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Old 03-28-2010, 01:07 PM   #76
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by JediFed View Post
Yes, but you don't quite understand. I tallied all the tournaments and points that they had after RG all the way to after the AO as the base.

This is why Murray is still a greater threat than Djoko, for the simple reason that he piled on more points from June of last year, to February of this year. Djoko, on the other hand, has a substantial amount his points based on this section of the season. Now when I award both of them their maximums, Djokovic gets zero benefits for doing well last year in these tournaments, and Murray gets rewarded for doing poorly, even though they receive the exactly same thing, a win.
I think there is some error in your calculation. I just did some quick calculations here (including the three 500 W for Djokovic) and it is Djokovic who actually leads Murray in the number of points from RG 09 to IW/Miami. According to my calculations Djokovic has a base of 5570 and Murray at 4450. Adding the 5500~ point maximum for both, you reach a technical maximum of 1170 and 9950.
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Old 03-28-2010, 01:55 PM   #77
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Djokovic leads by 1100 points, but having a lot of his points in 500s means he can only gain 820 points by winning MC and cannot gain anything in Barcelona, while Murray can gain 1500 points in Barcelona and MC by winning both. This is why the potential difference between them is not the same as the actual points won so far difference.
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Old 03-28-2010, 02:01 PM   #78
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Djokovic leads by 1100 points, but having a lot of his points in 500s means he can only gain 820 points by winning MC and cannot gain anything in Barcelona, while Murray can gain 1500 points in Barcelona and MC by winning both. This is why the potential difference between them is not the same as the actual points won so far difference.
I get that but, when counting down from RG to now, we don't count MC. So he can "gain" 1000 points from MC. Also agreed that Murray can gain 1500 but the difference still remains 500 points which is still smaller than the difference of 1100 points.

Anyways, I still think Murray and Djokovic will be non-factors in the race to 287. Even if Djokovic regains form, he will be exchanging points with Nadal thereby ensuring Federer's spot.

I think the best bet now would be for Djokovic and Nadal to keep winning alternate tournaments so that no one player gets the chunk of points.
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Old 03-28-2010, 03:09 PM   #79
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Question: the ATP site mentions that 8 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments are counted as part of the ranking as well as the best 4 ATP World Tour 500. Does this mean that only the best 3 ATP World Tour 500 are counted if all 9 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments are played. I assume that's the case but it is not mentioned specifically.
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Old 03-28-2010, 03:23 PM   #80
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Question: the ATP site mentions that 8 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments are counted as part of the ranking as well as the best 4 ATP World Tour 500. Does this mean that only the best 3 ATP World Tour 500 are counted if all 9 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments are played. I assume that's the case but it is not mentioned specifically.
It depends on your MC points. If you get more points in MC than your worst showing in a 500 series, then MC is counted, else the worst 500 is counted as your four.
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Old 03-28-2010, 03:51 PM   #81
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Yes, but you don't quite understand. I tallied all the tournaments and points that they had after RG all the way to after the AO as the base.

This is why Murray is still a greater threat than Djoko, for the simple reason that he piled on more points from June of last year, to February of this year. Djoko, on the other hand, has a substantial amount his points based on this section of the season. Now when I award both of them their maximums, Djokovic gets zero benefits for doing well last year in these tournaments, and Murray gets rewarded for doing poorly, even though they receive the exactly same thing, a win.
No, Murray is not a bigger threat than Djokovic. Obviously it is more likely Djokovic with Nadal kind of uncertain on clay season can go on winning 2 master series and RG, in which case he will probably end up as nr1 after RG.

Murray wont win a clay master series and wont win RG and therefor no matter what kind of math you are working with is no big threat to Federer's nr1 record.

Only Djokovic and Nadal have the potential to have crazy clay seasons while Federer with some early loses in the big ones would be in danger of not breaking the record.
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Old 03-28-2010, 03:58 PM   #82
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by Midnight Ninja View Post
It depends on your MC points. If you get more points in MC than your worst showing in a 500 series, then MC is counted, else the worst 500 is counted as your four.
Didn't know that.

Still, if you look at Djokovic's points breakdown his worst 1000 tournament (IW 90pts) is worse than his fourth 500 tournament (Rdam 180pts) but the 90 points are counted and the 4th 500 is not.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/P...ovic.aspx?t=rb
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Old 03-28-2010, 04:03 PM   #83
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Didn't know that.

Still, if you look at Djokovic's points breakdown his worst 1000 tournament (IW 90pts) is worse than his fourth 500 tournament (Rdam 180pts) but the 90 points are counted and the 4th 500 is not.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/P...ovic.aspx?t=rb
It's not the worst 1000 tournament. All 8 except for Monte-Carlo are counted irrespective of other results. For Monte Carlo, since it's optional, it replaces your worst 500 result.

So Since he got a 600 in Monte Carlo alst year, better than his 180 at Rotterdam, he can count that as his fourth 500 tournament.
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Old 03-29-2010, 05:31 AM   #84
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Here is the base, as of January 31st.

As you can see:

(7180) Federer Minimum
[10350] Nadal Maximum
[11150] Djokovic Maximum
[11940] Del Potro Maximum (including 2 optionals)
[12280] Murray Maximum

Djokovic was third at that point with pontential points.
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Old 03-29-2010, 05:40 AM   #85
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Murray wont win a clay master series and wont win RG and therefor no matter what kind of math you are working with is no big threat to Federer's nr1 record.

Only Djokovic and Nadal have the potential to have crazy clay seasons while Federer with some early loses in the big ones would be in danger of not breaking the record.
Grr, Murray is still in a better position now than Nadal, or Djokovic.
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Old 03-29-2010, 05:42 AM   #86
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Quote:
5570 and Murray at 4450
You're going to have to lay out those calculations because those are simply wrong.
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Old 03-29-2010, 11:42 AM   #87
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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You're going to have to lay out those calculations because those are simply wrong.
Possible but these are the calculations I'm coming up with every time.


http://bit.ly/cO8eYl

The only reason why Murray is higher than Djokovic (by the slimmest of margins) is because of IW. Otherwise Djokovic was in the lead.

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Old 03-29-2010, 02:04 PM   #88
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thanks for the infor~~
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Old 03-29-2010, 03:33 PM   #89
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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No, but if Djokovic plays and wins MC, Barcelona, Rome, Belgrade, and Madrid according to my little spreadsheet he could still reach 9605 points which is more than the 9225 if Fed looses everything. Now it's highly unlikely he'll play all those tournaments, particularly Barcelona and Belgrade and it's even more unlikely he'll win everything but theoretically I believe Djokovic could still reach no.1 after Madrid.
Djokovic will play Belgrade as his father is the owner of the tournament, but he will not play Barcelona. I guess he has enough problems now to even think of playing everything

By the way, marcRD spoke as if Djokovic had no chance to take number 1 from Federer : I did seriously believe he could, he was able to win IW and Miami, actually even on clay he's second or third after Nadal, and if Nadal is injured, he was perfectly able to win RG and MS1000 tournament on clay as Federer did.

Now he still has a better theoretical deal than Nadal on a mathematical point of view, but the conditions are far worse for him, esp considering his recent problems with serve and other issues
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Old 03-29-2010, 03:40 PM   #90
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by JediFed View Post
Here is the base, as of January 31st.

As you can see:

(7180) Federer Minimum
[10350] Nadal Maximum
[11150] Djokovic Maximum
[11940] Del Potro Maximum (including 2 optionals)
[12280] Murray Maximum

Djokovic was third at that point with pontential points.
I don't understand anything about your calculations. I never had this result : Djokovic was always ahead of Murray in mine, together with Davydenko and Del Potro.

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