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Old 07-29-2008, 10:36 PM   #46
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Default Re: betting-job

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
Just a(n enjoyable) hobby for me...wouldn't be good enough to "turn pro" even if I wanted to, and I don't. Plenty of challenges in the business world to be getting on with, with any luck.
Thats a great attitude- even if i did think i was really good at it ( which i dont) i cant imagine the stress that would come with doing it knowing i need winners to pay a mortgage,bills etc etc... the fun would go out of it then knowing i need atleast a winner a day or more.. Maybe if i was single still living at home with no daughter and partner i could give it a go but no way when i have to afford so many other things...
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Old 08-21-2008, 05:46 AM   #47
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Default Re: betting-job

Article :


Do you have what it takes to be a pro gambler?


This article is in particular for people who wonder whether you yourself, or someone you know can make a living off the income from sports betting.
I have been a semi or fully professional sports gambler for 14 years. Its been a long and early on especially a bumpy ride. Starting out for the first 5 years nearly everyone doubted me succeeding. To be fair those first 5 years or so, were when most of my mistakes where made.
Ahead to today and my capping methods are now at a point where it takes me far less time to cap my card for the day than what it used to. My results are as good as ever and some of those same people who doubted me initially, now never question my success or not. They know I grind out profits year after year. Yes I have losing weeks, but in the long term I come out ahead. One of the best things I like about my life I live, is being able to have the freedom to do what I want when I want and no boss telling me what to do.


Below is a checklist :


*You need the discipline to stick to your capping methods for all bets and never force a bet.

*Many years of experience in the game. That has taught you to never to chase and bet a too high a % of your bankroll.

*Capping methods that produce a proven long term record of profit. A big enough bankroll so that yearly average R.O.I. (return on investment) is enough to live on.

*Do you take to sports gambling like a duck takes to water? In other words do you grasp sports betting terms and meanings and concepts easily? or do you often have to go over them many times before you understand.

*Passion for sports betting. Without this your longevity won't cut it.


If you answered yes to all those questions you are a rare breed and have a legitimate shot. On the other hand If you answered no to any of the above, I'm afraid the reality is you are unlikely to make it. Harsh it may sound, but that is the reality.
The ratio of those who can make it is estimated to be around 1-2%. To this day everyone I have talked to who has shown an interest, I have advised them NOT to try and live off the income of sportsbetting. If I ever meet and have a conversation to the exceptional person who I believe can make it, I will tell them so, but as I say I'm yet to go there.

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Old 08-21-2008, 05:48 AM   #48
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Default Re: betting-job

Quote:
Originally Posted by ryan23 View Post
Thats a great attitude- even if i did think i was really good at it ( which i dont) i cant imagine the stress that would come with doing it knowing i need winners to pay a mortgage,bills etc etc... the fun would go out of it then knowing i need atleast a winner a day or more.. Maybe if i was single still living at home with no daughter and partner i could give it a go but no way when i have to afford so many other things...
If you are good enough (and that is the whole key) the stress isn't much of an issue.
Also not to overdo it. Take time to unwind. Eat right, enough exercise, sunshine etc.

Last edited by dave nz : 08-21-2008 at 06:13 AM.
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Old 08-21-2008, 06:43 AM   #49
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Default Re: betting-job

Good read.

Quote:
*You need the discipline to stick to your capping methods for all bets and never force a bet.
Thats pretty much my problem sometimes. I bet on too many games a day. If i stuck to just 2 or 3, i'd probably have a better profit.

It sounds so simple and yet, we or i constantly make silly mistakes.
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Old 08-21-2008, 06:48 AM   #50
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Default Re: betting-job

I don't think it can be done. Take a look at the Wednesday tennis picks and the 90% of them were losers ( Karlovic, Melzer, Ginepri, Hanescu, Minar, etc ). And that happens most of the time.
Now I'd like to know about these other methods where you can reliably increase your bank without having to pick winners and get a liability on your bank in the first place? When people picked Karlovic they had to risk more than 5 times their stake for 1 part of profit. Picking underdogs doesn't seem to work either. You can study a match all you like and be 100% sure that it's a winner and it can still lose.
The very idea that you can use that as a reliable income to replace a job is ludicrous. It's gambling, you risk your money everytime you place a bet, so what are those trusted capping methods that work everytime?
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Old 08-21-2008, 06:51 AM   #51
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Default Re: betting-job

Betting Tennis is the quickest way to the poor house, no shit GSM.
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Old 08-22-2008, 10:43 PM   #52
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Default Re: betting-job

Quote:
Originally Posted by dave nz View Post
If you are good enough (and that is the whole key) the stress isn't much of an issue.
Also not to overdo it. Take time to unwind. Eat right, enough exercise, sunshine etc.
You make some good points buddy but 1 problem the sun never fu**ing shines here its England lol
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Old 08-22-2008, 10:46 PM   #53
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Default Re: betting-job

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Originally Posted by nastoff View Post
I don't think it can be done. Take a look at the Wednesday tennis picks and the 90% of them were losers ( Karlovic, Melzer, Ginepri, Hanescu, Minar, etc ). And that happens most of the time.
Now I'd like to know about these other methods where you can reliably increase your bank without having to pick winners and get a liability on your bank in the first place? When people picked Karlovic they had to risk more than 5 times their stake for 1 part of profit. Picking underdogs doesn't seem to work either. You can study a match all you like and be 100% sure that it's a winner and it can still lose.
The very idea that you can use that as a reliable income to replace a job is ludicrous. It's gambling, you risk your money everytime you place a bet, so what are those trusted capping methods that work everytime?
You need to remember that the week before any GS is the most difficult- the bigger the event the more reliable the matches ive found

what i dont get is these so called professionsals betting big money on tennis players when they have no live pictures- how can you tell how your pick is doing by a shitty sb- we all know stats on a sb can look deceiving, btw i'm not saying anyone on this board is doing this but theres are people out their e.g betfair forum that are betting big money on matches when they havent seen any matches of a certain tournament-we all know that most players have 2 sides the likes of Verdasco,Fish,Ginepri,Blake and many many more are capable of ebating decent players but are also capable of horrible loses and going out in round 1-

Some Tennis results are getting so strange that the only way to win consistently is to bet in running once youve seen wtf is going on
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Old 08-23-2008, 12:28 AM   #54
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Default Re: betting-job

Quote:
Originally Posted by nastoff View Post
I don't think it can be done. Take a look at the Wednesday tennis picks and the 90% of them were losers ( Karlovic, Melzer, Ginepri, Hanescu, Minar, etc ). And that happens most of the time.
Now I'd like to know about these other methods where you can reliably increase your bank without having to pick winners and get a liability on your bank in the first place? When people picked Karlovic they had to risk more than 5 times their stake for 1 part of profit. Picking underdogs doesn't seem to work either. You can study a match all you like and be 100% sure that it's a winner and it can still lose.
The very idea that you can use that as a reliable income to replace a job is ludicrous. It's gambling, you risk your money everytime you place a bet, so what are those trusted capping methods that work everytime?
You're really coming at this the wrong way and to say "it can't be done" is just plain wrong. For a few years I was doing it, before I lost my discipline, and work with and around people who have done it and are still doing it. Those who stopped did so because they came into positions that enabled to earn a very good living at less risk, but still in the gaming industry.

People who are good at capping their sport and sensible with their stakes are the people who have "trusted capping methods that work everytime". And if by "everytime" you meant every bet, then that's not what I meant. I'm talking on an annual basis.

Using some random week in the tennis world involving some very topsy turvy players to claim that it's too difficult is ludicrous. And you go on to say picking dogs doesn't work either! So picking favs and dogs is no good you say? lol. Well one or the other has to win, mate, even if you were just taking a stab in the dark.

People do do it, and as Dave said, the general consensus is that the % is two percent. So yes, for many, many people it is not a viable career choice, even if they actually know their sport well - as if they don't keep to all the other disciplines, they will fall. I can speak of that from personal reckless experience.

And when you say "be 100% sure it is a winner" is just something professionals don't deal in. A professional asseses match up and price and bets accordingly, they don't "know" for certain it will be a winner, but they are backing their judgement against the books and if they are as good as they need to be then they can and will make a living out of it over the long haul.

That doesn't mean a life of luxury, for some it may, but not all. Depends just what the stakes are, and there are professionals in all of the major sports, including tennis. There isn't a sport that is "easy" to cap and there isn't one that is just too difficult for anyone to achieve. Personally I always thought NBA or MLB were the hardest to conquer because of the day in, day out battles and the varying factors such as pitcher, but I ended up meeting people who capped those sports for a living successfully and in turn they couldn't understand how to conquer sports I was working on.

No sport is uncappable, but it takes a certain kind of person and quality to do it over a prolonged period. There aren't many of those around and that's why there are bookmakers in the first place. Alot easier to be a bookie than to be a bookie basher. Having played both sides of the fence, again I can speak with experience.

More challenging to be a bookie basher, but more rewarding to be on the book's side than not.
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Old 08-23-2008, 10:33 AM   #55
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Default Re: betting-job

jayjay, I hear you, that's why I formulated my initial statement as an opinion (I think) rather than a fact - I didn't categorically say that it can't be done over a prolonged period of time but I have serious doubts it can be done..
The starting premise is that you're trying to find value pre-match betting in, say, a sport like tennis where the favourites are usually extremely low on the odds. The fastest way of securing profit from this type of betting is by picking winners consistently. If you follow a strategy of picking, say, all favourites you might end up getting a 10%-20% increase of your bank throughout the course of a season; which is hardly a profit you can use as a regular income. Then the issue of discipline could play an enormous part - what happens when you have a period of "drought" where picking favourites is simply not cost-effective - and you end up losing money? ( a period we're witnessing since the French Open and which is continuing until now ). What happens if that period lasts for months and months? How do you maintain your discipline waiting for the better days that will inevitably come?
Then of course backing underdogs is surely a losing strategy because the underdogs win at the most unexpected of times. Who would have thought that Fish would beat Federer or that Henin would lose to Bartoli for example? I don't think even 1% of bettors could have predicted these results prior to the event, hence my statement that either strategy is unsuccesful.
However, I'd be interested to hear the "grey" version of a successful bettor - which is always the way things work.
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Old 08-23-2008, 11:33 AM   #56
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Default Re: betting-job

Quote:
Originally Posted by nastoff View Post
The starting premise is that you're trying to find value pre-match betting in, say, a sport like tennis where the favourites are usually extremely low on the odds.
Please define "extremely low on the odds?" There are numerous 1.40+ favourites priced in any tournament week, aren't there?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nastoff View Post
The fastest way of securing profit from this type of betting is by picking winners consistently.
I don't use that strategy, but, I imagine that hitting a very high percentage of winners (75-80%+?) is a must...

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Originally Posted by nastoff View Post
If you follow a strategy of picking, say, all favourites you might end up getting a 10%-20% increase of your bank throughout the course of a season; which is hardly a profit you can use as a regular income.
I'm not sure the average punter on this particular strategy could hope for an ROI even that high. I'm sure that there are a few out there who do very well out of this strategy, but, also, it wouldn't surprise me if 99% finish in deficit. Dunno.


Quote:
Originally Posted by nastoff View Post
Then the issue of discipline could play an enormous part - what happens when you have a period of "drought" where picking favourites is simply not cost-effective - and you end up losing money?
( a period we're witnessing since the French Open and which is continuing until now ).
What happens if that period lasts for months and months? How do you maintain your discipline waiting for the better days that will inevitably come?
Different people react to droughts in different ways. For some, "slashing" stakes is a viable option...gives you a little more time to recover confidence and form, and maybe also experiment with different/modified strategies.

You mention "we" on a number of occasions...why? As mentioned, each individual is different, and, where some are going through a slump, others are riding nicely through this period of time you mention (certainly one particular poster in the tennis betting forum).


Quote:
Originally Posted by nastoff View Post
Then of course backing underdogs is surely a losing strategy because the underdogs win at the most unexpected of times.
Can't say that I agree.

I think you'd be hard-pushed to find an individual who bets 100% of the time on underdogs, but certainly I've seen a number of guys cash in successful seasons betting 90%+ time on this strategy, and I can also speak from my own (more limited) experience.

Sure, many of the underdogs win at "unexpected times," but there also a number of occasions when you might consider that the odds are quite wrong (and you must therefore act accordingly)...for instance, I'm remembering Simon vs. Young in R1 of the Nottingham Open, June. I couldn't think of a single reason why Simon should be priced at 2.20 (took with Stan James), considering match-up, Young's form, recent track record etc going into that match (even if he did win junior Wimbledon). So, in some ways, I kinda expected Simon to win.


Quote:
Originally Posted by nastoff View Post
Who would have thought that Fish would beat Federer or that Henin would lose to Bartoli for example? I don't think even 1% of bettors could have predicted these results prior to the event, hence my statement that either strategy is unsuccesful.
Sure, I doubt people really expected these results to happen, but there are individuals who do speculate on the much higher odds (again, see one particular poster in tennis betting forum)...if you were to do this religiously, I'm not sure you'd find success in the long-run, but the trick (as has been demonstrated) is to pick up on when that heavy favourite might be particularly vulnerable. Certainly, from my own experience, I'm no good at this at all, and very seldom do it.
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Old 08-23-2008, 11:37 AM   #57
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Default Re: betting-job

Jay just out of interest is their 1 sport that statistically pro gamblers do much better in? or should isay is their 1 sport that a lot of them would say yep that sport is the best for making money...?
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Old 08-23-2008, 12:20 PM   #58
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Default Re: betting-job

Quote:
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jayjay, I hear you, that's why I formulated my initial statement as an opinion (I think) rather than a fact - I didn't categorically say that it can't be done over a prolonged period of time but I have serious doubts it can be done..
I respect that, but the fact is there are people who do it, not many at all, but there - so it can be done, but not by average joe.

Quote:
The starting premise is that you're trying to find value pre-match betting in, say, a sport like tennis where the favourites are usually extremely low on the odds.
Well I don't agree with that at all, so we are immediately on a different page. The way I used to work was in particular keying in on favs in and around the 8/11-1/3 mark that I believed to be better chances than the prices they were given, and there are plenty of those around over the course of a season. Plenty.

Quote:
The fastest way of securing profit from this type of betting is by picking winners consistently.
That goes without saying, and the way I used to work I always had a target of 65-70% over a course of a season which provided me with a modest living. The money I was earning was not spectacular, just an average life, with the main benefits being I watched sport for a living and could be as lazy as I wanted.

Quote:
If you follow a strategy of picking, say, all favourites you might end up getting a 10%-20% increase of your bank throughout the course of a season; which is hardly a profit you can use as a regular income.
Here again we are off in completely different directions to begin with - why are you insistent on seeing picking favs or picking dogs as a strategy? This is no strategy.

A professional will at times find a 1/5 shot that he/she is more than happy to be back and at others a 5/2 shot. There is no such strategy as "pick favs and you'll win", or "pick dogs and you'll win".

No. Sometimes you will find that over used term "value" in a fav and sometimes in a dog. It depends match to match, there is no pre-determined action.

Quote:
Then the issue of discipline could play an enormous part - what happens when you have a period of "drought" where picking favourites is simply not cost-effective - and you end up losing money? ( a period we're witnessing since the French Open and which is continuing until now ). What happens if that period lasts for months and months? How do you maintain your discipline waiting for the better days that will inevitably come?
These are the tests of a professional gambler. Any gambler no matter how good or bad will have had runs of wins and losses. An average everyday gambler will chase his losses and find himself in more trouble sooner or later, and a professional will put faith in their capping ability and know that the tables will turn (if the capper has proven over time he can make consistent profit, he will know it will be ok in the end).

How you maintain your discipline? By having a set of rules and following them religiously, once you break out of that you expose yourself to some severe danger. I was guilty of this and got away with it a few times on the bounce, that developed complacency and recklessness and I went to the well one too many times.

I crossed the line from professional gambler to gambling professional.

A professional gambler uses the industry as a means to an end.

A gambling professional becomes more concerned with gambling frequently rather than picking and choosing their spots.

Quote:
Who would have thought that Fish would beat Federer or that Henin would lose to Bartoli for example? I don't think even 1% of bettors could have predicted these results prior to the event, hence my statement that either strategy is unsuccesful.
Yeah but your "strategy" is completely flawed because only a fool would say to themselves that they either only back favs or only back dogs. It's really got nothing to do with that.

In relation to the matches you bring up, yes I agree, results like that which no one or very few will pick do come about. I'd have easily told you Federer and Henin would have won those matches BUT that doesn't mean I would have backed either of them at their prices.

As a professional I would rarely, if ever, touch anything below 1/5.

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Jay just out of interest is their 1 sport that statistically pro gamblers do much better in? or should isay is their 1 sport that a lot of them would say yep that sport is the best for making money...?
Not as far as I'm aware but I'm sure everyone will give you their theory on it and claim one sport is better than the next. I mix with alot of horse racing professionals and they often find it hard to grasp the fact that a team at EVS is a good bet as opposed to the 4's and 5's they are getting on favs they are backing. However, what they must consider is that if I'm betting on EVS on a tennis match there are only two outcomes possible. They may be getting better prices, but conversly, they are also betting against a far greater amount of possible outcomes.

If there is one area of gambling that bookmakers are afraid of, it's niche markets. Not your win-lose-draw market, but specified markets such as time of goals, bookings, corners etc. As these type of markets are purely numbers based and professionals can find an edge in it before a compiler can, it just depends who is best at it. Who spots the trends first and on what basis does the pro or bookie believe the trends will continue or cease.

And niche markets for any sport as bookies generally are ok with their prices on major sports on a win/lose/draw level, but with the newer markets there is scope for them to be burned - but not by the public at large of course, the public at large will always lose to the bookie in the long run, always.
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Old 08-24-2008, 10:45 PM   #59
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Default Re: betting-job

i open this thread to find out how many here are really tru pros.i am not.so far none,and most of the picks no offense look like it.picking dogs,at the odds i would not touch.lots of examples every day and surely more to come starting us open.for example,saying to treat fedex as any other player on tour?are you serious?why then isnt he priced at 200 or even 1000?you can write it because you are betting nothing,50-500 mostly.if you will be betting 5000 i dare you to say it,and if you do i will salute you if show me the ticket with youzhny for exmple for 5k outright.my point is,more you bet more you think racionaly,dont know if i wrote it right.and to be honest,none of the pro punters out there will write it here,that they bet 10k on matches.they would keep it to themself,otherwise the odds will be slashed down.but good to read some of the posts.some,hmmm,some are plain empty,if you know what i mean...
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Old 08-24-2008, 10:49 PM   #60
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Default Re: betting-job

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Not sure why you had this idea of many people here making a living from gambling to begin with tbh

was just curious.something wrong with that?i hope not..but some people spend incredible time in here,so i thought that they are pros.
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