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Old 11-06-2012, 06:43 PM   #31
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

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Originally Posted by Chip & Charge View Post
Do you include the Davis Cup in that? I haven't included them in my spreadsheet sorry
Yes, I include all official ATP matches, and DC are a part of them. So Isner is listed as having 41-18 here:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/P...sner.aspx?t=mr

I didn't realize at first you didn't, thought you forgot Isner's last tournament (three TBs) and just had an error for Fognini.

Makes one's life much easier to include them, since official ATP stats will agree with yours except in case of errors. But if you want to make one without, then there's nothing wrong with that.
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Old 11-06-2012, 07:34 PM   #32
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

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Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
This again shows how clutch Nadal is, having such a huge percentage (in his career it's pretty high as well I believe) without a big serve that can help him out.
You need reaffirmation or something that he is truly clutch? Obviously he keeps the ball in play when it matters most, but regardless, Federer and Djokovic still have higher career tiebreak stats with Federer at the top with .657, Djokovic in 4th with .629 and Nadal in 5th with .626, though I would love to see these stats split by surfaces.
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Old 11-06-2012, 07:45 PM   #33
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

US Open Murray was insane in tiebreaks
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Old 11-06-2012, 07:49 PM   #34
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

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Originally Posted by HKz View Post
You need reaffirmation or something that he is truly clutch? Obviously he keeps the ball in play when it matters most, but regardless, Federer and Djokovic still have higher career tiebreak stats with Federer at the top with .657, Djokovic in 4th with .629 and Nadal in 5th with .626, though I would love to see these stats split by surfaces.
Nadal - Federer TBs by surface is interesting:

Clay: Nadal 6-3 (H2H 12-2)
HC: Nadal 3-2 (H2H 5-6)
Grass: Federer 5-1 (H2H 2-1)

Total 10-10.

They have played surprisingly few TBs on HC.
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:17 PM   #35
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

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Originally Posted by TigerTim View Post
US Open Murray was insane in tiebreaks
He kind of died, sadly.
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:40 PM   #36
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

Clutchray
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:14 PM   #37
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

The opening post is ridiculous because deprived of the best tie-break player this year - Darcis (18-4 record). Players like Zemlja and Sijsling aren't worth mentioning because they didn't play even 10 tie-breaks at the main level in 2012. Djokovic only at Wimbledon 2007 played more tie-breaks than Zemlja or Sijsling in the entire 2012
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:22 PM   #38
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

BTW, Isner is the first man in history to win at least 40 tie-breaks within a season, I mentioned it here
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Old 11-07-2012, 12:36 AM   #39
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

It's interesting: Raonic has a higher probability than Isner to win a point on serve
and on return. However, his TB record for this season is 56% which is close to the number which you would expect from his statistical data.
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Old 11-07-2012, 09:39 AM   #40
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

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Originally Posted by stebs View Post
There is nothing in the structure of the tie-break that gives advantage to the servers more than regular sets. The only reasonable and defensible reason that TB's are 'better' for big servers is that they have more practice in them (but even this is barely borne out by statistical evidence). The serve being easier to perform under pressure is another plausible hypothesis, but it turns out to be false: http://heavytopspin.com/category/tiebreaks/. This blog (not mine) has some perceptive analyses about tie-breaks but the 'tie-breaks structurally favour big servers' hypothesis does not gain support from the myriad statistical evidence the author examines. It really irks me when TV commentators pull out this line, the perpetuation of myths isn't good for understanding a game.
Not sure about this. To me it makes sense the best servers would have an advantage. They are far more likely to win service games to 0 or 15, after all. In a normal set that doesn't make any difference as holding your service games is all that counts, whether it's to 0 or to 30. But in a tie-breaker, if you're less likely to lose points on serve, that does make a difference as the breaker is a matter of points. Of course you could make the same case about the best returners, but even in today's conditions, the serve is more powerful than the return, and the best servers win more points on serve than the best returners on return.
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:00 AM   #41
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

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Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
Wow no Federer? Can't recall seeing him lose a tiebreak like....ever
for Fed with 59% tiebreak wins it has been the first average tiebreak stat year since 2003 (61% in 2001, 62% in 2002, 61% in 2003) :

it was 81% in 2004, 72% in 2005, 73% in 2006, 75% in 2007, 66% in 2008, 70% in 2009, 68% in 2010, 69% in 2011

(courtesy of someone I don't remember, Litotes I think for all years before the final years)

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Originally Posted by Chip & Charge View Post
Federer has played 31 tie breaks this year winning 61.29% of them which puts him 18th on the list. He has dropped a few tie-breaks to people he shouldn't have this year: Ungur, Benneteau, Roddick & Bellucci. He has also dropped a couple to Raonic in there matches
32 (19-13) including the tiebreak lost to Isner in Davis cup : I see now that you didn't include Davis cup, which explains our difference

against Raonic, he won two decisive tiebreaks, that's the most important he lost the first set ones
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:11 AM   #42
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

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Not sure about this. To me it makes sense the best servers would have an advantage. They are far more likely to win service games to 0 or 15, after all. In a normal set that doesn't make any difference as holding your service games is all that counts, whether it's to 0 or to 30. But in a tie-breaker, if you're less likely to lose points on serve, that does make a difference as the breaker is a matter of points. Of course you could make the same case about the best returners, but even in today's conditions, the serve is more powerful than the return, and the best servers win more points on serve than the best returners on return.
If one player can consistently win a greater % of service and return points than another, they should be winning that match-up regardless of whether tie-breaks are required. It is very rare for a player to win a match in which they win less points than their opponent. We must not mix-up 'better servers', with 'better players'. You say it doesn't matter whether one holds to 0 or to 30, that's true. Over time though, it's the percentages that matter. A player who averages 30 in return games is winning 33.33% of return points. A player who averages zero is (obviously) winning 0% of return points. The first player will (usually) break serve at some stage, while the other player never will. I realise this is obvious, but it is necessary to understand this point. When Nadal/Djokovic/Murray plays a big server, the big server DOES NOT consistently hold serve more easily than they do. If they did, then they would hold an advantage over the match-up tout court, not just if it reached a tie-break.

I mean, how on earth do you suggest the top of the game is dominated by great returners if you really believe that the big servers are both 'far more likely to win their service games to 0 or 15' AND hold an advantage in tie-breaks? The only plausible way this could take be consistent is if the good returners were always holding to 30 or to deuce, and then occasionally breaking whilst usually being shut out on return. Not only does this defy common sense, but it also is not borne out by evidence. When two players play, the one who wins the most points overall almost always wins. Winning the most points is a function of both serve and return, the EXACT SAME SKILLS that win points in a tie-break.
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:11 AM   #43
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

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Isner and Murray are the most impressive. No surprise to see the top spots occupied by people who played <15 tiebreaks, winning a high % after playing 20+ is a lot more difficult.
the carreer recordman has played 52 tiebreaks : Pablo Cuevas (73%, that is 38-14)

only player with better stats than Fed among those who played more than 50 tiebreaks as far as I know.

Unfortunately injured this year
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:15 AM   #44
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

Different dynamics among top-players :

- Djokovic has been bad in tiebreaks for 2 years after being the second best after Fed before
- Murray and Nadal have been very good in that exercise in last years, Murray was very good in 2007-2008 (76% in 2007, 70% in 2008) but was bad in 2009-2010 (54% in 2009, 40% in 2010 !), came back to better stats in last 2 years
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Old 11-07-2012, 10:25 AM   #45
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Default Re: 2012 Tie-break Kings

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Originally Posted by GSMnadal View Post
This again shows how clutch Nadal is, having such a huge percentage (in his career it's pretty high as well I believe) without a big serve that can help him out.
Nadal has always had good stats in his service games and not that good stats in his returning games, which just shows that his serve was not bad at all.

Comparing to a Murray or Djokovic (rather return-oriented players), he has always been a more serve-oriented player.

And his serve has improved in recent years, I've seen many sets in recent years where he just stayed there thanks to his serve.

And actually his tiebreak stats were not that good in the past, they have improved in recent years coincidentally with his serve improvements.
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