FLAVA IS ON FIRE! I won my two bets of Arizona -133 and NY Yankees +132 yesterday and now have only one loss in my last six days of baseball betting. I was also perfect on Friday and did not post on Saturday. I foolishly lost money on a tennis wager (never again betting women's tennis) this morning but won it back with other tennis betting. My largest wager of the month was on the Memorial Cup in hockey offered on Pinnacle last night and since that wager, Pinnacle announced to me that they would no longer offer lines for that tournament. UNREAL! Anyways, back to bases tonight, let's make some cash. Here we go:
BOSTON RED SOX ML +140
This is probably as classic as it gets when it comes to familiar scenarios in baseball betting. Everyone was amazed last night with the Yankees (including myself) because they broke out of their bad streak in a big way as big time underdogs and beat the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball. Well that's really nice to know and really nice to see but their young pitcher was on his game and he was a nice breath of fresh air for a team that has really struggled badly. Now what I would first and foremost like to point out is a possible scenario at the end of this baseball game. Yankees closer Mariano Rivera has been as unreliable as it gets in the bigs this year. Should the Yankees be up a run or two in the 9th inning and Mariano comes in, I do not trust him one bit to hold a lead against this Red Sox team. I say that because Rivera was brought in for one inning last night with a 6-1 lead and sure enough, he was unable to record three outs, giving up a solo home run with two outs. What if the Yankees had only been up by one run at that point? Exactly. Okay so moving onto this game. Now the Yankees get to go back home and the first thing I noticed last night is how many people were already posting Yankees ML after their big win over the Mets. I mean the Yankees are not 10.5 games back of the Red Sox for no reason and the betting public as well as the oddsmaking crew have yet to realize this. So you Yankees backers are trusting Wang tonight? Lets look at the last times he pitched at home against the Red Sox. Last September, the Yankees lost 5-2 with Wang on the mound at home. The last time these two teams met was in Yankees stadium and Wang started that game too...a 7-4 loss to the Red Sox. My point here is that he is vulnerable. We already know that both teams win for their starting pitchers as both teams are 2-1 in their starters last three starts. Both pitchers have been outstanding in those starts but Wakefield has been slightly better holding opponents to 15 hits in 21 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.14 and a WHIP of 0.95. Wang has also pitched well but has given up 19 hits in 21.1 innings of work his last three starts with an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 0.98. I don't know what it is about the Red Sox pitching but it has been a lot better on the road than at home. With Josh Beckett out, the Red Sox don't want to let up and Wakefield is going to be counted on to hold the fort down. I mean you also have to be concerned for the Yankees seeing how some of the Red Sox players have hit Wang in the past. Kevin Youkilis is 4 for 11 lifetime, David Ortiz is 9 for 20, Manny Ramirez 10 for 16 and Alex Cora 4 for 13. On the flip side of things, Hideki Matsui and Alex Rodrigues don't know what the hell a knuckleball is as Matsui is 7 for 40 lifetime against Wakefield, A-Rod is .242 against the knuckleballer, Jason Giambi 14 for 81 versus Wakfield, Robinson Cano 5 for 24 and Doug Mientkiewicz is 1 for 16. The only guy in this lineup with an average above .300 against Wakefield is Derek Jeter and he can't win this game alone. I cannot believe that the Red Sox are underdogs like this after winning 10 of their last 11 road games versus a right handed pitcher. That makes no sense to me and the line is blown up because of the Yankees success last night. It opened at -130 and has gone up to almost -160 at some books indicating that the public is smashing away. Wakefield has allowed more than 3 ER's in only one start this season and that was his last time out. He is now well rested and ready to rock. In 2006, when Wakfield allowed 5 or more ER's in a game, he followed that up the next time by going 2-1, allowing only 5 ER's in 20 innings of work. That's some impressive bounce back performances by Wakefield and I think he can get the same thing done tonight. Boston has won 7 of the last 8 mettings between these two teams so why would things change after the Yankees won a game across town? They won't. The Red Sox are a top notch team that comes into this series with a lot of momentum and a serious desire to put away the the Yankees once and for all. Don't forget what I said earlier about Mariano Rivera and the foreshadowing he did last night by allowing that solo HR in the 9th inning. It wasn't for nothing and that will come back to bite him although it didn't last night. The Red Sox bullpen is phenomenal on the road this season with an ERA of 1.95 and that will be the difference. I feel like watching a fight tonight and its up to the Red Sox to show me some CASH FUCKIN MONEY NEW YAAAAAAAAAK STYLES BABY!