What is the biggest upset or most surprising result from 2000-2010?
For me it is when Guillermo Canas beat Roger Federer in Indian Wells 2007 and then AGAIN just a few days later in Miami. I could have bet my left arm that Federer was gonna win that second match.
Of course this is a huge upset. No doubt it is a top-10. Yes, Nadal was unbeaten and a monster at Roland Garros, but it was still two top-10-players against eachother.
But Canas, who is not a great player, beating world number one Federer TWICE is on hardcourt in Masters tournaments is much sicker in my opinion. Ok, he played the match of his life against a poor Federer in IW, but then he won AGAIN in Miami. Federer must have been totally focused that match and looking for revenge. That second Canas win is therefore SICK.
If Söderling would have won RG-final this year against Nadal I might have said that that is the biggest upset ever. But we all knew that Nadal was gonna win that time, as we all knew Federer was gonna beat Canas that second time....
Canas d. Federer Indian Wells @36.0
Soderling d. Nadal RG @28.5
Murray d. Federer Cinci (2006) @25.0
Simon d. Federer Canada (2008) @21.0
Troicki d. Djokovic Umag (2007) @21.0
Soderling over Nadal at RG is for me probably the major upset. Falla over Federer at Wimbledon would have been a bigger shock but he wasn't able to pull it off. Bastl over Sampras was a big upset too - I would say on par with Canas beating Federer twice in a row at Indian Wells and Miami.
the only two that really come to mind were Soderling over Nadal at RG and Bastl over Sampras at Wimbledon. Upsets in 3 set MS matches IMO would have to really be something special to ever be the "biggest" upset, when accounting for historical significance and the pressure on the players and so on. there's bound to be some other big upsets in slams that I'm forgetting about though, particularly from the first half of the decade
Paul-Henri Mathieu Andy Roddick Rogers Cup - Montreal 09/08/2005 First Hard 7-5 6-3 18
Filippo Volandri Roger Federer Campionati Internazionali D'Italia - Rome 10/05/2007 Third Clay 6-2 6-4 16.5
Edouard Roger-Vasselin Juan Martin Del Potro AIG Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo 05/10/2009 First Hard 6-4 6-4 16
Julien Benneteau Roger Federer BNP Paribas Masters - Paris 11/11/2009 Second I.hard 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4 16
Aisam Qureshi Richard Gasquet Gerry Weber Open - Halle 12/06/2007 First Grass 7-6(8) 6-4 15.89
Gilles Muller Andy Roddick U.S. Open - New York 30/08/2005 First Hard 7-6(4) 7-6(8) 7-6(1) 15.75
That and the ones in prev post are everything over 15.0 2004+. Don't have 2010 in the database yet, but off the top of my head can't think of any monster upsets this year that would be >15.0
What Federer has gone on to do since then has made it seem like less of an upset in retrospect. But yeah, at the time it happened, it would have definitely been considered up there.
Using average pre-match odds from Bet365, Bet&Win, Centrebet, Expekt, Ladbrokes, Gamebookers, Interwetten, Pinnacles Sports, Sportingbet, Stan James and Unibet, the biggest upsets since 2001 are (in order):
1. Soderling d. Nadal Roland Garros 2009
2. Canas d. Federer Indian Wells 2007
3. Murray d. Federer Cincinnati 2006
4. Simon d. Federer Canada 2008
5. Troicki d. Djokovic Umag 2007
6. G. Garcia-Lopez d. Nadal Bangkok 2010
7. Sela d. Roddick Queen's 2010
8. Qureshi (ranked 304) d. Gasquet Halle 2007
9. Benneteau d. Federer Paris (indoors) 2009
10. F. Gonzalez d. Federer Masters' Cup 2007
Full article (written mid 2009 so doesn't include 2010 upsets).
Gaudio def. Coria @ RG '04. Definitely a huge upset. Coria was the overwhelming favorite there. He had been lauded the Rg champion since the beginning of that year's clay season
When Masters had 64 draws and best of 5 final, they were worth gold, now they're not.
Tursunov def Henman in 05 Wimbledon was a big one. Henman had been a regular in the business end of SW19 every year till Dima held his nerve to take him out.
Hrbaty def Federer (peak Fed) in Cincinnati 04.
Calleri def Ferrero in Spain Davis Cup, JCF was the king of clay/RG, Calleri could occasionally turn it on and boy did he turn it on that day, fantastic.
lol I remember the Canas/Federer matches. I was trying to introduce my friend to professional tennis and told him how Federer was going to decimate Canas, while we watched Federer lose. It happened again the second time. So my friend ended up watching Federer only two times on TV and both times he lost to Canas, which is why he prefers Nadal over Federer.
1. Sod def Nadal (Never lost a match or even been brought to a fifth set)
2. Berdych def Fed (7 straight finals)
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