[Roy Emerson]

Probably #4.

[yesh222]

If Rafa is actually out all the way until the WTF (or even until next year) then it might be #5. Ferrer could reach semis in both Shanghai and Paris as the #4 seed.

[guichard]

Originally Posted by yesh222

If Rafa is actually out all the way until the WTF (or even until next year) then it might be #5. Ferrer could reach semis in both Shanghai and Paris as the #4 seed.

nope, ferrer will not overtake nadal with semi at uso/shangai/paris/WTF

[Lopez]

As the US Open nears it's end, we will see a change in the rankings. Andy Murray is now ranked nr.3 in the live rankings.

In the race rankings he is 910 points behind Nadal. Winning the USO would give him 800 points more, so he'd be close to level with Nadal. Barring very weird results (or perhaps an emotional collapse from Murray for the rest of the season if he loses again), Murray will very likely pass Nadal in the race rankings by the end of the year.

David Ferrer is 2100 behind Nadal. Highly unlikely that he will pass Nadal but it's theoretically possible. Other top players might tank/skip Paris for instance and Ferrer might take it, giving him 1000 points. Good results at other tournaments and he might pass Nadal. Looks very unlikely though.

[Ash86]

Yup - looks like no.1 Novak; no.2 Fed; no.3 Murray; no. 4 Nadal. Will be interesting to see how Aus Open draw pans out - will hope for a Nadal/Federer semi draw - getting Nadal/Novak in the semis after the epic final last year would be a real shame. Add to that Federer being most vulnerable at HC slams these days - on the slow Aus Open court he's the easiest opponent of the top 4 so both Murray and Nadal will be hoping to be in his side of the draw.

[rocketassist]

Originally Posted by Ash86

Yup - looks like no.1 Novak; no.2 Fed; no.3 Murray; no. 4 Nadal. Will be interesting to see how Aus Open draw pans out - will hope for a Nadal/Federer semi draw - getting Nadal/Novak in the semis after the epic final last year would be a real shame. Add to that Federer being most vulnerable at HC slams these days - on the slow Aus Open court he's the easiest opponent of the top 4 so both Murray and Nadal will be hoping to be in his side of the draw.

Noledal matches are like games of Pong these days- boring. I hope they're in the same half in January so we don't have to suffer it as a GS final.

[Ash86]

Originally Posted by rocketassist

Noledal matches are like games of Pong these days- boring. I hope they're in the same half in January so we don't have to suffer it as a GS final.

Well it would help Murray so I'm not surprised you'd want that. Murray/Djokovic matches aren't much different - baseline slugfests. Murray/Nadal usually has more variety/net play but still they're all defensive baseliners.

[Lopez]

Originally Posted by Ash86

Yup - looks like no.1 Novak; no.2 Fed; no.3 Murray; no. 4 Nadal. Will be interesting to see how Aus Open draw pans out - will hope for a Nadal/Federer semi draw - getting Nadal/Novak in the semis after the epic final last year would be a real shame. Add to that Federer being most vulnerable at HC slams these days - on the slow Aus Open court he's the easiest opponent of the top 4 so both Murray and Nadal will be hoping to be in his side of the draw.

I don't think anyone hopes to see Federer in their draw, even now when he's older. There's still the possibility of him catching fire. Out of the other players in the top 4, I'd maybe say that only Nadal would prefer to have Roger in the semis over Nole, not over Murray.

Originally Posted by Ash86

Well it would help Murray so I'm not surprised you'd want that. Murray/Djokovic matches aren't much different - baseline slugfests. Murray/Nadal usually has more variety/net play but still they're all defensive baseliners.

I'd say Murray/Djokovic matches have a bit more character than Rafole matches. Rafole matches can be epic baseline slugfests and great to watch now and again, but variety is nice. Rafa and Nole both clearly have the same gameplan in all their matches (Rafa - dominate with the forehand from the backhand corner, look for forehand to forehand rallies: Nole - hit it to the backhand deep and with spin, wait for the short ball) and the points can be carbon copies of each other.

[Ash86]

Originally Posted by Lopez

I don't think anyone hopes to see Federer in their draw, even now when he's older. There's still the possibility of him catching fire. Out of the other players in the top 4, I'd maybe say that only Nadal would prefer to have Roger in the semis over Nole, not over Murray.

The only options are Nadal/Federer or Nadal/Djokovic (or Murray/Djokovic, Murray/Federer) - in that scenario both would prefer facing Fed rather than Novak I think. Even if Novak could face Fed in the SF I think he'd prefer it to Murray or Nadal - both his last Aus Open matches versus the other two went 5 sets while he's beat Fed in straights on the Aus Open surface in their last 2 meetings. Just think on the slow high bouncing hard court Fed is at the greatest disadvantage.

It would differ if we're discussing clay, grass etc. - then clearly Murray is more preferable as an opponent than Federer.

[guichard]

Originally Posted by Ash86

Yup - looks like no.1 Novak; no.2 Fed; no.3 Murray; no. 4 Nadal. Will be interesting to see how Aus Open draw pans out - will hope for a Nadal/Federer semi draw - getting Nadal/Novak in the semis after the epic final last year would be a real shame. Add to that Federer being most vulnerable at HC slams these days - on the slow Aus Open court he's the easiest opponent of the top 4 so both Murray and Nadal will be hoping to be in his side of the draw.

Murray has won just one set of Federer in slams including AO so...

[Topspindoctor]

I kinda hope Nadal drops down in ranking far enough to meet Olderer early in slams and end his pathetic run of consecutive QF's where he beats chokers, mugs, clowns, wild cards, lucky losers and journeymen to bullshit his way into the second week. Nadal taking out Olderer in R3-R4 of a slam would be and would surely improve the tournament and distress the Fedtards.

[EliSter]

Originally Posted by Topspindoctor

I kinda hope Nadal drops down in ranking far enough to meet Olderer early in slams and end his pathetic run of consecutive QF's where he beats chokers, mugs, clowns, wild cards, lucky losers and journeymen to bullshit his way into the second week. Nadal taking out Olderer in R3-R4 of a slam would be and would surely improve the tournament and distress the Fedtards.

That would be hilarious.

[Freak3yman84]

Originally Posted by Topspindoctor

I kinda hope Nadal drops down in ranking far enough to meet Olderer early in slams and end his pathetic run of consecutive QF's where he beats chokers, mugs, clowns, wild cards, lucky losers and journeymen to bullshit his way into the second week. Nadal taking out Olderer in R3-R4 of a slam would be and would surely improve the tournament and distress the Fedtards.

Nadal vs Fed R1! It would be epic to say the least.

[Ash86]

Originally Posted by guichard

Murray has won just one set of Federer in slams including AO so...

Neither Federer nor Murray are the same players they were in 2010. Things have moved on. To me Fed is the most vulnerable at slams to an upset - Murray's been very consistent since US Open 2010 shock loss to Wawrinka (lost to Fed, Nadal, Djokovic and once to Ferrer at RG only) whilst Fed has lost to Berdych twice and Tsonga as well as the usual Rafole combo. [Sure Nadal had the worst upset at Wimbledon but for now it seems like an anomaly amongst his other slam results of the last 2 years.]

No way saying that Fed is an easy pass, just that in best of 5, seven matches, 2 weeks, Fed's lost a step understandably. From here on out apart from RG I see Federer being the more preferable opponent rather than Murray in a slam semi. Murray can make you stay out there for 5 hours killing yourself. Fed needs to go to God-mode (like he did in the Wimby final) or will usually shank himself out of the match.

Just my impression. Murray could bomb tomorrow and in the Aus Open to prove that totally wrong. Who knows.

[TigerTim]

Originally Posted by Ash86

Neither Federer nor Murray are the same players they were in 2010. Things have moved on. To me Fed is the most vulnerable at slams to an upset - Murray's been very consistent since US Open 2010 shock loss to Wawrinka (lost to Fed, Nadal, Djokovic and once to Ferrer at RG only) whilst Fed has lost to Berdych twice and Tsonga as well as the usual Rafole combo. [Sure Nadal had the worst upset at Wimbledon but for now it seems like an anomaly amongst his other slam results of the last 2 years.]

No way saying that Fed is an easy pass, just that in best of 5, seven matches, 2 weeks, Fed's lost a step understandably. From here on out apart from RG I see Federer being the more preferable opponent rather than Murray in a slam semi. Murray can make you stay out there for 5 hours killing yourself. Fed needs to go to God-mode (like he did in the Wimby final) or will usually shank himself out of the match.

Just my impression. Murray could bomb tomorrow and in the Aus Open to prove that totally wrong. Who knows.

good post.