Okay so I lost on the Red Sox the other night but I guess that was a bad bet. I won six straight tennis bets to keep my money flow going and now that tennis is done for the day, its back to betting bases and let me tell you that for one of the first times this year, I am going to take advantage of the special lines offered by Pinnacle. Here it is:
MINNESOTA TWINS ML -129
I just don't see the Twins getting swept in this series. These two teams had five different series against each other last season and not once did one team sweep the other team. I know anything can happen and I know trends like that don't go very far but that trend shows how competitive this series can be and I have no doubt in my mind that the Indians come out and get Johan Santana a win today. In case you didn't know by now, Santana is on the mound this afternoon and the Twins have now lost 3 of the last 4 games he has started. It would be easy for the square bettor to once again take the Indians as underdogs here because of the pitching matchup but let me tell you right now that this situation is very different than the matchup last year when the same two pitchers were on the mound in the very same ballpark and the Indians won that game. If you base yourself on that game alone, you're in big trouble. Johan Santana has not always enjoyed pitching in this park but he should enjoy it to some degree because he is 7-3 lifetime versus the Indians with an ERA of 3.21 and a WHIP of 1.08 while holding the Indians to a batting average of only .217. You have to also consider that as well as the Indians have played this season, they are batting only .202 versus left handed pitchers at home this season and Santana is probably the best lefty in the game of baseball right now. Santana has also always been a much more effective pitcher in daytime games which is why I don't have a problem paying this price to wager on him. I know the Twins have struggled badly in the last week or so but their fortunes are bound to change and they have hit .277 in their last 10 games which is not bad at all and which is encouraging to know because one of these days, those runs are going to start cashing in for them. Carmona is a good pitcher but he has struggled at home this season going 1-1 with an ERA of 4.97 and WHIP of 1.34 in his two home starts. I know he was great against the Orioles in his last home start but I think this Twins lineup can get to him enough for Santan to hold them off. I was checking out some stats and the Twins are 10-1 in Santana's last 11 Thursday starts which most of them were daytime games. I don't know what it means exactly but it's pretty damn interesting how well he pitches in this situation. The Indians have been on fire all season but they are 2-8 the last 10 times as underdogs (most trap bets like today) and I have no problem getting the best pitcher in MLB at this price. Home Plate Umpire Chris Guccione has shown love the for the Twins in the past (no idea why) and they have won their last five games when he is behind the plate. That combined with Santana on the mound and the Twins avoiding a series sweep...all I can say is LETS GO TWINS BABY!