[Timotheus]

Can't blame them

FC Den Bosch - De Graafschap (10-05)
5/10 De Graafschap +0.25 @ 1.95 (SBO)
Will keep it short because I'm a bit busy, but an early bet for me here. De Graafschap looked very good this weekend in their 3-5 win over ADO and really got a morale boost out of that match. Quality wise they are still well above Den Bosch I reckon and the hosts didn't impress me that much lately. They had a hard fought win over Go Ahead Eagles in the previous round and the home record of 8-5-4 they had in the league is just fairly average. To me this is a very equal match with a DNB line being much more suitable.

[Timotheus]

Willem II - Sparta
5/10 Willlem II -0.25 @ 1.92 (IBC)
In this first play-off leg Willem II are expecting a massive home support. Both sides relegated are used to playing Eredivisie and are a big club for this league, making this a really big match-up. The hosts are without regular midfielder Mulder and squad player Bakx and don't have a lot of worries going into this match. They were unbeaten in the last 9 league games and their last home loss was in november last year. Sparta have no absentees today and can also count on a good support, with 800 fans travelling with them. They were unbeaten in the last 6 league games, but their quality of play has been quite poor. Their away performances have been really sloppy and their last win was back in March despite playing several "easy" matches. The home advantage is huge and I really see this as a big factor in these play-offs. Willem II have been unbeatable at home for months now and have simply been playing better lately. For me a -0.5 line would better suit this match.

[Timotheus]

De Graafschap 0-0 FT, bet half won
Willem II 2-1 FT, bet won

Both deserved results and finally some winners after a poor run..

[Timotheus]

De Graafschap - FC Den Bosch
5/10 De Graafschap -0.5 @ 1.95 (IBC)
Neither side managed to impress in the first leg, which finished 0-0. I was surprised to see De Graafschap as an underdog in that first encounter and I'm just as surprised seeing these odds on the -0.5 line today. The game of last Thursday clearly was a set up for today. De Graafschap were very passive and clearly played for a draw, while Den Bosch tried to make the play but simply failed doing so. I really don't rate the visitors highly, even though they do managed to achieve a good away record in the league, losing just 4 out of 17 away games. Today they are without their biggest talent Kilic. The youngster just got back from a long term injury and got badly injured again in the first leg and his creativity will surely be missed, even though they already managed to play the biggest part of the season without him. Regular goalkeeer Begois is also possiblyout after he got injured during the warm-up of the first leg but I don't have the line-ups yet. For De Graafschap it's do or die time here today. They must avoid relegation at all costs and need a win after that first 0-0. They welcome back their striker Poepon after a suspension and he will be paired up with in form De Leeuw up front, which has been working really well lately. S/r left back Evers is suspended and because regular Fränkel is also still out they will need to improvise a bit on that position. Furthermore regular attacking midfielder and squad players Badibanga and Breinburg will also be absent, but I only rate the absence of El Hassnaoui as a real loss. With Anco Jansen they have a good replacement however. He scored 10 goals in the first season half in the Jupiler League including a goal against today;s opponent. I expect the hosts to come out gun blazing today and when they do so they have quite a good team, certainly a lot better than a team as Den Bosch. 1.7 was really the lowest I would have expected here.

Match starts 12:30

[Timotheus]

7.5/10 De Graafschap - Den Bosch Over 2.5 @ 1.89 (1-1). De Graafschap will relegate if they don't win. Going all out, huge risks. Would be a small miracle if there are no more goals here. Hopefully the hosts make it to get the pre match bet as well (DeGraafschap -0.5)

[Timotheus]

bet lost. Really horrible offensive at the end..they looked so scared...unreal. Still came close to scoring a couple of times, but the tactic was horrible

[Timotheus]

Sparta - Willem II 5/10 Over 2.5 @ 1.9 (1-1)

[Timotheus]

1-1 FT bet lost. 2 amazing misses, 1 clearance from the line, 1 empty net missed (when GK was up front) and a ref blowing the final whistle when a Willem II player was walking towards the empty goal with no opponent at all on the attackig half..Unreal