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Old 08-22-2007, 10:54 AM   #886
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Default Re: ***cincy tournament lets go roger ***

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Originally Posted by yanchr View Post
You guys have good imagination, now that I'm worried

If there's some truth about this theory, and some extension about his flying back to Switzerland to see a doctor right after QF in RG, then it's totally a different story than what we were talking about. Even if so, I guess it's only a slight injury, or he won't play back to back TMS at the risk of worsening it...And he should be working on it. It just takes time...
Don't so much. Roger will be just fine at the USO. You'll see.
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Old 08-22-2007, 01:31 PM   #887
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Default Re: ***cincy tournament lets go roger ***

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Originally Posted by ExpectedWinner View Post
Fitness is a general term. It includes: speed, strength, endurance, agility, flexibilty (feel free to add smth else). We are discussing different things.
I'm talking about the lack of bilaterial speed and explosiveness and you're talking about endurance/the ability to play on a high level 2 weeks in a row.

I think Roger showed the lack of endurance in the final in Paris. Sadly, he was "programmed" to hang out with TFA no more than 2 sets. But I prefer not to concentrate on the endurance issue right dnow. There's no enough evidence for the conclusion because he did not play many back to back tournaments and /or 5 setters. We'll have more info if he has to play a few days in a row in NY.

Djoker is a normal 20yo guy and normal guys at this age don't have endurance. NAdal is an abnormal individual, theoretically he should be able to play 2 weeks in a row, but who knows... he's foxy. At the moment others simply don't have skills/mentality to make 2 MM finals in a row, let alone TMS finals.
Obviously, it's not easy to make 2 TMS finals in a row. Current form, fitness, mentality, surface, exp, previous schedule, draw, luck (yes, it never hurts)- all this can make a difference at the end.
never a truer word spoken re: TFA... definitely abnormal mentally and physically for his age
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Old 08-22-2007, 03:03 PM   #888
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Default Re: ***cincy tournament lets go roger ***

Yes, many seemed to have forgotten about his trip to Switzerland during the FO (apparently to see a doctor). I stopped talking about his play in the FO final when I realized that might have been the cause for the way he played. It makes a lot of sense because lately he has not been himself.

I believe that something in niggling Roger; I just hope and pray it's not career-threatening. He does not appear to be too heavy to me but he is admittedly slower; that is why I wouldn't be surprised if there was something bothering him that he won't talk about. It may also explain his longer vacations this year as well.

I hope he can pull out a win in New York and have more time off to hopefully address whatever issues are affecting his movement because it was too dramatic a change. I sincerely doubt it is a lack of conditioning; that just seems ridiculous. Roger is one of the most hard-working players out there and I doubt also that he would be taking his health and fitness for granted.
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Old 08-22-2007, 03:06 PM   #889
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Default Re: ***cincy tournament lets go roger ***

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Originally Posted by TenHound View Post
Weight could be a symptom, or minor aggravation. But evidence is CONSIDERABLE that Major problem for him is back injury/chronic problem/debilitation. Why?

Read Stauffer bk. That's main reason to buy it. To discover that he lost 4th set to Safin when he lost control of his fh due to hurting back by over-compensating for foot injury/blisters. (Recall he said he had "blisters" @IW, just as he said when he lost to Safin.) There was pressing on nerve to his "pointing finger" which threw off his fh. (I posted exact quote previously on another thread.) This wasn't said by way of "whining", but of deep background - 'yes, RF said that "the better man won", but what he didn't say was...'

His fh is off & his kickserve is kaput. I spoke to very knowledgeable tennis friend about this today. He said that kickserves far harder on the back than his 1st serve. That's what fried Edberg's career - his 1st & 2nd serves were both kick serves & it damaged his back. Also, remember that Roger admitted under questioning about his physical condition/health, in Paris I believe, that he had a groin problem & back problem....

This is now Major Problem from the looks of his play. Maybe due to his back, he can't work out as hard as he used to so has gained weight. Or maybe he's distressed & is compensating...But weight not the driving force - otherwise it would be degrading everything equally...
CONSIDERABLE Evidences or CONSPIRACY theory?!Presenting "facts", "opinions of specialists", and out of context quotes from insiders to make a point sounds stronger than it is.

Your theory is that Roger is suffering from a cronic back problem and it is throwing his fh and kickserve off. And that injury was present at that AO05 semi-final. And it was there at the FO semi-final too- which made Roger fly back home during the middle of the tournament.

Let me see if I get this straight: Roger complains twice, since A005- FO07 about back problems, playing, in between, around 170 matches, winning quite a few titles along the way, and this is a sign of a cronic injury. Besides, there could be no other explanation for Roger, during 3 months of the 1st semester, having problems with his forehand and serve. Umm ... you should talk to your tennis expert buddy, and he will tell you that a lot of professional players go through stages when even hitting the simplest of shots isnt as easy as it usually is. And it doesnt necessarily means an injury.

Lets get back to the injury, and its reasons. At that AO05 semi-final Roger told the press he had blisters and that lead to him overcompesating his movements that lead to back pain. An acute problem, leading to another acute problem. At the same time, you throw Edberg to the mix, who, according to you, served a kick serve in both first and second serve- and that ruined his back. Is it me, or something isnt adding up?!

First: Roger's real chronic condition back at 05 was inflammation of his plantar ligament- there was a talk if Roger had or hadnt something called "plantar fasciitis": on his website, Roger wrote that it wasnt exactly plantar fasciitis in its full form, and, to prevent it, he started wearing speciall shoes designed by Nike. One might say: oh! so that is it: a chronic foot problem lead to a chronic back problem. Not quite: anyone who knows a thing or two about medicine, knows that a person with planatr fasciitis wont be able to run freely (because the symptoms include the feeling of walking as if there was a needle under your feet). How could we explain that Roger played around 170 matches in between, without showing evindences of that?! Martina Hingis is an example: he suffered from that condition and had to pull out of the game for 2 years or so. One can say: Roger just doesnt want to admit it! Doubtful: there is only so much you can pretend it is not hurting. Had that chronic feet problem still bothering Roger, after at least one of year of that, sings and symptoms would be too tough to hide.

Second: Roger doesnt serve both serves as kick serve- actually, Roger has a huge variety on his 1st and 2nd serve. He can hit flat, sliced, kicked serves, on the corner, down the T or at the opponent's body. Anyone who saw Roger serving knows his serve isnt effective only through power, but through placement and different spins. And even if a kick serve is harder on the back, back problems wouldnt affect only his kick serve. We should take in consideration, either, that one of the reasons some guys will have a more demanding kick serve on their backs is due to where they toss the ball. Some guys, to add top spin on their serves, toss the ball slightly behind their heads, which leads to arching their backs a little more. Roger's ball toss is usually at the same place, regardless on its spin: he adds spins mostly at the last second, through flick of his wrist: another thing that makes Roger's serves so tough to read.

Third: would a guy with back/ feet problems play back to back tournaments?! Specially a guy who makes his schedule based mostly on how it will allow him to have a longer career, instead of just aiming for points?! One might say: Roger is trying to defend his number one status, so he decided to take that chance. Again, doubtful: if he was so concerned about points, why didnt he try to get a wildcard for smaller tournaments before Montreal?! Or, lets say, play at South Hampton, just after Wimbledon, since grass is his fav turf- much like Nadal did at Stuttgart after SW19?!

Fourth: is his fh and kick serve really that off?!!! His fh was off between IW and Rome, no doubt. Now, what is off is his top spin backhand: a shot that Roger usually has problems with. Last time I checked, a guy with problems on his kick serve would double fault like Coria ... to my recolection, Roger's double-faults doesnt reach double digits if you add up all of them during an entire tournament. And, as I wrote, a back problem wouldnt throw off only his kick serve, it would affect his other types of serve. Even if it could affect a little bit more his kick serve, we would see signs of it on his flat and sliced serve. Is it me, or non-Fed fans are bitching about how "unfair" it is that Roger is winning too many points with his serve?!

Look at the stats from Wimbledon' final:

1st Serve Percentage 71% (111/156)
1st Serve Points Won 71% (79/111)
2nd Serve Points Won 62% (28/45)
Break Points Saved 63% (7/11)

Winning 62% of points with a second serve isnt bad at all. So much for the theory that Roger's second serve is "kaput".

One can say, though, that against Djoko and Blake, Roger won only 40% of points played with a second serve (even if he won around 70% of points with his 1st serve). Could it be that one of the reasons is that both Djoko and Blake were having a good day returning second serves?! We can use Lleyton's matches as an example of what a good/ bad day at a shot can do: in Montreal, Roger won only 30% of his points played with a second serve. One week later,on a much tougher match, he won 60% of them. Couldnt the player at the other side of the net (and his day's form) has something to do with it?!

Just take a look at Roger's serve stats until August, 20:

Service Record Year-to-Date
Aces: 400
Double Faults: 64
1st Serve %: 61
1st Serve Points Won %: 77
2nd Serve Points Won %: 57

And, again, Roger doenst always serve a first serve as a flat serve, and a second serve as a kick serve.

Lets compare Roger's serve with Roddick's:

Aces: 636
Double Faults: 84
1st Serve %: 65
1st Serve Points Won %: 81
2nd Serve Points Won %: 57

Look, I am not just writing all of that to "defend" Roger (or, even worse , to "defend" my denial state). If I were to pick something, I would, rationally, pick the weight issue: and not because Roger let go of his physical shape, but, maybe, it was a strategy he and his physical coach designed- and it might not be working as good as they planned (which I think might be even a premature conclusion, but I recognize that on that it is more my "fan" side acting up).However, while reading your post, I had the feeling that on one moment or another, the issue of an alien abducting Roger and implanting on him a device on his back would come up ...

Note after edit: when I talk about Roger's and his physical coach strategy, I dont meat that they planned for Roger to get fat. Instead, bulking up a bit, much like Lleyton did at the AO05.

Last edited by fmolinari2005 : 08-22-2007 at 03:11 PM.
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Old 08-22-2007, 04:25 PM   #890
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Default Re: ***cincy tournament lets go roger ***

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Originally Posted by fmolinari2005 View Post
Second: Roger doesnt serve both serves as kick serve- actually, Roger has a huge variety on his 1st and 2nd serve. He can hit flat, sliced, kicked serves, on the corner, down the T or at the opponent's body. Anyone who saw Roger serving knows his serve isnt effective only through power, but through placement and different spins. And even if a kick serve is harder on the back, back problems wouldnt affect only his kick serve. We should take in consideration, either, that one of the reasons some guys will have a more demanding kick serve on their backs is due to where they toss the ball. Some guys, to add top spin on their serves, toss the ball slightly behind their heads, which leads to arching their backs a little more. Roger's ball toss is usually at the same place, regardless on its spin: he adds spins mostly at the last second, through flick of his wrist: another thing that makes Roger's serves so tough to read.
Thanks, mate. It will fall on deaf ears though. It's amazing that she forgot to bring on Pat Rafter as an "evidence". TR coached him, he had a tremendous kick on his serve and his right shoulder became "dead" soon after winning Toronto, Cinci, USO.
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Old 08-22-2007, 04:44 PM   #891
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Default Re: ***cincy tournament lets go roger ***

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He took a great care of himself for the last 3-4 years. But something happened between AO and IW. All of a sudden, he showed up out of shape, slightly overweight and lazy. My fault is that I started to pay attention to it right away. Now I sound like a broken record and people get irritated. I DO believe that that he's carrying extra 3-4 kg around the waist. I'd never post anything like that just for the sake of posting "breaking news".

Now, 3-4 kg might not seem a huge deal for some. Make an experiment: run from your computer to your refrigerator with little steps 50 times. Then attach to your waist a 4kg potato sack, repeat running. Was it easier to run first time? I bet it was. Did you run faster first time? Yes. Remember that he has to run around with this little extra weight for hours and being just 1 sec late for his fh can send it (fh) to the fence.
We also shouldn't forget that his upper body has gotten bigger over the years (intentionally) and that also increases his weight and doesn't help his footwork. The tricky thing is that his ideal playing weight (and his trainer must know exact number of kgs and it's distribution) should't fluctuate much. It means if he gained some muscle in the shoulder area, he should become leaner in other places. Where are those places? They are in the abdominal area. But exactly the opposite happened: he gained in this area and it affected his footwork greatly. Now, how to lose weight? He can not be put on some apple/carrot/melon diet. He will lose his strength. There is the only answer: increase the amount of daily work outs with an emphasis on the abdominal area. It's not easy, it's boring, it requires dedication. Does he have this dedication? Now that he has 11 Slams and and lot of other things that came along with it, he might want to enjoy his life (don't let the interviews to fool you).
I understand that 26 is not young by tennis standards, it's getting only harder from here. But if he intends to continue, he shouldn't assist the nature. It's OK to be outplayed, it's OK to be outrunned by younger legs. It's not OK to lose a macth because you don't do your homework anymore. It's OK for someone like Labadze or even Nalbandian, but not for him. If the hunger is not there, I'd prefer him to retire.

Now that I have written this essay, I feel like a complete idiot. Why? Because the results are still there, 5 titles, 2GS, it's been a super year once again. But how long will it last? Will he be able to win with the lack of movement, shaky fh, inconsistent bh? He's no Sampras, serve alone will not get him GS titles (IMO). Djokovic will get better endurance in the next couple of years, Murray will get stronger, Nadal is not going to decline at 22. If Fed doesn't train hard (even harder than before), he will not be able to hold back these guys (and two of them are difficult match ups for him anyway) and he'll not get 14 Slams.
I have no problem with speculation that Fed is carrying extra weight. He seems to have bulked up his shoulders though the paunch has been with him for a few years now. I have a problem with you speculating that he is going to continue this trend of "inactivity" through 2008 and beyond. I see no reason for him to do that. He knows that the young guns are gunning for him and I would be quite surprised if he hasn't realized that he has been relying more on his serve.

In one of his interviews, he in fact alluded to the fact that his movement is an important element of his game so I doubt he is not thinking about it during his exercise routine.

He could have a nagging injury that never really goes away but still allows him to play ok tennis (by his standards) and if that is true, it is a more serious problem than carrying some extra weight.

I am personally going with the motivation angle. I feel that his motivation hasn't really been that great after the Canas losses and I attribute his problems more to loss of focus that weight or injury.
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Old 08-22-2007, 05:47 PM   #892
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Default Re: ***cincy tournament lets go roger ***

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I have a problem with you speculating that he is going to continue this trend of "inactivity" through 2008 and beyond. I see no reason for him to do that.I am personally going with the motivation angle. I feel that his motivation hasn't really been that great after the Canas losses and I attribute his problems more to loss of focus that weight or injury.
I don't know when this "trend of inactivity" is going to end; 7 month is long enough. I definetely don't claim that it'll go through 2008 and beyond. Sorry, if it comes across like that; I'm writing on my 4th language. But there's one thing I know-one step back means two steps forward (harder training). You and me, we've never won GS titles, we don't do all this hard, physical work, we don't know how it feels. We don't/can't/refuse to see the reasons why he'd become bored/complacent right now. Did you read his interview after W? Q: How does it feel to equal Borg's record. A: It's OK. You know the 5th W is not the first. It's not a very exciting answer, is it? What if he doesn't want this "drug" called victory anymore?

Re: Loss of focus after Canas' losses. Horrible timing, if it's a true. Why would he dwell on it before the French, ruining possibly his last realistic chance to win it?

Last edited by ExpectedWinner : 08-22-2007 at 10:47 PM.
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