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the begining of the end of big 4

5K views 54 replies 37 participants last post by  Kite Flyer 
#1 ·
this year the big 4 have all been beatable and the chasing pack seem to be improving so i think this will be the first year since 2009 that someone other than the big 4 will win a slam. i think that both wimbledon and the us open will be won by non big 4 members mabye berdych at wimbledon and del potro at us open. i still think that the big 4 will dominate australia and french as the slower conditions make it more predictable for a few more years. however i may be speaking too soon but it appears that way.
 
#6 ·
Can agree that big 4 is looking less dominant, but if you look at big events - slams and Masters - the winners will be the same - AO - Nole def. Murray , IW- Rafa def.Delpo, MMiami - Murray def. Ferrer and MC - Nole def. Rafa - Madrid will most likely win Rafa - in F we hadnguys who are best besides big 4, but still maybe won´t win even Master 1000, not even mentioning slams - i can predict something like this

Madrid-Rafa
Rome-Nole or Rafa
RG-Nole or Rafa
Wimby-Murray or Roger
HC summer Masters - Canada - Nole,Murray, Cinci-Roger or Nole,Murray
Shanghai-Nole or Andy
Paris - if top guys skip it - tank it than someone like Berdych, Tsonga can take it
USO - definitely Nole or Murray, maybe even Roger if healthy, his record at USO is great

I don´t see Delpo, Berdych, Tsonga or Ferrer winning much and big 4 is looking less dominant

Rafa was months out and his level isn´t the same, he is not such clay monster
Nole - solid No.1 player, but upsets like vs Haas or Dimitrov - he is beatable for sure, don´t forger Wawrinka match in Melbourne

Murray- now tough times to compare him, because he sucks on clay,
Roger - overplayed in 2012, now 2 months rested - but that means is lacking matches - hard to tell but Roger is older, weaker

generally speaking big 4 is looking not good, but still can´t see other guys beating 2 of them to win slam for sure and even Masters 1000 will be super difficult besides Paris for obvisous reasons.
 
#37 ·
this year (and they year is young)

Nadal lost to Zellabos (this one is excused given the layoff)
Djokovic lost to Haas (35 year old), Dimitrov (young gun)
Murray lost horribly to Wawrinka (1 and 2 on clay), smashed by Berdych recently, etc
Federer has lost all over the place, he is the most obviously declined

and still the majority of the season is to go
although the top guys have managed to win the biggest events so far, it is very clear that they are winning less consistantly than in the past few seasons
more upsets are occurring
granted we've got to give it a bit more time to really give a summary like that, but so far this season definitely more players have been stepping up with belief than we have gotten used to in past few years
next season should be REALLY interesting although I am not convinced anyone one outside of the top 4 is capable to win the big GS bag quite yet
 
#8 · (Edited)
I think Fed's decline is obvious. I see no evidence though why anyone would be writing off the 26 year old Nadal and 25 year olds Djokovic & Murray.

Players like Berdych & Delpo have been able to pull out a shock win for years now. Its keeping that level for two weeks straight which has not proven possible for these players.
 
#13 ·
I think Fed's decline is obvious. I see no evidence though why anyone would be writing off the 26 year old Nadal and 25 year olds Djokovic & Murray.

Players like Berdych & Delpo have been able to pull out a shock win for years now. Its keeping that level for two weeks straight which has not proven possible for these players.
It has been obvious for some years now.

The guy won on average 2,33 slams per year from 2004-2009. From 2010-2012 he won 2 slams averaging 0,67.
Talking about finals from 2004-2009 he made on average 3,33 slam finals per year. From 2010-2012 he made 3 finals averaging 1.

So, the numbers are pretty telling about when the decline really began.
 
#9 ·
I think only Federer is in huge danger of ending the big 4. Well it has to come sometime.
 
#11 · (Edited)
Lol no way are two of the slams being won by non big 4 players. At a push one might make a final somewhere but I'm very confident all the slams will be won by big 4.

They have always been occasionally beaten by the other guys in masters etc. but beating them in slams over 5 sets is 50 times harder.
 
#12 ·
The only real change from last year this time of season is that Fed hasn't won anything. Nole had won a slam and a master at this point, Nadal had a won a masters, same same. In fact, since Nadal has won more tournaments this year, and Murray reached a GS final and won a masters(neither of which he had done by this point last year).
 
#15 ·
I agree with the OP that Wimbledon looks like the best option for a non-top 4 guy to shine. If the big dogs are getting surprised on clay as much as they have been recently, where their superior consistency and stamina should be rewarded more than anything else, then upsets on grass look very possible.

Add to that the fact that Murray is struggling for form and this could allow a Tsonga or a Berdych to sneak something at Wimby. It's certainly much more wide open this year than in previous years.
 
#17 ·
I agree with the OP that Wimbledon looks like the best option for a non-top 4 guy to shine. If the big dogs are getting surprised on clay as much as they have been recently, where their superior consistency and stamina should be rewarded more than anything else, then upsets on grass look very possible.

Add to that the fact that Murray is struggling for form and this could allow a Tsonga or a Berdych to sneak something at Wimby. It's certainly much more wide open this year than in previous years.
You say that as if Murray struggling on clay is unusual. This has NO bearing whatsoever on how he will play on grass, a surface he is 100 times more comfortable on.
 
#16 ·
I think Wimbledon will be the most interesting this year assuming Nadal is the fifth seed.

With the 5-8 seeds therefore being Nadal, Berdych, Del Potro and Tsonga, all of them can play amazing on grass (perhaps with the exception of Del Potro, but he can still play well) and realistically they can beat any of the top 4 in the quarter-finals.
 
#19 ·
There was never a big 4, Federer was already past his best by the time Djokovic and Murray especially started peaking, those two are clay clowns and Nadal needs luck to win on "faster" surfaces so the whole idea of 4 titans of the game fighting for everything was always a marketing ploy.
 
#21 ·
There was never a big 4, Federer was already past his best by the time Djokovic and Murray especially started peaking, those two are clay clowns and Nadal needs luck to win on "faster" surfaces so the whole idea of 4 titans of the game fighting for everything was always a marketing ploy.
:confused::smash::cuckoo::facepalm:
 
#20 ·
Wimbledon is the most open for me in terms of favourites. I could honestly see Murray, Federer, or Nadal winning it. The US Open, all 4 can take it. The big 4 is not over and Fed, while 2013 hasn't been great like 2012 up to this point, hasn't been as bad as people are making out. He was very close last year to not winning any titles by this time.
 
#22 ·
The Big 4's level is just so far above the others that even when playing badly compared to their usual standards, they still dominate the big tournaments. That's just the way it is.
 
#24 ·
I just don't think Federer belongs in top 4. He has done zilch this year. I love the guy but let's be honest. I just don't see him going back to #1 or doing all the things he says he will do.
 
#29 ·
I don't think anyone, Roger included, thinks he can get back to #1. That's a very tall order and Roger will be 32 years old in 4 months.

As for slams he reached the semis and pushed the current USO champion to 5 sets. The other tournaments were disappointing but he still have more than half of the season to go so Roger can improve his results.

I don't expect him to get back to #1, or #2. I think he will end the year #4. After Djokovic and nadal he is the favourite for RG. And he's in equal footing with the big 4 for Wimbledon. I'm not saying he will necessarily win it but he's always a factor for the big tournaments.

Anyways, as long as he feels like playing I'll be watching. Of course I hope he maintains a certain level of play and doesn't lose to any and every mug out there. I think he will be able to remain competitive and win a couple of titles per year.
 
#26 ·
There was never a big 4 in the first place. A one slam wonder mug fluking a slam in hurricane conditions does not make one a member of big 4. Haggisboy needs 3 slams minimum to be anywhere near the true elites of the sport.
 
#33 ·
It's the end of the big 4. The start of the Big 1 that is Nadal.

7/7 finals this year.
potentially 5/7 titles after tomorrow.
Other scrubs aren't getting past the Quarters, if they managed to get out of R2 and R3

There's no debate. They lucked out at Wimbledon, USO and AO that Nadal was injured, and now Rafa wants his crown back.
 
#35 ·
murrayand federer will fall to 3 and 4 in t he rankings. The old man might go even lower. Since Nadal is back, it will be a repeat of the 2011 season.
 
#44 ·
Yeah from today on, only Berdych, Wawa, Nishikori and Dimitrov will be reaching GS semifinals regurarly. :rolleyes:
 
#45 ·
:lol:
 
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