[Dextertje]

Interesting article for those who still think poker is all about luck

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/pro-tip...Roberts&tip=98

"How Much Luck? How Much Skill?
Ben Roberts
March 30th, 2007

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If you've ever sat at a poker table, you've invariably heard the questions asked in the title of this article. While all serious players believe poker is a game of skill, they don't always agree on how skilful a game it really is. Some people believe the skill to luck ratio falls at somewhere around 70% - 30%, while others argue that the ratio is closer to 90% - 10%. If you ask me, however, I'll tell you something you won't hear from almost anybody else. Poker is 100% skilful.

Now, I know many of you are already skeptical about how I can make this kind of claim. What about bad beats? Or the times you're out-drawn on the river? How can I not figure these kinds of situations into my thinking? The fact is, I already have. Variance is part of poker and it would be highly unusual if bad beats didn't occasionally happen or if two-outers didn't sometimes hit on the river, as this would defy the laws of probability. The fact is, these kinds of events should have less of an impact on your overall results the more you play.

If you only play a few hands or a few hours of poker at a time, luck will undoubtedly play a bigger factor in your results than if you play regularly. For example, let's look at a player who puts in eight hours a day, five days a week, for 50 weeks per year, which is equivalent to 2,000 hours at the table. Assuming this is a solid, smart player who doesn't vary his or her stakes throughout the course of the year, I believe their talent will outweigh the effect of luck to ensure that they produce positive results year after year. That's not to say this player won't run into the occasional rough patch or have losing sessions, but by sticking to their game plan, these occasional down-turns shouldn't adversely affect their bottom line.

In effect, all players get paid for every good decision that they make and penalized for their bad ones. By continuously making high-quality decisions over the course of so many hours, skilful players should make more good decisions than bad, and see their bankrolls grow as a result. I have done this for more than 33 years, and know many other professional players who have produced similar results for many years. What this shows me is that, over the long haul, luck is not only insignificant when it comes to your results - it's non-existent.

It takes a true professional to look at poker in this way, and I fully expect that many people will disagree with my conclusions. That's why I'm holding a scheduled chat session entitled "Poker - Luck or Skill" on Full Tilt Poker at 15:00 ET (3PM ET) on Saturday, April 7th. I'll be happy to answer any questions you may have about my position and further explain why I believe that, over the long term, luck has nothing to do with being a winning poker player.

Ben Roberts"

[Grinder]

We should get an MTF table of Texas Hold'em on PokerStars.

Originally Posted by Grinder

We should get an MTF table of Texas Hold'em on PokerStars.

I'm in

[vincayou]

I used to play a lot online. OK... I still play a lot.

I play on partyPoker.
http://www.officialpokerrankings.com...F9CD01A53.html

Fact is, I work from home now, and I'm always tempted to start a game. Grrrr...

I'm hitting a bad patch now, hopefully it won't last too long. This game is very difficult and I'm not very convinced I'm good at it.

[Kolya]

Stu Ungar!!!

[Dextertje]

Originally Posted by Grinder

We should get an MTF table of Texas Hold'em on PokerStars.

We could organize a weekly private "MTF sit&go" (single table or multi-table), NLH or PLO, either on pokerstars or fulltilt...

[Grinder]

Originally Posted by JMPower

We could organize a weekly private "MTF sit&go" (single table or multi-table), NLH or PLO, either on pokerstars or fulltilt...

Absolutely, I'm in, I know Prabu is.

I use Pokerstars and Full Tilt, we should do play money tables so everyone can play.

[Jogy]

was the poker online rooom for our little clown brain closed today or why did the fool go to trolling in the Nadal forum today?

must still hurt that Nadal slaughters Federer hard on clay and that Federer only got his mickey mouse win in Hamburg, but on big stage it is Nadal who wins

[Marek.]

Originally Posted by Jogy

was the poker online rooom for our little clown brain closed today or why did the fool go to trolling in the Nadal forum today?

must still hurt that Nadal slaughters Federer hard on clay and that Federer only got his mickey mouse win in Hamburg, but on big stage it is Nadal who wins

Four sets is considered a slaughter? Anyway, that won't matter in a few weeks when Federer is holding that golden cup again.

[Dextertje]

I missed that my friend Jogy added his 2 cents to the thread (off topic though)

Back on track, the WSOP ME is about to begin, who do you think will win, another luckbox amateur or a confirmed pro ? The field should this year be huge again (over 8'000)...

Unfortunately I won't play it so no shot to become the next millionaire....

I hope Antonius make a good run, last week Poker After Dark was brilliant, he just owned Booth heads up

[stebs]

I can't see a pro winning it but the best bets are Ivey, Cunningham, Hellmuth and Antonius if a pro is to win it all. The older pro's tire mentally and throw their chips away and the agressive pro's end up being sucked out on which is to be expected if they are playing a load of big pots with ameteurs. The 50k HORSE event is happening now and many argue that the winner of that is the REAL WSOP champ because it's almost all pro's.

[El Legenda]

i played a lot during my first 2 years in college, not so much last year. we would play like 10-15, sometimes 20 people, $20buy in, winner, 2nd and 3rd get money, winner 65% 2nd 25% and 3rd 10%
won a couple of those. never got into online poker with real money, because its you win like 10straight hands and then lose next 15

[Dextertje]

Originally Posted by stebs

The 50k HORSE event is happening now and many argue that the winner of that is the REAL WSOP champ because it's almost all pro's.

Agreed

A high-quality field there . I dont' know why Chip Reese is not defending his bracelet though strange...

[Dextertje]

Originally Posted by Vamos Ljubo!

never got into online poker with real money, because its you win like 10straight hands and then lose next 15

Only poor players think online poker is rigged

Online poker is for sure the easiest way to make money out of the bunch of fishes and donkeys...

[El Legenda]

Originally Posted by JMPower

Only poor players think online poker is rigged

Online poker is for sure the easiest way to make money out of the bunch of fishes and donkeys...

its not rigged, but its not real poker, i want my cards to come from a human hand not a software generated.