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Old 02-02-2009, 10:19 PM   #1
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Default Tempting Tuesday

Viktor Troicki over Simone Bolelli @ 2.18

We all know Bolelli can't return big serves and troicki can serve big when he want's to. I make this 60-40 in viktors favour so good odds.

Schwank 2-1 over Capdeville @ 4.3

Schwank is the better, younger player but i have a feeling he may let a set slip on the way to beating the chilean on home soil.

Seppi over Zverev @ 1.55

No doubt that Mischa has the bigger serve here but seppi is the smarter player no doubt, reasonable odds for a solid favourite here i think.

Hanescu 2-0 over Zovko @ 1.51

Again low odds here but i can't see how this bet could lose.

Anderson over Minar @ 1.62

Massive south african on home turf here against a mug at the best of time ivo minar, i wouldn;t be surprised if ivo took a sweetener from the tournament directors for this match, even if its clean kevin should come out on top.

Gil over Koellerer @ 1.68

This is probably my favourite bet of the day, gil loves playing on hard and even won a challenger on hard back in august only dropping one set on his way to the title beating the likes of peya , muller and stahhovsky, koellerer only played one hard court match in 2008 and lost in straights.
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Old 02-02-2009, 10:59 PM   #2
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

Zverev @2.77 over Seppi
Chiudinelli @2.16 over Cipolla
Massu @1.96 over Calleri

GL
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Old 02-02-2009, 11:25 PM   #3
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

ZVEREV @ 2.94 Over Seppi
Massu at 2.00 Over Calleri

Zverev a bigger bet.

Slim pickings.
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Old 02-02-2009, 11:57 PM   #4
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

ATP Movistar Open

Calleri/Junqueira +188 (1)


PBZ Zagreb Indoors

Karanusic +274 o PHM (1)
Zovko +555 o Hanescu (1/2)
Troicki +103 o Bollelli (1)

GL all
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Old 02-03-2009, 02:50 AM   #5
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 24-14 (+$8874.00)

***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays

(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)

Alright so another tennis wager on Monday, another tennis wager loss. I sat out the rest of the day, re-evaluated my method and think I have my capping hat back on straight. CANT NOOOOOBODY HOLD ME DOWN, OH NO! I won on Arizona +6.5 in the Super Bowl and finished 9-2 ATS in the NFL Playoffs. BAM! LIVIN LARGE IS GOOD! Learn it. Like I said before, if you follow me all season, you make big money, that's a promise guys. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.

All my wagering is done at Pinnacle. All the best this season and if you have a problem with me or my style, LICK MY NUTS!

--------------------------------------




Tuesday, February 3



ATP Zagreb - Round of 32



Simone Bolelli 1.79 over Viktor Troicki ($2500 to win $1975)

Alright so Super Bol is my pick to get things back on track around here because I just don't see him losing this match. Not only has Bolelli beat this clown two times in the past but he has beat him on two surfaces that he is not all that good on (Carpet and Indoor Hard) so playing on this stuff again should not be a problem and I think he is going to kick some Serbian ass in this match. Bolelli has had plenty of time to get ready for this tournament seeing how he was bounced in the second round of the Australian Open and despite his exit there, he did beat Vliegen in the opening round and has shown that he is game ready by playing in two events before the Slam. Troicki got his ass served to him in the second round of the Australian Open with a blowout loss to Tommy Robredo in a match many (including myself) thought he could win. In essence he has looked like complete shit in 2009 and I don't trust him to regain form until much later on in the year. The last few times we saw Troicki on this surface he was in perfect form and that is why he managed to get some wins and up his record to 18-14 lifetime on the indoor hard surface but right now his form sucks and he cannot be trusted. Bolelli on the other hand has won 7 of his last 10 matches played on the indoor hard courts and he has already had experience on this stuff having played in the Hopman Cup event a few weeks ago. He gave James Blake a great run for his money in TMS Paris back in October and was actually a great first round bet in Indoor Hardcourt events late last year going 3-0 in his last three first round matches on this surface. I love his form here and he should win. He has beat this clown in the past, he is in better form and we are getting some really good odds here for him to win. BANK THIS BITCH BOLELLI RIGHT NOW PLEASE.





Jurgen Melzer 1.56 over Evgeny Korolev ($1500 to win $840)

I actually cannot believe I am backing Melzer this early on in the season but I just remembered that Davis Cup action is just around the corner and this piece of shit seems to play his best tennis when he has to prepare for big events. Having said that, the skill of these two players on this surface does not really compare and I don't understand these odds at all. Melzer is 1-0 lifetime versus Korolev and even though that match was played on outdoor hard courts, I still think the left handed moron has a much better chance of winning this match. I refuse to ever bet on Melzer when I don't think he is in form to win matches and he proved to me at the Australian Open that he is here to win. He beat both Beck and Nishikori in the first two rounds before being bounced by the impressive Andy Murray in straight sets. Not too bad I guess and he did beat Mardy Fish in ATP Brisbane earlier this year so watch out for this chump. Korolev on the other hand looked good in qualifying for the Australian Open but boy did he look like complete monkey shit in the main draw beating Carlos Moya but getting his ass whooped by Federer in the second round. He looked even worst in both Sydney and Brisbane where he lost in qualifying for both those tournaments. What a complete joke and he is lucky to be allowed in the main draw of this event. Korolev had success on this surface back in the day but since not playing on this stuff more than a few times in the last year I don't put anything into his chances here in this match. I mean how can you wager on a guy who is 0-3 on indoor hard courts since November of 2007 with all three losses coming against players ranked out of the TOP 60 players? Forget about it, I don't care what he did in the past, he is not playing at the same level right now. That's not to say Melzer is any better or trustworthy past the second round of this tournament he has played a bit more on this stuff than Korolev has and he did reach the quarter-finals of both indoor hardcourt he played in late in the 2008 seasons so believe me when I say this guy can play on this stuff. Korolev is not good on his feet and that's an even bigger problem when he goes up against left-handed players because the angles are bad for him. He is 3-7 in his last 10 matches versus guys who hit with their left-hand and this is a shitty matchup for him here. Don't even think of anything but Melzer winning.







ATP Johannesburg - Round of 32



Denis Istomin 1.41 over Santiago Ventura ($3000 to win $1230)

What the fuck are these crazy odds the linesmakers decided to give us for this match. I don't give a shit what anal hole Istomin crawled out of for this match but what I do know is that I am fading Ventura to the bank big time and that is something I had planned on doing before knowing who he would face in this tournament. Believe me he is a piece of shit and Ventura on hardcourts is like talking about a whale walking on the sidewalk...not gonna happen. I hate betting on guys ranked out of the TOP 100 players in the world but I just can't resist this wager and I am not missing out on these nice odds that fall into my range of betting. For those of you who didn't know, this match is played on the hardcourt surface and Istomin won a first round match at the Australian Open in straight sets against Vincent Spadea who believe me he knows a thing or two about winning on this surface. He did lose to Gasquet in the second round but that's not to bad and I have to also mention that he reached the second round of the ATP Chennai event earlier this season. He is a Challenger Tour player for life and I don't really care because this is my one and only wager on this motherfucker all year probably. He is a good challenger player having won 35 of his last 50 matches in tennis. Ventura is probably in South Africa to fuck hookers because other than that I don't get it. He failed to make the Main Draw of the Australian Open, losing in qualifying and prior to that he lost five straight matches and sucks balls on hard courts. THIS GUY IS ONLY A CLAY COURT PLAYER so what the fuck is he doing here anyways? Don't believe me? Ventura has won only 12 of his 33 lifetime matches on outdoor hard courts and he has lost 8 of his last 10. His only wins came in Australian Open qualifying where he beat guys who suck even more or who are ranked too low to even matter. As a matter of fact, his wins in Australia were the first since 2006 on this surface and Ventura again is here for no other reason than to collect a check for sure. Istomin despite being a Challenger player for life has at least won 66% of his career matches on this surface and his game will have Ventura wondering what the fuck he accomplished by showing up here instead of going to Chile. Unless this moron took the wrong flight out of Melbourne but other than that I don't get it and believe me I am going to make money fading him here. EASIEST MONEY IN A LONG TIME!!!





Marcel Granollers-Pujol 1.41 over Sebastien de Chaunac ($1000 to win $410)

Once again this is another great chance to fade a player I don't see winning and that player is the french fuckhead de Chaunac. First of all I can't stand his name and will never place a bet on this guy unless I have to (fading someone more horrendous than him). These two players have never met on the tennis courts and that doesn't surprise me. However, how can you not like the #51 player in the world to beat the #253 player in the world on a surface where neither guy really likes it and neither guy has proven in the past that they can win consistently? Nothing makes de Chaunac more comfortable on these courts than Granollers would be so the odds are very good and they won't get any better in this place so I am taking them while the oddsmakers offer them. What you have to understand here is that de Chaunac had to qualify to make this even and that was after going to the Australian Open, qualifying there and beating Steve Darcis (who obviously bet against himself) before losing to James Blake in the second round in straight sets. Before that the french guy had not played an ATP event since we last saw him in October at the Lyon even where he failed to make it out of the qualifiers. Who the hell let this baffoon into this tournament anyways? I just don't understand how these guys make it in? Pujol impressed me enough at the Australian Open despite getting blown out of his second round match against Andy Murray as he sent Gabashvili packing in the first round and did reach the semi-final of the ATP Chennai event to open his 2009 campaign. Not bad at all, he is a decent player who can win shitty matches like this one. I know some of you are going to have problems trusting a player that has won only 16 of his 43 lifetime matches on hard courts but believe me he is better than the frenchie and he proved in Chennai that he is a much better tennis player overall these days. de Chaunac does have experience playing on hard courts at the challenger level but his level of competition sucked donkey balls and if you don't believe me, all you have to know is that he lost to Thomas Zib in the first round of qualies at the 2008 US Open and that is as bad as it gets in this world of tennis. WOW WHAT THE HELL ARE ODDSMAKERS DOING? Time to cash in again on bad odds and stupid players.






ATP Vina Del Mar - Round of 32



Maximo Gonzalez 1.69 over Boris Pashanski ($1000 to win $690)

Hahaha what the hell is Boris doing here? I never hear from this idiot until the South American tournaments come rolling around and the reason I love hearing from him is because he is one of the best fades in tennis when it comes to playing against players who are better than him. I know Pashanski made me money years ago when he was tearing it up on the Challenger circuit but that was then and this is now. Pashanski is now ranked #172 and that must be sad for a guy who only three years ago was ranked #55 in the world and who has now really started the decline of his tennis career at only 26 years old. Maximo on the other hand is also a lifetime piece of crap but I see a huge edge for him in this match seeing how he demolished Pashanski on clay in 2005 when he was ranked #210 in the world and Pashanski was ranked #84 in the world at the time. We last saw Gonzalez in a challenger event here in Chile earlier in January and he actually won that even with quite ease. He lost in another Challenger event the week before but he has looked good in many of his matches on clay in recent months and believe it or not he is 9-1 in his last 10 matches overall so I think my money is going where he is going. Pashanski on the other hand played in those same tournaments but was bounced by a bunch of clowns and that was after going to Australia, losing in the first round of qualies there which was his first match of the 2009 season. Prior to that he lost a Challenger first round match on clay against Junqueira and believe me when I say Pashanski is not ready to beat much better players right now. Not here, not anywhere. He used to be a good bet in tournaments like this on clay courts but that was ages ago and over the last 12 months, he has won only 51% of his 59 matches played on clay courts. Gonzalez on the other hand has won 61% of his clay court matches the last 12 months and he has been impressive at times. He has been so impressive that I cannot believe we are getting these odds here and this is a steal in my mind, thats for sure. I don't see how Pashanski can last in this match, as Maximo is the better player, the better athlete and the man who has been playing on clay courts for a while and not fucking around trying to qualify for the Australian Open like Pashanski has. EASY FADE BABY!





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Old 02-03-2009, 03:21 AM   #6
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

Add:

Bellucci @1.70
over Brzezicki
K.Anderson @1.65 over I.Minar
Gil @1.63 over Koellerer
Stakhovsky @1.99 over Hrbaty

GL
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Old 02-03-2009, 03:47 AM   #7
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

Quote:
Originally Posted by KaiserT View Post
ZVEREV @ 2.94 Over Seppi
Massu at 2.00 Over Calleri

Zverev a bigger bet.

Slim pickings.
Adding Vliegen x Fognini @ 1.56 (big bet)

Fognini x Istomin x Gonzalez x Vliegen x Chardy x Hanescu mugtiple @ 5.17.
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Old 02-03-2009, 05:35 AM   #8
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

Add:

Istomin @1.41 over Ventura
Granollers @1.45 over De Chaunac

GL
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Old 02-03-2009, 05:40 AM   #9
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

Istomin @ 1.50 - yesterday
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Old 02-03-2009, 05:57 AM   #10
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

TROICKI over Bolelli @2.16, 3 units
SELA over Ferrer @2.81, 1 unit
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Old 02-03-2009, 07:17 AM   #11
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

Quote:
Originally Posted by danielj View Post
Gil over Koellerer @ 1.68

This is probably my favourite bet of the day, gil loves playing on hard and even won a challenger on hard back in august only dropping one set on his way to the title beating the likes of peya , muller and stahhovsky, koellerer only played one hard court match in 2008 and lost in straights.
Don't like this Daniel kid at all, why the hell is he playing on clay round the world for like a decade and now showed up in Johannesburg?
He has some wins over Nishikori, Ungur...even H2H 0:1 (on clay BUT..)

Have to play this one too..just have too!!
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Old 02-03-2009, 07:31 AM   #12
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday



Gil is an awful moonballer from the claycourts, everyone has their fluke events and we all know how crap Muller can be in challengers (he peaks only in Slams, knows where the money is) - he beat all the s&v players in that event. Koellerer isn't a s&v player, he is regular from the baseline and won't make a mistake in the 3rd shot like the mentioned ones certainly did.

I don't say he won't beat Dani and good luck with the bet (Dani is mental and predicting his matches is like predicting Gabashvili's matches, he also loves to retire "injured" when he's upset on court). I just made this post so people aren't mislead what type of players these two are.

Leans from our challenger are Giraldo over Pless and Kubot over Vik (Warburg over Romanowski is too obvious LOL). Ionita will have a shot against Snobel if he is not tired.
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Old 02-03-2009, 07:39 AM   #13
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

surprised no one is on petzschner
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Old 02-03-2009, 07:45 AM   #14
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nathaliia View Post


Gil is an awful moonballer from the claycourts, everyone has their fluke events and we all know how crap Muller can be in challengers (he peaks only in Slams, knows where the money is) - he beat all the s&v players in that event. Koellerer isn't a s&v player, he is regular from the baseline and won't make a mistake in the 3rd shot like the mentioned ones certainly did.

I don't say he won't beat Dani and good luck with the bet (Dani is mental and predicting his matches is like predicting Gabashvili's matches, he also loves to retire "injured" when he's upset on court). I just made this post so people aren't mislead what type of players these two are.

Leans from our challenger are Giraldo over Pless and Kubot over Vik (Warburg over Romanowski is too obvious LOL). Ionita will have a shot against Snobel if he is not tired.
He is a moonballer? Superb..I will go for him..its fashion now that moonbeis know how to play on hard..

Simone (WTF is with player's names these days) ove Troicki @1,78
(1st match of the day = 1st play of the day)
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Old 02-03-2009, 07:59 AM   #15
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Default Re: Tempting Tuesday

Hangover after the AO? Lets see how my first venture goes ( a little different than danielj's )

BOLELLI tb TROICKI @ 1,75
Troicki did not look 100% in the AO and I think he's going through a bad spell. Bolelli has more quality.
CHARDY, ANCIC, GRANOLLERS treble @ 1,95
CHIUNDINELLI tb CIPOLLA @ 2,05
2 risky ones ( hence smaller stakes ): KOROLEV tb MELZER @ 2.70
As unpredictable as Korolev is, I never trust Melzer to do the job against such opponents at such odds.
TURSUNOV tb GULBIS @ 2.34 This is even riskier but Tursunov had enough matches in the qualifying to say with confidence he's had the match practice he was looking for, so a Russian at 2.34 is fine to me ( as long as it's not somebody like Andreev @ 1.12 )
I also think that Sela can do something against Ferru ( not that iron anymore ). He did showcase it in Beijing where an off-form Ferrer lost comfortably to him in one of the biggest shockers of the tournaments but it won't be much of a shocker if it happens again. However I'm not sure what kind of Ferrer will step onto the court so I'm opting for a normal lay of the 1.54 to trade at the exchange rather than an outright win for Sela.


Good luck to myself, need to recover my morale after the debacle of the Fedmug, and these risky matches may be what the doc ordered
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