Week 4, Day 1 - MensTennisForums.com

MensTennisForums.com

MenstennisForums.com is the premier Men's Tennis forum on the internet. Registered Users do not see the above ads.Please Register - It's Free!

Reply

Old 09-18-2006, 10:51 PM   #1
country flag Ernie_Money
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Age: 37
Posts: 68
Ernie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond repute
Default Week 4, Day 1

Took it on the chin yesterday with my NFL teaser, so I will look to hopefully bounce back this week and look to avoid the landmine next Sunday for my next teaser. However, this will at least give me the opportunity to explain what happens after a losing week.

I consider $1000 a week an "Ultimate Goal" to reach every week. I don't get fixated on it, I do NOT win that much every week (not even close) but it is an "ultimate" goal that I use as a "guide". So I will round up to the nearest $100 for the first 3 weeks and say that in Week 1, I fell $100 short of my "goal", Week 2, I fell $200 short, and Week 3, I fell $1600 short. So now I will spread those "losses" over the next 19 weeks, and now my goal for the next 19 weeks is to win $1100 a week. If I do reach that number before any of the upcoming weeks are over (i.e., if I am up $1100 on Thursday), I will say that Week 4 is "officially over, having met my goal", but I may opt to keep betting, establishing a "side pot" or starting Week 5 early, looking to chip away at that $1900 number by a few hundred bucks. The key is NOT to get obsessed with being "down $1900", because all that will do is make me "chase after that $1900" and that's where the trouble begins. Because hey, I really am not down $1900, I am up about $1300 for 3 weeks. So again, this is a "built-in" money management technique with this "betting system" that hopefully keeps me from chasing too much.

Just a side note: I cannot wait for the NHL and NBA to get here because this is a tough time of year to make money with baseball with managers resting players and starting rookies, etc. I will need to pick my spots and just try and keep my head above water until the NHL and NBA seasons provide me with more daily opportunities to make some dough.


Today I like 2 plays:

Florida/NY Mets over 9.5, laying $180 to win $150

Reasoning:

Brian Moehler and Steve Trachsel have been struggling, but so has the Mets offense. With a 15 mph breeze blowing out to LF at game time, I like the Mets offense to wake up tonight and get the win to clinch the division (finally) and I think they can score 7 or 8 tonight, so I just need the Marlins to put up 2 or 3 and this should cash.

Also will go to the NFL to pick:

Jacksonville Jaguars +3, laying $186 to win $150

Reasoning:

I am buying the half-point just to be on the safe side so I at least get the push if the Steelers win by 3. People are under-estimating how good Jacksonville is. I rarely use this logic when handicapping games, but cannot help it tonight, and that is this: After seeing how bad Miami was yesterday, how impressive was the Steelers' opening night win in hindsight? And after seeing Dallas destroy Washington last night, this makes the Jaguars' opening-day win more impressive, especially considering they were down 10-0 early in that game. Also throw in the fact that the Jaguars have played the Steelers tough the last 3 head-to-head meetings and I'll take a shot with the home dog.

Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
Ernie_Money is offline View My Blog!   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 

Old 09-18-2006, 11:30 PM   #2
country flag callitasicit
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Age: 41
Posts: 2,059
callitasicit has a reputation beyond reputecallitasicit has a reputation beyond reputecallitasicit has a reputation beyond reputecallitasicit has a reputation beyond reputecallitasicit has a reputation beyond reputecallitasicit has a reputation beyond reputecallitasicit has a reputation beyond reputecallitasicit has a reputation beyond reputecallitasicit has a reputation beyond reputecallitasicit has a reputation beyond reputecallitasicit has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Week 4, Day 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ernie_Money
Took it on the chin yesterday with my NFL teaser, so I will look to hopefully bounce back this week and look to avoid the landmine next Sunday for my next teaser. However, this will at least give me the opportunity to explain what happens after a losing week.

I consider $1000 a week an "Ultimate Goal" to reach every week. I don't get fixated on it, I do NOT win that much every week (not even close) but it is an "ultimate" goal that I use as a "guide". So I will round up to the nearest $100 for the first 3 weeks and say that in Week 1, I fell $100 short of my "goal", Week 2, I fell $200 short, and Week 3, I fell $1600 short. So now I will spread those "losses" over the next 19 weeks, and now my goal for the next 19 weeks is to win $1100 a week. If I do reach that number before any of the upcoming weeks are over (i.e., if I am up $1100 on Thursday), I will say that Week 4 is "officially over, having met my goal", but I may opt to keep betting, establishing a "side pot" or starting Week 5 early, looking to chip away at that $1900 number by a few hundred bucks. The key is NOT to get obsessed with being "down $1900", because all that will do is make me "chase after that $1900" and that's where the trouble begins. Because hey, I really am not down $1900, I am up about $1300 for 3 weeks. So again, this is a "built-in" money management technique with this "betting system" that hopefully keeps me from chasing too much.

Just a side note: I cannot wait for the NHL and NBA to get here because this is a tough time of year to make money with baseball with managers resting players and starting rookies, etc. I will need to pick my spots and just try and keep my head above water until the NHL and NBA seasons provide me with more daily opportunities to make some dough.


Today I like 2 plays:

Florida/NY Mets over 9.5, laying $180 to win $150

Reasoning:

Brian Moehler and Steve Trachsel have been struggling, but so has the Mets offense. With a 15 mph breeze blowing out to LF at game time, I like the Mets offense to wake up tonight and get the win to clinch the division (finally) and I think they can score 7 or 8 tonight, so I just need the Marlins to put up 2 or 3 and this should cash.

Also will go to the NFL to pick:

Jacksonville Jaguars +3, laying $186 to win $150

Reasoning:

I am buying the half-point just to be on the safe side so I at least get the push if the Steelers win by 3. People are under-estimating how good Jacksonville is. I rarely use this logic when handicapping games, but cannot help it tonight, and that is this: After seeing how bad Miami was yesterday, how impressive was the Steelers' opening night win in hindsight? And after seeing Dallas destroy Washington last night, this makes the Jaguars' opening-day win more impressive, especially considering they were down 10-0 early in that game. Also throw in the fact that the Jaguars have played the Steelers tough the last 3 head-to-head meetings and I'll take a shot with the home dog.

Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
I like both of your selections but opted to take the Mets on the money instead of the over. Also have a small wager on the Jags +3.5. Good luck Money.
callitasicit is offline View My Blog!   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2006, 02:55 AM   #3
country flag Ernie_Money
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Age: 37
Posts: 68
Ernie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond reputeErnie_Money has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Week 4, Day 1

I have lost 4 straight bets with 1 pending. Make it 2 pending. I will chase the Marlins/Mets loss with the Padres tonight:

San Diego Padres, laying $104 to win $100

Reasoning:

The Padres have owned LA this season, especially at LA, winning 7 of 8 and Peavy has been dominant against LA his last 7 starts against them. The Padres won both close games in this series, but got blown out in the other one, and Brad Penny has got knocked around by SD this year. This game will be close again, I suspect, but I'll take San Diego.
Ernie_Money is offline View My Blog!   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2006, 08:13 PM   #4
country flag TFan1156
Registered User
 
TFan1156's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 985
TFan1156 has a reputation beyond reputeTFan1156 has a reputation beyond reputeTFan1156 has a reputation beyond reputeTFan1156 has a reputation beyond reputeTFan1156 has a reputation beyond reputeTFan1156 has a reputation beyond reputeTFan1156 has a reputation beyond reputeTFan1156 has a reputation beyond reputeTFan1156 has a reputation beyond reputeTFan1156 has a reputation beyond reputeTFan1156 has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Week 4, Day 1

I feel your pain on that one, tough lose, circus ending.
TFan1156 is offline View My Blog!   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


Copyright (C) Verticalscope Inc
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
vBCredits v1.4 Copyright ©2007, PixelFX Studios