[Sunset of Age]

Originally Posted by NYCtennisfan

Good post. Federer will probably wind up not playing Monte Carlo, Toronto, and one of Paris/Shanghai. Djokovic will probably play all of them which means it will be very, very difficult to finish #1 unless Djokovic really falters. IF Federer wins Cincy, it will be a 50-50 proposition until the end of the season. If Djokovic wins the title here, he's in the catbird's seat for YE #1 unleass he loses in the QF or earlier at the USO, and I can't see that happening.

Good post, as usual.

Originally Posted by Minnie

^^^
Exactly! Surprised to read that comment from Karin in all honesty. The sort of thing I'd expect to read in the media, of course

To be honest, I get sick of reading about Nadal's knees .... we always seem to hear about them some time after a "shock loss". Well, for me it wasn't a shock loss - Rosol would have beaten any of the other top 3 guys that playing the way he was.

Roger deserves 100% credit and respect for what he's done to get back to No 1 .. no if's, no but's ....

My comment did not have anything to do with my personal commisserations about Rafa's 'knees' (or whatever might be bothering him, most of all, that *horrid* bunch of dad/uncles/whatever of the Nadalian Maffia Mob I think ) - it was a mere kind remembering of the fact that one' s personal achievements aren't always in one's own hands.
As much as I acknowledge Roger's FANTASTIC achievments of the past couple of months, helping him back to #1 and #17 (), I just think it's fair to acknowledge that Nadal's current downfall played a roll in that as well.

No hard feelings, not at all. Just my sincere opinion .
My kind regards to ye all, and let's just hope for the BEST tomorrow against Djoko.

[NYCtennisfan]

Originally Posted by Litotes

We'll know more after USO. If Federer wins Cincy and then USO off Murray in the final, he would have a commanding lead, and can afford dropping another Masters. And Djokovic losing once to Fed and once to Murray wouldn't in my mind constitute "really faltering".

I mentioned above that it's a different story altogether if Federer wins Cincy -- it would be a 50-50 proposition from here on in if that were the case. If Djokovic wins Cincy, then it's an uphill battle regardless. While it could definitely happening, the scenario in which Federer wins the USO and Djokovic loses int he SFs is closer to a "best case scenario" than a "likely scenario." Of course, Federer winning the USO over Djokovic would put the race close to 50-50 as well. Djokovic winning Cincy and the USO would pretty much clinch it for him unless he were to not do anything at all afterwards.

[kenneth79]

Fed confirmed in the American TV post-match interview that getting YE #1 was not his top priority. They specifically asked him and he said that he was at a different stage than the other main contenders ie. he was 5 years [needs more time to recover/rest] older and had a family. It seems to me he wont compromise his main goals just to have a better chance at the YE # 1. Ditching Bercy might give him an edge in London!

[NYCtennisfan]

Originally Posted by kenneth79

Fed confirmed in the American TV post-match interview that getting YE #1 was not his top priority. They specifically asked him and he said that he was at a different stage than the other main contenders ie. he was 5 years [needs more time to recover/rest] older and had a family. It seems to me he wont compromise his main goals just to have a better chance at the YE # 1. Ditching Bercy might give him an edge in London!

I don't think any player in his 30s has ever finished as the YE #1 in the ATP rankings. Agassi, Connors, and Lendl all came close to doing it but couldn't quite get there. A great player such as Djokovic in his prime is historically expected to finish the year #1. Federer has his priorities and goals calibrated perfectly.

[JediFed]

Oldest year end world number one:

Lendl (29) 1989
Agassi (29) 1999
Federer (28) 2009
Nastase (27) 1973
Sampras (27) 1998

Will have to check who was the closest.

[Litotes]

Originally Posted by NYCtennisfan

I mentioned above that it's a different story altogether if Federer wins Cincy -- it would be a 50-50 proposition from here on in if that were the case. If Djokovic wins Cincy, then it's an uphill battle regardless. While it could definitely happening, the scenario in which Federer wins the USO and Djokovic loses int he SFs is closer to a "best case scenario" than a "likely scenario." Of course, Federer winning the USO over Djokovic would put the race close to 50-50 as well. Djokovic winning Cincy and the USO would pretty much clinch it for him unless he were to not do anything at all afterwards.

Of course, I am not saying Federer is automatic favourite to take both. I was just saying it doesn't take an earthquake to dislodge Djokovic. It will be an interesting race - unless, as you say, Djokovic wins both Cincy and USO. That would all but decide things. Federer most probably cannot defend all his indoor points from last year with no break between Paris and London.

[duong]

Originally Posted by Greenday

Fed is now guaranteed to stay No.1 for 3 more weeks (until the end of US Open)...then it obviously will depend on Novak's and Fed's results during US Open.

that is 294 weeks at number 1

+ if Fed won against Djokovic tonight, he would be guaranteed to stay number 1 after the US Open (even if he loses in first round and Djokovic wins the title) and until after Beijing ATP500, that is 298 weeks.

He would be nearly guaranteed the 300 weeks at number 1.

Originally Posted by Sunset of Age

I do think it's pretty fair to acknowledge that he wouldn't have managed that without some kind of unfortunate 'help' from a certain other guy, though... and damn me for saying it, Roger's glory makes me as happy as Said Other Guy's misfortune makes me , for this matter.

it's not fair at all imo : it's assuming Nadal would have won Wimbledon ... which is going very very very far away from fair imo. It is not a "due" for anyone to win Wimbledon.

What you say could be said for 2009 but it has nothing to do with the picture this year.

What would be FAIR if you want would be to say that Fed would not have achieved that number 1 without the blue clay in Madrid if you want to consider that Fed would not have won Madrid and Nadal would have fairly won it

Originally Posted by Sunset of Age

As much as I acknowledge Roger's FANTASTIC achievments of the past couple of months, helping him back to #1 and #17 (), I just think it's fair to acknowledge that Nadal's current downfall played a roll in that as well.

no that's where you make a mistake : it didn't play any role in Fed getting the number 1 this year, contrary to what happened in 2009.

Unless you consider Nadal was guaranteed to win Wimbledon this year defeating everybody including Rosol, Kohlschreiber, Tsonga, Murray in semi and Fed in final

[duong]

Originally Posted by NYCtennisfan

If Djokovic wins the title here, he's in the catbird's seat for YE #1 unleass he loses in the QF or earlier at the USO, and I can't see that happening.

no he would be 1000 points ahead in the Race, but if Fed wins the US Open he gets back around equal to him.

Then in the rest of the year both can get points even if Djokovic is more likely to play Beijing+Shanghai and get points there, but the indoor season is better for Fed.

And Djokovic is no superhuman, he can get tired as well ...

Only after the US Open you can maybe say something like that. Tonight is important but not as much as the US Open.

[duong]

For your information, before the final, Federer would have 6545 ranking points with the old ranking system (2000-2008), which is around what he had in the end of 2004 (6335) and 2005 (6725), only less than what he had in 2006 (8370) and 2007 (7180).

It's big ! just to represent you what he has done for one year not even considering how unbelievable it is to do that for a 31 year-old player.

Nadal achieved his impressive number 1-years 2008 and 2010 with 6675 points, which is what Fed would have if he won Cinci tonight.

Fyi, Djokovic finished last year with 7135 points.

PS : I keep on calculating the rankings with the old ranking system in the meantime.

[duong]

If Fed wins tonight, it would also be the first time since 2006 that he wins 3 MS1000 tournaments in one calendar year (and he would even hold 4 of them )

[Litotes]

Originally Posted by duong

PS : I keep on calculating the rankings with the old ranking system in the meantime.

Do you have spreadsheets with these for each year? Would be fun to see

[duong]

Originally Posted by Litotes

Do you have spreadsheets with these for each year? Would be fun to see

no but here's what I've got for the end of years (precision : at the current moment Federer has 6545 points ahead of Djokovic 6200, Nadal 4775 and Murray 4415) (other precision : in lists from to 2009 to 2011, players are ordered according to their rankings with the new ranking system) :

2009 :

Federer	Nadal	Djokovic	Murray	Del Potro	Davydenko	Roddick	Söderling	Verdasco	Tsonga	Gonzalez	Stepanek	Monfils	Cilic	Simon
5 765	5 205	5 005	4 305	3 855	3 000	2 860	2 308	2 445	2 030	2 035	1 755	1 653	1 785	1 765

2010 :

Nadal	Federer	Djokovic	Murray	Söderling	Berdych	Ferrer	Roddick	Verdasco	Youzhny	Melzer	Monfils	Tsonga	Cilic	Almagro
6 695	5 430	3 895	3 440	3 425	2 515	2 485	2 325	2 200	1 990	1 980	1 675	1 660	1 620	1 565

2011 :

Djokovic	Nadal	Federer	Murray	Ferrer	Tsonga	Berdych	Fish	Tipsarevic Almagro	Del Potro	Simon	Söderling	Roddick	Dolgopolov
7 135	5 495	4 935	4 390	3 120	2 925	2 540	2 110	1 860	1 615	1 580	1 555	1 685	1 405	1 400

and for the previous years when the old system was still active :

2003

Roddick	Federer	Ferrero	Agassi	Coria	Schuettler	Moya	Nalbandian	Philippoussis	Grosjean	Srichaphan	Massu	Novak	El Aynaoui	Henman
4 535	4 375	4 205	3 425	3 330	3 205	2 280	2 060	1 615	1 610	1 595	1 559	1 510	1 480	1 480

2004 :

Federer	Roddick	Hewitt	Safin	Moya	Henman	Coria	Agassi	Nalbandian Gaudio J. Johansson	Canas	Robredo	Hrbaty	Grosjean
6 335	3 655	3 590	3 060	2 520	2 465	2 400	2 100	1 945	1 920	1 595	1 595	1 465	1 380	1 370

2005 :

Federer	Nadal	Roddick	Hewitt	Davydenko	Nalbandian Agassi	Coria	Ljubicic	Gaudio	Gonzalez	Puerta/Safin	T. Johansson	Ferrer	Ginepri
6 725	4 765	3 085	2 490	2 390	2 370	2 275	2 190	2 180	2 050	1 790	1 730	1 645	1 620	1 520

2006 :

Federer	Nadal	Davydenko	Blake	Ljubicic	Roddick	Robredo	Nalbandian Ancic	Gonzalez	Haas	Baghdatis	Berdych	Ferrer	Nieminen
8 370	4 470	2 825	2 530	2 495	2 415	2 375	2 295	2 060	2 015	1 890	1 860	1 705	1 475	1 460

2007 :

Federer	Nadal	Djokovic	Davydenko	Ferrer	Roddick	Gonzalez	Gasquet	Nalbandian	Robredo	Murray	Haas	Blake 	Berdych	Canas
7 180	5 735	4 470	2 825	2 750	2 530	2 005	1 930	1 775	1 765	1 755	1 720	1 710	1 685	1 653

2008 :

Nadal	Federer	Djokovic	Murray	Davydenko	Tsonga	Simon	Roddick	Del Potro	Blake 	Nalbandian	Ferrer	Wawrinka	Monfils	Gonzalez
6 675	5 305	5 295	3 720	2 715	2 050	1 980	1 970	1 945	1 775	1 725	1 695	1 510	1 475	1 420

and here's what I've got for the maximum number of points reached at a moment of the year by each player who reached more than 2000 points since 2000 :

Federer 8370 (20.11.06) Nadal 7845 (11.05.09) Djokovic 7785 (12.09.11) Murray 5505 (24.08.09) Agassi 5208 (03.04.00) Hewitt 5205 (12.08.02) Roddick 5185 (02.08.04, n2) 
Kuerten 4750 (10.09.01) Ferrero 4570 (20.10.03) Safin 4300 (03.05.01) Del Potro 3845 (11.01.10, n4) Coria 3770 (5.07.04, n3) Söderling 3760 (21.02.11, n4) 
Sampras 3739 (23.10.00, n1) Norman 3610 (17.07.00, n2) Davydenko 3525 (22.03.10, n6) Tsonga 3500 (06.08.12, n6) Nalbandian 3360 (12.06.06, n3) 
Ferrer 3350 (16.07.12, n5) Ljubicic 3315 (21.08.06, n3) Schuettler 3205 (17.11.03, n6) Moya 3160 (09.06.03, n4) Kafelnikov 3145 (19.11.01; n4) Berdych 3070 (11.06.12, n7) 
Rafter 3065 (10.09.01, n4) Haas 3030 (19.08.02, n3) Grosjean 2865 (19.11.01, n6) Henman 2825 (13.09.04, n4) Gonzalez 2810 (21.05.07, n5) Enqvist 2693 (11.09.00, n6) 
Robredo 2645 (02.04.07, n6) Blake 2605 (29.01.07, n6) Verdasco 2560 (03.05.10, n9) Corretja 2475 (04.12.00, n8) Gaudio 2440 (16.05.05, n6) Youzhny 2440 (04.10.10, n8) 
Kiefer 2435 (21.02.00, n4) Costa 2385 (22.07.02, n6) Simon 2375 (06.07.09, n7) T Johansson 2365 (22.04.02, n8) Novak 2355 (21.10.02, n5) Tipsarevic 2315 (13.08.12, n8) 
Pioline 2307 (12.06.00, n6) Gasquet 2220 (09.07.07, n7) Monfils 2150 (22.08.11, n7) Melzer 2135 (25.04.11, n8) Cilic 2135 (19.04.10, n11) Baghdatis 2111 (25.09.06, n8) 
Fish 2110 (28.11.11, n8) Canas 2075 (13.06.05, n8) Ancic 2075 (05.02.07, n9) Clement 2025 (06.08.01, n11)

(for the year 2000 it's maybe not fully representative, esp. in the beginning of the year, because it was the first year with a new ranking system, there are always transition concerns in such cases and Agassi looks a little bit low to me)

[SUKTUEN]

very great post!!!!

[Litotes]

Yes, really great post! Thanks a lot!

"You must spread some reputation around before giving it to duong again"

[kenneth79]

Federer 8370

This is probably THE most dominant a position in tennis history since Laver at the end of 69. Yes I know they didnt have rankings at that time but Laver then held all 4 majors and had won even more of the second tier events than Fed did in 06!