With today's victory, Nole is now 2'230 points behind the King of Clay.
Rafael Nadal - 13130
Novak Djokovic - 10900
Both can only gain at Miami from early rounds, so it could be a deciding tournament, considering Novak just won IW and Nadal is playing really, really bad.
After Miami, Novak only have to defend Montecarlo and then it really gets interesting for him:
Madrid > R1
Rome > SF
French Open > SF
While Rafa defends every single tournament except a win in Montecarlo.
Wimbledon will be another deciding tournament.
But even if Rafa gain massive points over Novak there, then again he defends every single tournament in the USA, including a Slam.
So it could be a 50-50 from Wimbledon until the USO.
Novak YE No.1, Rafa will be best on clay again, but won´t be as good in 2nd half of the year, last year he overachieved - he will never again winn Canada-Cinci-USO combo. Novak is best bet for No.1, his level is not great, but it´s not like Rafa is great himself, others are out of question, Roger might be playing well but he won´t play so much, he won´t fight for No.1 for sure, Andy is joke this year, Stan won 1 tournament than hype - but he will be happy to end top 5 - but with this competition very doable, Ferrer no, Berdych no, Delpo - injured all the time - hell no.
Novak YE No.1, Rafa will be best on clay again, but won´t be as good in 2nd half of the year, last year he overachieved - he will never again winn Canada-Cinci-USO combo. Novak is best bet for No.1, his level is not great, but it´s not like Rafa is great himself, others are out of question, Roger might be playing well but he won´t play so much, he won´t fight for No.1 for sure, Andy is joke this year, Stan won 1 tournament than hype - but he will be happy to end top 5 - but with this competition very doable, Ferrer no, Berdych no, Delpo - injured all the time - hell no.
Miami is huge, then the clay season we more or less know whats going to happen. Then Wimbledon is huge, and USO series is huge. Nadal can come close to losing #1 in clay, then get a little ground from Djokovic in Wimbledon, then lose it for real after USO back to Djokovic, then Djokovic is defending multiple title post USO and Nadal is defending SF's and F's :shrug: Could come down to the last week.
Wimbledon will be another deciding tournament.
But even if Rafa gain massive points over Novak there, then again he defends every single tournament in the USA, including a Slam.
So it could be a 50-50 from Wimbledon until the USO.
Djokovic winning IW felt like a miracle. Unless this win springboards his confidence, he's still got a lot of work to do to get to #1 (ace/DF ratio for instance). Nadal's so called "poor" level of play this year has been typically exaggerated by mtf.
Djokovic winning IW felt like a miracle. Unless this win springboards his confidence, he's still got a lot of work to do to get to #1 (ace/DF ratio for instance). Nadal's so called "poor" level of play this year has been typically exaggerated by mtf.
Exactly. So far this year Nadal has been looking much better than Djokovic. Nadal needs to do well in the clay season though, which I'm confidant he will, to stay at #1.
Well TBH, If Roig is right and Rafa was anxious in Rio and IW, I didn't see any reson to think he will be less anxious in Miami on a more favourable ground and having seen Nole and Fed level today.
It appeared that Rafa is better when chasing #1 spot than defending it, but Future can be different than History.
Then to think more of the rest of the season, it is difficult to predict anything.
Major problem could be draws. I mean if there is a player as hot as Wawrinka in AO with a low seed, Rafa or Nole could loose a lot of points by drawing him in the early round.
It is not that fair but it is how tennis is.
Federer with a "relatively" low ranking could also be a problem on fast court.
CLAY SWING
Rafa was about to perfection on clay last year but it is more his ground and Nole will have to fight to gain points over him there.
NADAL 5100 pts can earn 600 with "clay slam"
NOLE 1800 pts can earn 1600 with runner up clay slam
GRASS SWING
Both can loose early with a bad draw.
NADAL 20 pts could win something like 1000 pts
NOLE 1200 pts could loose something like 500 pts
US FALL SWING
Rafa was perfect in North American Fall Swing and there will be a key point because it is said to be more Nole's ground.
NADAL a lot to loose out of 4000 points
NOLE 2160 points could earn some points but not that much.
END OF THE SEASON
Nole was perfect after USO and he won't be able to defend everything but it is more Nole's ground and Rafa will have fight to gain points over him there.
NOLE a lot to loose out of 4000 points
NADAL around 2500 points could earn some points but that part of the year never favoured him.
Miami is very important. If Rafa will reach F or Nole won't win the title, Rafa will be most likely no.1 seed at RG.
Guys, you should realize that "defending points" is irrelevant when talking about YE no.1. It's all about gained points in that current year.
I don't think Rafa has a chance to end this year as no.1. He already mentioned it's no longer a goal for him. But Nole doesn't seem to be invincible as once was. We will see.
Why are the OP and many others looking at the rolling 52 week ranking points for this topic? For YE#1 defending tournaments doesn't enter the picture. 52 week ranking is only relevant for seeding in this case.
However!
Following the evolution of the ATP Ranking over the year will inevitably shift the focus on those players who are at the top right now (Nole and Rafa), assuming that they will perform in a similar way this year. People will calculate how many points they can lose or gain but usually forget that the lower ranked players could actually gain even more points (which would of course in part be needed to close the gap).
On the other hand we can have a look at the RACE which only takes into account points which are already counted towards the YE#1 ranking.
This is in my opinion a much better approach as those points can't be lost anymore (becoming more and more relevant as the year progresses). Of course we can assume that the actual TOP 2/4/8 players will eventually take in the same positions in the race but there is no guarantee for it. That's why the RACE serves as a better indicator towards the YE#1 than the actual Rankings. At the latest after Madrid/Rome we'll have a good idea about this year's level of the top contenders, depicted in the Race rankings.
Still, every player has the same prospect at the beginning of every upcoming tournament and with most of the ranking points still to be scattered this year we might still have some unforseen uprises. This turns our predictions for the YE#1 spot even more into wild guesses, expecially at this early point of the year.
To eye only Nadal and Djokovic is for sure myopic, despite their performances in 2013.
Miami and Wimbledon will decide it for Rafa-- he needs at least 2000 pts out of both...Although, he said ranking and #1 is not a priority in 2014, winning titles will eventually keeps him in it whether he likes it or not..Still, Djokovic should be favorite here-- just by limiting Nadal's damage on clay (Rome/Madrid)and getting his points on HC in NA summer (Toronto/Cincy), basically where he lost the top ranking in 2013, he will get it back sooner and probably carry it to the end of the season....
Miami and Wimbledon will decide it for Rafa-- he needs at least 2000 pts out of both...Although, he said ranking and #1 is not a priority in 2014, winning titles will eventually keeps him in it whether he likes it or not..Still, Djokovic should be favorite here-- just by limiting Nadal's damage on clay (Rome/Madrid)and getting his points on HC in NA summer (Toronto/Cincy), basically where he lost the top ranking in 2013, he will get it back sooner and probably carry it to the end of the season....
I picked Nadal in the off-season to end the year #1, so I'm going to stick with it..I think it will be the 4th(first b2b) and last time he finishes the year at the top of the ranking..But it will be bloody nail-baiter with Djokovic..
Can actually someone post link for odds? i can´t find them anywhere, i would like to see if Nole is favorit by bookies, last year i remember he was favorit over Nadal long period of time, i think Nadal became favorit just after his USO win to end YE No.1 2013
I picked Nadal in the off-season to end the year #1, so I'm going to stick with it..I think it will be the 4th(first b2b) and last time he finishes the year at the top of the ranking..But it will be bloody nail-baiter with Djokovic..
Either Djokovic or Nadal will be YE #1. Between them its really hard to say at this point (because both of them have been really hot and cold) but there is nobody else besides those two who is even close in ranking points.
Even though Rafa isn't in his best form, I still see him winning a 9th RG title this year and I have to imagine he'll pick up at least some points at Wimbledon (2nd round or worse 3 years in a row seems highly improbable).
But Rafa has to defend practically the entire US Open series, up to an including the US Open itself. I have a really hard time seeing that happening, and with Djokovic less than 3000 points out, I can see him taking the #1 from Nadal, at least for a time.
Why are the OP and many others looking at the rolling 52 week ranking points for this topic? For YE#1 defending tournaments doesn't enter the picture. 52 week ranking is only relevant for seeding in this case.
Why are the OP and many others looking at the rolling 52 week ranking points for this topic? For YE#1 defending tournaments doesn't enter the picture. 52 week ranking is only relevant for seeding in this case.
At this moments both Rafa and Nole are 5000 points ahead of others.
Will be able to change the plot if someone else makes a breakthrough.
5 STEPS (or rather 5 acts like in theater)
At the start of the plot Rafa is 2200 points ahead.
ACT I MIAMI slow hard court but low bounce. 1000 points to win, no significant possible loss.
Nole is said to be more successfull here but it was before his opponents realized a good slice can bother him.
ACT II : CLAY SWING differences in clay (Monte Carlo if rainy or Rome are lower bounce)
5500 points to win (500 less for Nole because of Barcelona) about 1500 points to loose for Nole, 5100 for Rafa.
Nole was successfull in IW with a clay like bounce but Rafa is the King here.
With a clay slam Rafa can win 400
With a runner up slam Nole can win 1500.
Rafa has to avoid any defeat to Nole in MC or Roma because those are crucial points in The Defense.
ACT III : THE CHAMPIONSHIPS 2000 points to win. Nole 1200 points to loose
None are grass specialists and they can loose to a lot of players on first week here.
Drawing is crucial.
On second week, ground is better for both of them.
ACT IV : US HC SWING 4000 points to win. Rafa 4000 points to loose. Nole 2200 points to loose.
Rafa's big steal in 2013 with a swing slam when he is said not to be the better HC player.
Murray and above all Fed and Wawa can play a big role here and drawing will be crucial.
Probably dificult for Rafa to defend everything
ACT V : YEAR END about 4000 points to win Nole 4000 points to loose Rafa about 2000
The same analysis like in Act IV but with a reverse angle
Only difference is apparently Nole has more weapons on Act IV than Rafa on indoor court Act V but we saw last year Rafa doing pretty well in WTF.
But wo will be fresher at that time of the year ?
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