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Old 11-21-2006, 09:44 AM   #1
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Default "Reverse Odds Analysis"

I have been betting for around 8 years and in my time I have tried various strategies to try and beat the books. There is one strategy which I have been looking into very closely over the past few months widely known as the "Reverse Odds Analysis" Let me try and explain....

Your average punter generally looks at various lines whether it be in basketball, NFL etc and attempts to find line discrepancies between what he believes the outcome of an event is to what the books have set the line at to determine whether Team A will cover against Team B. The way he does that is via some form of analysis whether it be using historical trends, past results etc. So essentially if you see a strong trend whether it be an O/U or side trend in a particular event and feel the current line undervalues that trend you make the bet accordingly. Unfortunately this is what Vegas wants us to do because in the long run they know an average punter who operates in this fashion does not come ahead in front.

Vegas is a multibillion dollar business, these guys are not idiots they want our money and the way they do that is setting a line as such to ensure they get action on both sides 50/50. They use the sharp bettors and insiders who jump on the early lines as valuable indicators to ensure they achieve this, and will adjust the line accordingly if they feel they are not getting the required action on both sides of the line. The books try and achieve a balanced book to ensure that whatever the outcome of a particular event, they will make money. Ultimately the teams playing, the stats and trends associated with a particular matchup is secondary - it is the line of the game that is what matters most when capping a game.

What reverse odds analysis forces you to do is work backwards - ask yourself why the books have set the line at a particular number? Vegas have already done the detailed analysis of games, factored in all the trends and stats, team news etc when setting a line. This is why me doing the same kind of analysis is somewhat fruitless exercise. What you need to do is try and determine using reverse odds analysis is who Vegas believes will cover the spread based on the line set. Easier said then done...

Have you ever seen a line in a game and thought to yourself "this looks too easy?" These are commonly known as "trap" games and this is what Vegas wants you to think. My advice when that ever occurs is pass on the game and move on. Sure the ocassional trap games does yield a positive result but in the long run YOU WILL NEVER WIN. The books will always be one step ahead of you.

The most classic example occured in the NFL on Sunday when the Dallas Cowboys were a 1 point favourite against the Colts. A 5-4 team was a one point favourite against a 9-0 team???????????? It is just so obvious, Vegas knew the Cowboys would win but had to set the line as such to get enough action on the Colts. What resulted was the public looking at the line on the Colts, thought to themselves "this is too good to be true" and proceeded to hand over their cash they used to back the Colts to the books. Essentially what Vegas was telling me was should the two teams play in a neutral venue, the Colts would have been a 2 point favourite, and if they had played in Indiana they would have been a 5 point favourite (using the 3 point differential as a rule of thumb). Good grief it's was so damn obvious.

Now the hard part - trying to identify those games that fit into the reverse odds strategy. Not every game will fit into this category. Another thing to note is the above strategy is most successful for American sports where there is most action seen and more money invoved to affect the lines of particular games. Don't even bother with tennis, it won't work IMO.

I've been using this method over the past few months with reasonable success (only paper bets though). I'm going to track my bets and see how I fare, no gurantees that I will make any money but would be interested to see what the results are. The downside is that my perception of the line may not necessarily equate to what Vegas are thinking.

Only sports I will be betting in here will be NBA and NFL.
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Old 11-21-2006, 09:50 AM   #2
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

Overall Record (13-11-1)

NBA (10-6-1)

Code:
24/11/06 Knicks +4 v Celtics (W)
25/11/06 Wizards -2 v Pistons (L)
29/11/06 Nets +3.5 v Celtics (W)
1/12/06 Sonics -3 v Pacers (L)
17/12/06 Kings +2.5 v Suns (L)
19/12/06 Suns -13 v Raptors (W)
20/12/06 Warriors +1.5 v Celtics (W)
22/12/06 Magic -4 v Warriors (L)
22/12/06 Kings +2.5 v Nuggets (W)
23/12/06 Heat -5.5 v Warriors (W)
26/12/06 Hornets +5.5 v Sonics (L)
27/12/06 Bulls -5.5 v Heat (W)
29/12/06 Magic +6.5 v Wizards (W)
30/12/06 Grizzlies -5.5 v Raptors (W)
31/12/06 Grizzlies +8.5 v Rockets (W)
2/1/07 Clippers +5 v Magic (X)
3/1/07 Jazz -11.5 v 76ers (L)
NFL (3-5-0)

Code:
26/11/06 Steelers  +3 v Ravens (L)
26/11/06 Rams -4 v Niners (L)
30/11/06 Bengals -3 v Ravens (W)
17/12/06 Ravens -11 v Browns (L)
18/12/06 Colts -3 v Bengals (W)
23/12/06 Raiders +7.5 v Chiefs (L)
24/12/06 Seahawks +4.5 v Chargers (W)
24/12/06 Jaguars -3 v Patriots (L)

Last edited by bad gambler : 01-04-2007 at 07:00 AM.
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Old 11-21-2006, 10:25 AM   #3
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

good stuff BG
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Old 11-21-2006, 09:00 PM   #4
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

Good write up BG. My own view on spreads is quite simple, have no time for them for obvious reasons. ML is the way I've been going for years and with success. Sure lower prices, but it's all about the win not the margin.
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Old 11-22-2006, 02:21 AM   #5
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

Quote:
Originally Posted by jayjay View Post
Good write up BG. My own view on spreads is quite simple, have no time for them for obvious reasons. ML is the way I've been going for years and with success. Sure lower prices, but it's all about the win not the margin.
I know what you mean. I tend only to bet on ML's if:

1) The line is really tight i.e. if the favourite is only a 1 or 2 point favourite in which case I will accept the additional juice
2) If it is an underdog ML

If I am in a terrible run, I might revert back to taking the low ML's (generally around the $1.60 mark) to build up some confidence before going back to taking the spreads.

In the cases where you like the underdog in a matchup do you take the points or take the ML?
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Old 11-22-2006, 06:30 AM   #6
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
I have been betting for around 8 years and in my time I have tried various strategies to try and beat the books. There is one strategy which I have been looking into very closely over the past few months widely known as the "Reverse Odds Analysis" Let me try and explain....

Your average punter generally looks at various lines whether it be in basketball, NFL etc and attempts to find line discrepancies between what he believes the outcome of an event is to what the books have set the line at to determine whether Team A will cover against Team B. The way he does that is via some form of analysis whether it be using historical trends, past results etc. So essentially if you see a strong trend whether it be an O/U or side trend in a particular event and feel the current line undervalues that trend you make the bet accordingly. Unfortunately this is what Vegas wants us to do because in the long run they know an average punter who operates in this fashion does not come ahead in front.

Vegas is a multibillion dollar business, these guys are not idiots they want our money and the way they do that is setting a line as such to ensure they get action on both sides 50/50. They use the sharp bettors and insiders who jump on the early lines as valuable indicators to ensure they achieve this, and will adjust the line accordingly if they feel they are not getting the required action on both sides of the line. The books try and achieve a balanced book to ensure that whatever the outcome of a particular event, they will make money. Ultimately the teams playing, the stats and trends associated with a particular matchup is secondary - it is the line of the game that is what matters most when capping a game.

What reverse odds analysis forces you to do is work backwards - ask yourself why the books have set the line at a particular number? Vegas have already done the detailed analysis of games, factored in all the trends and stats, team news etc when setting a line. This is why me doing the same kind of analysis is somewhat fruitless exercise. What you need to do is try and determine using reverse odds analysis is who Vegas believes will cover the spread based on the line set. Easier said then done...

Have you ever seen a line in a game and thought to yourself "this looks too easy?" These are commonly known as "trap" games and this is what Vegas wants you to think. My advice when that ever occurs is pass on the game and move on. Sure the ocassional trap games does yield a positive result but in the long run YOU WILL NEVER WIN. The books will always be one step ahead of you.

The most classic example occured in the NFL on Sunday when the Dallas Cowboys were a 1 point favourite against the Colts. A 5-4 team was a one point favourite against a 9-0 team???????????? It is just so obvious, Vegas knew the Cowboys would win but had to set the line as such to get enough action on the Colts. What resulted was the public looking at the line on the Colts, thought to themselves "this is too good to be true" and proceeded to hand over their cash they used to back the Colts to the books. Essentially what Vegas was telling me was should the two teams play in a neutral venue, the Colts would have been a 2 point favourite, and if they had played in Indiana they would have been a 5 point favourite (using the 3 point differential as a rule of thumb). Good grief it's was so damn obvious.

Now the hard part - trying to identify those games that fit into the reverse odds strategy. Not every game will fit into this category. Another thing to note is the above strategy is most successful for American sports where there is most action seen and more money invoved to affect the lines of particular games. Don't even bother with tennis, it won't work IMO.

I've been using this method over the past few months with reasonable success (only paper bets though). I'm going to track my bets and see how I fare, no gurantees that I will make any money but would be interested to see what the results are. The downside is that my perception of the line may not necessarily equate to what Vegas are thinking.

Only sports I will be betting in here will be NBA and NFL.
I feel this goes with the majority of all U.S sports to be honest,to be honest somtimes the line actually tells you the outcome,funny to say but often TRUE!!
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Old 11-22-2006, 01:23 PM   #7
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

[quote]
Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
I know what you mean.
There is also another more fundamental reason why I play ML over spread, I am crap on spreads. I'm not ashamed to say it, but my figures say over the years say I hit over a season 50-55% on spreads, and 72-77% on ML. That's picking every match over a season.

So even though we all obviously pick and choose our spots and don't play every match, I know that I'm obviously not good enough picking spreads. So leave them.

Also, the numbers for ML teams priced at 1/3 or lower are pretty exceptional, and that's the kind of range I play mostly.

Quote:
In the cases where you like the underdog in a matchup do you take the points or take the ML?
If the points are in my favour, then I'll take the points. For example if I think an underdog will win and they are getting 6 pts, I won't risk the ML, because underdogs will rarely produce a blow out win, so you're going to have to sweat the comeback by the fav, so best take the points incase that comeback turns into a 1-3pt win for the fav.

If the underdog is only getting say 1 or 2 pts, then I am more likely to play ML on them. 3 or more and I'll take the points.

On the opposite side, I'll take a fav on the spread if they are -1, because there is no risk there in terms of them winning, they have to win by at least 1 pt so at worst I'll get my stake back (if they win).

Anything more though, and I play ML, because as I alluded to, I'm crap on spreads and I like to bet straightforward. I am not really a fan of taking handicaps in any sport NFL, tennis, football.....because you are going against what the intention of the team or player you are backing have.

They just want to win, a 1pt win is the same as a 20pt win at the end of the day, and I don't want to concern myself with a team scoring a garbage time TD and screwing up my spread bet.

That's my philosophy anyway. If I was good enough on spreads, my philosophy might have been different.
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Old 11-23-2006, 05:43 AM   #8
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

I missed out on posting today in the NBA

The line on the Cavs-Raptors opened at -3.5, 70% of public was on the Cavs yet the line moved to -/+2 come tipoff

Current eastern conference leaders laying only the 2 points at Toronto, classic scenario
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Old 11-23-2006, 06:07 AM   #9
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

BG, this theory seems roughly based on the one you had in that recent thread about 'fading the public' ...

I guess it comes down to thinking "where do the books WANT me to put my money?" .. I used to think the concept of 'trap games' was a myth .. But the examples you've used along with a couple of others in the NBA so far this season suggest it's a theory that holds true ..

Agree it's best to steer clear of the lines that appear too good to be true .. it's a no-brainer really if you can have that mentality of thinking like the bookies .. By looking at "spots" and situations teams enter games in, you can pick holes in seemingly good lines ..
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Old 11-24-2006, 05:34 AM   #10
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
I missed out on posting today in the NBA

The line on the Cavs-Raptors opened at -3.5, 70% of public was on the Cavs yet the line moved to -/+2 come tipoff

Current eastern conference leaders laying only the 2 points at Toronto, classic scenario
Hit the Nail right on the Coffin
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Old 11-24-2006, 05:35 AM   #11
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Flamboyant View Post
BG, this theory seems roughly based on the one you had in that recent thread about 'fading the public' ...

I guess it comes down to thinking "where do the books WANT me to put my money?" .. I used to think the concept of 'trap games' was a myth .. But the examples you've used along with a couple of others in the NBA so far this season suggest it's a theory that holds true ..

Agree it's best to steer clear of the lines that appear too good to be true .. it's a no-brainer really if you can have that mentality of thinking like the bookies .. By looking at "spots" and situations teams enter games in, you can pick holes in seemingly good lines ..
You are a quick learner
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Old 11-24-2006, 09:41 PM   #12
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

OK here we go, got one for today in an early game in the NBA and should have one in a late game as well. First posted play, in fact I am actually playing this one as well.

NBA Friday 24/11

Knicks to cover +4 v Celtics
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Old 11-25-2006, 01:52 AM   #13
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Flamboyant View Post
BG, this theory seems roughly based on the one you had in that recent thread about 'fading the public' ...
Not at all - the whole fading the public phenomenon still relies on you to go through the 'capping' process using some form of analysis etc but ensuring that the team you eventually back after your analysis is not a 'public' team.

As aforementioned, reverse odds analysis does away with all that analysis - Vegas has already done their detailed analysis and in most cases it is already built in within a particular line which they set.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Flamboyant View Post
I guess it comes down to thinking "where do the books WANT me to put my money?" .. I used to think the concept of 'trap games' was a myth .. But the examples you've used along with a couple of others in the NBA so far this season suggest it's a theory that holds true ..

Agree it's best to steer clear of the lines that appear too good to be true .. it's a no-brainer really if you can have that mentality of thinking like the bookies .. By looking at "spots" and situations teams enter games in, you can pick holes in seemingly good lines ..
Now you are getting the idea
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Old 11-25-2006, 01:55 AM   #14
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
OK here we go, got one for today in an early game in the NBA and should have one in a late game as well. First posted play, in fact I am actually playing this one as well.

NBA Friday 24/11

Knicks to cover +4 v Celtics
FT: Knicks 100-77 - WIN
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Old 11-25-2006, 06:17 AM   #15
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Default Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

Ever since I stumbled upon this site back in March, I've realised (through the posts of others) that there's so much more than meets the eye when it comes to successful sports betting .. It's almost like unlocking the Divinci Code ..
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