We all know who the favorite is. We could also probably guess the other leading contenders to win the TMC.
So I thought it would be a fun exercise BEFORE the groups were announced to think which player would be the least likely to win (that is if you had to put money down on one player NOT to win, you would pick that player). This would be based on overall ability, form, and matchups given the way seeds are grouped.
Obviously it wouldn't be Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic. Looking at the rest:
-Roddick: It's hard to imagine him beating Federer, Nadal or Djokovic. But with his serve and if he gets Kolya instead of Nole in his group, he does have a very, very small shot.
-Ferrer: He probably couldn't beat Federer, but he could trouble an off Nole or Nadal and no one else really appears daunting for him (unless Gonzo or Kolya catches fire). If someone else took out Federer theoretically he could win.
-Gonzalez: Yes he has been terrible but if he gets hot only Federer could stop him out of this group (much like Blake last year); if someone else (i.e. Nole/Nadal) beats Federer he could win.
-Gasquet: He could potentially get a terrific RR group with Nadal, Roddick, and Davydenko. He has the game to beat all three (maybe not the mind) and you could see him (in a fantasy world) holding up the trophy.
So the answer is Kolya, his form has been terrible, he struggles against the world's best and there are NO good groupings for him. He gets Federer/Nadal (neither of whom he has the mentality to beat), Roddick (terrible matchup) or Ferrer (who could frustrate him), and then either Gonzo or Gasquet, both of whom in his current state you would favor.
I just can't see Davydenko winning this tournament, no way in hell. His easiest ride would be Ferrer, Gasquet, Nadal followed by Nole and Gonzo. That's not that easy for him. Don't mean to dump on the guy when he's down.
-
So I thought it would be a fun exercise BEFORE the groups were announced to think which player would be the least likely to win (that is if you had to put money down on one player NOT to win, you would pick that player). This would be based on overall ability, form, and matchups given the way seeds are grouped.
Obviously it wouldn't be Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic. Looking at the rest:
-Roddick: It's hard to imagine him beating Federer, Nadal or Djokovic. But with his serve and if he gets Kolya instead of Nole in his group, he does have a very, very small shot.
-Ferrer: He probably couldn't beat Federer, but he could trouble an off Nole or Nadal and no one else really appears daunting for him (unless Gonzo or Kolya catches fire). If someone else took out Federer theoretically he could win.
-Gonzalez: Yes he has been terrible but if he gets hot only Federer could stop him out of this group (much like Blake last year); if someone else (i.e. Nole/Nadal) beats Federer he could win.
-Gasquet: He could potentially get a terrific RR group with Nadal, Roddick, and Davydenko. He has the game to beat all three (maybe not the mind) and you could see him (in a fantasy world) holding up the trophy.
So the answer is Kolya, his form has been terrible, he struggles against the world's best and there are NO good groupings for him. He gets Federer/Nadal (neither of whom he has the mentality to beat), Roddick (terrible matchup) or Ferrer (who could frustrate him), and then either Gonzo or Gasquet, both of whom in his current state you would favor.
I just can't see Davydenko winning this tournament, no way in hell. His easiest ride would be Ferrer, Gasquet, Nadal followed by Nole and Gonzo. That's not that easy for him. Don't mean to dump on the guy when he's down.
-