[BlueSwan]

Originally Posted by crude oil

the questions is...will fed beat the record or annhilate it?

At this moment I think he'll JUST beat the record and then lose the #1 ranking after Wimbledon. His non-slam results are so poor that he can't keep the #1 ranking unless he cleans up at the slams, and surely he cannot continue to do that forever.

[Sunset of Age]

Originally Posted by BlueSwan

At this moment I think he'll JUST beat the record and then lose the #1 ranking after Wimbledon. His non-slam results are so poor that he can't keep the #1 ranking unless he cleans up at the slams, and surely he cannot continue to do that forever.

Agree. Only a bit more negative. If he keeps on rubbishing along like he did in IW/Maimi, I have yet to see whether he'll be able to keep that #1 position at all until RG. Bash the bad messenger, folks.

[Puschkin]

Originally Posted by Bonnie the Cat

I have yet to see whether he'll be able to keep that #1 position at all until RG.

Why so negative? It is not that his opponents are winning tournaments left and right. Who should take the Nr 1 spot away from him until RG?

Murray on clay?
Djokovic who has enough to do to sort out quite a variety of troubles?
Nadal with his hands full to defend his own points?

[ApproachShot]

Originally Posted by Bonnie the Cat

Agree. Only a bit more negative. If he keeps on rubbishing along like he did in IW/Maimi, I have yet to see whether he'll be able to keep that #1 position at all until RG. Bash the bad messenger, folks.

Federer will keep his #1 ranking until the end of RG at the very least. However I agree that he will likely lose it after Wimbledon - perhaps even if he defends his title there. In the event that Federer falls at week #285 (one week short of tying the record), then the post-Wimbledon outlook becomes very important - where aside from Cincy he potentially has points to gain. But then again, Nadal will also have ample opportunities to pick up points to keep ahead until the end of 2010.

[Midnight Ninja]

Originally Posted by ApproachShot

Federer will keep his #1 ranking until the end of RG at the very least. However I agree that he will likely lose it after Wimbledon - perhaps even if he defends his title there. In the event that Federer falls at week #285 (one week short of tying the record), then the post-Wimbledon outlook becomes very important - where aside from Cincy he potentially has points to gain. But then again, Nadal will also have ample opportunities to pick up points to keep ahead until the end of 2010.

Post Wimbledon, Nadal has points to gain but not potentially as much as Federer. Roger has a QF at Canada, win at Cincy, Final at US, and just a final at Basel. Nadal has a SF at Paris, Beijing and Cincy (I think), SF at US, F at Shanghai. The worst chunk of points for Nadal comes at the WTF where he has 1500 points to gain!!!

[marcRD]

I always laught at people who think that a player with alot of points to defend should not be a threat. Right now Nadal is a major threat for the record, he wins every season 2 master series on clay, Barcelona and Roland Garros which should mean he is going to add almost 2000 points, that is if he doesnt win Miami asweel which should give him even more points. Federer himself will have to produce good results on clay because he has 3360 points to defend, an avarage clay season where he would only get lets say 1500 points would mean he loses the nr1 spot to Nadal.

In Wimbledon things get even worse, but I am still confident Federer is going to win Wimbledon but Nadal could still add some valuable points there.

Can we please stop talking about Murray and Djokovic? Clearly they cant produce the results to take away nr1 from Federer.

[ApproachShot]

Originally Posted by Midnight Ninja

Post Wimbledon, Nadal has points to gain but not potentially as much as Federer. Roger has a QF at Canada, win at Cincy, Final at US, and just a final at Basel. Nadal has a SF at Paris, Beijing and Cincy (I think), SF at US, F at Shanghai. The worst chunk of points for Nadal comes at the WTF where he has 1500 points to gain!!!

Of course Federer also has 400 points from the World Tour Finals. If Nadal does overtake Federer, I don't envisage him to reclaim the ranking until the Asian hard court swing / Basel at the earliest. That may change though if he decides to enter Monte Carlo and performs well in it.

[SUKTUEN]

Roger, don't be sad~~

we always love you~~ take a good rest~~see you in clay!!

[marcRD]

Watchout, the way Nadal is playing he could sweep through claycourt season. I mean, he is really playing good tennis. Who is going to stop him on clay this season?

[NYCtennisfan]

Nadal has played really well this year. He could have just as easily won against Davy in Doha and should have beaten Ivan. Murray played a great match against Nadal in Australia and even then, Nadal had plenty of chances.

[Sunset of Age]

Originally Posted by marcRD

Watchout, the way Nadal is playing he could sweep through claycourt season. I mean, he is really playing good tennis. Who is going to stop him on clay this season?

I based my earlier (rather overreacting, yes, but well that's how I deal with severe disappointments ) post on exactly this. I've been rather surprised with all those folks claiming that Nadal was 'done' in the past couple of months. Yes, he's had his knee troubles again (and that problem will continue to reoccur), but judging on how well he's playing right now again, I expect him to sweep the clay season yet again.
Roger himself will have to keep close to his results of last year to not lose too many points, and that won't be an easy task. I'm hoping that he'll accept a WC at Monte Carlo again, picking up some easy points over there might well be a good idea in the light of attempting to break Sampras' record, as it might well be getting very close.

Keep in mind, there is one (well, more, to me personally ) very positive aspect about Rafa doing well again right now: with Djokovic and Murray struggling, DelPotro and Davydenko still out with injuries, and the rest of the field too far back on points to be able to do any real damage, the chances are very good that he'll be able to pick up the #2 ranking position in the upcoming months again. As such, he'll at least be on the other side of the draw for sure again, so no risk of Roger having to play Rafa in the semis of RG (and elsewhere).

[wackykid]

Originally Posted by marcRD

Can we please stop talking about Murray and Djokovic? Clearly they cant produce the results to take away nr1 from Federer.

urm as far as this thread is concerned... it's about mathematically possibilities so no... i can't stop talking about murray/djokovic... because as far as maths says... djokovic is still the biggest threat... but as far as tennis says... most will agree that nadal is a bigger threat...

Originally Posted by Bonnie the Cat

he'll be able to pick up the #2 ranking position in the upcoming months again. As such, he'll at least be on the other side of the draw for sure again, so no risk of Roger having to play Rafa in the semis of RG (and elsewhere).

that is quite true... i am rooting for rafa too... not just hoping that he is on other half of the draw in RG... he is also the player i like 2nd most (besides roger of coz) ... and i think he is a more deserving no.2 than anyone else... will be nice to see him back to his rightful position...


regards,
wacky

[BlueSwan]

Originally Posted by wackykid

and i think he is a more deserving no.2 than anyone else... will be nice to see him back to his rightful position...

Unless the knee injury reoccurs, I think it is a given that he'll be AT LEAST #2 after Wimbledon and likely #1.

[duong]

I'm far more worried about Federer losing early in the clay season than about Nadal cleaning everything on clay as he did in the past.

I think people are overating Nadal's current level.

Yesterday after a few games, you had the stat

Unforced errors : Nadal 10 Tsonga 1

And I've seen many more unforced errors from Nadal recently.

Physically he's not a beast as he was in Doha.

I always have the impression that people judge players on their results and not on their game.

It reminds me of Nadal beating Tsonga in Paris "he's back and everything" ... he was crushed by Djokovic next round.

I prefer looking at the GAME.

When I saw Nadal in Doha, I was really afraid of him making back a huge season.

In Doha he was really great, esp physically.

At this moment I would have bet on Nadal number 1 without any problems.

But since Melbourne, and after coming back from injury here (I guess everybody is forgetting that), he's good but far from his best and Doha's level.

Even Tsonga said that he felt that he was less breathless after long points than Nadal (but he also said that as he took one minute for rest before serving, he didn't suffer from that )

I don't think Nadal will clean up all of the clay season, and even if Djokovic, who is usually his main opponent, is far from his best.

As he plays now, I think that many players, esp claycourt players, can give him many problems on clay.

And it will be exhausting for him if he has many hard matches like the one against Ferrer a few days ago.

The best I can imagine for Nadal would be that he wins Miami, MCarlo, Barcelona and Roma, skips Madrid (he's not on the poster of the tournament by the way), and wins RG : in that case, Federer would need 1700 points to break the record. Actually I'm worried about Federer doing it, but I'm far from sure that Nadal can do all of that. Already he has far from won Miami imo.

When Blue Swan says that Nadal has an advantage in the rankings because he can clean up clay season while his opponents have to share the points on hard courts, actually this advantage has a huge drawback : he has to play mant matches in a row.

He's also going far on hardcourt tournaments before the clay season : it's one more burden for him and his knees before the clay season

Federer can lose early on clay season, that's definitely possible imo, but I wouldn't bet at all in a Nadal cleaning up everything on clay as he did previous years (including 2009 when only Roland-Garros was missing).

[Sunset of Age]

^^ I happen to disagree respectfully. Yes, Nadal is making more UEs than he usually does, but don't forget that it's on HC, where a more aggressive game suits the player. With playing more aggressively - which he does right now - come more UEs.
As I've been following him the past six years, I can honestly say that his level of playing is really fine right now - especially for HC. And as clay suits him even more, yes, I do expect him to be able to defend the majority of points, as he's more-or-less done that five years in a row now.

I do agree however that the greatest danger is Roger having these early exits on the clay as well. So it eventually all comes down to his own performances.

Well anyhow - we'll find out in a couple of weeks' time.