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Old 09-21-2006, 10:56 PM   #1
country flag Ernie_Money
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Default Week 4, Day 4

I have gotten smoked the last week and have not had a winning day since last Wednesday. I kind of consider last night to almost be a "winning day" because I took the night off and all 3 games I liked (but did not bet) all lost, so I am in the midst of a horrific losing slide, which happens a few times a year, and this is one time of the year when it can happen, the final 2 or 3 weeks of baseball, which gets unpredictable. I had my 3 1/2 hot run in MLB, and it appears to be over, but I will still look to pick my spots until the NHL and NBA seasons arrive. I may have to load up on an NFL teaser on Sunday to salvage the week. It is a marathon, not a sprint, and riding out the 4 or 5 ice cold stretches that pop up during the year are the key to betting success.

Let's try:

Florida/NY Mets over 7.5, laying $250 to win 282

Reasoning:

Slight breeze blowing out, but way more importantly, Pedro Martinez just isn't the same pitcher any more. He was savvy enough to get by in April and May to win games with average stuff, but now, due to injuries, he has very below-average stuff, and no amount of savvy in the world is going to be enough to fool major league hitters, unless you are left-handed (i.e. Jamie Moyer). It is just a matter of whether or not this young Marlins team goes up to the plate intimidated by who Pedro was, rather than who he is now. The marlins need to recognize the fact that Pedro has nothing and they should just be up at the plate ripping him. Anibal Sanchez has been amazing, but the Mets only need to get 4 or 5 runs here (shouldn't even need that if the marlins hit tonight) to put this game over the total, and the Marlins bullpen has been atrocious at times, so since I doubt Sanchez goes beyond 7 innings, this game does have a good chance of going over the low total. The Mets did get 3 off Sanchez 2 starts ago in Florida in 7 innings and 5 total for that game.

Record:

Week 4: 2-5, -$640
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
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Old 09-22-2006, 03:40 AM   #2
country flag TFan1156
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Default Re: Week 4, Day 4

I get all the Marlins games on FOX and was watching this one pulling for you. So many teeter right on the edge and when they aren`t falling your way, they just aren`t, and vica versa. I read that it is wise to decrease the size of bets when losing, increase when winning. That principle has helped me. Currently I think Seattle, the Orioles, and the Pirates will be getting some upsets. Am also looking at a lot of game with the under total in mind. I see the Jags/Colts as a good under play for Sunday.

Last edited by TFan1156 : 09-22-2006 at 03:42 AM.
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