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Of the contenders who is the LEAST likely to win Shangai?

2K views 55 replies 47 participants last post by  VolandriFan 
#1 ·
We all know who the favorite is. We could also probably guess the other leading contenders to win the TMC.

So I thought it would be a fun exercise BEFORE the groups were announced to think which player would be the least likely to win (that is if you had to put money down on one player NOT to win, you would pick that player). This would be based on overall ability, form, and matchups given the way seeds are grouped.

Obviously it wouldn't be Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic. Looking at the rest:

-Roddick: It's hard to imagine him beating Federer, Nadal or Djokovic. But with his serve and if he gets Kolya instead of Nole in his group, he does have a very, very small shot.

-Ferrer: He probably couldn't beat Federer, but he could trouble an off Nole or Nadal and no one else really appears daunting for him (unless Gonzo or Kolya catches fire). If someone else took out Federer theoretically he could win.

-Gonzalez: Yes he has been terrible but if he gets hot only Federer could stop him out of this group (much like Blake last year); if someone else (i.e. Nole/Nadal) beats Federer he could win.

-Gasquet: He could potentially get a terrific RR group with Nadal, Roddick, and Davydenko. He has the game to beat all three (maybe not the mind) and you could see him (in a fantasy world) holding up the trophy.

So the answer is Kolya, his form has been terrible, he struggles against the world's best and there are NO good groupings for him. He gets Federer/Nadal (neither of whom he has the mentality to beat), Roddick (terrible matchup) or Ferrer (who could frustrate him), and then either Gonzo or Gasquet, both of whom in his current state you would favor.

I just can't see Davydenko winning this tournament, no way in hell. His easiest ride would be Ferrer, Gasquet, Nadal followed by Nole and Gonzo. That's not that easy for him. Don't mean to dump on the guy when he's down.
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#2 ·
I dont see any of the players outside of the top 3 lifting the trophy
 
#11 ·
Whoever gave Nalbandian a chance, when he beat Federer to win the Masters Cup. You do have a good point though. Favourites have to be Fed, Nadal & Djoko.
 
#6 ·
I'd say Gasquet. He just seems too passive to me. Whenever he's faced with big names, he sort of crawles into his shell, which is a real pity.
Something's not clicking inside that boy's head.:shrug:
 
#10 ·
Baptism of fire for Gasquet. His first Masters Cup, so he knows he won't be able to run from the top players anymore. I have absolutely no idea how he will perform. I'm not optimistic for semis, but I'm hoping he lands in Roddick's group, who seems to be under the weather lately, and channels the ghost of Wimbledon, so he can get himself at least a win.

Based on form, I would not be surprised to see Gonzalez go 0-3.
 
#12 ·
Federer is the favorite.
Next are Nadal and Djokovic.
Then Ferrer.
I frankly don't see the other 4 as contenders not even for the semifinals :p :rolls:
 
#16 ·
Yes, thank you for reading the title :)

I thought about Gonzalez but you have to look at the pairings and matchups and Gonzalez could end up with Nadal, Ferrer, and Davydenko, 2 of whom he could blow off the court if playing well and 1 who is just as big a mess (if not more of a mess) as Gonzo is right now.
 
#20 ·
Gonzo's killer slice will trouble the clowns at the TMC for sure.
 
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#28 ·
I'd say Gasquet, because I think Davydenko will be able to pull some form together in Shanghai. However if he can't, then Davydenko would be the least likely.
 
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