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Old 03-27-2010, 08:17 PM   #61
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Murray under Djokovic at 9935 maximum points now.
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Old 03-27-2010, 08:30 PM   #62
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Guaranteed 285 weeks now, if I've calculated correctly. A few additional points in Miami would be nice, though.
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Old 03-27-2010, 08:33 PM   #63
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

"Thanks so much, Djoko and Muzza! You've done an awesome job for us. We'll be eternally grateful and be sure to return the compliment in... 2015 or so.

Kind Regards,

Rog & Raf"

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Old 03-27-2010, 09:45 PM   #64
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

yes I guess that the 285 weeks are certain, and it's confirmed that the only threat is Nadal winning everything until RG
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Old 03-27-2010, 09:57 PM   #65
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

I cant quite believe Murray and Djokovic even were discussed as the threats to Federer's record when we all know Nadal has it in him to win everything until RG, it wouldnt really even surprise me even with his knee problems.
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Old 03-27-2010, 10:26 PM   #66
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtipson View Post
Guaranteed 285 weeks now, if I've calculated correctly. A few additional points in Miami would be nice, though.
yes... 285 weeks is guaranteed now from my calculations too...

Quote:
Originally Posted by marcRD View Post
I cant quite believe Murray and Djokovic even were discussed as the threats to Federer's record when we all know Nadal has it in him to win everything until RG, it wouldnt really even surprise me even with his knee problems.
well the thing is i called this thread "countdown to record #1" thread because realistically i din even think anyone can stop roger from taking the record (at the time when the thread started)... not even nadal. but given the maths we can't be certain to hand the #1 record to him yet. so it's not so much of who is bigger threat to the record but it's about when we can hand the #1 record to him... and i am talking about giving him the record BEFORE 287 weeks is up... and so when this day comes then my job is done here and can stop updating this thread (the thread will then be called "congrats on record #1 thread" or something) and start celebrating...

and wow thanks for sticking my thread...!


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Old 03-27-2010, 10:51 PM   #67
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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I guess you suppose that Djokovic plays Houston or casablanca, because if not there's no way for him to catch Fed after Madrid in my calculation
No, but if Djokovic plays and wins MC, Barcelona, Rome, Belgrade, and Madrid according to my little spreadsheet he could still reach 9605 points which is more than the 9225 if Fed looses everything. Now it's highly unlikely he'll play all those tournaments, particularly Barcelona and Belgrade and it's even more unlikely he'll win everything but theoretically I believe Djokovic could still reach no.1 after Madrid.
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Old 03-27-2010, 11:34 PM   #68
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by Wolbo View Post
No, but if Djokovic plays and wins MC, Barcelona, Rome, Belgrade, and Madrid according to my little spreadsheet he could still reach 9605 points which is more than the 9225 if Fed looses everything. Now it's highly unlikely he'll play all those tournaments, particularly Barcelona and Belgrade and it's even more unlikely he'll win everything but theoretically I believe Djokovic could still reach no.1 after Madrid.
According to the doc posted, Federer's minimum for 285 (after Madrid/until RG) is 9240. And for Djokovic, it is 9170 maximum. I think where you might have made a mistake is that since Djokovic has three 500 W's already, the maximum he can gain by another 500 win in Barcelona is 320 (replacing his 180 in Rotterdam).
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Old 03-28-2010, 01:30 AM   #69
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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yes... 285 weeks is guaranteed now from my calculations too...



well the thing is i called this thread "countdown to record #1" thread because realistically i din even think anyone can stop roger from taking the record (at the time when the thread started)... not even nadal. but given the maths we can't be certain to hand the #1 record to him yet. so it's not so much of who is bigger threat to the record but it's about when we can hand the #1 record to him... and i am talking about giving him the record BEFORE 287 weeks is up... and so when this day comes then my job is done here and can stop updating this thread (the thread will then be called "congrats on record #1 thread" or something) and start celebrating...

and wow thanks for sticking my thread...!


regards,
wacky
I perfectly understood that, I am just talking about most people have been talking about Djokovic and Murray as the biggest threat because they can potentialy gain most points during clay season, obviously Nadal is the biggest threat when he in fact has won 4 out of 5 big clay events for like 4 out of the last 5 years and 3 out of 5 last year. We know Nadal winning Rome, Barcelona and Monte Carlo is likely while winning Madrid is less certain, winning RG is very likely and winning Miami is possible. If Nadal does that (wins 5 out of the next 6 tournaments), probably there will be nothing Federer can do to stop him taking the nr1 spot because Federer will be defending 3450 points during clay season..
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Old 03-28-2010, 01:38 AM   #70
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

MarcRD: I think part of the reason why Nadal was relatively less discussed was because he has/had a HUGE number of points to defend. Even currently, if he wins everything in sight, Federer needs to gain around 2950 points to make Nadals results inconsequential. That can be achieved by finals in Miami, Rome and Madrid + RG final so not completely out of hand but an uphill task.
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Old 03-28-2010, 02:34 AM   #71
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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sorry but can you break down how you get all the points into the points from each tournament...? cos i still have no clue how u get those numbers... in particularly for djokovic..
What I did was take the 5 top players and their total number of points after the AO.

Then what I did was award Djoko, Murray, Del Potro and Nadal their respective maximums assuming that micky mouse tournaments won't have a substantial effect on the outcome.

Then I compare this to Fed's minimum. When Fed's minimum exceeds that of everyone's maximum, then we know he has clinched.

As the tournaments have progressed, I have added points to Federer and subtracted points from the rest according to their performance.
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Old 03-28-2010, 03:09 AM   #72
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by marcRD View Post
I perfectly understood that, I am just talking about most people have been talking about Djokovic and Murray as the biggest threat because they can potentialy gain most points during clay season, obviously Nadal is the biggest threat when he in fact has won 4 out of 5 big clay events for like 4 out of the last 5 years and 3 out of 5 last year. We know Nadal winning Rome, Barcelona and Monte Carlo is likely while winning Madrid is less certain, winning RG is very likely and winning Miami is possible. If Nadal does that (wins 5 out of the next 6 tournaments), probably there will be nothing Federer can do to stop him taking the nr1 spot because Federer will be defending 3450 points during clay season..
yes agree that it's still more likely for nadal to win all these compared to murray/djokovic winning them all... but i don't consider it that likely... even nadal himself has never won all these in the same season before so he is likely to drop some points... but well yeah u'll never know for sure wat will happen... that is why we track the points...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Midnight Ninja View Post
MarcRD: I think part of the reason why Nadal was relatively less discussed was because he has/had a HUGE number of points to defend. Even currently, if he wins everything in sight, Federer needs to gain around 2950 points to make Nadals results inconsequential. That can be achieved by finals in Miami, Rome and Madrid + RG final so not completely out of hand but an uphill task.
yup... i was more looking in terms of points difference...

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Originally Posted by JediFed View Post
What I did was take the 5 top players and their total number of points after the AO.

Then what I did was award Djoko, Murray, Del Potro and Nadal their respective maximums assuming that micky mouse tournaments won't have a substantial effect on the outcome.

Then I compare this to Fed's minimum. When Fed's minimum exceeds that of everyone's maximum, then we know he has clinched.

As the tournaments have progressed, I have added points to Federer and subtracted points from the rest according to their performance.
urm djokovic has more points after AO than murray (510 points more)... even if you don't include micky mouse tournaments that you can earn... how in the world did djokovic ended up with (nearly 1k) less points than murray?? considering that both have roughly the same number of points to defend between AO until french... so both can potentially gaining similar number of points after AO assuming they win all... so net result will never put djokovic nearly 1k below murray...


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Old 03-28-2010, 05:41 AM   #73
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Nadal is more likely to win every single tournament he enters until RG than Murray's odds of winning RG.

Nadal would probably be 1 in 2 to win atleast 2 clay master series, Barcelona+RG. Nadal is 1 in 4 to win Miami, he would be 1 in 2 to win another master series. That means he counting with my odds is 1 in 16 to win all tournaments from now on and 1 in 4 to win all tournaments during clay season (he almost did it 2007).

Murray is less than 1 in 40 to simply win RG, he is 1 in 30 to win every clay master series he takes part in. Djokovic is probably 1 in 10 to win RG and 1 in 8 to win each clay master series.

Nadal is not only the biggest threat, it is obviously the only threat.
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Old 03-28-2010, 06:05 AM   #74
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

ALLEZZZZZZZZZ Roger !!!


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Old 03-28-2010, 07:40 AM   #75
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Default Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Quote:
urm djokovic has more points after AO than murray (510 points more)
Yes, but you don't quite understand. I tallied all the tournaments and points that they had after RG all the way to after the AO as the base.

This is why Murray is still a greater threat than Djoko, for the simple reason that he piled on more points from June of last year, to February of this year. Djoko, on the other hand, has a substantial amount his points based on this section of the season. Now when I award both of them their maximums, Djokovic gets zero benefits for doing well last year in these tournaments, and Murray gets rewarded for doing poorly, even though they receive the exactly same thing, a win.
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