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Old 10-20-2008, 02:20 PM   #316
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by Månu View Post
I think it's pretty safe to say Roddick will make it as well... the final two seats will be the hardest fought. I hope Del Potro and Simon take them over Ferrer who has been collapsing during the indoor season.
He's not that safe. He needs SF or more in Lyon to gain points. Simon, Ferrer and Del Potro could pass him.
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Old 10-20-2008, 02:45 PM   #317
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by alfonsojose View Post
He's not that safe. He needs SF or more in Lyon to gain points. Simon, Ferrer and Del Potro could pass him.
He's more than 30 points over the three of them. For him to be passed by the three, it would require that he fails miserably in Paris and that the rest have great runs, with the actual form of David Ferrer that would be a big surprise!
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Old 10-20-2008, 06:51 PM   #318
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

20th - 26th October 2008.

(4/5 weeks to the end of the regular season).


This week: Lyon (45pts), Basel and St. Petersburg (50pts)


Profiling the players with at least an outside shot of a Shanghai place (bar = 100pts from #8):

(+38) Andy Roddick (USA): LYON - needs F to make any points gain (+9, to max. +23)
(+7) David Ferrer (ESP): not playing
(+6) Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG): BASEL - needs QF to make any points gain (+7, to max. +45)
....................
(-6) Gilles Simon (FRA): LYON - needs QF to make any points gain (+1, to max. +35)
(-27) James Blake (USA): BASEL - needs SF to make any points gain (+7, to max. +35)
(-36) Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI): BASEL - needs R2 to make any points gain (+2, to max. +47)
(-53) Fernando Gonzalez (CHI): not playing
(-67) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA): LYON - can add max. +45pts to his total
(-73) Gael Monfils (FRA): not playing
(-79) Fernando Verdasco (ESP): ST. PETERSBURG - needs SF to make any points gain (+10, to max. +38)
(-83) Nicolas Almagro (ESP): not playing
(-87pts) David Nalbandian (ARG): BASEL - needs QF to make any points gain (+2, to max. +40)
(-97) Igor Andreev (RUS): BASEL - needs QF to make any points gain (+2, to max. +40)

Last edited by El Burro : 10-20-2008 at 06:58 PM.
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Old 10-20-2008, 07:12 PM   #319
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by Månu View Post
He's more than 30 points over the three of them. For him to be passed by the three, it would require that he fails miserably in Paris and that the rest have great runs, with the actual form of David Ferrer that would be a big surprise!
Yep, totally agree. A very slim chance that Roddick doesn't make it to Shanghai, especially when you consider that he will probably make at least R3 in Paris (barring an unfortunate draw), while certainly Ferrer (and maybe Simon, Blake etc) could fall earlier than that.
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Old 10-20-2008, 07:18 PM   #320
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

At this rate we'll have only 1 "realistic" outside contender for top 8 going into Paris...Simon. Stan is the first of the 7 outside contenders (in action this week) I have highlighted above to exit his tournament, in R1 no less.

If you want excitement, you need to hope that Blake gets as close to the Basel title as possible...in fact, it is likely he will make at most the minimum points gain (+7), with Federer his potential SF opponent.
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Old 10-20-2008, 07:32 PM   #321
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Why does Murray and Delpo have "0 pointer included as one of optionals"? I understand that it may be for late withdrawal, but there are so many other players who made the same in this season, so what did they do diffrent that they have something like that?
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Old 10-20-2008, 07:36 PM   #322
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by shawshank View Post
Why does Murray and Delpo have "0 pointer included as one of optionals"? I understand that it may be for late withdrawal, but there are so many other players who made the same in this season, so what did they do diffrent that they have something like that?
I think a 0-pointer in the optionals is awarded for 2 late withdrawals in a season. Steveg has the following list of twice-withdrawals:

Hyung-Taik Lee
Sebastien Grosjean x 2 (so three late withdrawls)
Stefan Koubek
Juan Martin del Potro
Andy Murray
Samuel Querrey
Mardy Fish

This is not the same as a 0-pointer for not attending a TMS or Grand Slam event, something many players have.

Last edited by Blarghman : 10-20-2008 at 07:37 PM. Reason: quick fix
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Old 10-20-2008, 07:36 PM   #323
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Anyway, Delpo played in 18 tournaments and he has 0 for Adelaide, so he still has only 17 countable tournaments. Shouldn't his "best 5th" countable result be 0 and not 5?
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Old 10-20-2008, 07:39 PM   #324
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by shawshank View Post
Anyway, Delpo played in 18 tournaments and he has 0 for Adelaide, so he still has only 17 countable tournaments. Shouldn't his "best 5th" countable result be 0 and not 5?
No because since he has 2 late withdrawals, the 0 is essentially mandatory. It cannot be dropped, no matter how many tournaments he plays, until the second withdrawal drops off his rankings (I'm not entirely sure about the drop date for the 0, it may be from the first withdrawal).

In terms of the race, rather than the rankings, if you pick up a 0 for two withdrawals, you are stuck with it, and cannot replace it.

Last edited by Blarghman : 10-20-2008 at 07:41 PM. Reason: Added some clarification.
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Old 10-20-2008, 07:47 PM   #325
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by Blarghman View Post
No because since he has 2 late withdrawals, the 0 is essentially mandatory. It cannot be dropped, no matter how many tournaments he plays, until the second withdrawal drops off his rankings (I'm not entirely sure about the drop date for the 0, it may be from the first withdrawal).

In terms of the race, rather than the rankings, if you pick up a 0 for two withdrawals, you are stuck with it, and cannot replace it.
That sounds reasonable, but I still think there is a mistake on a ATP Profile of Delpo, because Adelaide should be writen down not in "Non-Countable Tournaments" but in "Best of other countable tournaments". Otherwise it looks like he still can play one more torunament and count all the points he will gain.
Thanks anyway
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Old 10-20-2008, 07:49 PM   #326
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by shawshank View Post
That sounds reasonable, but I still think there is a mistake on a ATP Profile of Delpo, because Adelaide should be writen down not in "Non-Countable Tournaments" but in "Best of other countable tournaments". Otherwise it looks like he still can play one more torunament and count all the points he will gain.
Thanks anyway
Sorry I didn't really get your question, I think. Del Potro can play one more tournament without dropping any points, the Paris Masters. It is not listed yet, but it will complete his 18. The profile assumes that the player will enter all TMS events they are eligible for, and holds an empty place for them. If you look at other players that will qualify like Nadal and Djokovic, they also only have 17 listed now, but will add Paris.

Last edited by Blarghman : 10-20-2008 at 07:52 PM. Reason: fixing stuff
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Old 10-20-2008, 08:09 PM   #327
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blarghman View Post
Sorry I didn't really get your question, I think. Del Potro can play one more tournament without dropping any points, the Paris Masters. It is not listed yet, but it will complete his 18. The profile assumes that the player will enter all TMS events they are eligible for, and holds an empty place for them. If you look at other players that will qualify like Nadal and Djokovic, they also only have 17 listed now, but will add Paris.
Now, everything is clear Thanks!
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Old 10-21-2008, 12:03 AM   #328
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
Yep, totally agree. A very slim chance that Roddick doesn't make it to Shanghai, especially when you consider that he will probably make at least R3 in Paris (barring an unfortunate draw), while certainly Ferrer (and maybe Simon, Blake etc) could fall earlier than that.
if he plays Paris at all.............
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Old 10-21-2008, 03:16 AM   #329
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by Månu View Post
He's more than 30 points over the three of them. For him to be passed by the three, it would require that he fails miserably in Paris and that the rest have great runs, with the actual form of David Ferrer that would be a big surprise!
These days, anyone but Robredo can beat him.
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Old 10-21-2008, 08:01 PM   #330
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Default Re: ATP Champions Race to Shanghai 2008

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Originally Posted by Deboogle!. View Post
if he plays Paris at all.............
He'd better concentrate very hard on nailing the Lyon title then...


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Originally Posted by alfonsojose View Post
These days, anyone but Robredo can beat him.
A little bit of an overstatement mate.


I'll wait until R1 is out of the way before updating the Race standings...got a stinking cold at the moment.
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