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Old 04-01-2010, 11:47 AM   #121
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by Bonnie the Cat View Post
^^ I happen to disagree respectfully. Yes, Nadal is making more UEs than he usually does, but don't forget that it's on HC, where a more aggressive game suits the player. With playing more aggressively - which he does right now - come more UEs.
As I've been following him the past six years, I can honestly say that his level of playing is really fine right now - especially for HC. And as clay suits him even more, yes, I do expect him to be able to defend the majority of points, as he's more-or-less done that five years in a row now.
I've also followed him in the last 6 years actually

No, his UE are not all explained by attacking more, far from that.
Actually many of the shots he misses are played with spin, not flat shots.

And he's more often late when the opponent's ball is long than he was in Doha.
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Old 04-01-2010, 03:47 PM   #122
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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I've also followed him in the last 6 years actually

No, his UE are not all explained by attacking more, far from that.
Actually many of the shots he misses are played with spin, not flat shots.

And he's more often late when the opponent's ball is long than he was in Doha.
Everyone's entitled to his/her own opinion . I think Rafa has surely improved playing more attacking tennis. And you can't compare the Doha surface - medium paced - with the IW/Miami one (very slow).
A winning shot doesn't always need to be a flat one, for instance - Rafa knows very well that a lot of players (perhaps I should say ALL of them) have a lot of problems with his spin balls and as such, they are winners too when the opponent isn't able to return them.

But we'll find out soon enough I guess.
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Old 04-01-2010, 04:49 PM   #123
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Everyone's entitled to his/her own opinion . I think Rafa has surely improved playing more attacking tennis. And you can't compare the Doha surface - medium paced - with the IW/Miami one (very slow).
A winning shot doesn't always need to be a flat one, for instance - Rafa knows very well that a lot of players (perhaps I should say ALL of them) have a lot of problems with his spin balls and as such, they are winners too when the opponent isn't able to return them.
of course everyone is entitled to his/her opinion, I'm always surprised when people say that as it's so obvious

Actually I've been especially often said that , which is surely related with the "tone" of my posts . That's not what I mean but well, I'm used to getting that reaction , I've made my mind up about that

As for my opinion if ever you're interested and if it doesn't look as a denial that you're "entitled to your opinion", sorry :

- Nadal makes errors that he didn't do, even in Doha and his quicker surface.

- Normally he has security when he puts spin in his shots.
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Old 04-02-2010, 07:36 PM   #124
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

And the plot thickens.

I honestly believed that Nadal was good enough to win Miami. Now that Roddick has taken him out in the SF Nadal has a theoretical maximum of 9050. Federer currently stands at a minimum of 7240. That's a difference of 1810 if Federer wants to break the record on his own accord (not rely on Nadal's results).
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Old 04-02-2010, 07:57 PM   #125
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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I don't think Nadal will clean up all of the clay season, and even if Djokovic, who is usually his main opponent, is far from his best.

As he plays now, I think that many players, esp claycourt players, can give him many problems on clay.
After tonight's match, I saw that Nadal's power is back at his best, then I think that he will be on clay like every year.

Unfortunately for him Roddick was on fire tonight but anyway it would have been hard for him against Söderling, as he has currently a problem with quick tense balls.

It's not good for him for Wimbledon (but there's a lot of time before that), but on clay, it will not be a problem.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Midnight Ninja
I honestly believed that Nadal was good enough to win Miami. Now that Roddick has taken him out in the SF Nadal has a theoretical maximum of 9050. Federer currently stands at a minimum of 7240. That's a difference of 1810 if Federer wants to break the record on his own accord (not rely on Nadal's results).
my numbers are just a little bit different : after the Queens, a maximum of 9450 for Nadal (minimum of 3700), and a minimum of 7315 for Federer.

Nadal's threat is still here obviously, even though it would have been quite stronger if he had won Miami.
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Old 04-02-2010, 08:34 PM   #126
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

An interesting change of events indeed now that Nadal is ousted in the semis of Miami - which I didn't at all expect to happen, as I still believe he's close to his best level - at least physically - mentally might well be a different story, but I think those who contribute his loss today to a mere 'choke', are selling Roddick short.

I'm expecting a severe battle on the clay between the two, not as much between them on the court, but more, who can make the most out of it.
If both don't manage to do well/reasonable enough, is there still a possibility of a Lucky Third being able to run off with the prize come week #287?
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Old 04-02-2010, 08:51 PM   #127
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by duong View Post
my numbers are just a little bit different : after the Queens, a maximum of 9450 for Nadal (minimum of 3700), and a minimum of 7315 for Federer.

Nadal's threat is still here obviously, even though it would have been quite stronger if he had won Miami.
Thanks for the input. However, I checked my numbers again and couldn't quite find where I made the error. Can you confirm it if possible? http://bit.ly/cO8eYl

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bonnie the Cat View Post
An interesting change of events indeed now that Nadal is ousted in the semis of Miami - which I didn't at all expect to happen, as I still believe he's close to his best level - at least physically - mentally might well be a different story, but I think those who contribute his loss today to a mere 'choke', are selling Roddick short.

I'm expecting a severe battle on the clay between the two, not as much between them on the court, but more, who can make the most out of it.
If both don't manage to do well/reasonable enough, is there still a possibility of a Lucky Third being able to run off with the prize come week #287?
I haven't seen the match (apart from the penultimate game) so can't quite comment on the match but from what I saw against Tsonga he looked pretty good. With duong also changing his position to him being back, I am fairly convinced that Nadal is back to his "peak".

As for the rankings (what this thread is all about), theoretically Murray and Djokovic are still the greater risks. That being said, it is virtually improbable that Murray will win any major clay event (MS or RG). Djokovic could possibly be a risk but I think Nadal and Djokovic might trade titles this season thereby reducing the risk of either player overtaking Federer. It would be interesting to see whether Nadal plays Madrid if he wins MC, Barcelona and Rome. If he doesn't then Federer can virtually guarantee the record even with QF showings from here on out.

Obviously this is all conjecture.
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Old 04-02-2010, 09:00 PM   #128
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Thanks for the input. However, I checked my numbers again and couldn't quite find where I made the error. Can you confirm it if possible? http://bit.ly/cO8eYl.
you forgot Doha for both Nad and Fed

And Davis Cup actually can't count for Fed as he has not played 4 ATP500 tournaments

Moreover, what I'm interested in is beating the record, not just equalling then I check after the Queens/Halle which can give 250 points to both players
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Old 04-02-2010, 09:01 PM   #129
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Thank you Roddick for knocking off Nadal. Very happy with the result.
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Old 04-02-2010, 09:04 PM   #130
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

seriously? who the fuck cares
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Old 04-02-2010, 09:05 PM   #131
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

(7405) Federer Minimum
[7850] Nadal Maximum
[7940] Del Potro Maximum (-1000)
[8840] Djokovic Maximum
[9480] Murray Maximum

Roger only needs 455 points in the clay season to make it impossible for Nadal to pass him.

Edit, Delpo out of MC, puts him -1000. Fed can clinch over Nadal with a W at Estoril. He'll be very close to clinching over Del Potro.

That leaves Djokovic and Murray.
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Old 04-02-2010, 09:08 PM   #132
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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If both don't manage to do well/reasonable enough, is there still a possibility of a Lucky Third being able to run off with the prize come week #287?
Right now, Djokovic, Del Potro, or Murray could all conceivably be number one after RG, depending on how well any of them do. Most likely, is Murray right now at number 2 after RG, coming into Wimbledon.

I'm not too worried about Federer, because none of his main rivals did anything at the start of the year. We are on clay now, and Roger is the reigning clay champion.
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Old 04-02-2010, 09:26 PM   #133
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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you forgot Doha for both Nad and Fed

And Davis Cup actually can't count for Fed as he has not played 4 ATP500 tournaments

Moreover, what I'm interested in is beating the record, not just equalling then I check after the Queens/Halle which can give 250 points to both players
Thanks for the corrections regarding DC. I would rep you but need to spread it around first.

It wasn't actually a mistake but more of a conscious decision not to include the 250 events. I think it will be better to add them in once the race becomes closer.
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Old 04-02-2010, 09:39 PM   #134
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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(7405) Federer Minimum
[7850] Nadal Maximum
[8840] Djokovic Maximum
[8940] Del Potro Maximum
[9480] Murray Maximum

Roger only needs 455 points in the clay season to make it impossible for Nadal to pass him.
How do you get those figures for Nadal - did you forget he lost at Roland Garros in the fourth round last year? I make his maximum 9280 after the French, and he can only gain in Paris and Madrid. With Federer's minimum 7315 (my calc), that's still an awful lot of work for Roger to do.

Also, my numbers show Del Potro at 10045 max, and Djokovic 11070; Murray's max is lower - 8935. It's far from done.

Edit: Murray max now 9935 with the Monte Carlo wildcard

Last edited by jtipson : 04-02-2010 at 10:42 PM. Reason: Murray requested a wc into Monte Carlo
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Old 04-02-2010, 10:00 PM   #135
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Thanks for the corrections regarding DC. I would rep you but need to spread it around first.

It wasn't actually a mistake but more of a conscious decision not to include the 250 events. I think it will be better to add them in once the race becomes closer.
well, I understand about the Queens but why is it a problem to give these 150 and 90 points in Doha ?
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