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Old 07-18-2012, 12:32 PM   #1501
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

it's been great but it would be even greater if he won the US Open and/or finished the year at number 1

The number 1 will depend on really a few tournaments now :
there will be the period Olympics-Canada-Cinci-US Open,

and then the Basel-Bercy-WTF period,

with nearly only Shanghai in between, except that Djokovic will also play Beijing, which Roger will not play, which is an advantage in points for Djokovic.

Fed, Djokovic and Nadal are nearly equal in the Race now then the number 1 in the end of the year will be the best in these tournaments.

It will be so short, good surfaces for Roger if he's fit, and some results might depend on very few things like last year's US Open semifinal or the draw (there are more dangerous players this year than last year).

I think you've read the comments "Fed is not the best player in the world, it's still Djokovic" : what's true is that they're very tight and then it's logical that this comment is made, which shows that if Fed can stay number 1 in the end of the year, it will be even greater

Roger has said that he thinks last year's US Open could have been very different in the end and he could really have won it (I really think the same for last year, 2010 he looked less good imo), and I think he really wants to win it this year
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Old 07-18-2012, 12:45 PM   #1502
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

I'm pretty sure whoever wins the USO will finish YE#1, I know Fed got more points post-Wimby than Djokovic last year but I expect Djokovic to get more this time around, he'll play Shanghai for example.

Would be amazing if Fed could win the USO this year. It'll definitely be ok if he doesn't though, Wimby 2012 is going to keep me happy for a long time
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Old 07-18-2012, 01:25 PM   #1503
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

I think djokovic is defending something like 4160 points while Roger is defending 3990. So they are pretty close.

My guess is that it may come down to the WTF since there are 1500 points up for grabs.

Strictly speaking about poinst it would make more sense to skip Olympics and play Toronto but we know Roger wants that gold medal in singles so we can assume he'll be skipping Toronto.

I think the year ending #1 might be out of roger's hands simply because of the tournaments Roger might skip. Roger may skip Toronto, Shanghai and maybe Paris (as basel, paris and WTf are back to back whch is INSANE).

If djokovic plays Toronto, Shanghai and Paris, and Roger skips them, he'll have a shot at gaining 3000 points max over Roger.

I don't really know if the year end #1 is something Roger is really focusing on. We know he had the goal of gaining back #1 and winning slams as well as the gold medal in the olympics. My take is that if it is something he has his mind set to he'll do his best to achieve it. If not he might skip some masters and focus on Olympics, US Open, Basel and WTF.
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Old 07-18-2012, 02:30 PM   #1504
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

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Originally Posted by duarte_a View Post
I think the year ending #1 might be out of roger's hands simply because of the tournaments Roger might skip. Roger may skip Toronto, Shanghai and maybe Paris (as basel, paris and WTf are back to back whch is INSANE).

If djokovic plays Toronto, Shanghai and Paris, and Roger skips them, he'll have a shot at gaining 3000 points max over Roger.

I don't really know if the year end #1 is something Roger is really focusing on. We know he had the goal of gaining back #1 and winning slams as well as the gold medal in the olympics. My take is that if it is something he has his mind set to he'll do his best to achieve it. If not he might skip some masters and focus on Olympics, US Open, Basel and WTF.
considering how the rankings are, skipping and losing early are quite the same : the rankings reward when you go very far in the draw and especially win the tournament.

Then there's no problem at skipping one or two tournaments if anyway you would not be in good condition and above all if you do great in other tournaments. It can require skipping Shanghai for instance to be in great shape for Basel+Bercy+WTF, or it can require skipping Bercy to be great in the WTF, it all depends on your body and shape. Playing tournaments just to play them like Djokovic in Bercy last year doesn't earn you a lot rankings-wise.

Yes, as far as the rankings are concerned, it would be better to skip the Olympics and play Toronto than the opposite, and playing both might not be good for the body, but anyway none of those prevents anything.

The one who will be number 1 will be the one who wins most, the US Open being of course the most important one, but there are many important ones : the WTF and the 4 MS1000 tournaments as well, 4 ones being a lot, it will all be important tournaments to win, but anyway it's not really about taking part, it's about winning. I'm not sure the year-end-number 1 will be the winner of the US Open : there are too many other big tournaments in that period.

I'm sure he cherishes that goal to get that number 1 in the end of the year, I remember how he was happy after he defeated Murray in the WTF 2009 and was certain of the end-of-year number 1. But he doesn't have to make a choice between "do you prefer winning the US Open and not finishing the year as number 1 or the opposite ?" anyway.

Anyway, it will all be about a precise planning about how to take part but also how to be in good shape for these tournaments.
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Old 07-18-2012, 02:51 PM   #1505
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Whitout doing calculations at a guess I think if he wins the Olympycs and playes not badly in Canada if he goes there, after a F in Ciccinnati, final or win at USO. I think he's very motivated now to win it. And defending Basel and the WTF playng a F at Paris Bercy he can finish #1.

Djokovic has to share the other titles with Nadal, Murray, Tsonga, Berdych and Ferrer - And why not some unexpected follower - MAYBE DIMITROV and all should be easier.
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Old 07-18-2012, 03:22 PM   #1506
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

I enjoy the week which is Roger in NO.1!!!
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Old 07-18-2012, 08:42 PM   #1507
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

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Originally Posted by Roamed View Post
I'm pretty sure whoever wins the USO will finish YE#1
where I follow you is that I think the next period will be very important for the confidence and condition much what will happen later.

I even have the feeling that next 3 tournaments (Olympics+Canada+Cinci) will be especially important for Djokovic's confidence, which I think is more fragile than Roger's.
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Old 07-19-2012, 12:34 AM   #1508
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Roger leads the race and that's all we need to know. USO will be crucial but a win in Cincy might help him soften an eventual loss at the USO. Another early exit for either of the top 2 would also be good . Djokovic is not at his best in defending titles and is nowhere near his 2011 best. Roger certainly has a chance.
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Old 07-19-2012, 10:10 AM   #1509
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Who cares if he finishes year at #1. I want him to stay fit, so we can see him a couple more years. He won Wimbledon, he broke Sampras's record. From now on the rest will be like cherry on the top of the cake
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Old 07-19-2012, 04:28 PM   #1510
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

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Who cares if he finishes year at #1. I want him to stay fit, so we can see him a couple more years. He won Wimbledon, he broke Sampras's record. From now on the rest will be like cherry on the top of the cake
Ok- this is over all. If he uses his 70-80% potencial he can continue for othe 10 yers into the top 10 but he has proved he's hungry to big challenges and gratifications to us but as well to him like he finishes #1 and many other triumphs.
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Old 07-19-2012, 04:40 PM   #1511
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

I have come around to Duong's POV. Top wish is for another USO title. Probably the YE#1 will follow
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Old 07-19-2012, 08:29 PM   #1512
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

Well, it's lots of playing, but after January, he doesn't need to do nearly as much. He could play 4 tournaments a year (all the slams), etc.

I guess the question for Roger is, is he willing to push just one more time?
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Old 07-19-2012, 09:37 PM   #1513
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Well, it's lots of playing, but after January, he doesn't need to do nearly as much. He could play 4 tournaments a year (all the slams), etc.

I guess the question for Roger is, is he willing to push just one more time?
and he has the Davis cup play-off in the Netherlands, and the exhibitions in south America in november ; but well I don't think he will play in Shanghai
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Old 07-20-2012, 07:55 AM   #1514
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Default Re: Federer's ranking discussion

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Who cares if he finishes year at #1. I want him to stay fit, so we can see him a couple more years. He won Wimbledon, he broke Sampras's record. From now on the rest will be like cherry on the top of the cake
well as a fan of roger... of cos i would care if he finishes the year at #1...! or rather i would care for ANY tournaments he plays in and definitely hope he can win them all...! i'm sure roger cares too... and that's what is driving roger's motivation to continue to win more titles... so as a fan.... it keeps me motivated too to watch him play....

having said that... now that he has achieved the #1 record... i think it makes it very much easier to accept any future losses... like u say... any new trophies are just cherries on top of the cake.... but it'll always be satisfying to have the cake and eat it all up....


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Old 07-20-2012, 09:53 AM   #1515
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now that he has achieved the #1 record... i think it makes it very much easier to accept any future losses...
as far as the rankings are concerned, in the beginning of the second half of 2011, I was mostly concerned about him not dropping of the top-4 because it would have made draws more difficult.

Now he has a great packet of points to protect him and it's great

but with the one-year ranking system you can't allow too long a time with bad results, then anyway it's great as long as he wins some tournaments once in a time

But it's surely his final opportunity to the year-end number 1
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