I would like to see a competitive Federer but, if I were betting, early round losses are more likely. Roger seems to no longer play mentally free. Overheads are a key shot to watch in judging the GOAT's mental state. If Federer continually fails to place overheads well all is lost.
The problem for Federer in 2014 is he will have to play a top 4 guy in the QF. If that is Ferrer, no problem. Otherwise, QF exit. Federer lucked out in 2012 when Nadal was absent for half the year, and Djokovic was sub-par.
How did Federer 'luck out'
Most of Federer's success was in the first half of 2012.