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Old 10-21-2008, 08:41 PM   #331
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
He'd better concentrate very hard on nailing the Lyon title then..
Pretty much. He apparently mentioned paris in his post-match presser today, so maybe he is planning to play. But I'm not holding my breath.

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
I'll wait until R1 is out of the way before updating the Race standings...got a stinking cold at the moment.
Feel better
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Old 10-21-2008, 11:23 PM   #332
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
He'd better concentrate very hard on nailing the Lyon title then...




A little bit of an overstatement mate.


I'll wait until R1 is out of the way before updating the Race standings...got a stinking cold at the moment.
Sorry for the cold . And Lyon would barely gice him points. I'd rather see him losing early there and reaching QF in Paris.
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Old 10-23-2008, 05:52 PM   #333
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Cold is much better Debs and Fonzo, thanks.

The only two "important" things to note from today's results: (1) Del Potro has now moved up to #7, pushing Ferrer down to #8. (2) Simon has added 1 sole point to his total, but, more importantly, could add a further 9pts should he beat Ouanna tomorrow (expected, if he has the energy left ), which would enable him to snatch #8 off Ferrer.


Re: Roddick...doesn't matter too much if he loses before the final in Lyon, provided that Blake doesn't rip through the Basel draw. On the evidence of some of his tennis I saw today, that looks highly unlikely. A-Rod should go into Paris with at least a 31pts cushion, with a R2 win pretty much condemning the players outside the top 8 (they'd need to make the final).
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Old 10-23-2008, 07:30 PM   #334
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

nalbo update?
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Old 10-23-2008, 08:02 PM   #335
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tzar View Post
nalbo update?
I make him lying about 17th
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Old 10-23-2008, 08:37 PM   #336
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by Tzar View Post
nalbo update?
Everyone's points are updated in the 1st post. Did you look there?
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Old 10-24-2008, 07:12 AM   #337
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

yes but i mean does he haves any chances to qualify
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Old 10-24-2008, 07:44 AM   #338
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tzar View Post
nalbo update?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tzar View Post
yes but i mean does he haves any chances to qualify
I'll try to mathematically look at his chances:

If Nalbandian wins every match he has remaining, Paris and Basel,. he would be on 390 points, which would likely put him in.

A Paris win and a final in Basel would leave him on 375, while a Paris final and win in Basel would leave him on 360, a very close shave that would be very dependent on the exact progress of other players, but he would a decent chance, especially if the current top 5-6 play well and seal up points in Paris.

Just making the two finals, or making the Paris final and losing before the final in Basel would leave him around 350-335, likely a losing proposition if two of Blake, Simon or Ferrer manage even one or two more wins the remainder of the season.

Anything less than Paris final gives him no mathematical chance.

So to pull out a top-8 spot, he will likely not be able to lose again this season, and if so, only in a final.
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Old 10-24-2008, 03:40 PM   #339
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Congratulations Gilles Simon...#8 in the Race, to cap off a miserable week for Ferrer, who has slipped 2 places from #7. Elsewhere, Del Potro has now moved within 15pts of Roddick, at #6, and can take 13pts out of that gap if he beats Nalbandian, tomorrow...Nalbandian has continued his steady progress up the standings, and is now up to #16...and could Soderling be on course for a long overdue top 20 Entry ranking, and possibly a year-end ranking within this bracket of fine players? Now up to #19, with a good shot at the Lyon title.
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Old 10-25-2008, 12:51 AM   #340
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Bad draw for Pics in Paris. I doubt in current form he is able to beat Kohlschreiber or Youzhny.
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Old 10-25-2008, 12:59 AM   #341
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

What exactly A-rod has to do in order to seal his spot at shanghai? would a 3rd rnd performance still make him among top 8??
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Old 10-25-2008, 01:14 AM   #342
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by mashamaniac View Post
What exactly A-rod has to do in order to seal his spot at shanghai? would a 3rd rnd performance still make him among top 8??
At this point, it doesn't really matter all that much what Roddick does, he'll be hard to catch even if he didn't play. To be out, Del Potro must pass him, which is possible, but also two of Simon semi, Ferrer semi, Blake final, Wawrinka final, Gonzalez win, Tsonga win, or (maybe) Verdasco win or Nalbandian win. That's with Roddick not even playing.

Realistically, he's safe enough that there is little difference between not playing and a third round. It would mathematically clinch it, if it's not already clinched by others going out.

Last edited by Blarghman : 10-25-2008 at 01:15 AM. Reason: correction
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Old 10-25-2008, 01:14 AM   #343
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

It looks like it will be between Simon and Ferrer for the last TMC spot, it would be a surprise for Del Potro not to qualify (though by no means impossible). From those in the back that have mathematical chances, I guess Tsonga and Nalbandian have the best chance of a very deep run in Paris.
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Old 10-25-2008, 02:52 PM   #344
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Spend 3 days calculating all the options:

W-W means; Winning this week and the next week in Paris
Del Potro: R-*, S-3 -> Means: if he is Runner up this week, next week doesnt matter, if he falls in the semis, then he needs to make last R3 next week

Soderling:
W-W: (358): not 2 of:
Ferrer: QF Paris
Del Potro: R-*, S-3
Simon: R-*, S-Q
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Verdasco: W-R
Nalbandian: W-R
--
R-W: (344): not 1 of:
Ferrer: 3R Paris
Simon: R-*, S-3
Wawrinka: SF Paris
Tsonga: W-S
Verdasco: W-R, R-R
Nalbandian: W-R, R-R



Andreev:
Win Paris: (342): not 1 of:
Ferrer: 3R Paris
Blake: SF Paris
Wawrinka: SF Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-R
Nalbandian: W-R, R-R



Nalbandian:
W-W: (390): not 3 of:
Roddick: QF Paris
Ferrer: RU Paris
Simon: W-Q, R-S, S-R
--
R-W: (375): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Ferrer: SF Paris
Simon: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Blake: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R
--
S-W: (362): not 2 of:
Ferrer: QF Paris
Del Potro: R-*, S-3
Simon: W-*, R-3, S-Q
Blake: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R
--
W-R: (360): not 2 of:
Ferrer: QF Paris
Simon: W-*, R-3, S-Q
Blake: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-W, R-W, S-W
--
R-R: (345): not 1 of:
Ferrer: 3R Paris
Simon: R-*, S-3
Blake: SF Paris
Wawrinka: SF Paris
Tsonga: W-S, R-S, S-W
Soderling: W-W



Verdasco:
W-W: (396): not 3 of:
Roddick: SF Paris
Ferrer: RU Paris
Del Potro: W-3
Simon: W-S, R-S, S-R
--
R-W: (381): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Ferrer: SF Paris
Del Potro: W-*, R-3
Simon: W-Q, R-S, S-S
Tsonga: W-R
--
S-W: (368): not 2 of:
Ferrer: SF Paris
Del Potro: W-*, R-3, S-3
Simon: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Blake: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R
--
W-R: (366): not 2 of:
Ferrer: SF Paris
Del Potro: R-*, S-3
Simon: W-1, R-3, S-S
Blake: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-W, R-W, S-W
--
R-R: (351): not 1 of:
Ferrer: 3R Paris
Simon: R-*, S-3
Blake: SF Paris
Tsonga: W-S, R-W, S-W
Soderling: W-W
--
W-S: (341): not 1 of:
Ferrer: 3R Paris
Simon: R-*, S-1
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R, S-R
Monfils: Win Paris
Andreev: Win Paris
Soderling: W-W, R-W



Monfils:
Win Paris: (364): not 2 of:
Ferrer: SF Paris
Del Potro: R-*, S-3
Simon: W-*, R-3, S-Q
Blake: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R



Tsonga:
W-W: (415): Secured
--
R-W: (401): Secured
--
S-W: (390): not 3 of:
Roddick: QF Paris
Del Potro: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Simon: W-Q
--
W-R: (385): not 2 of:
Roddick: QF Paris
Del Potro: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-W
Nalbandian: W-W
--
R-R: (371): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Ferrer: SF Paris
Del Potro: W-*, R-3, S-Q
Simon: W-3, R-Q
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-W, R-W
Nalbandian: W-W, R-W
--
S-R: (360): not 2 of:
Ferrer: QF Paris
Del Potro: R-*, S-3
Simon: W-*, R-3, S-Q
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-W, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-W, R-W, S-W
--
W-S: (360): not 2 of:
Ferrer: QF Paris
Del Potro: R-*, S-3
Simon: R-3, S-Q
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-W, R-W, S-W
--
R-S: (346): not 1 of:
Ferrer: 3R Paris
Simon: R-*, S-3
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-R, S-W
Nalbandian: W-R, R-W, S-W
Soderling: W-W



Wawrinka:
Win Paris: (401): not 3 of:
Roddick: SF Paris
Ferrer: RU Paris
Del Potro: W-Q, R-S
Simon: W-S, R-R, S-R
--
RU Paris: (371): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Ferrer: SF Paris
Del Potro: W-*, R-3, S-Q
Simon: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Blake: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-W, R-W, S-W
--
SF Paris: (346): not 1 of:
Ferrer: 3R Paris
Simon: R-*, S-3
Blake: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R, S-R
Verdasco: W-R, R-R, S-W
Nalbandian: W-R, R-W, S-W
Soderling: W-W



Blake:
Win Paris: (410): not 3 of:
Roddick: SF Paris
Del Potro: W-S, R-S, S-R
Simon: W-S
--
RU Paris: (380): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Del Potro: W-*, R-3, S-S
Simon: W-3, R-S, S-S
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-W, R-W
Nalbandian: W-W
--
SF Paris: (355): not 2 of:
Del Potro: R-*, S-3
Simon: W-*, R-3, S-3
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-S, R-R, S-R
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-R, R-W, S-W



Simon:
W-W: (466): Secured
--
R-W: (452): Secured
--
S-W: (441): Secured
--
W-R: (436): Secured
--
R-R: (422): Secured
--
W-S: (411): Secured
--
S-R: (411): Secured
--
R-S: (397): not 3 of:
Del Potro: W-Q, R-S, S-S
Ferrer: RU Paris
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
--
W-Q: (391): not 3 of:
Del Potro: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Ferrer: RU Paris
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: R-W
Verdasco: W-W
--
S-S: (386): not 3 of:
Del Potro: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Ferrer: RU Paris
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-W
Nalbandian: W-W
--
W-3: (381): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Del Potro: W-*, R-3, S-S
Ferrer: SF Paris
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: R-W, S-W
Verdasco: W-W
Nalbandian: W-W
--
R-Q: (377): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Del Potro: W-*, R-3, S-Q
Ferrer: SF Paris
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-W, S-W
Verdasco: W-W, R-W
Nalbandian: W-W
--
W-1: (367): not 2 of:
Del Potro: W-*, R-1, S-3
Ferrer: SF Paris
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: R-R, S-W
Verdasco: W-W, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-W, R-W
--
R-3: (367): not 2 of:
Del Potro: W-*, R-1, S-3
Ferrer: SF Paris
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R, S-W
Verdasco: W-W, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-W, R-W
--
W-0: (366): not 2 of:
Del Potro: R-*, S-3
Ferrer: SF Paris
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: R-R, S-W
Verdasco: W-W, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-W, R-W
--
S-Q: (366): not 2 of:
Del Potro: R-*, S-3
Ferrer: SF Paris
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R, S-W
Verdasco: W-W, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-W, R-W
--
S-3: (356): not 2 of:
Del Potro: R-*, S-3
Ferrer: QF Paris
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-S, R-R, S-R
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-R, R-W, S-W
Soderling: W-W
--
R-1: (353): not 1 of:
Ferrer: QF Paris
Blake: SF Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-S, R-R, S-R
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-R, R-W, S-W
--
R-0: (352): not 1 of:
Ferrer: 3R Paris
Blake: SF Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-S, R-R, S-R
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-R, R-W, S-W
--
S-1: (342): not 1 of:
Ferrer: 3R Paris
Blake: SF Paris
Wawrinka: SF Paris
Tsonga: W-S, R-S, S-R
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-R, S-W
Nalbandian: W-R, R-R, S-W
Soderling: W-W, R-W
--
S-0: (341): not 1 of:
Ferrer: 3R Paris
Blake: SF Paris
Wawrinka: SF Paris
Tsonga: W-S, R-S, S-R
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-R, S-W
Nalbandian: W-R, R-R, S-W
Andreev: Win Paris
Soderling: W-W, R-W



Ferrer:
Win Paris: (438): Secured
--
RU Paris: (408): Secured
--
SF Paris: (383): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Del Potro: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Simon: W-Q, R-S, S-S
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-W, S-W
Verdasco: W-W
Nalbandian: W-W
--
QF Paris: (363): not 2 of:
Del Potro: R-*, S-3
Simon: W-*, R-3, S-Q
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R, S-W
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-W, R-W
--
3R Paris: (353): not 1 of:
Simon: W-*, R-3, S-3
Blake: SF Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-S, R-R, S-R
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-R, R-W, S-W
Soderling: W-W



Del Potro:
W-W: (482): Secured
--
R-W: (467): Secured
--
S-W: (454): Secured
--
W-R: (452): Secured
--
R-R: (437): Secured
--
W-S: (427): Secured
--
S-R: (424): Secured
--
R-S: (412): Secured
--
W-Q: (407): Secured
--
S-S: (399): not 3 of:
Roddick: SF Paris
Ferrer: RU Paris
Simon: W-S, R-R, S-S
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-W, R-W
--
W-3: (397): not 3 of:
Roddick: SF Paris
Ferrer: RU Paris
Simon: W-S, R-R, S-R
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-W, R-W
--
R-Q: (392): not 3 of:
Roddick: QF Paris
Ferrer: RU Paris
Simon: W-S, R-S, S-R
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-W, R-W
Verdasco: W-W
--
W-1: (383): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Ferrer: RU Paris
Simon: W-Q, R-S, S-S
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-W, S-W
Verdasco: W-W
--
W-0: (382): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Ferrer: SF Paris
Simon: W-Q, R-S, S-S
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-W, S-W
Verdasco: W-W
--
R-3: (382): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Ferrer: SF Paris
Simon: W-Q, R-S, S-S
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-W, S-W
Verdasco: W-W
--
S-Q: (379): not 3 of:
Roddick: 3R Paris
Ferrer: SF Paris
Simon: W-3, R-S, S-S
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-W, S-W
Verdasco: W-W, R-W
--
S-3: (369): not 3 of:
Roddick: 1R Paris
Ferrer: SF Paris
Simon: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R, S-W
Verdasco: W-W, R-W
Nalbandian: W-W, R-W
--
R-1: (368): not 2 of:
Ferrer: SF Paris
Simon: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R, S-W
Verdasco: W-W, R-W
--
R-0: (367): not 2 of:
Ferrer: SF Paris
Simon: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R, S-W
Verdasco: W-W, R-W, S-W
--
S-1: (355): not 2 of:
Ferrer: QF Paris
Simon: W-*, R-3, S-3
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-S, R-R, S-R
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-R, R-W, S-W
Soderling: W-W
--
S-0: (354): not 2 of:
Ferrer: QF Paris
Simon: W-*, R-3, S-3
Blake: SF Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-S, R-R, S-R
Monfils: Win Paris
Verdasco: W-R, R-W, S-W
Nalbandian: W-R, R-W, S-W
Soderling: W-W



Roddick:
Win Paris: (469): Secured
--
RU Paris: (439): Secured
--
SF Paris: (414): Secured
--
QF Paris: (394): not 3 of:
Del Potro: W-3, R-S, S-S
Ferrer: RU Paris
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-W, R-W
Verdasco: W-W
--
3R Paris: (384): not 3 of:
Del Potro: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Ferrer: RU Paris
Simon: W-Q, R-S, S-S
Blake: Win Paris
Wawrinka: Win Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-W, S-W
Verdasco: W-W
Nalbandian: W-W
--
1R Paris: (370): not 3 of:
Del Potro: W-*, R-3, S-Q
Ferrer: SF Paris
Simon: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R, S-W
Verdasco: W-W, R-W
Nalbandian: W-W, R-W
--
Not Playing Paris: (369): not 3 of:
Del Potro: W-*, R-3, S-Q
Ferrer: SF Paris
Simon: W-3, R-Q, S-S
Blake: RU Paris
Wawrinka: RU Paris
Tsonga: W-R, R-R, S-W
Verdasco: W-W, R-W
Nalbandian: W-W, R-W

Davydenko: Secured
Murray: Secured
Djokovic: Secured
Federer: Secured
Nadal: Secured
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Old 10-25-2008, 07:13 PM   #345
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Wow, that must have taken you an awfully long time. Thank you, impressive stuff Of course, a lot of these already can't happen. like if some players need "not three of the following" - obviously, for example, both Blake and Wawrinka can't win/RU in Paris, etc. and now that del potro lost in the semis and the Paris draw is out (meaning Blake/Ferrer meet in r3 and Nalbandian/Del Potro do too), it changes it a bit, but still really informative
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