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Old 12-28-2012, 11:29 PM   #61
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Lenders View Post
Betfair usually has the best odds and here's what they have for the title - top 10 favorites.

Djokovic - 2.54
Murray - 4.9
Federer - 6.6
Nadal - 11
Del Potro - 18

Ferrer - 42
Berdych - 75
Tsonga - 85
Raonic - 120
Janowicz - 130



I mostly agree with the top 5 - although I believe Murray and Federer should at least be closer - and agree that they should be far ahead of the rest, but after that it's a bit bizarre. Ferrer (far) ahead of Berdych and Tsonga - who reached the final here in 2008 and beat all of the top 4 at AO bar Federer? Janowicz as one of the top 10 favorites?
more reasons to bet on Fed instead of Mandy.
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Old 12-28-2012, 11:31 PM   #62
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Lenders View Post
It's simple really: he's a better tennis player than Ferrer any way you look at it. He's 7 years younger and already had surgery and yet has far better achievements and victories and is far more capable of defeating the current top guys.

Odds are not made by MTF Ferrer fanboys but by people who need to put their money where their mouth is; no one who values their money could ever rate Ferrer anywhere near Delpo to win any Slam title - it's not like Delpo is likely to win the AO at all, but he could (slim chance of course) do it, Ferrer can't - he could play the very best tennis he's capable of and he still wouldn't have a chance.
Re: Ferrer ---Not strictly true if he had a favorable draw in 1st week then had Tipsy in the last 8 then a SF vs Berdych ( say Berdych beats Fed in Qfs) then plays final against Murray lets say who killed himself in the QFs vs whoever than kills himslef again in his semi win against Novak and hasn't got enough left for final....Ferrer would have a chance! unlikely sure? but not impossible.

Its unlikely DelPo would only have to play 1 of top 3, he will almost certainly need to play 2 of them at least. which makes his road very tough especially considering this is not 2009.
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Old 12-29-2012, 03:43 AM   #63
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

After all bookies still set the rates to get the most money.. of course it isn't necessarily correct
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Old 12-29-2012, 06:35 AM   #64
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Draw and odds doesnt matter really, Nole will storm this AO w.o any probs.
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Old 12-29-2012, 12:04 PM   #65
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

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Originally Posted by duong View Post
personally if I liked to bet (which I don't), and with such odds, I would clearly put a bet on Ferrer here.

I really do think that he has a chance from everything we've seen in recent months and from what he's already done in the AO.

I really don't get what reasonably makes that Del Po has better odds than him except that he won a slam 3 years ago.
He's proven he can beat the top 4.

Ferrer hasn't.

To have a remote chance in a GS you would need to beat 2 of these guys (Pony included) and that's smth Ferrer can't do imo, while Pony could.
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Old 12-29-2012, 12:10 PM   #66
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Lenders View Post
It's simple really: he's a better tennis player than Ferrer any way you look at it. He's 7 years younger and already had surgery and yet has far better achievements and victories and is far more capable of defeating the current top guys.

Odds are not made by MTF Ferrer fanboys but by people who need to put their money where their mouth is; no one who values their money could ever rate Ferrer anywhere near Delpo to win any Slam title - it's not like Delpo is likely to win the AO at all, but he could (slim chance of course) do it, Ferrer can't - he could play the very best tennis he's capable of and he still wouldn't have a chance.
Ferrer is not even among my 10 favorite players. I do actually prefer Del Po and Tsonga than Ferrer

It's you who have a personal problem about Ferrer

I'm just rational and as was showed many times with rational facts, there's nothing rational behind the idea that Del Po or Berdych would have more chance against top-players than Ferrer, or even worse that "they're clearly better players than Ferrer".

That's purely subjective impressions

Ferrer has had a great record in last months, was very near from the AO final in 2011 and gave many problems to the AO winner Djokovic in first set of their QF last year.

I really don't see what Del Po has done in recent months to be 5th and much ahead of the others in the odds.

just because he defeated Federer and Ferrer did not ? And when Simon defeated Federer, were his odds that good ? And Canas ? is Federer the ultimate referrence ? Ferrer has a match-up and a complex problem against Federer and still was very near from him in the WTF. Ferrer is 5-9 against Djokovic, Del Po is 2-7. Ferrer is 5-6 against Murray, Del Po is 1-5. And Djokovic and Murray are the first two favorites of the AO according to all odds. And I will not tell you Ferrer's record against Del Po, Berdych and Tsonga

There's a whole irrational behaviour towards Ferrer which I don't understand, not only from you. It's a kind of sadistic game or something but I don't find it funny at all, I generally don't like sadism
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Last edited by duong : 12-29-2012 at 02:11 PM.
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Old 12-29-2012, 12:23 PM   #67
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

New odds:

Djokovic - 2.24

Murray - 4.5

Federer - 5.8

Del Potro - 18.5

Ferrer - 40

Berdych - 75

Tsonga - 85

Raonic - 120 <--- sad
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:10 PM   #68
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Juz78 View Post
New odds:

Djokovic - 2.24

Murray - 4.5

Federer - 5.8

Del Potro - 18.5

Ferrer - 40

Berdych - 75

Tsonga - 85

Raonic - 120 <--- sad
Where are these odds from?

p.s. Djokovic will start with less than 2.00 the tournament the way it's going.
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:29 PM   #69
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Juz78 View Post
New odds:

Djokovic - 2.24

Murray - 4.5

Federer - 5.8

Del Potro - 18.5


Ferrer - 40

Berdych - 75

Tsonga - 85

Raonic - 120 <--- sad

Only true contenders.
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:36 PM   #70
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

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Originally Posted by latso View Post
Where are these odds from?

p.s. Djokovic will start with less than 2.00 the tournament the way it's going.
http://sports.betfair.com/?ex=2&mi=1...13&oldios=safe
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:39 PM   #71
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

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Originally Posted by latso View Post
Where are these odds from?

p.s. Djokovic will start with less than 2.00 the tournament the way it's going.
Unlikely. Even Nadal at Roland Garros (before this year) is usually just under 2.00. Unless Murray and Fed pull out, Nole will remain around 2.2
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Old 12-29-2012, 01:45 PM   #72
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

if nole wont get murray in the SF his chances are at best to win this slam
if fed will only have to win murray or nole, his Odds will be so much better esp if he wont meet birdy in QF or something.

A lot depends on the draw IMHO
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Old 12-29-2012, 02:55 PM   #73
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Default Re: Do you agree with current Australian Open odds?

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Originally Posted by Abel View Post
Unlikely. Even Nadal at Roland Garros (before this year) is usually just under 2.00. Unless Murray and Fed pull out, Nole will remain around 2.2
He's already 2.08 at Pinna, which is a bookie unlike the fair and it's usually one to consider when speaking tennis betting.

Perhaps you're right, but it all comes to the draw at the end of the day. If Ferru on his side - he will be under level imo
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