to win? Really? What results was he looking at? Couldn't have been that first-round loss Murray suffered at the Australian Open to Tsonga. Maybe it was his first-round loss to Robin Haase, ranked No. 94 in the world, in Rotterdam a few weeks ago. A convincing performance indeed.

There was a lot to dislike about the way Federer played against Murray. He returned terribly (he didn't win a single point against Murray's first serve in the third set, 0-for-14) and he sprayed a lot of forehands. He was aced 10 times -- a credit to Murray but rare against Federer (Andy Roddick usually won't ace Federer that often in three sets).

Still, there was a lot to like, too. Federer frequently attacked the net, as he did in Shanghai last year. He served well in the first and third sets. He seemed to move well, which wasn't the case by the end of the Australian Open. Why doubt that he'll return to the form he had just a few months ago? He's had cold streaks before and come out of them just fine. Remember Guillermo Canas and Filippo Volandri? Canas beat Federer twice last year and Volandri beat him once. By the end of 2007, did those losses mean anything at all?

While the early loss in Dubai deprived Federer of a few useful warm-up matches leading up to Indian Wells, it might also help him. He can now fly to the United States sooner than he might have planned for the Sampras exhibition next week. Last year, Federer lost his first match at Indian Wells, in the second round, after winning it the previous three seasons. He stands to gain a lot of ranking points if he does well. He could gain a few more in Miami, where he lost in the fourth round. If he wins both tournaments and performs well at Estoril, Portugal, where he didn't play last year, he'll have a cushion over Nadal in the rankings that the Spaniard won't be able to top without a Federer flop at Roland Garros or Wimbledon, or a sensational hard-court season from Nadal (which has yet to happen). Djokovic has a lot of points to defend in the coming weeks, too, and he's still 1,300 points behind Federer.

If Sampras double-bagels Federer at their exhibition Monday night, maybe then Federer fans will have something to worry about. Otherwise, remember that it's only March. You might end up remembering this season as the best of Federer's career.

Tom Perrotta is a senior editor at Tennis Magazine.
 
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#1,202 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

his best chances remain at Wimbledon.
 
#1,206 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

Plus if Nadal remains injured then it seems Rog can handle Djoker on grass, Murray would be the main threat but he is a erratic headcase along with the ballbashing trio of Tsonga, Berdych and Del Po (who is average on grass imo, look at ferrer's demolition of him). I just think Roger was poor throughout the latter stages of the Olympics for some reason, making his opponents look better than they actually played.
 
#1,207 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

His ranking proves how much he declines. He is world n°1.
 
#1,208 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

His ranking proves how much he declines. He is world n°1.
yep, 1GS, 3MS, 1ATP500, Olympic Silver, two GS SF, what a big decline this is :rolleyes:
 
#1,216 ·
#1,210 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

What does it say that this thread was started in March 2008, 4.5 years ago and yet he is now #1? Hardly anyone, even his diehard fans, back then would have put good money on him being #1 in September 2012, which speaks to RF as the GOAT.

Never under-estimate the comeback power of Roger Federer.

:worship:.:worship:.:worship:
 
#1,213 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

He's proven people wrong so many times and yet fools still line up and ask for it once again!! I don't know if this guy's through or not but his history demonstrates a resounding no. He lost a heartbreaker here last year and look what happened.
 
#1,215 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

Fed was counted out in 2008, he was counted out in 2009, in 2010 and in 2011. Funnily enough, he returned every time. Same with Nadal.Never count out those guys, they have far too much talent for that (especially Roger).
 
#1,218 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

i'd sign up for another season like this, next year

awesome year!

and Indoor season still to come
 
#1,221 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

If he wouldn't have won Wimbledon this year, Federer would have received much criticism for a second year without a slam. But now I think that Federer has proven his critics wrong with winning Wimbledon and returning to nr. 1 this year. I personally thought already that he would win another major, but not that he would return to nr. 1.

I think he potentially can win 1 or 2 more slams the coming years. Must likely at Wimbledon. Because at grass he looks great. He has probably the best service of the big 4.

But if I hear him say that he likes to continue to the 2016 olympics, that's a bit far. He is not a robot. There comes a day that he will really start to decline. Especially in best of 5 (grand slam) matches. It will become harder and harder to compete with Djokovic, Nadal and Murray.
 
#1,222 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

Any year you win a slam is a good year.
 
#1,223 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

I think it was more important for Federer himself to pass Sampras # weeks at nr1 than it was to increase his slam count. Missing out on that record with like 2 weeks margin surely bothered Roger A LOT and kept him going for nr1. Now with Nadals problems and Djokovic "protecting him" he probably feels safer about his slam count too.

Sadly I think him taking Sampras record and Nadals problems has a negative effect on Rogers motivation, that could speed up his decline
 
#1,225 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

A fit Nadal will beat Roget at Wimbledon IMO, every year Feds level falls a bit, Murray is catching up on grass also. Plus of course there is Berdych and co. Not to mention Rosol. However, if Nadal is injured then Fed is 1st/2nd fave at all slams
 
#1,226 · (Edited)
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

Originally Posted by Aloevera

I think Federer is truly disappointed losing against Berd, because he comes here as the favorite and No. 1 player, so he wants to win a slam with that status, NOT as an "opportunist".
He won 7 times at Wimbledon.:wavey:

An opportunist would be someone who gets lucky and wins just once there. A fluke. Never to reach the final again and who won because he avoided the best player on grass.

IF Nadal were to lose in the QF of RG in 2013(to a ballbasher) but then won RG in 2014(avoiding Djokovic and ballbashers), would he be considered an opportunist? Of course not. You don't fluke a slam 7 or 8 times.
 
#1,227 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

He won 7 times at Wimbledon.:wavey:

An opportunist would be someone who gets lucky and wins just once there. A fluke. Never to reach the final again and who won because he avoided the best player on grass.

IF Nadal were to lose in the QF of RG in 2013(to a ballbasher) but then won RG in 2014(avoiding Djokovic and ballbashers), would he be considered an opportunist? Of course not. You don't fluke a slam 7 or 8 times.
I don't mean to say that it would be a mere fluke if he wins a slam these days. Of course he still has to create the opportunity himself. But it's getting harder because he's not as dominant as before where he didn't need to depend much on opportunities unexpectedly arisen in favor of him to win a slam, hence why he's able to win so many times.
 
#1,229 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

He's declining since 2007, nothing new here. Simply, he was so high when his fall began, he's still competitive despite struggling against big hitters and losing his power, reactivity, stamina and consistency.
 
#1,230 ·
Re: The Federer Decline Thread (Is he done, will he win another Slam)

everybody knows it will be very hard to get #18. it was already a milestone he achieved #17 and the #1-record at wimby. so there's no reason for panic again. he should rest up and prepare for the indoors season. next try at the ao 2013, simple as that :)
 
#1,234 ·
When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

For me it`s easier with his backhand. Now looks like Fed always had this swing to be his main weakness, but till 2008 I never was scared every time he played backhand. But then... I think it had a lot to do with his loss to Nadal at Wimbledon. Not like before he hit the ball without EU and later couldn`t find a court, but something changed at least in my sensation. Cincy, Toronto, OG, even victory at US - backhand always gave a lot to think about. Hovewer Fed`s forehand remained to destroy opponents from any position.

But at some moment Fed lost it too. I mean he still has some great stretches with different kinds of shots from "open" racquet, but misses started to increase and the feeling about inevitable punishment for player who dared to hit the ball to Federer`s strong hand disappeared.

I was trying to remember my impressions, when I felt it happening the first time, but just can`t. Surely, the most important reason here is declining in speed. A bit worse footwork and so on. Such things always consist of many factors.

Anyone?
 
#1,249 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

For me it`s easier with his backhand. Now looks like Fed always had this swing to be his main weakness, but till 2008 I never was scared every time he played backhand. But then... I think it had a lot to do with his loss to Nadal at Wimbledon. Not like before he hit the ball without EU and later couldn`t find a court, but something changed at least in my sensation. Cincy, Toronto, OG, even victory at US - backhand always gave a lot to think about. Hovewer Fed`s forehand remained to destroy opponents from any position.

But at some moment Fed lost it too. I mean he still has some great stretches with different kinds of shots from "open" racquet, but misses started to increase and the feeling about inevitable punishment for player who dared to hit the ball to Federer`s strong hand disappeared.

I was trying to remember my impressions, when I felt it happening the first time, but just can`t. Surely, the most important reason here is declining in speed. A bit worse footwork and so on. Such things always consist of many factors.

Anyone?
Winner of Wimbledon, 6 titles so far in 2012, and #1 in the world with a declined fh :worship:
 
#1,235 ·
Re: When did Federer lose his prime forehand?

Federer is still winning slams, playing semis and finals against younger, faster, stronger players.

He's not doing it with his BH slice and will only.

Fed's FH is right there still. You just got confused by the scene, the oponent and the period.

And mainly the oponent. Watch him against Cilic and you don't get any of these mixed feelings.

Watch him winning Wimbie with all the best guys around, etc.

Fed is losing 3 things only - 1. Highest motivation at non slams. 2. His footwork (which increases his semi forced errors and makes him play more defensive BH slices) And last but not least and the part i'm most concerned about - his serve.

I fear his back problems have become irrevirsible and he's doing what he can with the pain constantly there.

You can't lose your speed of serve and coordination just like that, it doesn't take much stamina, it's you and the ball.

And we saw him today trying at times to hit a strong first serve to get a free point and it was going miles away, like 2 meters out.

At this moment he's just serving a strong second serve for his first and a weak second serve as second, which is the prime of his problems imho.

The back is probably why he said he needed longer rest and this kind of pain goes almost fully away only from resting, then it's fully back after one tournament.

That's where all the problems come from.

If Cilic and the type can't do much against a 190kph sliced first serve, being pretty much Roger's maximum atm, it is hardly an issue for the better players.

I fear that during next season Fed's back will force him to retire, maybe after Wimby.

Hopefully his docs find a way to overcome this problem, but often this kind of problem is irrevirsible except with surgery, so i fear it might be the case with Roger.

Anyways, the guy would have retired one year ago, he would still be the best who ever played the game for me, so now with N17 and the OG silver he's there big time already.
 
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