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Old 06-01-2007, 06:15 PM   #1
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Default MLB Friday

Kicking off June with some parlays

ATL/CHI O9 x Padres -1.5
Rays x Mariners
Angels x Brewers
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Old 06-01-2007, 06:22 PM   #2
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Default Re: MLB Friday

I really like it.


Atlanta-Chicago 'UNDER' 9 +105

The weather is so-so at Wrigley this afternoon so I don't know that it will make a huge difference here. For starters, Home Plate Umpire Mark Wegner has been an under guy all season with 6 of his 9 games hitting the UNDER mark and I have no problem taking him to call this one under as well. All his OVER games have been when the total is at 8 or lower while any total at 8.5 or higher has gone 5-0 on the UNDER. Wegner doesn't always makes things easy for guys but it seems like he makes key third strike calls when he has to and when big innings are on the line. On the mound today for the Cubbies is Carlos Zambrano who has not pitched all that well but I think this is a good spot for him to put in one of his best efforts all season. He is coming off a very strong road start against the Dodgers where he allowed only 2 ER's in 7.2 innings of work while striking out 8 batters. I think that's just the kind of outing he needed to kick start his month of June and I really think he can shut down this Atlanta lineup today...enough to stay UNDER the total. On the flip side of things Ken Davies is on the mound for the Braves and let me tell you that Davies has pitched really well in his last two road starts. In those two starts he pitched 11.2 innings of work, allowing only 3 ER's and averaging only about 14 pitches per inning which is pretty good. What you have to understand about Wrigley, because this does make a difference here, is that when the wind is blowing IN FROM CENTER, almost all the games go OVER because pitchers have problems controlling the location of their pitches. However, the last time I checked this afternoon, that wind was coming in from RIGHT TO LEFT at 7mph at Wrigley which would indicate that pitchers are going to have an easier time locating pitches and getting the calls they want from an UNDER ump in Wegner. When the wind comes in from that direction this season, the UNDER is 7-2 on the year and an average of only 7.25 runs are scored per game. Also, when the wind blows in this direction this season, hitters are hitting only .237 (thats nine games combined) compared to .271 they hit when the wind is coming in from center field or other directions. Don't underestimate the power of wind here because on one side you have a Cubs team that is batting only .229 in their last 10 games and on the other side you have a Braves team that has scored more than 4 runs in a road game only 4 of their last 13 road games which is not good news for these guys. The UNDER is also 8-2 in the Cubs last 10 games that follow a day off and although Zambrano has been the king of OVER betting since the season started, I think he is about to turn a new corner and pitch one of his best home games this season on the heels of that outing against the Dodgers. Zambrano is 9-4 in 20 career starts in the month of June and for some reason some of his best stuff has come in daytime games like this one. Remember he has that one bad inning every game so don't panic if the Braves get a few early runs because this baby is not touching the OVER borders. LETS GO PITCHERS!


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Old 06-01-2007, 06:46 PM   #3
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Default Re: MLB Friday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitefaery View Post
Kicking off June with some parlays

ATL/CHI O9 x Padres -1.5
Rays x Mariners
Angels x Brewers
same here
Rays x Mariners
Angels x Padres
BJ

Good luck everyone
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Old 06-01-2007, 10:29 PM   #4
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Default Re: MLB Friday

Dodgers -160 at Pittsburgh
I truly believe that after the Bucs loss last night they will be in no mood to play today. They had a 2-0 lead into the top of the ninth and they blew it only to lose in extras. What doesn't help tonight is that Duke is on the hill for the Pirates and he doesn't pitch well against the Dodgers. In three games against LA he is 1-2 with an 8.15 era!! He just doesn't have it this year, his numbers don't lie; 3-5 with a 5.55 era. On the other hand, Wolf is going for the Dodgers and he has been great as of late. Already this year against the Pirates he is 1-0 with a 1.50era. Enough with the numbers, hopefully this one gets decided early!!!
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Old 06-01-2007, 11:46 PM   #5
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Default Re: MLB Friday

Took a Padres/Rays double

Kazmir getting shelled atm by KC and Peavy shitting his bed against the Nationals

GL
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Old 06-02-2007, 12:54 AM   #6
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Default Re: MLB Friday

Alright my day started off with a bang as I won a huge tennis bet at -105 odds and am now 22-5 in tennis the last three weeks. However, I lost some of it back when I bet the UNDER 9 in the afternoon game and that was a huge mistake. Okay so back to business we go and it's time to pound away on this baby. Here we go:



COLORADO ROCKIES ML -153 ***Large Wager***

I don't have much time to discuss this one because it goes off in a about 20 minutes but this is one of my largest wagers of the year. I know it sucks to bet on a team like the Rockies who have lost two straight but it would suck even more to bet on the Reds who are one of the worst teams in the majors right now and who are coming off a horrendous loss to the Astros last night. Colorado is still fresh off the heels of a seven game win streak that saw them kick some serious ass. I have no doubt in my mind that they can regain that form now that the pesky Cardinals have left town. On the mound for the Rockies tonight is Taylor Buchholz who has done a decent job of getting these guys through some inning and getting them some wins. I know his numbers are not great but he has given them 18.2 innings of work in his last three starts and he has beaten the Reds in the past. On the mound for Cincinnati is Bobby Livingston who is a left handed pitcher making only his second career start which is not good at all. He was hit pretty hard against the Dodgers in his first start and now that the bullpen has an ERA of 6.47 in their last 10 games, I don't know what the Reds are going to do if this kid can't go more than 5 or 6 innings. The Rockies are batting .280 in their last five games overall but it's their pitching staff that has done the best job and help opponents to .240 hitting in their last five games. The Reds on the other hand continue to have serious problems with their pitching staff who have allowed opponents to hit .290 in their last five games. The offense is capable of getting runs but not enough to help the helpless pitching staff out. Livingston is pretty much a desperation attempt by the Reds to get a boost at the pitching position but he doesn't have enough experience to handle a Colorado lineup that has now lost two straight games and that has been playing a lot better at home than on the road. Cincinnati is now 1-6 in their last 7 road games versus a right handed pitcher and they have been known to make bad pitcher like Buchholz look a lot better than they really are. Colorado has not been a fun team to bet on as home favs but I think this is a great spot for them and I think they come out swinging the bats. If Buchholz can't hold the fort down, the bullpen has been good enough to pickup the slack as they have an ERA of 3.23 in their last 10 games and have done a great job most of the season. The Rockies are definitely on the up swing and it's time to make some cash here. GO ROCKIES!



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Old 06-02-2007, 02:52 AM   #7
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Default Re: MLB Friday

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Originally Posted by sploush View Post
same here
Rays x Mariners
Angels x Padres
BJ

Good luck everyone
loss
loss
loss
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Old 06-02-2007, 03:09 AM   #8
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Default Re: MLB Friday

I learned a very important lesson tonight in sports betting. Baseball is a complete joke to wager on. It is such a crap shoot. Anything can happen. It doesn't matter if you have your ace on the mound and the other team has a guy with era 10.00. there is just too many variables. Parlaying favourites in baseball is the most statistically nightmarish bet you can make. I have been getting burned on these kind of bets for awhile and have now realized for sure that you are flushing your money down the drain if you bet on baseball. The only way to make any kind of profit on baseball is to find selective underdogs, but even then you will probably lose in the long run. I will stick to tennis wagering from now on and so help me god never bet on this book pleasing sport again. Btw I took another heavily favoured double before I wrote this which will lose also. The bet was Sea ml x Ana ml. Sorry for the rant.

GL on future wagers
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Old 06-02-2007, 05:41 AM   #9
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Default Re: MLB Friday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thrasher View Post
I learned a very important lesson tonight in sports betting. Baseball is a complete joke to wager on. It is such a crap shoot. Anything can happen. It doesn't matter if you have your ace on the mound and the other team has a guy with era 10.00. there is just too many variables. Parlaying favourites in baseball is the most statistically nightmarish bet you can make. I have been getting burned on these kind of bets for awhile and have now realized for sure that you are flushing your money down the drain if you bet on baseball. The only way to make any kind of profit on baseball is to find selective underdogs, but even then you will probably lose in the long run. I will stick to tennis wagering from now on and so help me god never bet on this book pleasing sport again. Btw I took another heavily favoured double before I wrote this which will lose also. The bet was Sea ml x Ana ml. Sorry for the rant.

GL on future wagers
Good insights. Baseball is the most unpredictable of sports. All it takes is for one guy, the pitcher, to lose his concentration for a few minutes and the damage is often too great for his team to overcome. It`s not like tennis, where a mental lapse for a few games in a 3 or 5 set match can be easily turned around by a good player. Also with baseball you often do not even know who you are betting on, not knowing who will come out of the bullpen. Not a good sport to wager on IMO. I prefer tennis and college basketball.
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Old 06-02-2007, 06:02 AM   #10
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Default Re: MLB Friday

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Originally Posted by TFan1156 View Post
Good insights. Baseball is the most unpredictable of sports. All it takes is for one guy, the pitcher, to lose his concentration for a few minutes and the damage is often too great for his team to overcome. It`s not like tennis, where a mental lapse for a few games in a 3 or 5 set match can be easily turned around by a good player. Also with baseball you often do not even know who you are betting on, not knowing who will come out of the bullpen. Not a good sport to wager on IMO. I prefer tennis and college basketball.

Like you, I also wager on CBB. Tennis and CBB are the only sports I usually bet on. For some reason this year I started to dabble in baseball which was a big mistake. I made a nice sum last CBB season and will be looking forward to your insights this season.

GL
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Old 06-03-2007, 04:30 PM   #11
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Default Re: MLB Friday

baseballs a tough sport to cap for sure, its more about finding value than picking winners which very different than sports most of us usually cap in football and bball. Tennis betting can be similar but to a degree we still pick winners in tennis. In baseball I try to go into each play thinking I will bet either side for the right price then it's just a matter of finding which side is giving it to me. I lost as well initially over my first few seasons and got frustrated with betting it till I found what worked for me. I cleaned up in hockey this year and the last but baseball if it continues at the rate it is right now will blow the 2 years combined away. So there's money to be had you might just need to play around with it and find out what works for you.
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